Bruce Mehlman Nov. 6, 2014, 6:00am WHAT HAPPENED Election Analysis

Transcription

1 Bruce Mehlman Nov. 6, 2014, 6:00am WHAT HAPPENED 2014 Election Analysis

2 Summary of 2014 Election Outcomes

3 2 SUMMARY U.S. HOUSE U.S. SENATE GOVERNORS GOP + 16* GOP + 8* GOP th Congress 114 th Congress GOP DEM *13 races still too-close-to-call (numbers reflect current leaders) 113 th Congress 114 th Congress GOP DEM IND 2 2 *Run-Off Pending in LA (Dec. 6) GOP DEM ~47% of Dem losses in harderto-hold Romney seats (2012 ticket-splitters) Obama Admin. missteps demotivated Dems & angered Independents Outside GOP groups swamped Dems in final spending push Republicans won Republican seats in impossible battle field for Dems High # Dem. retirements + strong GOP candidates Disgust (with Washington & WH) defeated Fear (of GOP agenda) Economic anxiety hurt some incumbents in red & blue states Missteps, poor performance undermined other Governors. Extreme partisan-gop states proved hard to tip.

4 Voters Want Change (4 of last 5 Elections) 3 And They re Not Getting It DEMs captured House & Senate DEMs captured White House & 60 in Senate GOP re-captured House GOP re-captured Senate

5 Source: 2014 National Exit Polls 4 Voters #1 Issue Prefer GOP 54% Prefer DEM 44% What is the Most Important Issue Facing the U.S.? Prefer GOP 73% Prefer DEM 25% Illegal Immigration 14% Foreign Policy 13% Economy 45% Prefer GOP 49% Prefer DEM 49% Health Care 25% Prefer DEM 60% Prefer GOP 38%

6 SENATE: Best GOP Outcome Since Net GOP Change in Senate Seats Not counting Louisiana 12 Net Seats Won or Lost

7 6 HOUSE: Biggest GOP Majority Since Number of Republicans in the House of Representatives (1930) 246 (1948) *13 races not decided, but based on current leaders 250* (2015)

8 7 GOVERNORSHIPS: Big GOP Night Incumbent Survived Open Seat Held Tossup STATE Open Seat Lost Incumbent Defeated Alaska Leading Colorado Connecticut Florida Georgia Illinois Kansas Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Pennsylvania Rhode Island Wisconsin

9 WHY? Understanding the 2014 Election Outcome

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11 8 Republicans Won Republican Seats State Obama 2008 Obama 2012 Cook PVI (Partisan Voter Index, 2014) IA 54% 52% D+1 NH 54% 52% D+1 CO 53.7% 51.5% D+1 NC 49.7% 48.4% R+3 GA 47% 45.5% R+6 MT 47% 41.7% R+7 AK 37.9% 40.8% R+12 LA 39.9% 40.6% R+12 SD 44.8% 39.9% R+10 KS 41.7% 38% R+12 KY 41.2% 37.8% R+13 AR 38.9% 36.9% R+14 WV 42.6% 35.5% R Outcome GOP Pick Up DEM Hold GOP Pick Up GOP Pick Up GOP Hold GOP Pick Up GOP Pick Up Run-Off Dec. 6 GOP Pick Up GOP Hold GOP Hold GOP Pick Up GOP Pick Up

12 9 GOP Avoided Self-Destructing Candidates New & Improved GOP: Witch-Free Since 2010!

13 Demography Was Destiny - Again Mid-term Electorate Older, Whiter, Right-er Share of Electorate Demographic Share to Dems % 72% 75% WHITE 37% 39% 38% 11% 13% 12% BLACK 89% 93% 89% 8% 10% 8% HISPANIC 60% 71% 63% 12% 19% 13% Age % 60% 54% 21% 16% 22% Age % 44% 42% 48% 47% 49% MEN 45% 45% 42% 52% 53% 51% WOMEN 51% 55% 52% 42% 35% 37% CONSERVATIVE 13% 17% 13% Source 2010: Source 2012: Source 2014: 10

14 Sources: Real Clear Politics (WT); WSJ/NBC (economy); 2014 Exit Polls (terrorism) 11 Anxiety Pervaded Few Feel Confident 66% 64% 72% Think U.S. is on the Wrong Track Dissatisfied with the state of U.S. economy Worried about terrorist attack on U.S. soil Following the Long Summer of Our Discontent

