Election Aftermath Political & Policy Reboot or Extended Conflict

Transcription

1 Election Aftermath Political & Policy Reboot or Extended Conflict

2 228 Hillary R. Clinton Presidential Results Donald J. Trump ,814,018 Popular Votes (47.7%) 59,611,678 Popular Votes (47.5%) AK WA OR NV CA ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN WI IA IL MO AR MS LA NY MI PA IN OH WV VA KY NC TN SC AL GA ME VT NH MA RI CT NJ MD DE FL HI

3 48 Democrats (Includes 2 Independents) US Senate Results Republicans 51 Net 2, Gained 2, Lost 0 Net -2, Gained 0, Lost 2 AK WA OR NV CA ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN WI IA IL MO AR MS LA NY MI PA IN OH WV VA KY NC TN SC AL GA ME VT NH MA RI CT NJ MD DE FL HI

4 US House of Representatives Results Democrats Republicans Net 6, Gained 9, Lost 3 Net -6, Gained 3, Lost of 435 Needed for a Majority

5 Mood of Congress During Lame Duck Election provides opportunity for reboot of policy and politics Leadership elections and orientation next week Committee assignments in December Less change in power than change in the possible Depends on signals from Trump and Obama GOP has opportunity to govern

6 AGC Doesn t Make Excuses, We Make a Difference Infrastructure bills like WRDA Workforce development--perkins Procurement reform like NDAA Federal construction funding Multiemployer pension composite plans Riders to block regulations Blacklisting, Fiduciary, Overtime, etc.

7 Congressional Election Outcome Largely status quo New members: 51 new House members 6 new senators Members leaving Congress 9 incumbents (2 senators 7 reps.) lost on Tuesday 4 (3R 1D) lost primaries 29 (5 Senate 24 House) retirements; (19R 10D) 16 ran for other office (6R 10D)

8 Appropriations Key House Committees New Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen* (R-NJ-11) 6 openings Education and Workforce New Chairwoman Virginia Foxx (R-NC-5) 4 openings Transportation and Infrastructure Rep. Bill Shuster (R-PA-9) remains chairman 9 openings Ways and Means Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX-8) remains chairman 5 openings

9 Key Senate Committees Appropriations New Chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL) New Ranking Member Patty Murray* (D-WA) One incumbent lost: Mark Kirk (R-IL) Environment & Public Works New Chairman John Barrasso (R-WY) or Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) New Ranking Member Tom Carper (D-DE) or Ben Cardin (D-MD) One retirement: David Vitter (R-LA) Finance One retirement: Dan Coats (R-IN) Health, Education Labor and Pensions 1 loss, 1 Retirement Maybe Bernie Sanders (I-VT) as ranking member if Murray picks Appropriations Judiciary One retirement: David Vitter (R-LA)

10 Water Resource Development Act (WRDA) WRDA authorizes billions of dollars for construction projects executed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers The House passed its WRDA bill $5 billion The Senate passed its WRDA bill 95-3 $10.6 billion Final WRDA bill expected to pass in lame-duck session

11 Executive Orders & Regulations Short-Term Obama Admin Slams the Gas Lame Duck Congress Options Policy Riders? Defense Bill Long-Term Trump Admin Slams the Brakes Roll Back Obama EOs and Rules Congressional Review Act Using Regulatory Process Regulatory Reform Legislation

12 Executive Orders & Regulations The Next 100 Days in Regulations October 25 : Fair Pay Safe Workplaces (Blacklisting) December 1: Overtime Rule December 1: OSHA Injury and Illness Recordkeeping January 1: Paid Sick Leave U.S. EPA Stormwater Permits (Expected Jan.) Corps Nationwide Wetlands Permits (Expected Jan.)

