The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison"

Transcription

1 The 2010 Election and Its Aftermath John Coleman and Charles Franklin Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin-Madison Wisconsin Credit Union League January 25, 2011

2 Seat Change in States Seat Change in US House In the words of the President A shellacking States' lower house U.S. House Presidential Party Seat Change, US House and Lower Houses in States

3 Incumbents in US House Dem lost Dem <55% Dem >60% Rep lost Rep <55% Rep >60%

4 * The biggest seat swing in over 60 years Congress Source: Barry Burden, UW-Madison

5 Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: presidential approval

6 Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: a sluggish economy

7 Bad fundamentals: a sluggish economy Republican support among voters who said: House 2010 Vote R House 2008 Vote R R Improvement Nation s economy in poor condition Family s financial situation worse Very worried about economy

8 Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: many seats up for grabs

9 Why a shellacking? Bad fundamentals: many recently won seats

10 Why a shellacking? Add the common problems of a party regaining unified control of government Add a well-mobilized, motivated grassroots opposition Add a stronger, more experienced pool of Republican candidates And a shellacking is the result

11 Fundamentals at work Democrats lost vote share in 89 percent of House districts Nearly every demographic group moved toward the GOP Source: Eric McGhee

12 Strongest Republican supporters

13 The result? From the most liberal to most conservative House overnight Source: Adam Bonica, ideologicalcartography.com

14 The result? And the return of divided government - Reagan (Rep Senate, Dem House) - Reagan (Dem Senate, Dem House) - Bush (Dem Senate, Dem House) - Clinton (Rep Senate, Rep House) - Bush (Dem Senate, Rep House) - Bush (Dem Senate, Dem House) - Obama 2011-? (Dem Senate, Rep House)

15 The result?... in a time of historically high party conflict Source: Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal

16 The result? Major accomplishments are possible under these conditions, but extremely difficult Parties have different priorities, solutions, and electoral incentives

17 What about Citizens United? Senate The vast majority of ads were still run by candidates and parties in % Interest group ads Candidate and party ads House Governor Interest group ads Interest group ads 86.6% Candidate and party ads 87.0% Candidate and party ads Source: Wesleyan Media Project

18 The wave in the states: five quick facts GOP holds its most seats in state legislatures since 1928 GOP gained about 700 seats nationally, most by either party since 1966 Over 20 state legislative chamber switches to GOP. To Dems: 0 Republicans control over 55 chambers, their most since 1952 Fifty fewer Democrats ran than in 2008, while 820 more Republicans ran

19 Republicans in Assembly, Wisconsin

20 Republicans in Senate, Wisconsin

21 Largest postwar gains, Wisconsin legislature Assembly Senate Year Party Gain Year Party Gain 1958 Dem Rep Dem Dem Dem Dem Rep Rep Rep Dem Dem Rep 4

Political Report: September 2010

Political Report: September 2010 Political Report: September 2010 Introduction The REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP) is a program of the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) dedicated to keeping or winning Republican control

More information

The Outlook for the 2010 Midterm Elections: How Large a Wave?

The Outlook for the 2010 Midterm Elections: How Large a Wave? The Outlook for the 2010 Midterm Elections: How Large a Wave? What is at stake? All 435 House seats 256 Democratic seats 179 Republican seats Republicans needs to gain 39 seats for majority 37 Senate seats

More information

Congressional Elections, 2018 and Beyond

Congressional Elections, 2018 and Beyond Congressional Elections, 2018 and Beyond Robert S. Erikson Columbia University 2018 Conference by the Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston Triple Play: Election 2018; Census 2020; and

More information

MEMO: The Folmer Redistricting Commission: Neither Independent Nor Nonpartisan

MEMO: The Folmer Redistricting Commission: Neither Independent Nor Nonpartisan MEMO: The Folmer Redistricting Commission: Neither Independent Nor Nonpartisan Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center 412 N. 3 rd St, Harrisburg, PA 17101 www.pennbpc.org 717-255-7156 To: Editorial Page

More information

Election 2012 in Review

Election 2012 in Review Election 2012 in Review Photo source: AP, Bradenton Herald John John Coleman Coleman University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Clark University Harrington Lecture, October 24, 2011 Clark University

More information

May You Live in Interesting Times

May You Live in Interesting Times May You Live in Interesting Times - apocryphal Chinese Curse National Political Snapshot March 1, 2019 2017 Epstein Becker & Green, P.C. All Rights Reserved. ebglaw.com 2018 Election: Iconoclast President,

More information

When should I use the Voting and Elections Collection?

When should I use the Voting and Elections Collection? INTRODUCTION When should I use the Voting and Elections Collection? You can find information and data on: The campaign and election process The electorate, including some demographics, voter turnout and

More information

On Election Night 2008, Democrats

On Election Night 2008, Democrats Signs point to huge GOP gains in legislative chambers. But the question remains: How far might the Democrats fall? By Tim Storey Tim Storey is NCSL s elections expert. On Election Night 2008, Democrats

More information

2010 Legislative Elections

2010 Legislative Elections 2010 Legislative Elections By Tim Storey State Legislative Branch The 2010 state legislative elections brought major change to the state partisan landscape with Republicans emerging in the best position

More information

Fixing the U.S. Congress by Embracing Earmarks

Fixing the U.S. Congress by Embracing Earmarks Fixing the U.S. Congress by Embracing Earmarks John Hudak, Ph.D. Fellow, Center for Effective Public Management The Brookings Institution E: jhudak@brookings.edu T: @JohnJHudak Republicans Gift to President

More information

What Happened on Election Day

What Happened on Election Day An Election Postmortem & A Look Ahead Moll Strategies--Dan Moll What Happened on Election Day 139 Million Voters Cast Ballots (47M voted early 33%) 58% eligible voters Contrary to earlier stories of low

More information

Texas. SUPER DISTRICT A - FIVE SEATS % 2000 Presidential Vote

Texas. SUPER DISTRICT A - FIVE SEATS % 2000 Presidential Vote Texas Racial Representation Of the voting population of 6,232,350, 28.7 are Latino and 11.0 are black. Under the current 32-district system, black voters do not make up the majority in any district and

More information

2018 MIDTERMS PRE- ELECTION OVER VIEW OCTOBER 2018

2018 MIDTERMS PRE- ELECTION OVER VIEW OCTOBER 2018 2018 MIDTERMS PRE- ELECTION OVER VIEW OCTOBER 2018 4 Weeks Out Greg Speed President, America Votes State of Power: From 2008 to Now 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 President Dem Dem Dem Dem Rep Rep US Senate

More information

PRESS RELEASE. Sunday, June 27 th, 2004 Jon Bartholomew, (207) Arn Pearson, (207)

PRESS RELEASE. Sunday, June 27 th, 2004 Jon Bartholomew, (207) Arn Pearson, (207) PRESS RELEASE Embargoed, For Release: For More Information: Sunday, June 27 th, 2004 Jon Bartholomew, (207) 712-8471 Arn Pearson, (207) 766-0951 Clean Elections Candidates Win Majority of Primary Elections

More information

The Presidential Election. Paul Beck, The Ohio State University Lifelong Learning Institute December 7, 2016

The Presidential Election. Paul Beck, The Ohio State University Lifelong Learning Institute December 7, 2016 The Presidential Election Paul Beck, The Ohio State University Lifelong Learning Institute December 7, 2016 1 Introduction: Fundamentals of the 2016 Presidential Contests 2016 presidential results with

More information

The Keys to the White House: Updated Forecast for 2008

The Keys to the White House: Updated Forecast for 2008 The Keys to the White House: Updated Forecast for 2008 Allan J. Lichtman Professor of History American University Washington, DC 20016 202-885-2411 lichtman@american.edu Abstract The Keys to the White

More information

2008 Legislative Elections

2008 Legislative Elections 2008 Legislative Elections By Tim Storey Democrats have been on a roll in legislative elections and increased their numbers again in 2008. Buoyed by the strong campaign of President Barack Obama in many

More information

Winning Florida The Importance of Central Florida and the Puerto Rican Vote

Winning Florida The Importance of Central Florida and the Puerto Rican Vote Winning Florida The Importance of Central Florida and the Puerto Rican Vote Republican Election Results The Importance of Central Florida Presidential: As Central Florida goes, so goes Florida; as Florida

More information

Analyzing the Legislative Productivity of Congress During the Obama Administration

Analyzing the Legislative Productivity of Congress During the Obama Administration Western Michigan University ScholarWorks at WMU Honors Theses Lee Honors College 12-5-2017 Analyzing the Legislative Productivity of Congress During the Obama Administration Zachary Hunkins Western Michigan

