The For the People Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018

Transcription

1 The For the People Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 Key findings from a nationwide survey among 1,000 likely mid-term voters Conducted August 30 to September 5, 2018, for the Center for American Progress Action Fund

2 The current state of play: Democrats lead in a generic congressional race as undecided voters move away from Trump. In the November election for representative in the U.S. Congress for your district, are you more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? 48% +11 Undecided voters: 53% Trump voters, 35% Clinton voters 44% approve of Trump, 56% disapprove of Trump 17% 37% 15% Definitely Definitely 31% 22% 15% Vote for Democrat Vote for Republican Undecided 2

3 The current state of play: Democrats also have a voting enthusiasm advantage driven by liberal and white Democrats. Proportions saying they are extremely enthusiastic and motivated to vote in this year s elections for Congress and other offices All voters 64% Vote Democrat 72% Vote Republican 65% Clinton voters 71% Trump voters 60% Liberal Democrats 77% Non-liberal Democrats 60% White Democrats 74% Democrats of color 60% Independents 48% Republicans 62% 3

4 Each party is seen as having a clear agenda by its own supporters, not others. Do you think Republicans/Democrats have a clear agenda of what they want to do if they win the majority in Congress? Yes, Democrats have a clear agenda No, Democrats do not have a clear agenda Yes, Republicans have a clear agenda No, Republicans do not have a clear agenda 76% 73% 70% 65% 71% 67% 51% 49% 52% 48% 24% 27% 30% 35% 29% 33% All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided 4

5 Healthcare is seen as the leading edge of the Democratic agenda. What do you think the agenda of the Democrats will be if they win the majority in Congress? Volunteered impressions of what the Democratic agenda will be if they win the majority in Congress. Healthcare, protect Obamacare 25% Immigration, will work on reforming immigration laws 14% Impeach Trump 9% Reverse everything Trump has done, fix all the bad deals Trump has made 8% Improve the economy 7% 5

6 And affordable healthcare is the most frequently volunteered answer on what a party should stand for to be For the People. If a political party wanted to show that it is truly For the People, what would it do or stand for? Volunteered impressions of what a political party that is FOR THE PEOPLE will focus on. All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided Healthcare, affordable healthcare 26% 32% 21% 19% Concern for the people, all people, people of color Lower taxes, cut taxes for the middle class 21% 21% 20% 26% 16% 12% 24% 10% Jobs/employment 12% 7% 17% 14% Education, better schools 10% 13% 6% 12% 6

7 In an election about who is For the People, Democrats have a clear advantage. Which party do you think is more likely to be FOR THE PEOPLE? 91% Democrats much more Democrats a little more Republicans a little more Republicans much more Neither 24% 76% 51% 26% 52% 17% 31% 12% 34% 19% 18% 67% 50% 8% 1% 4% 18% 24% 13% 7% 4% All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided 6% 31% 17% 7

8 The Republicans Better Off Now agenda does little to broaden the GOP s appeal. What is your reaction to hearing that Republicans have a BETTER OFF NOW agenda that is focused on continuing to work with President Trump to improve America s economy by lowering taxes and reducing job-killing regulations? Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Neutral 83% 71% 16% 27% 41% 40% 17% 11% 24% 29% 19% 18% 11% 8% 3% 55% 56% 11% 6% 4% 43% 32% 25% 21% 15% 11% 10% All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided 8

9 The Democrats For the People agenda solidifies Democratic voters and appeals to others. What is your reaction to hearing that the Democrats have a FOR THE PEOPLE agenda that is focused on lowering healthcare costs, raising wages, and cleaning up corruption? 88% Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Neutral 61% 23% 38% 23% 10% 13% 23% 64% 16% 9% 3% 18% 33% 21% 34% 17% 15% 19% 10% 11% 5% All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided 29% 54% 53% 32% 9

10 The appeal of a For the People Democratic candidate reaches beyond the Democratic base. If the Democratic candidate for Congress supports a FOR THE PEOPLE agenda that is focused on lowering healthcare costs, raising wages, and cleaning up corruption, would this make you much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, somewhat less favorable, or much less favorable to this Democratic candidate? 68% 93% 27% Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Neutral 24% of voters find a For the People Democratic candidate appealing but are not currently voting Democratic. 68% 32% 36% 15% 17% 7% 8% 65% 32% 4% 4% 11% 47% 34% 22% 18% 21% 5% All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided 37% 29% 10% 7% 3% 10

