Congressional Update: Numbers, Nuances and Where Congress Stands. Agenda. The New Congress by the Numbers

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1 Congressional Update: Numbers, Nuances and Where Congress Stands Julia Martin, Esq. Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC Fall Forum 2014 Agenda The new Congress by the numbers What has the 113 th Congress accomplished? Predictions for lame duck session Outlook for the 114 th Congress Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 2 The New Congress by the Numbers Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 3 1

2 Senate: 113 th Congress Democrats Republicans Independents Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 4 Senate: 114 th Congress Democrats Republicans Independents TBD Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 5 The Midterm Curse President s party historically takes a hit in midterm elections Loss/Gain for President s Party Senate Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 6 2

3 Why such a big shift in the Senate? Large number of Democrats retiring: Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) Sen. John Walsh (D-MT) who live in increasingly Republican States (though Iowa went for Pres. Obama in 2012) And some surprising losses: Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) to Thom Tillis Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) to Tom Cotton Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) to Cory Gardner 7 for largely the same reason Why does it matter? If Republicans control both chambers, stronger negotiating position against President Obama on: Repeal/replacement of health care law Immigration Federal funding generally Moving away from sequestration? Education Including: gainful employment/for-profit colleges, student loans/aid, ESEA, charters, etc. Senate already a highly contentious body where some procedures require 60+ votes Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 8 Why does it matter? Imagine planning a party and inviting 20 friends. Nine of them want pepperoni pizza and 11 want cheese. So you all decide to cancel the whole party. That s how the United States Senate works. Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 9 3

4 House: 113 th Congress Democrats Republicans Vacant Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 10 House: 114 th Congress Democrats Republicans TBD Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 11 The Midterm Curse Loss/Gain for President s Party House of Representatives Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC

5 Why does it matter? Continued partisanship between and within parties (especially between Republicans) Straight majority still most important in House (but some efforts require 2/3) Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 13 New Congress already at odds with popular opinion? Voted in overwhelmingly conservative House and Senate Many governorships changed hands to Republicans BUT Voters in CO, TN, and ND rejected fetal personhood amendments OR and DC legalized recreational marijuana possession/use AK, AR, IL, NE, and SD increased minimum wage Voters in WA passed gun background check bill Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 14 New Congress already at odds with popular opinion? Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 15 5

6 New Congress already at odds with popular opinion? Why the disparity? Many self-identified Democrats voted for Republicans President s unpopularity a liability for many Democrats Sign that Republicans going back toward mainstream? Former Presidential candidate Mitt Romney calls it a victory for big tent Republicans What will it mean for this Congress? Lack of conservative mandate? Some more mainstream/moderate legislation But also some confusion about what voters 16 want/find important What has the 113 th Congress Accomplished? Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 17 Artifacts Discovered Buried In Washington D.C. Suggest Humans Once Passed Laws There Sep 18, 2014 [E]vidence points to an extraordinary yet apparently common ritual in which early leaders who held opposing viewpoints engaged in a standardized routine of communicating, offering mutual concessions, and then moving together on an idea called an agreement that occupied some sort of middle ground between their two initial visions researchers said that the complete lack of any relics from more recent years confirmed that the practice seems to have died out suddenly Brustein & and Manasevit, without PLLC any explanation. Archaeologists say the mysterious lawmaking civilization thrived in this region for generations before dying off suddenly. 6

7 What has Congress Done Lately? Before recessing for midterm elections, 113 th Congress had passed 163 bills Least of any Congress (112 th : 283; 111 th : 383) 18 are bills to rename Post Offices or federal courthouses Includes: A limited number of appropriations bills A very limited number of non-controversial pieces of education reauthorization legislation WIA CCDBG Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 19 Predictions for Lame Duck Session 20 Still on the to-do list Full-year appropriations for FY 2015 Current CR expires December 11th Homeland Security issues? Syria/ISIS Ebola outbreak Immigration? HEA reauthorization? Student loans? Focus continues to be on last-minute, must-pass legislation Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 21 7

8 How does election change this? Not much! Republicans have more incentive to wait until January to craft substantive policy/spending legislation Likely to have a short session in November/December All optional legislation will be delayed until new Congress Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 22 Appropriations FY 2015 Sen. McConnell has pledged no more government shutdowns As of November 5 th, House and Senate appropriators working on full-year wrap-up Omnibus appropriations bill for remainder of FY 2015 CR expires December 11 th Want to get Omnibus done by end of December Generally looking to find common ground between House and Senate based on agreed-to budget caps Means more or less continuation of current funding, no significant cuts If CR cut continued over full year, would be 0.28% cut total But possible objection from Republican lawmakers, 23 especially in light of electoral victory What happens to legislation at the end of a Congress? Bills die Must be reintroduced the next session Process starts from beginning (e.g., must go to Committee even if it has been passed through one chamber) But legacy /footprint of early versions leaves its mark 24 8

9 Outlook for the 114 th Congress Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 25 Oh brave new world Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 26 the 114 th Congress convenes on January 4 th, 2015 First Things First House of Representatives must adopt rules for new session Senate does not need to adopt new rules, but must consider changes to rules Leadership positions must be confirmed House: Speaker/Majority Leader/Minority Leader, Majority/Minority Whips and deputies Senate: Majority Leader/Minority Leader, Majority/Minority Whips and deputies Committee chairs and members must be selected Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 27 9

10 Outlook for 114 th Congress Will have significant proportion of new members 11 in Senate (11%) 58 in House (13%) Significant majorities in House and Senate mean Republicans have more ability to push legislation through Congress BUT subject to: Objections from Democrats Objections from rank-and-file Republicans Presidential veto Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 28 Appropriations FY 2016 More likely that new Republican majority will flex its muscles here No agreement on spending caps means starting from scratch Republicans have expressed desire to eliminate Defense sequestration Pass budget resolutions in House and Senate through reconciliation only need majority, not 60 votes in Senate Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 29 Other Leadership Priorities Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) likely Senate Majority Leader Approve the Keystone XL Pipeline Changes to health care law: Repealing the medical device tax Changing full-time definition to 40-hour work week Repealing individual mandate Changes to Estate Tax Modify Senate rules Possibly eliminate nuclear option Allow more Senators to bring legislation to floor Work with President on bipartisan legislation 30 10

11 Other Leadership Priorities Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) incumbent (and likely future) Speaker of the House Simplify tax code Reduce spending by revising entitlement programs and other drivers of debt Legal reforms, including medical malpractice Regulatory Reforms Making major rules contingent on Congressional approval, reducing agency expenses Education reforms Expanding charter school access Reducing college costs Reforming K-12 education by: (mostly part of H.R. 10) Revamping teacher evaluations Giving States/districts more control over use of federal funds Increasing school choice options 31 New Chair in Senate Committee Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Current Chairman Tom Harkin (D-IA) retiring at the end of the year Chair finalized in January when new Senate convenes Most likely Lamar Alexander (R-TN) Former U.S. Secretary of Education, Governor, college president Focus on HEA reauthorization, FAFSA simplification, reducing higher ed regulations ESEA reauthorization a top priority New Ranking Member likely Patty Murray (D-WA) Focus on early education 32 New Makeup of House Committee Rep. John Kline (R-MN) remains Chairman Focus on ESEA reauthorization, charter schools Wants to reauthorize HEA Current Ranking Member George Miller (D-CA) will retire at the end of the year Likely replacement is Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) Focus on school discipline, boosting minority achievement Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 33 11

12 114 th Congress in a Nutshell Continued partisanship, especially in Senate Clashes with President on immigration, health care Focus on funding issues Likely candidates for education action: HEA reauthorization Charter schools Maybe ESEA (?????) Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 34 Disclaimer This presentation is intended solely to provide general information and does not constitute legal advice or a legal service. This presentation does not create a client-lawyer relationship with Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC and, therefore, carries none of the protections under the D.C. Rules of Professional Conduct. Attendance at this presentation, a later review of any printed or electronic materials, or any follow-up questions or communications arising out of this presentation with any attorney at Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC does not create an attorney-client relationship with Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC. You should not take any action based upon any information in this presentation without first consulting legal counsel familiar with your particular circumstances. Brustein & Manasevit, PLLC 35 12