More information

Mindy Romero, Ph.D. Director

Mindy Romero, Ph.D. Director Mindy Romero, Ph.D. Director 1. What happened in the 2016 election? 2. What should we expect in 2018? 3. What is the impact of demographic change? Study Methodology Voter Turnout Data Current Population

More information

THE START OF THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY January 11-15, 2009

THE START OF THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY January 11-15, 2009 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For Release: Saturday, January 17, 2009 2:00 pm EST THE START OF THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY January 11-15, 2009 Amid an economic recession, two wars and with an unpopular outgoing

More information

Trump, Populism and the Economy

Trump, Populism and the Economy Libby Cantrill, CFA October 2016 Trump, Populism and the Economy This material contains the current opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been

More information

The Cook Political Report s Road Map to the 2018 Midterms

The Cook Political Report s Road Map to the 2018 Midterms The Cook Political Report s Road Map to the 2018 Midterms David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor, The Cook Political Report Council on Government Relations October 25, 2018 Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com

More information

The Constitution of the United States of America

The Constitution of the United States of America The Constitution of the United States of America The Federal Government is made up of 3 Branches that have individual powers, duties, and responsibilities. Qualifications to be a: *Representative *Senator

More information

Politicians who needs them? 1 of 5 10/23/2014 8:30 AM. October , 5.34am EDT. Glenn Altschuler

Politicians who needs them? 1 of 5 10/23/2014 8:30 AM. October , 5.34am EDT. Glenn Altschuler 1 of 5 10/23/2014 8:30 AM October 22 2014, 5.34am EDT AU T H O R Glenn Altschuler Education and Summer Sessions at Cornell University Thomas and Dorothy Litwin Professor of American Studies and Dean of

More information

Legal Challege to Winner Take All Jeffrey and Deni Dickler May 9, 2017 Slide 1

Legal Challege to Winner Take All Jeffrey and Deni Dickler May 9, 2017 Slide 1 Slide 1 MOPAG Call to Action I m Jeffrey Dickler, part of a small group from MOPAG and MOmentum bringing together resources for a legal challenge to Missouri s method of selecting presidential electors

More information

Mindy Romero, Ph.D. Director

Mindy Romero, Ph.D. Director Mindy Romero, Ph.D. Director 1. What happened in the 2016 election? 2. What should we expect in 2018? 3. What is the impact of demographic change? Study Methodology Voter Turnout Data Current Population

More information

The Government Shutdown: An After Action Report

The Government Shutdown: An After Action Report The Government Shutdown: An After Action Report On the need to pick the terrain of battle He who knows these things, and in fighting puts his knowledge into practice, will win his battles. He who knows

More information

AP US GOVERNMENT: CHAPER 7: POLITICAL PARTIES: ESSENTIAL TO DEMOCRACY

AP US GOVERNMENT: CHAPER 7: POLITICAL PARTIES: ESSENTIAL TO DEMOCRACY AP US GOVERNMENT: CHAPER 7: POLITICAL PARTIES: ESSENTIAL TO DEMOCRACY Before political parties, candidates were listed alphabetically, and those whose names began with the letters A to F did better than

More information

Introduction What are political parties, and how do they function in our two-party system? Encourage good behavior among members

Introduction What are political parties, and how do they function in our two-party system? Encourage good behavior among members Chapter 5: Political Parties Section 1 Objectives Define a political party. Describe the major functions of political parties. Identify the reasons why the United States has a two-party system. Understand

More information

Growth Leads to Transformation

Growth Leads to Transformation Growth Leads to Transformation Florida attracted newcomers for a variety of reasons. Some wanted to escape cold weather (retirees). Others, primarily from abroad, came in search of political freedom or

More information

It s Democrats +8 in Likely Voter Preference, With Trump and Health Care on Center Stage

It s Democrats +8 in Likely Voter Preference, With Trump and Health Care on Center Stage ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: The 2018 Midterm Elections EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:00 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 4, 2018 It s Democrats +8 in Likely Voter Preference, With Trump and Health Care on Center

More information

Historical Perspectives A Look Back At MRG Michigan Poll Data TrendsThrough The Years MICHIGAN POLL

Historical Perspectives A Look Back At MRG Michigan Poll Data TrendsThrough The Years MICHIGAN POLL Historical Perspectives A Look Back At MRG Michigan Poll Data TrendsThrough The Years MICHIGAN POLL SM 1985 212 Historical Perspectives A Look Back At MRG Michigan Poll Data TrendsThrough The Years MICHIGAN

More information

Partisan Advantage and Competitiveness in Illinois Redistricting

Partisan Advantage and Competitiveness in Illinois Redistricting Partisan Advantage and Competitiveness in Illinois Redistricting An Updated and Expanded Look By: Cynthia Canary & Kent Redfield June 2015 Using data from the 2014 legislative elections and digging deeper

More information

Incumbent Support its Lowest Since 94 In a Mine-Strewn Political Environment

Incumbent Support its Lowest Since 94 In a Mine-Strewn Political Environment ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: 2010 POLITICS EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, April 28, 2010 Incumbent Support its Lowest Since 94 In a Mine-Strewn Political Environment Just a third of

More information

POLITICS AND THE PRESIDENT April 6-9, 2006

POLITICS AND THE PRESIDENT April 6-9, 2006 CBS NEWS POLL For release: April 10, 2006 6:30 P.M. POLITICS AND THE PRESIDENT April 6-9, 2006 Although President Bush s approval ratings have stopped the downward slide that occurred earlier this year

More information

Elections and Voting Behavior

Elections and Voting Behavior Edwards, Wattenberg, and Lineberry Government in America: People, Politics, and Policy Fourteenth Edition Chapter 10 Elections and Voting Behavior How American Elections Work Three types of elections:

More information

Gerrymandering: t he serpentine art VCW State & Local

Gerrymandering: t he serpentine art VCW State & Local Gerrymandering: the serpentine art VCW State & Local What is gerrymandering? Each state elects a certain number of congressional Reps. Process is controlled by the party in power in the state legislature

More information

Winning with a middle class reform politics and government message Report on a new national survey

Winning with a middle class reform politics and government message Report on a new national survey Date: December 17, 2015 To: Friends of & WVWVAF From: Stan Greenberg, Page Gardner, Women s Voices, Women Vote Action Fund David Walker, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Winning with a middle class reform politics

More information

The Rising American Electorate & White Working Class Strike Back: Extended memo from post-election research

The Rising American Electorate & White Working Class Strike Back: Extended memo from post-election research Date: November 27, 2018 To: Interested parties From: Stanley Greenberg, Greenberg Research Nancy Zdunkewicz, Page Gardner, Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund The Rising American Electorate & White

More information

The Electoral College

The Electoral College The Electoral College H. FRY 2014 What is the Electoral College? The Electoral College is NOT a University! College: -noun An organized association of persons having certain powers and rights, and performing

More information

connect the people to the government. These institutions include: elections, political parties, interest groups, and the media.

connect the people to the government. These institutions include: elections, political parties, interest groups, and the media. Overriding Questions 1. How has the decline of political parties influenced elections and campaigning? 2. How do political parties positively influence campaigns and elections and how do they negatively

More information

CLINTON NARROWLY LEADS TRUMP IN FLORIDA -- GOP THIRD PARTY DEFECTIONS & HISPANIC VOTERS CREATING THE CURRENT GAP

CLINTON NARROWLY LEADS TRUMP IN FLORIDA -- GOP THIRD PARTY DEFECTIONS & HISPANIC VOTERS CREATING THE CURRENT GAP CLINTON NARROWLY LEADS TRUMP IN FLORIDA -- GOP THIRD PARTY DEFECTIONS & HISPANIC VOTERS CREATING THE CURRENT GAP Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton currently holds a slight lead over Republican Donald

More information

Electoral College Reform: Evaluation and Policy Recommendations

Electoral College Reform: Evaluation and Policy Recommendations Electoral College Reform: Evaluation and Policy Recommendations Albert Qian, Alex Hider, Amanda Khan, Caroline Reisch, Madeline Goossen, and Araksya Nordikyan Research Question What are alternative ways

More information

The 2010 Midterm Election What Really Happened and Why

The 2010 Midterm Election What Really Happened and Why MEMORANDUM To: Interested Parties From: Jim McLaughlin and John McLaughlin Re: National Post-Election Survey Date: November 17, 2010 Methodology: The 2010 Midterm Election What Really Happened and Why

More information

The Stage is set for a Direction Changing November Election

The Stage is set for a Direction Changing November Election The Stage is set for a Direction Changing November Election George Washington University Battleground 55 Republican Analysis: By Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber As we enter the last sprint of this election

More information

REPORT # Legislative Elections: An Analysis of Clean Election Participation and Outcomes

REPORT # Legislative Elections: An Analysis of Clean Election Participation and Outcomes REPORT #5 2012 Legislative Elections: An Analysis of Clean Election Participation and Outcomes 1 The Money in Politics Project is a program of Maine Citizens for Clean Elections, a nonpartisan organization

More information

Chapter 9: Political Parties

Chapter 9: Political Parties Chapter 9: Political Parties What Is a Political Party? (pg.261) - A group of political activists who organize to win elections, to operate the government, and to determine public policy. What is an Interest

More information

The Cook Political Report 2012 Election Outlook

The Cook Political Report 2012 Election Outlook The Cook Political Report 2012 Election Outlook Presented by: David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor Southwest Ag Issues Summit September 10, 2012 Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com

More information

The 2014 Legislative Elections

The 2014 Legislative Elections The 2014 Legislative Elections By Tim Storey The 2014 election resulted in Republican dominance of state legislative control unmatched in nearly a century. Riding a surge of disaffection with a president

More information

Summer Reading Assignment The Surge: 2014 s Big GOP Win and What It Means for the Next Presidential Election: Edited by Larry Sabato

Summer Reading Assignment The Surge: 2014 s Big GOP Win and What It Means for the Next Presidential Election: Edited by Larry Sabato AP U.S Government & Politics Mrs. Rokosny 2018-19 AP U.S. Government and Politics Summer Assignment #1 Due The first day of class Summer Reading Assignment The Surge: 2014 s Big GOP Win and What It Means

More information

American Dental Association

American Dental Association American Dental Association May 2, 2016 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1 Heading into the Election Year SLIDE 2 Direction of country remains strongly negative for over a decade. Right Track Wrong Direction WT 80

More information

Please note: additional data sources are referenced throughout this presentation, including national exit polls and NBC/WSJ national survey data.

Please note: additional data sources are referenced throughout this presentation, including national exit polls and NBC/WSJ national survey data. Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present key findings from two national surveys of 800 actual voters conducted on November 6, 2012. These surveys were merged, for a total of 1,600 actual voters

More information

Public Opinion Strategies/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research October 2010

Public Opinion Strategies/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research October 2010 Project #101309 2 This survey was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies in conjunction with Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for National Public Radio and is the 31st survey in the NPR series. These

More information

Newsweek Poll Congressional Elections/Marijuana Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Final Topline Results (10/22/10)

Newsweek Poll Congressional Elections/Marijuana Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Final Topline Results (10/22/10) Newsweek Poll Congressional Elections/Marijuana Princeton Survey Research Associates International Final Topline Results (10/22/10) N = 1,005 adults 18+ (672 landline interviews and 333 cell phone interviews)

More information

To: Interested Parties. Fr: Simon Rosenberg. Dt: Friday, November 6, Re: NDN Post Election Memo, 2014 A Wake Up Call for Democrats

To: Interested Parties. Fr: Simon Rosenberg. Dt: Friday, November 6, Re: NDN Post Election Memo, 2014 A Wake Up Call for Democrats To: Interested Parties Fr: Simon Rosenberg Dt: Friday, November 6, 2014 Re: NDN Post Election Memo, 2014 A Wake Up Call for Democrats The Republicans Are a Far Stronger National Party Today Next year,

More information

Florida Statewide January 2016

Florida Statewide January 2016 Florida Statewide Securing Florida s Future Methodology Seven hundred and eleven (711) Florida voters were interviewed by a professional polling firm January 4-7, 16 The margin of error for this survey

More information

Key Factors That Shaped 2018 And A Brief Look Ahead

Key Factors That Shaped 2018 And A Brief Look Ahead Key Factors That Shaped 2018 And A Brief Look Ahead November 2018 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1 Yes, it was all about Trump. SLIDE 2 A midterm record said their vote was a message of support or opposition to

More information

Campaign 16. A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016

Campaign 16. A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016 Campaign 16 A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016 Agenda I. The Knowns II. The Unknowns III. The Early Appeals IV. The Hard Questions Bring Down Title The Knowns It s a Big Political

More information

2016: An Election Year to Remember. Ron Elving Senior Washington Editor National Public Radio

2016: An Election Year to Remember. Ron Elving Senior Washington Editor National Public Radio 2016: An Election Year to Remember Ron Elving Senior Washington Editor National Public Radio Anger and Anxiety An Election Year to Remember : Ron Elving / NPR FMI / Meat Conference February 22, 2016 Nashville

More information

Rising American Electorate & Working Class Women Strike Back. November 9, 2018

Rising American Electorate & Working Class Women Strike Back. November 9, 2018 Rising American Electorate & Working Class Strike Back November 9, 2018 Methodology National phone poll with oversample in 15-state presidential & 2018 battleground. An election phone poll of 1,250 registered

More information

Total respondents may not always add up to due to skip patterns imbedded in some questions.