13 First 100 Days (January April) Supreme Court nomination Infrastructure Staffing up the administration; confirmations First budget, appropriations Border security, health care and jobs

14 Infrastructure Consensus is infrastructure will be a part of the first 100 days Pledged $1 trillion infrastructure plan Plans to pursue an America s Infrastructure First policy Bold, visionary plan for roads, bridges, airports, rail, ports and waterways Leverage new revenues and work with financing authorities, public private partnerships, and other funding/financing opportunities Attract new private infrastructure investments Provide maximum flexibility to the states Link increased investments to reforms to infrastructure programs Triple funding for State Revolving Fund

15 Infrastructure Refocus government spending on American infrastructure and away from Obama/Clinton globalization agenda AGC tracks over 80 federal construction accounts These programs accounted for nearly $124 billion in appropriated dollars in 2016

16 Local Hiring Requirements AGC kept local hire authority out of MAP-21-FAST Act Obama administration granted authority under pilot program AGC included restrictions in Approps bill AGC will seek end of pilot program

17 Environmental Issues Trump and Obama couldn t be farther apart on environmental issues Lisa Jackson and Gina McCarthy vs. Myron Ebell Paris Agreement, Clean Power Plan Energy Independence - Fracking/Natural Gas, Offshore Leasing, Lifting Coal Moratorium Supreme Court

18 Waters of the US Promised to rescind the rule Status quo without the rule is also broken and not ideal Unclear whether a Trump EPA writes a new rule or not

19 Workforce and Training Policies AGC supports increased training opportunities to meet the skilled worker shortage by working on legislation that will provide opportunity and upward mobility Perkins rewrite would update Career and Technical Education Encourages employer alignment and collaboration, expands work-based learning and industry recognized credentials; includes modest funding increases Passed House overwhelmingly (405-5) in September Under consideration for action in Lame Duck, early 2017 at latest Higher Education Act expected to be considered next Congress; provides opportunity to tap into federal funding for construction skills training Trump s positions and priorities largely unknown; generally bipartisan issue but budget austerity will prevent proper investments

20 Immigration Policies AGC supports immigration reform that strengthens national security, functions efficiently and fairly, and addresses future workforce needs Major 2016 Election issue and cornerstone of Trump campaign Trump s priorities: Mandatory e-verify for new hires Changes to temporary work visa programs Increased border security and screening Largescale, comprehensive reform will remain elusive but smaller, more targeted changes possible

21 Labor & Employment Law Policies AGC works to ensure the construction industry s unique nature is recognized, remains a middle class jobs creator and restrict burdensome restrictions on employers hiring its workforce Obama Administration spent 8 years targeting employers and expanding worker rights Trump s positions and priorities continue to evolve but more business friendly climate expected GOP Congress may target union organizing, reverse or modify Obama era regulations and federal enforcement agencies may have different priorities

22 Health Care Policies AGC supports replacing the Affordable Care Act with policies that expand employer and employee choice, reduce health care costs, reduce employer reporting requirements, and promote employee responsibility and accountability Obama second term saw the ACA under constant attack by Congress and Courts. Only a handful of changes since 2010 Trump made numerous promises to dismantle the law, and replace it Full repeal will not survive filibuster in Senate. ACA will change, but how much? and when? Key employer issues that may change: 30 hour rule, arcane employer reporting requirements, HRA penalties, seasonal employee treatment and Cadillac tax

23 OSHA Outlook Regulatory Activity in 2016 Silica rule Recordkeeping - Drug testing Looking ahead Current administration Will try to finalize another recordkeeping rule Incoming administration AGC will advocate for a more collaborative approach between the agency and stakeholders AGC will advocate for continued support of the Susan Harwood Training Grant program