11 Proposals that crack down on drug and health insurance companies have strong appeal. Stop drug companies from dramatically increasing prices and require them to release data to justify price increases Proportions favorable toward each proposal Democrats have made to lower healthcare costs. Very favorable 63% Somewhat favorable 23% 86% VERY Favorable FTP Targets Undecided 66% 57% Strengthen laws that stop insurance companies from charging higher premiums to people with preexisting conditions, women, and age % 22% 83% 63% 56% Give Medicare authority to negotiate directly with drug companies for lowest drug prices 54% 26% 80% 55% 42% Eliminate the tax breaks that subsidize the television advertising of big drug companies 50% 26% 76% 48% 45% Allow Americans to import lower-cost prescription drugs from Canada 44% 27% 71% 41% 33% Create competition for private insurance by offering a gov t-sponsored public option for health insurance 37% 24% 61% 31% 25% 11

12 Equal pay for women is one of several strong proposals to address the need for higher wages. Proportions favorable toward each proposal Democrats have made to raise wages. Expand job-training and apprenticeship programs and ensure all Americans can access these programs when they need them Very favorable 49% Somewhat favorable 32% 81% VERY Favorable FTP Targets Undecided 50% 43% Create good-paying jobs through a commitment to building, repairing, and modernizing American s bridges, tunnels, and transit 51% 29% 80% 48% 43% Restore and strengthen overtime protections by requiring employers to pay overtime to employees making less than $50K a year 53% 25% 78% 52% 44% Strengthen laws requiring equal pay for women, like prohibiting employers from paying someone less for a job based on salary history Women 61% 55% 22% 77% 56% 51% Rebuild power/bargaining for workers by giving them a real seat at the table so they can negotiate for higher wages on equal footing with their employers 44% 29% 73% 41% 33% Raise national minimum wage to $15 and index to cost of living 41% 21% 62% 34% 29% 12

13 Banning taxpayer funding of harassment settlements is one of several strong proposals on corruption. Ban use of taxpayer money to pay for sexual harassment settlements in lawsuits against members of Congress Require dark money orgs that spend unlimited amounts influencing elections to identify the individuals/corps that provide their funding Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethics violations rather than having members of Congress police themselves Ban lobbyists from raising money for candidates, to reduce the ability of lobbyists to buy access and influence Proportions favorable toward each proposal Democrats have made to address corruption. Very favorable 58% 56% 54% 71% Somewhat favorable 19% 21% 23% 14% 77% 77% 77% 85% VERY Favorable FTP Targets Undecided 73% 66% 57% 52% 56% 52% 53% 50% Ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists after leaving office 51% 22% 73% 51% 46% Require candidates for federal office, including Congress, to disclose their tax returns 54% 18% 72% 54% 49% Have Congress conduct more oversight of Trump administration, to make sure Congress serves as a check and balance 48% 15% 63% 40% 43% 13

14 And across audiences, healthcare tops the list of For the People for priorities. Which will be the most important to you when it comes time to vote? Lowering the cost of healthcare Cleaning up corruption Raising wages All voters 49% 33% 18% Democratic voters 47% 30% 23% Republican voters 49% 37% 14% Undecided voters 54% 32% 14% FTP targets 56% 27% 17% Liberal Democrats 52% 29% 19% Non-liberal Democrats 46% 29% 25% White Democrats 56% 28% 16% Democrats of color 39% 30% 31% Independents 44% 39% 17% Republicans 49% 36% 15% 14

15 And when all 18 proposals are stacked against each other, the healthcare proposals are highlighted as key priorities. Proportions who choose each in their top five most important priorities. Stop drug companies from dramatically increasing prices Strengthen laws that stop insurance companies from charging higher premiums Create jobs through modernizing infrastructure Ban use of taxpayer money for sexual harassment settlements Give Medicare authority to negotiate for low drug prices Raise national minimum wage to $15 and index to cost of living Expand job training and apprenticeship programs and ensure access for all Americans Strengthen laws requiring equal pay for women Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethical violations by members of Congress 27% 31% 30% 29% 34% 33% 37% 36% 42% 46% women 50+, postgrad 42% Millennials 50% Age % undecided voters, 49% FTP targets 45% African American, 44% Hispanic, 41% Millennials 38% African American, 47% Hispanic, 37% Millennials 39% women under 50, 37% African Americans 15