Total respondents may not always add up to due to skip patterns imbedded in some questions. Political Questions Total respondents may not always add up to due to skip patterns imbedded in some questions. Do you think things in the state are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel

More information

Rising American Electorate & White Working Class Strike Back. November 27, 2018

Rising American Electorate & White Working Class Strike Back. November 27, 2018 Rising American Electorate & Working Class Strike Back November 27, 2018 Methodology National phone poll with oversample in 15-state presidential & 2018 battleground. An election phone poll of 1,250 registered

More information

US Mid-Term Elections: Which Implications? November 2014

US Mid-Term Elections: Which Implications? November 2014 US Mid-Term Elections: Which Implications? November 214 PERSPECTIVES Paresh Upadhyaya Senior Vice President, Director of Currency Strategy, US Key Insights The Republican Party added to its majority in

More information

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE HEADING INTO THE FIRST DEBATE September 21-24, 2008

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE HEADING INTO THE FIRST DEBATE September 21-24, 2008 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday, September 25, 2008 6:30 pm (EDT) THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE HEADING INTO THE FIRST DEBATE September 21-24, 2008 There has been no change in the race for President

More information

The United States Presidential Election Process: Undemocratic?

The United States Presidential Election Process: Undemocratic? The United States Presidential Election Process: Undemocratic? The Bill of Rights Institute Chicago, IL October 2, 2008 Artemus Ward Department of Political Science Northern Illinois University aeward@niu.edu

More information

Chapter 5: Political Parties Ms. Nguyen American Government Bell Ringer: 1. What is this chapter s EQ? 2. Interpret the quote below: No America

Chapter 5: Political Parties Ms. Nguyen American Government Bell Ringer: 1. What is this chapter s EQ? 2. Interpret the quote below: No America Chapter 5: Political Parties Ms. Nguyen American Government Bell Ringer: 1. What is this chapter s EQ? 2. Interpret the quote below: No America without democracy, no democracy without politics, no politics

More information

NEW JERSEY VOTERS TAKE ON 2008

NEW JERSEY VOTERS TAKE ON 2008 Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-263-5858 (office) 732-979-6769 (cell) pdmurray@monmouth.edu Released: Wednesday, 30, For more information: Monmouth University Polling Institute 400 Cedar Avenue West Long Branch,

More information

ELECTION OVERVIEW. + Context: Mood of the Electorate. + Election Results: Why did it happen? + The Future: What does it mean going forward?

ELECTION OVERVIEW. + Context: Mood of the Electorate. + Election Results: Why did it happen? + The Future: What does it mean going forward? 1 ELECTION OVERVIEW + Context: Mood of the Electorate + Election Results: Why did it happen? + The Future: What does it mean going forward? + Appendix: Polling Post-Mortem 2 2 INITIAL HEADLINES + Things

More information

Generic Pharmaceutical Association February 10, 2015

Generic Pharmaceutical Association February 10, 2015 Generic Pharmaceutical Association February 10, 2015 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1 We may finally be beginning to leave The Great Recession behind us. In January 2015, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit

More information

Election and Legislative Update for Healthcare Providers 2012 Southeast Healthcare Provider Conference September 25, 2012

Election and Legislative Update for Healthcare Providers 2012 Southeast Healthcare Provider Conference September 25, 2012 Election and Legislative Update for Healthcare Providers 2012 Southeast Healthcare Provider Conference September 25, 2012 Mary Moore Hamrick Grant Thornton LLP Stephanie Kennan McGuireWoods Consulting

More information

Voting: Issues, Problems, and Systems. Voting I 1/36

Voting: Issues, Problems, and Systems. Voting I 1/36 Voting: Issues, Problems, and Systems Voting I 1/36 Each even year every member of the house is up for election and about a third of the senate seats are up for grabs. Most people do not realize that there

More information

CALIFORNIA S VOTERS FIRST ACT. CALIFORNIA STATE AUDITOR Elaine M. Howle Presented by Sharon Reilly Chief Counsel

CALIFORNIA S VOTERS FIRST ACT. CALIFORNIA STATE AUDITOR Elaine M. Howle Presented by Sharon Reilly Chief Counsel CALIFORNIA S VOTERS FIRST ACT CALIFORNIA STATE AUDITOR Elaine M. Howle Presented by Sharon Reilly Chief Counsel CITIZENS TO REDRAW CALIFORNIA S ASSEMBLY & SENATE DISTRICTS Page 2 DISCLAIMER ABOUT THE CALIFORNIA

More information

Accountability, Divided Government and Presidential Coattails.

