The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison
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1 The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison Wisconsin Credit Union League January 25, 2011
2 Seat Change in States Seat Change in US House In the words of the President A shellacking States' lower house U.S. House Presidential Party Seat Change, US House and Lower Houses in States
3 Incumbents in US House Dem lost Dem <55% Dem >60% Rep lost Rep <55% Rep >60%
4 * The biggest seat swing in over 60 years Congress Source: Barry Burden, UW-Madison
5 Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: presidential approval
6 Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: a sluggish economy
7 Bad fundamentals: a sluggish economy Republican support among voters who said: House 2010 Vote R House 2008 Vote R R Improvement Nation s economy in poor condition Family s financial situation worse Very worried about economy
8 Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: many seats up for grabs
9 Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: many recently won seats
10 Why a shellacking? Add the common problems of a party regaining unified control of government Add a well-mobilized, motivated grassroots opposition Add a stronger, more experienced pool of Republican candidates And a shellacking is the result
11 Fundamentals at work Democrats lost vote share in 89 percent of House districts Nearly every demographic group moved toward the GOP Source: Eric McGhee
12 Strongest Republican supporters
13 The result? From the most liberal to most conservative House overnight Source: Adam Bonica, ideologicalcartography.com
14 The result? And the return of divided government - Reagan (Rep Senate, Dem House) - Reagan (Dem Senate, Dem House) - Bush (Dem Senate, Dem House) - Clinton (Rep Senate, Rep House) - Bush (Dem Senate, Rep House) - Bush (Dem Senate, Dem House) - Obama 2011-? (Dem Senate, Rep House)
15 The result?... in a time of historically high party conflict Source: Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal
16 The result? Major accomplishments are possible under these conditions, but extremely difficult Parties have different priorities, solutions, and electoral incentives
17 What about Citizens United? Senate The vast majority of ads were still run by candidates and parties in % Interest group ads Candidate and party ads House Governor Interest group ads Interest group ads 86.6% Candidate and party ads 87.0% Candidate and party ads Source: Wesleyan Media Project
18 The wave in the states: five quick facts GOP holds its most seats in state legislatures since 1928 GOP gained about 700 seats nationally, most by either party since 1966 Over 20 state legislative chamber switches to GOP. To Dems: 0 Republicans control over 55 chambers, their most since 1952 Fifty fewer Democrats ran than in 2008, while 820 more Republicans ran
19 Republicans in Assembly, Wisconsin
20 Republicans in Senate, Wisconsin
21 Largest postwar gains, Wisconsin legislature Assembly Senate Year Party Gain Year Party Gain 1958 Dem Rep Dem Dem Dem Dem Rep Rep Rep Dem Dem Rep 4
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