16 Democrats, Republicans, and undecided voters agree and disagree on various priorities. Stop drug companies from dramatically increasing prices Strengthen laws that stop insurance companies from charging higher premiums Give Medicare authority to negotiate for low drug prices Allow Americans to import lower-cost drugs from Canada Offer a public option for health insurance for all ages Eliminate tax breaks for the TV ads of drug companies Create jobs through modernizing infrastructure Raise national minimum wage to $15 Expand job-training and apprenticeship programs Strengthen laws requiring equal pay for women Restore and strengthen overtime protections Rebuild power/bargaining for workers Ban use of taxpayer money for sexual harassment settlements Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethics violations Have Congress conduct more oversight of Trump admin 5% Require candidates to disclose their tax returns Ban lobbyists from raising money for candidates Ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists Require dark money orgs to disclose what they fund Proportions choosing each in their top five most important priorities. Democrat voters Republican voters Undecided 19% 16% 15% 18% 21% 36% 46% 34% 37% 38% 30% 34% 35% 25% 30% 25% 24% 27% 34% 35% 41% 30% 39% 30% 24% 32% 20% 26% 36% 19% 20%20% 17% 16% 19% 44% 23% 46% 24% 26% 29% 15% 39% 13% 18% 25% 15% 20% 24% 11% 22% 26% 14% 18% 20% 54% 16

17 With the base, liberal and non-liberal Democrats differ in their priorities. Stop drug companies from dramatically increasing prices Strengthen laws that stop insurance companies from charging higher premiums Give Medicare authority to negotiate for low drug prices Allow Americans to import lower-cost drugs from Canada Proportions choosing each in their top five most important priorities. Eliminate tax breaks for the TV ads of drug companies Offer a public option for health insurance for all ages Create jobs through modernizing infrastructure Raise national minimum wage to $15 Expand job-training and apprenticeship programs Strengthen laws requiring equal pay for women Restore and strengthen overtime protections Rebuild power/bargaining for workers Ban use of taxpayer money for sexual harassment settlements Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethics violations Have Congress conduct more oversight of Trump admin Require candidates to disclose their tax returns Ban lobbyists from raising money for candidates Ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists Require dark money orgs to disclose what they fund 11% 11% Liberal Democrats 16% 21% 18% 19% 13% 17% 13% 19% 21% 18% 20% 19% 29% 22% 29% 19% 27% 20% 28% 18% 28% Non-liberal Democrats 35% 35% 42% 30% 36% 35% 35% 38% 41% 23% 39% 39% 35% 42% Gap: Lib Non-lib 39%

18 After voters learn more about For the People policies, Democrats extend their lead by 11 points. In the November election for representative in the U.S. Congress for your district, are you more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? 17% 31% Definitely for Democrat Probably/leaning for Democrat Probably/leaning for Republican Definitely for Republican Completely undecided % 37% 15% 22% Initial vote 53% 18% 35% 31% 14% 15% 16% 17% Informed vote Initial Dem Advantage Final Dem Advantage Change Liberal Democrats Non-liberal Democrats Independents Republicans Men/ Men/ Women/ Women/ White African American Hispanic Men/non-college Men/college Women/non-college Women/college Trump voters/not strong approve

19 And those who intend to vote for Democrats become more enthusiastic about voting. Proportions saying they are extremely enthusiastic and motivated to vote in this year s elections for Congress and other offices All voters Trump voters Clinton voters Democrat voters Republican voters Undecided voters Liberal Democrats Non-liberal Democrats White Democrats Democrats of color Independents Republicans Age Age Age Age % 35% 48% 48% 55% 57% Enthusiasm Initial Informed 63% 67% 60% 60% 71% 74% 72% 78% 64% 65% 77% 81% 60% 68% 74% 78% 60% 70% 62% 63% 61% 60% 64% 66% 77% 78% Change

20 No longer taking corporate or lobbyist money is more important than accessibility to showing the Democratic Party is truly for the people. Does each step Democrats in Congress might take make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, or not more likely to think that Democrats are truly for the people? If Democrats in Congress stop accepting money from lobbyists If Democrats in Congress refuse to accept any money from corporate PACs If Democrats in Congress hold at least one town hall meeting with their constituents every month If Democrats in Congress make their daily schedules public so people can know who they are meeting with Much More Likely Somewhat More Likely Not More Likely 49% 31% 20% 47% 31% 22% 35% 33% 32% 34% 34% 32% 20

21 Most voters, including most of those intending to vote Democratic, are not ready for Democrats to begin impeachment if they win in November. Which of the following statements about impeachment comes closest to your own point of view? If the Democrats win the majority, they should begin impeachment proceedings If the Democrats win the majority, they should not begin impeachment proceedings It is too early to say, Democrats need to wait for Mueller to complete his investigation All Voters Intended Democratic Voters Liberal Democrats Non-liberal Democrats 33% 26% 29% 40% 46% 48% 45% 45% 41% 14% 7% 26% 21