Foster McCollum White & Associates

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1 Its official, Paul Ryan has created a significant bounce for Mitt Romney and down the ballot as well, creating a new challenge for President Obama and Democrats, per (FMW) B poll. August 18, 2012 Contact: Eric Foster Cell efoster@fostermccollumwhite.com Contact: Tarek Baydoun Cell baydounconsulting@gmail.com Contact: Jacqueline McCollum Cell jmccollum@fostermccollumwhite.com President Obama s and Senator Stabenow s leads in Michigan have slipped away. Romney and Pete Hoekstra have pulled in front by a small margin in the Presidential and Senate contest. So far, Congressman Ryan is a hit in Michigan. In what can only be termed as a significant turn of events, Mitt Romney s selection of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has turned the Michigan presidential battle on its head. In the Foster McCollum White Baydoun poll for Fox 2 News Detroit of Michigan most likely voters in June, President Obama had a slight lead of 1.14 points (46.89% to 45.48%), within the margin of error. In the past seven weeks, not only has Mitt Romney stayed close, but now he has vaulted to the lead in Michigan. Our poll finding suggests that the naming of Paul Ryan as his running mate has given him the spark he needed. Romney now leads in Michigan by 3.8 points, a net gain of 5.21 points from June (Romney 47.68% to Obama 43.88%). The positive turn for Mitt Romney is also helping former Congressman Pete Hoekstra. Hoekstra has erased a 9.68 point deficit just before his primary victory in August and now has a 2.35 point lead over 2 term Senator Debbie Stabenow (48.28% Hoekstra to 45.93% for Stabenow). What this means is Michigan will be ground zero for not just the Presidential campaign but also the national battle between the Republican Party and Democratic Party for control of the U.S. Senate. The past week for President Obama was not helpful to his numbers, per Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. The campaign is very fluid, as we identified in June, the President s campaign needs to shift its focus towards presenting more of a business case narrative of why voters should re-elect President Obama while better defining why Romney/Ryan is not good for America. The data prompts further study by the Obama team, Democratic Party and related supporters into the declining support for the President in what was a safe state for him, stated Attorney Tarek Baydoun, statistical analyst for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. In a state with a significant senior citizen voting population, the overall support for Congressman Ryan s budget plan must be very troubling for the President and his team. 1

2 Additionally, the polling data suggests a dip in interest among voters in Democratic leaning regions (Southeastern Michigan, the Thumb Region and Major 17 County Cluster) Congressional Districts (5 th, 13 th and 14 th ) and Minority voters. This dip in interest would not only hurt President Obama, but also Democratic down ballot candidates and ballot initiatives. President Obama and Democrats must get the interest and excitement levels up in their voting regions to counter balance Romney/Ryan, states Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. If Mitt Romney is able to excite Republican regions of the state with Paul Ryan and increase their share of turnout to 2010 proportions, Democrats will have a difficult night across the state. Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW) B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy, Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn, Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 general election voters to determine their voting and issue preferences for: A. The baseline for Presidential Preference. B. The baseline for the impact of Rep. Paul Ryan s entry into the Presidential Campaign. C. The baseline for United State Senate General Election Preference. D. Voters preference for intervention in Middle East foreign affairs. This ten question automated poll survey was conducted on August 16, 2012 and was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit. The margin of error for this polling sample is 2.35% with a confidence level of 95%. To view the reports of our polling studies on the United States Senate and other political topics for Fox 2 News online, please click the following link - United States Presidential General Election Match up In what will be a significant blow to Democratic campaign efforts, native son Mitt Romney has climbed into the lead in Michigan s Presidential contest. The naming of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has delivered a targeted affect on the Michigan and Midwest campaign dynamics. We ballot tested the Presidential candidates and we also tested the following two areas of initial campaign impact and awareness: Congressman Ryan s impact on voters decision to vote for Mitt Romney. Congressman Ryan s controversial 2012 fiscal budget plan and voters support or opposition to the plan. It is our conclusion that the results to these questions will help initially either validate Ryan s selection or provide messaging for Democrats that Ryan is not acceptable to the voters. As our data outlines, currently Romney and Ryan are received positively enough to help vault Romney into the lead. Our aggregate findings for this section are as follows: 2

3 State-wide Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gender & ethnicity of electorate, percentages do not all equal 100%) 1733 Respondents MOE +/- 2.35% Question 1: The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, Who are you more likely to vote for in the election?? (Barack Obama): 43.88% (Mitt Romney): 47.68% (Another candidate): 3.96% (Undecided): 4.01% 4% 4% 44% Barack Obama Mitt Romney Another Candidate 48% Undecided Question #2: Republican nominee Mitt Romney has selected Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his vice presidential nominee. Does the selection of Paul Ryan make you more or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney in the United States Presidential election? (Paul Ryan makes you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney): 36.11% (Paul Ryan makes you less likely to vote for Mitt Romney): 27.90% (If the pick makes no difference in your choice): 36.85% 3