15 12 Dems Owned the President Make no mistake my policies are on the ballot, every single one -- President Obama 10/2/14

16 Source: Toss-Ups as rated by the Cook Political Report in the final pre-election analysis 13 Senate Races Again National Percent of Toss Up Seats Won by Single Party % 78% 67% 89% 89% 80% 71% 80% 89% Dems won 6 of 7 Dems won 7 of 9 GOP won 6 of 9 GOP won 8 of 9 Dems won 8 of 9 Dems won 8 of 10 Dems won 5 of 7 Dems won 8 of 10 GOP won 8 of 9* * LA not decided, will be the 10 th

17 Source: 14 Not Really An Issue of Money Total Pro-GOP spending $1.75B Total Pro-DEM spending $1.64B Pro-GOP $523.9M $335.7M $514.5M House Candidates Senate Candidates Party Committees $329M Outside Groups Pro-DEM $417.4M $295.5M $585.5M $314.6M But money is not a message

18 14 Voters Tuned Out, Turned Off Fewer Certain to Vote After 2014 s 907,900 Ads Republicans Democrats Independents Source: Gallup, Nov Perhaps Because No One Was FOR Anything The All-Negative Narratives of 2014 Obama stinks. Obamacare stinks. Government stinks, cannot protect us from ebola or ISIS or help veterans. Economy stinks due to Dems tax & spend agenda. GOP hates women, will ban contraception. GOP hates seniors, will shred safety net. GOP loves big biz, sending jobs abroad. GOP hates students, raising student debt.

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20 Presidential Approval Really Matters HOUSE % SENATE % * -30 * 13 races not officially called but included Presidential Approval, By Election 58% 49% 46% 44% 42% 42% 38% * -6 * LA run off Dec. 6, not included 16

21 17 GOP Picked Off Ds in R Seats Democrats in Districts Won by GOP Presidential Contender Dems in seats won by Bush in 2004 Dems in seats won by McCain in 2008 ~47% of GOP gains = Ds in Romney seats But Any More Room to Grow?!

22 Independents Stayed Republican GOP DEM 60% 55% 50% 49% 48% 57% 52% 56% 50% 54% 45% 40% 35% 39% 44% 37% 45% 42% 30% Independents as a share of all voters % 26% 29% 29% 29% 28% 18

23 GOP Wave, Not Anti-Incumbent Year Number of Incumbents Defeated In the House & Senate, by election Avg. = * 28 GOP Incumbents Did Just Fine Lost Primary Lost General Source: 19

24 Persistent Questions

25 Source: National Journal 2013 Vote Ratings 20 Stick to Principles What Do Voters Want? If Compromisers Are Really Sought % 50% Compromise More Compromise More 42% 42% Stick to Principles Source: WSJ/NBC Most Conservative Senators Why Toss-Out the Moderates? Middle Most Liberal Senators 1 Rissch 2 Enzi 40 Alexander 41 Graham 42 Blunt 43 McCain 44 Murkowski 45 Collins 46 Manchin 47 Pryor 48 Donnelly 49 Hagan 50 Heitkamp 51 McCaskill 52 Begich 53 Tester 54 Warner 55 Baucus 56 Landrieu 57 King 58 Casey 58 Heinrich 60 Bennett 99 Murphy 99 Schatz Going, Going, Gone #47 Mark Pryor #49 Kay Hagan #52 Mark Begich #55 Max Baucus (appointed) #56 Mary Landrieu

26 Sources: WSJ (10/29/14); Clerk of the House 21 Can New GOP Majorities Govern? Can Senate Resume Regular Order? Senate Amendments Offered over past 12 months: 1,952 GOP DEM 1, Can House Control Tea Party? Vote (Date) GOP defections from Speaker Boehner for Speaker (1/3/13) -12 Sept. 14 CR (9/17/14) -53 Farm Bill (6/20/13) -62 Ryan-Murray Budget (12/11/13) -62 Obama ISIS Resolution (9/17/14) -71 Flood Insurance (3/4/14) -86 Amendments Actually Voted On: 19 Violence Against Women Act (2/28/13) -138 Am. Taxpayer Relief Act (1/1/13) -151 Hurricane Sandy Relief (1/15/13) -179

