Obtained by KeystoneReport.com

Transcription

1 Current Pennsylvania Polling December 7, 2015 Contact: Doug Kaplan, Executive Summary Winter Springs, Fla. - Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm based in Winter Springs, Fla, conducted a random survey of 835 likely Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania s 9 th Congressional District regarding their opinion about U.S. Rep. Bill Shuster. The Gravis Marketing poll was conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology), weighted by voting and has a margin of error of ± 3.4%. The Gravis Marketing poll began by asking likely Republican primary voters about their opinions on the direction that leadership in Washington should take in regard to growing issues that concern voters. When asked, From the following list of issues, please tell me which one should be the top priority for the federal government, 42 percent indicated that immigration and border control should be Washington s foremost concern. Republican voters also indicated that focusing on moral and family value issues is also a primary concern and that leaders representing the them in Washington should be of high moral character. The focus of the survey then shifted to asking these 835 likely Republican voters their opinions of Congressman Shuster, whose professional ethics and re-electability have come into question for multiple reasons in recent months. When asked first, In your opinion, do you think Congressman Bill Shuster deserves to be re-elected to a 9 th term in Congress, or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance to do a better job, more than half of those asked, 54 percent, indicated that they believe that a new candidate should be elected to replace the incumbent Shuster. The Gravis poll then continued by probing the reasons why the majority of Republican voters suggest a change is needed in leadership in Washington. The voters were asked, Bill Shuster s professional ethics are currently being questioned by watchdog groups because Shuster aggressively pushed legislation on behalf of a special-interest lobbyist with whom he was having an extra-marital affair. Does this fact make you more likely or less likely to re-elect Bill Shuster this coming April? Once again, more than half of those polled, this time 56 percent, indicated that Mr. Shuster s political ethics and infidelity issues have impacted their support for his reelection. Furthermore, when voters were asked, After his divorce a year ago, Bill Shuster moved his permanent residence from Pennsylvania to the Washington, D.C. suburbs and no longer lives in our area. Does this fact make you more likely or less likely to re-elect Bill Shuster this coming May? An overwhelming majority of 63 percent indicated that this fact has negatively impacted their decision to vote for him in the upcoming election in May.

2 These two pressing issues are not the only ones that have impacted Congressman Shuster s ability to represent those living in Pennsylvania. His voting record and support for the so-called Cromnibus bill, which the prominent anti-tax group Heritage Action referred to as a blank check for amnesty, have also hurt his campaign. The voters were specifically asked in the Gravis Marketing poll, Last year, Congressman Shuster voted for legislation that was called a blank check for amnesty by America s leading taxpayer group. Congressman Shuster also pressured other Congressmen to vote for this proamnesty legislation. Does this make you more likely or less likely to re-elect Bill Shuster this coming May? Among the 835 registered Republican voters asked, 67 percent stated emphatically that his voting record on this issue has convinced the voters to be less likely to support his reelection. Voters were also asked about his voting record on raising the debt ceiling five times recently and whether this impacts their decision to search for a more qualified candidate. Once again, the majority of voters, 66 percent, agree that his moral, ethical and family value issues are not the only reasons the candidate appears to be unelectable. A final but significant contributing element to Congressman Shuster s re-elect numbers being upside down appears to be the very strong feelings of likely Republican voters in his district toward term limits. A remarkable 83 percent of the respondents said they agree with the statement, There should be a limit on the number of terms one person can hold the same congressional seat. Gravis Marketing then concluded by asking voters about their opinion on Congressman Shuster s opponent in the Republican primary election - Art Halvorson, who is a veteran of the Coast Guard, a small businessman, and a social and fiscal conservative. If the primary election were held tomorrow, 52 percent stated that they would currently cast a vote for Halvorson, while only 13 percent stated they would vote for Shuster. At the time of the poll, 35 percent remain undecided on which candidate they would choose to represent them in Washington DC From the following list of issues, please tell me which one should be the top priority for the federal government? Crosstabs are available on pp. 1 2 of the crosstabs report. Among the remaining choices, which of these issues should be the top priority for the federal government to address? Crosstabs are available on pp. 2 3 of the crosstabs report.

3 I am going to ask your opinion of Congressman Bill Shuster (SHOO-stir). Would you consider your opinion of him? Crosstabs are available on pp. 3 4 of the crosstabs report. In your opinion, do you think Congressman Bill Shuster deserves to be re-elected to an 9th term in Congress, or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance to do a better job? Crosstabs are available on pp. 5 6 of the crosstabs report. Bill Shuster inherited his seat in Congress from his father, Bud Shuster, who had been the congressman for 28 years prior to his son taking over. Does this fact make you more likely or less likely to re-elect Bill Shuster this coming May? Crosstabs are available on pp. 6 7 of the crosstabs report. Bill Shuster s professional ethics are currently being questioned by watchdog groups because Shuster aggressively pushed legislation on behalf of a special-interest lobbyist with whom he was having an extra-marital affair. Does this fact make you more likely or less likely to re-elect Bill Shuster this coming May? Crosstabs are available on pp. 7 8 of the crosstabs report.

4 After his divorce a year ago, Bill Shuster moved his permanent residence from Pennsylvania to Washington, D.C. suburbs and no longer lives in our area. Does this fact make you more likely or less likely to re-elect Bill Shuster this coming May? Crosstabs are available on pp of the crosstabs report. Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement: There should be a limit on the number of terms one person can hold the same congressional seat. Crosstabs are available on pp of the crosstabs report. Last year, Congressman Shuster voted for legislation that was called a blank check for amnesty by American s leading taxpayer group. Congressman Shuster also pressured other Congressman to vote for this pro-amnesty legislation. Does this make you more likely or less likely to re-elect Bill Shuster this coming May? Crosstabs are available on pp of the crosstabs report. Congressman Shuster has voted five times to increase the national debt limit by a total of $3.4 trillion. Does this make you more likely or less likely to re-elect Bill Shuster this coming May? Crosstabs are available on pp of the crosstabs report.

5 Congressman Shuster s opponent in the Republican primary election is Art Halvorson, who is a veteran of the Coast Guard, a small businessman, and a social and fiscal conservative who is not a politician and is not supported by party bosses. If the election were tomorrow, would you vote for? Crosstabs are available on pp of the crosstabs report. Demographics What is your gender? How old are you? In April, there will be a primary election to choose the Republican nominee for Congress. At this time, do you plan to: