THE 2014 ELECTION PRESENTATION BY JIM JENSEN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR CONGRESSIONAL AND GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS

Transcription

1 THE 2014 ELECTION PRESENTATION BY JIM JENSEN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR CONGRESSIONAL AND GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS FEDERAL DEMONSTRATION PARTNERSHIP SEPTEMBER 11, 2014

2 What is at stake? The House of Representatives has 234 Republicans and 201 Democrats Of these 4 Republican seats are truly vulnerable And 13 Democratic seats are vulnerable Unlikely to be a change in the majority of the House

3 The election is far more important to the power structure of the Senate There are current 53 Democratic Senators, plus two independents who caucus with the Democrats (Sen. Sanders of Vermont and Sen. King of Maine) There are 45 Republican Senators

4 Thus to assume control of the Senate, the Republicans must win a net of 6 seats This is highly possible some would say likely.

5 First, three seats held by Democrats will surely go over to the Republicans The seat held by Senator Rockefeller (D-W.V.) The seat held by Sen. Johnson (D-S.D.) The seat held by Sen. Walsh (D-MT), who replaced Sen. Baucus when he retired.

6 So the real pickup target of the Republicans is a net of 3 seats and the field is large

7 First, the Republicans must defend two of their own seats: Kentucky Georgia

8 There are 7 Democratic seats that are considered by many analysts to be toss-ups. Iowa Michigan Alaska Arkansas Colorado Louisiana North Carolina

9 Kentucky Georgia Montana South Dakota West Virginia Arkansas Michigan Alaska Iowa Colorado Louisiana North Carolina

10 Kentucky Georgia Montana South Dakota West Virginia Arkansas Michigan Alaska Iowa Colorado Louisiana North Carolina Kentucky Georgia Montana +1 South Dakota +2 West Virginia +3 Arkansas +4 Michigan Alaska Republicans Will Need a Gain of 6 Seats to Gain Control of Senate

11 Iowa Colorado Louisiana North Carolina Kentucky Georgia Montana +1 South Dakota +2 West Virginia +3 Arkansas +4 Iowa Michigan Alaska Colorado Republicans Will Need a Gain of 6 Seats to Gain Control of Senate

12 Many changes in the committee leadership positions are important to science, whether the Senate changes hands or not.

13 Several important departures Rep. Frank Wolf is retiring Rep. Henry Waxman is retiring Rep. Cantor has been defeated Sen. Tom Harkin is retiring Sen. Rockefeller is retiring

14 There will be important changes in some of the key committees.

15 The Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies will have a new chair, as Rep. Wolf (R-VA) is retiring Extremely important post, for both funding and policy considerations. May be replaced by Rep. Culberson (R-TX)

16 With Sen. Rockefeller s retirement, the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation will change hands. The new chair could be Sen. Thune (R-S.D.) if the Republicans gain the majority, Or Senator Boxer (D-CA) could assume the chair, or Sen. Cantwell (D-WA), or Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL)

17 The Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Sciences and Related Agencies, which funds NSF, NASA, NIST and NOAA will change hands if the Senate goes to a Republican majority.

18 The Senate Committee on Health, Labor, Education and Pensions will have a new chair, as Sen. Harkin is retiring. If the Senate goes to a Republican majority, the chair will be Sen. Alexander (R-TN) If it stays under Democratic control, the new chair could be Sen. Murray (D-WA)

19 The Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor/HHS and Education will have a new chair, as Harkin is retiring. It funds NIH. If the Senate goes to a Republican majority, it could go to Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS).

20 Congress Will Likely Pass a CR to Complete FY2015 Appropriations Appropriations Bills Passed by Both Chambers Bill passed No FY2015 appropriations bills passed by Congress to date Bill not passed Analysis As of July 2014, Congress has yet to jointly pass a single appropriations bills for FY Budget Scenarios Congress passes continuing resolution, resumes negotiations in lameduck session. Congress passes a 2- to 3-month CR to keep agencies funded past Oct. 1 with the intention of passing appropriations bills in November and December. Likely, but parties continue to gauge whether passing a CR would strengthen or weaken their budget negotiation positions. Congress passes CR, resumes negotiations in new session. Congress passes 2- to 3-month CR, but one chamber staves off further negotiations until January, when the new Congress possibly under new margins of party control convenes. Possible, but depends on whether either party gains enough seats in November to materially strengthen their bargaining power in the 114th Congress. One chamber demands passage of an omnibus bill. One chamber or the other may insist upon passage of its version of an omnibus bill tying together all unfinished bills in lieu of a CR. Unlikely, because such insistence could lead to a shutdown or threats of a shutdown weeks before midterm elections, harming incumbent candidates. Congress passes appropriations bills through regular order. Congress reaches bicameral agreements on all 12 appropriations bills before the start of the new fiscal year. Unlikely, because negotiations could potentially lead to difficult votes for candidates in an election year. Observers believe that Congress will pass a CR this fall and complete appropriations post-midterms, either in a lame duck or new session of Congress Source: Billy House, Is the Congressional Budget Process Going Off the Rails? NJ Daily, May 22, 2014.

21 AMERICA COMPETES LEGISLATION SENATE VERSION -The America COMPETES Reauthorization Act of 2014 builds on the goals and successes of the America COMPETES Act of 2007 and its reauthorization in The Senators bill would authorize stable and sustained increases in federal research and development (R&D) funding for the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) -would also promote the economic benefits of promising R&D and address agency efforts, including at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to increase participation in STEM fields, including among women and minorities.

22 Frontiers in Innovation, Research, Science, and Technology (FIRST) Act (H.R. 4186) The bill reauthorizes and prioritizes federal investments at the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) by funding research and development (R&D) to address national needs. The bill also sets priorities to drive our nation s investments in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) education programs.