24 Tax Options Comprehensive Reform (Rates, Credits, Deductions) House Republicans have a blueprint will Republicans be able to bring enough Democrats to get to 60 votes in Senate or use special budget rules aka reconciliation? Plan or forced to wait for 2018? What to do with pass-through businesses - Neither the House Republican tax plan nor Trump's proposals have been fleshed out in legislative language; Trump has suggested that there would be a significant difference between the top rate that individuals pay (33 percent) and the top rate that pass-through businesses pay (15 percent); his team says there will be strong rules to prevent people from gaming those rules, but that's far easier said than done Expiring provisions along with financing & accounting fixes are focus in 2017 Perennial Tax Extenders While abhorred, expiration, and retroactive renewal is the new norm under a gridlocked government AGC had 5 of 10 policies made permanent in 2015 & 5 expiring over the coming years Repat for Roads Both party candidates campaigns intersected on bringing home $2.6T of foreign earnings and infrastructure plans Impetus for reform - International tax pressure has boiled over (i.e. inversion regulations and EU rulings causing large companies & US Govt to possibly lose revenue) Ensure C-corp & pass-through parity in any tax reform efforts

25 Trump Impact on Washington, DC Where does Trump want to take the country? Does he work with Congress or try to go over their heads? Does he leave an impact with nominations and appointments?

26 Filling out their roster Trump Transition Team Looking at Trump and Congressional options Prioritizing our activities to include legislation, regulation, and judicial options

27 AGC Legislative Agenda Legislative Action Committee meets 12/12 Identify priorities based on impact on the industry, timeliness, and achievability Board of Directors reviews in January 2017

28 Infrastructure Related Ballot Initiatives (Statewide only) Carbon tax on fossil fuels and energy generated from them $9 billion for K-12 schools & community colleges Require voter approval of revenue bonds over $2 billion AK WA OR NV CA HI ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE TX $142 million for higher ed, special, and tribal schools $15 million for senior facility bonds $18 million in public safety infrastructure improvements Firewall transportation funds KS OK MN IA MO AR LA WI IL MS Rainy-day fund for transportation Casino expansion outside Atlantic City Fuel tax revenue for transportation trust fund IN TN AL MI KY OH GA $100 million transportation bond WV SC NC FL PA VA NY ME Casino facility $45 million in bonds for higher education $70 million in port infrastructure bonds $50 million in affordable housing bonds $10 million in bike/ped bonds Property tax exemptions for solar power and renewable energy equipment installed in home, commercial, and industrial property

29 Labor & Employment Related Ballot Initiatives (Statewide only) Minimum wage & paid Leave Recreational marijuana Drug price caps Recreational marijuana AK CA OR WA NV ID AZ UT Recreational marijuana Minimum wage & paid sick time HI Medical marijuana MT WY CO NM Minimum wage Sate-run single-payer health-care system Medical marijuana ND SD NE TX KS OK MN IA MO AR LA WI IL MS Medical marijuana Right-to-Work (repeal) Minimum wage (decrease) IN TN AL MI KY OH Right-to-Work GA WV SC NC FL PA VA NY Recreational marijuana Minimum wage ME Medical marijuana Recreational marijuana Right-to-Work

30 AGC PAC Results Total: 26 (23R 3D) Retired: 0 Lost Primary: 0 Running on Election Day: 26 Outstanding Races: 0 Won: 22 Lost: 4 Election Day Success Rating: 85% Overall success rating: 96% Total: 184 (165R 19D) Retired/Ran for Other Office: 8 Lost Primary: 2 Running on Election Day: 174 Outstanding Races: 2 Won: 170 Lost: 2 Election Day Success Rating: 98%

31 Incoming Freshman with Construction Experience Name: Francis Rooney Party: Republican District: FL-19 Experience: Chairman of Rooney Holdings and CEO of Manhattan Construction Group; father was 1978 AGC president Name: Trey Hollingsworth Party: Republican District: IN-9 Experience: Former homebuilder then transitioned to repositioning and renovating abandoned industrial sites Name: Lloyd Smucker Party: Republican District: PA-16 Experience: Founded the Smucker Company, a wall and ceiling contractor

32 Counties that Flipped in 2016

33 25 Democrats (Includes 2 Independents) 2018 US Senate Races Republicans 8 10 states won by Trump 0 states won by Clinton AK WA OR NV CA ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK TX MN WI IA IL MO AR MS LA NY MI PA IN OH WV VA KY NC TN SC AL GA ME VT NH MA RI CT NJ MD DE FL HI

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