Accountability, Divided Government and Presidential Coattails. Presidential VS Parliamentary Elections Accountability, Divided Government and Presidential Coattails. Accountability Presidential Coattails The coattail effect is the tendency for a popular political

More information

The Case of the Disappearing Bias: A 2014 Update to the Gerrymandering or Geography Debate

The Case of the Disappearing Bias: A 2014 Update to the Gerrymandering or Geography Debate The Case of the Disappearing Bias: A 2014 Update to the Gerrymandering or Geography Debate Nicholas Goedert Lafayette College goedertn@lafayette.edu May, 2015 ABSTRACT: This note observes that the pro-republican

More information

9. Some industries like oil and gas companies largely support candidates. A) Democrats B) Republicans C) Libertarians D) Independent candidates

9. Some industries like oil and gas companies largely support candidates. A) Democrats B) Republicans C) Libertarians D) Independent candidates Name: Date: 1. is the constitutional clause that delegates control of elections to the state governments. A) Time, place, and manner clause B) Time and place clause C) Time clause D) Election clause 2.

More information

2018 State Legislative Elections: Will History Prevail? Sept. 27, 2018 OAS Episode 44

2018 State Legislative Elections: Will History Prevail? Sept. 27, 2018 OAS Episode 44 The Our American States podcast produced by the National Conference of State Legislatures is where you hear compelling conversations that tell the story of America s state legislatures, the people in them,

More information

THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER

THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER August 19, 2014 TIGHT RACES IN BOTH NH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. UNH Survey Center

More information

2016 GOP Nominating Contest

2016 GOP Nominating Contest 2015 Texas Lyceum Poll Executive Summary 2016 Presidential Race, Job Approval & Economy A September 8-21, 2015 survey of adult Texans shows Donald Trump leading U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz 21-16, former U.S. Secretary

More information

LEARNING OBJECTIVES After studying Chapter 10, you should be able to: 1. Explain the functions and unique features of American elections. 2. Describe how American elections have evolved using the presidential

More information

2008 Electoral Vote Preliminary Preview

2008 Electoral Vote Preliminary Preview 2008 Electoral Vote Preliminary Preview ʺIn Clinton, the superdelegates have a candidate who fits their recent mold and the last two elections have been very close. This year is a bad year for Republicans.

More information

American political campaigns

American political campaigns American political campaigns William L. Benoit OHIO UNIVERSITY, USA ABSTRACT: This essay provides a perspective on political campaigns in the United States. First, the historical background is discussed.

More information

Persistent Economic Discontent Casts a Continuing Political Pall

Persistent Economic Discontent Casts a Continuing Political Pall ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: POST-ELECTION POLITICS EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2010 Persistent Economic Discontent Casts a Continuing Political Pall Congressional Republicans

More information

The Battleground: Democratic Perspective April 25 th, 2016

The Battleground: Democratic Perspective April 25 th, 2016 The Battleground: Democratic Perspective April 25 th, 2016 Democratic Strategic Analysis: By Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Olivia Myszkowski The Political Climate The tension and anxiety recorded in

More information

New message platform for 2018 s key battlegrounds Findings from Wave 1 of Battleground web-panel & phone survey. May 2018

New message platform for 2018 s key battlegrounds Findings from Wave 1 of Battleground web-panel & phone survey. May 2018 New message platform for 2018 s key battlegrounds Findings from Wave 1 of Battleground web-panel & phone survey May 2018 Innovative new research program BATTLEGROUND PHONE POLL ON-GOING RAE+ BATTLEGROUND

More information

Wednesday, March 7 th

Wednesday, March 7 th Parties and Politics 1 Wednesday, March 7 th Final version of Essay 1 version due in lab tomorrow or Friday Film #2: Glory on Wednesday, March 14 th and Thursday, March 15 th in 140 JSB at 5:00 and 7:30