27 22 Is the Economy Strong? Many Measures Recovered Strongly in Why Didn t Democrats Get More Credit? down 25.3% (7.9% to 5.9%) up 38.3% up 17.8% (73.8 to 86.9) up 27% up 1.4% down 55.6% Unemployment Rate S&P 500 Index Consumer Confidence Home Prices Manufacturing Employment Fed l Deficit The middle class is getting killed. -Joe Biden 10/16/2014

28 Source: Kantar Media for CPI 23 Are Parties Still Relevant? 2014 Ad Spending (Parties vs. Outside Groups) Races Where Outside Groups Outspent Campaigns $ $ Parties Outside Groups

29 Who Were 2014 s Biggest Winners? 1. Mitch McConnell: Overcomes $30M in attacks while leading party to new Majority. 2. Keystone XL: Fillibuster-proof majority in support next Congress. 3. U.S. Chamber: Defeats Tea Party in 20+ primaries to ensure pro-business GOP candidates who can win. 4. John Boehner: Powers GOP to biggest House majority since Hoover Administration. 5. Broadcasters: Enjoyed $2.4B spent on more than 909,000 TV ads. 6. Women in Congress: More than 100 serving for the first time in U.S. history Ed Gillespie: Brilliant campaign shocks pollsters & 2016 WH hopeful Warner Richmond calling if recount fails. 24

30 25 Who Were 2014 s Biggest Losers? 1. IL, MA & MD Democratic Parties: Really?! 3-1 registration advantages insufficient. 2. War on Women: Tired 2012 narrative boomerangs against Dems. 3. Data-Driven GOTV: Technology is a tool, not a strategy or reason to vote. 4. White House: Lost ~36% of Dem Senate seats & ~26% of Dem House seats since taking office. 5. Big Tent Politics: DEMs keep doing worse among whites & men while GOP keeps falling with minorities.

31 Do We Spend Too Much on Elections? 2014 Elections Bicycles Guns & Ammo Lawncare Halloween Movies Dry Cleaning Video Games Soda Lottery Tickets $3.7B $4.8B $6B $6.4B $7.4B $10.9B $11.7B Americans Annual Spending $20.5B $73.9B $78B $- $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 Sources: Center for Responsive Politics; Bureau of Economic Analysis (bicycles); Time Magazine (guns); Lawn Institute; NRF (Halloween); WSJ (Movies); WSJ; (dry cleaning) Forbes (video games); Kaiser Permanente (soda); NAASPL 26

32 What s Next?

33 How Lame? 27 Must Do Maybe Very Unlikely Continuing Resolution ( CR ) to fund government after Dec. 11 and avoid a shut-down Judicial Nominees & New A.G. Dems want to confirm as many nominees as possible Tax Extenders Some or all 55 tax incentives expired last Dec. 31, 2013 National Defense Authorization Act Setting defense priorities, passed 53 years in a row Terrorism Re-Insurance Act Expires Dec. 31, 2014 absent renewal Internet Tax Freedom Act / MFA Expires Dec. 11, 2014 absent extension STELA (Satellite TV) Expires Dec. 31, 2014 absent renewal Authorization of Military Force Specific support for / limits on military action against ISIS Spending Approps bills to fund government in FY 15 instead of CR SGR (Doc Fix) Expires 3/31/15, cheaper to address now Cyber bills to improve public-private information sharing VA Reform to fix myriad problems over health care cost & quality at the Veterans Administration Border Security / Funding to address the crisis on the border Anti-Inversion Bill to undermine tax mitigation by business Intelligence Authorization to address NSA / Snowden activities & move on Trade Promotion Authority to facilitate exports through good trade deals Major Executive Order on Immigration in December?

34 Why 2015 Will Be Consequential 28 ACTION-FORCING EVENTS & DEADLINES Budget Expires: 12/11/14 SMALL WINDOW BEFORE SILLY SEASON Tax Extenders Expired: 1/1/14 Big Cuts Starting: 3/31/15 Debt Ceiling Reached: Summer Highway Funding Ends: 5/15/15 SENATE 2016 Patriot Act Sec. 215 Expires: May 10 SWING SEATS IN PLAY Ex-Im Bank Funding Ends: 6/30/15

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