More information

TUESDAY, MARCH 22, 2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11

TUESDAY, MARCH 22, 2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11 ARIZONA E L E C T I O N D A Y : TUESDAY, MARCH 22, 2016 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11 TOTAL POPULATION (2014): 6,731,484 LATINO POPULATION (2014): 2,056,456 Since 2000, Arizona has seen one particularly

More information

New Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll Shows Bill Nelson Vulnerable to Defeat in 2012

New Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll Shows Bill Nelson Vulnerable to Defeat in 2012 ! For Immediate Release: Contact: Janelle Pepe February 15, 2011 (850) 222-1996 New Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll Shows Bill Nelson Vulnerable to Defeat in 2012 Tallahassee Florida s Senior U.S. Senator

More information

United States: Midterm Elections and U.S. Economy

United States: Midterm Elections and U.S. Economy OCTOBER, 18 ECONOMIC VIEWPOINT United States: Midterm Elections and U.S. Economy #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA Will the November 6 Congressional Elections Influence the Economy? The U.S. midterm

More information

11.002/17.30 Making Public Policy 9/29/14. The Passage of the Affordable Care Act

11.002/17.30 Making Public Policy 9/29/14. The Passage of the Affordable Care Act Essay #1 MIT Student 11.002/17.30 Making Public Policy 9/29/14 The Passage of the Affordable Care Act From Johnson to Nixon, from Clinton to Obama, American presidents have long wanted to reform the American

More information

Energized Against Donald Trump, Democrats Reach +14 in the Midterms

Energized Against Donald Trump, Democrats Reach +14 in the Midterms ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: The 2018 Midterms EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 4, 2018 Energized Against Donald Trump, Democrats Reach +14 in the Midterms With their supporters energized

More information

Voting: Issues, Problems, and Systems

Voting: Issues, Problems, and Systems Voting: Issues, Problems, and Systems 3 March 2014 Voting I 3 March 2014 1/27 In 2014 every member of the house is up for election and about a third of the senate seats will be up for grabs. Most people

More information

Affordable Care Act & Legislative Update

Affordable Care Act & Legislative Update Affordable Care Act & Legislative Update April 19, 2016 Laura Appel, Senior Vice President, Strategic Initiatives Dave Finkbeiner, Senior Vice President, Advocacy 1 2010 But before a single Michigan resident

More information

Amy Tenhouse. Incumbency Surge: Examining the 1996 Margin of Victory for U.S. House Incumbents

Amy Tenhouse. Incumbency Surge: Examining the 1996 Margin of Victory for U.S. House Incumbents Amy Tenhouse Incumbency Surge: Examining the 1996 Margin of Victory for U.S. House Incumbents In 1996, the American public reelected 357 members to the United States House of Representatives; of those

More information

VIRGINIA: GOP TRAILING IN CD10

VIRGINIA: GOP TRAILING IN CD10 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Tuesday, 26, tact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769 (cell);

More information

Americans fear the financial crisis has far-reaching effects for the whole nation and are more pessimistic about the economy than ever.

Americans fear the financial crisis has far-reaching effects for the whole nation and are more pessimistic about the economy than ever. CBS NEWS POLL For Release: Wednesday, October 1st, 2008 3:00 pm (EDT) THE BAILOUT, THE ECONOMY AND THE CAMPAIGN September 27-30, 2008 Americans fear the financial crisis has far-reaching effects for the

More information

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, July, 2016, 2016 Campaign: Strong Interest, Widespread Dissatisfaction

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, July, 2016, 2016 Campaign: Strong Interest, Widespread Dissatisfaction NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE JULY 07, 2016 FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Bridget Johnson,

More information

What do you know about how our president is elected?

What do you know about how our president is elected? What do you know about how our president is elected? The Electoral College When we talk about this election process, we say that our president and vice president are elected by the Electoral College.

More information

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE: MIDSUMMER July 7-14, 2008

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE: MIDSUMMER July 7-14, 2008 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Tuesday July 15, 2008 6:30 P.M. EDT THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE: MIDSUMMER July 7-14, 2008 Democrat Barack Obama now holds a six-point edge over his Republican rival

More information

Research Brief. Resegregation in Southern Politics? Introduction. Research Empowerment Engagement. November 2011

Research Brief. Resegregation in Southern Politics? Introduction. Research Empowerment Engagement. November 2011 Research Brief Resegregation in Southern Politics? David A. Bositis, Ph.D. November 2011 Civic Engagement and Governance Institute Research Empowerment Engagement Introduction Following the election of

More information