4 36% 36% Paul Ryan makes you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney Paul Ryan makes you less likely to vote for Mitt Romney 28% Paul Ryan makes no difference in your choice Question #3: Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has been selected as the Republican vice presidential nominee. Congressman Ryan has proposed federal budgets that drastically cut the federal deficit, cuts taxes on job creators and proposes the reform of Medicare and Social Security benefits. The Tea Party and business groups support Ryan s budget as fiscally responsible, reducing the size and cost of unsustainable programs. Democrats, senior citizens groups and a number of economists oppose Ryan s budget proposal citing it gives the richest Americans a tax cut, privatizes Social Security and Medicare and will have a negative effect on the economy. Do you support Congressman Ryan s budget plan for the federal government? (For strongly support): 34.77% (For somewhat support): 13.22% Total Support 47.99% (For strongly oppose): 41.59% (For somewhat oppose): 3.42% Total Oppose 45.01% (For undecided): 8.52% 4

5 3% 8% 34% Strongly support Ryan's Budget Plan Somewhat Support Ryan's Budget Plan Strongly Oppose Ryan's Budget Plan 42% Somewhat Oppose Ryan's Budget Plan Undecided 13% Romney has identified a clear game changer if his strategy is to divide the Midwest and blow a bugle in President Obama s Midwestern Strategy, states Eric Foster, chief pollster and President of Foster McCollum White & Associates. Romney may be attempting to isolate Illinois and Pennsylvania by having Michigan and Wisconsin in play. That also limited Obama s opportunity to strengthen resource and advertising in Ohio and Indiana if Michigan and Wisconsin are competitive. In spite of national criticism of the Ryan selection and budget plan, our findings suggest that Michigan voters are viewing both as positives for Romney % of Michigan voters are more likely to vote for Romney because of the Paul Ryan selection while only 27.90% are less likely to vote for Romney. That is a positive statistical advantage for Romney of 8.21 points or 29.42%. Tarek Baydoun, statistical analyst for Foster McCollum White Baydoun reflects, While Romney may have challenges connecting to voters, Paul Ryan seems to humanize him and make him more acceptable to voters like his wife Ann Romney does. Additionally the Ryan Budget plan is supported by a plurality of Michigan voters % support Ryan s budget which includes a major overhaul of Medicare and Social Security while 45.01% oppose the plan. What is statistically interesting is the fact that 41.59% of Michigan voters strongly oppose the plan and only 34.77% strongly support the plan. The margin for Ryan s plan comes from the soft supporters, who outnumber the soft opponents by a four to one margin (13.22% to 3.42%). 5

6 United States Senate General Election Match up The Michigan senate seat held by two term Senator Debbie Stabenow is considered a toss up to leaning Democrats by most D.C. pundits and analysis. In spite of a significant financial advantage and the benefit of bringing back federal investments into Michigan, Senator Stabenow expected to have a tough re-election campaign on her hands against either of the two Republican front runners. In our July 28 th poll for Fox 2 News, Senator Stabenow has a 52.60% to 42.92% lead (9.68 points) in head to head matchup against former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra. In the span of two weeks, Hoekstra has wiped out the gap and a narrow 2.35 point advantage. While the positive Hoekstra margin is within the margin of error, it represents a point shift in the campaign. The aggregate results for ballot matchup are listed below: Question 5: The 2012 United States Senate election will be held in November. Assuming Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow faces Republican Congressman Pete Hoekstra; who are you most likely to vote for? (Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow): 45.93% (Republican U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra): 48.28% (Another candidate): 2.88% (Undecided): 5.25% 5% 3% 45% Debbie Stabenow Pete Hoekstra Another Candidate Undecided 48% 6

7 The findings reflect two possible trends that are helping Hoekstra: The Paul Ryan Coattails effect The Super PAC ad campaign against Stabenow Our findings suggest that Congressman Ryan is having a positive impact on Hoekstra campaign as well. The fact that Ryan s budget mirrors a number of Hoekstra campaign talking points is helpful during this slight lull period in the direct campaign. Hoekstra is also benefitting from various Super PAC s that have started airing ads against Stabenow. While Stabenow has a direct financial advantage over Hoekstra, the Super PAC s are narrowing the field and defining her while Hoekstra conserves cash. Stabenow needs to ramp up and start reintroducing herself to Michigan voters now. She should not wait until after Labor Day or later in September. Key Findings Analysis United States Intervention in ongoing Middle East Conflicts Question #4: With the continuing violence in Syria, concerns about the recent election in Egypt and the continuing issues between Israel and Iran over Iran s nuclear program, some politicians such as Arizona Senator John McCain have called for military action in Syria and Iran, President Obama and most Democrats have favored drone strikes, diplomacy and economic sanctions. Do you believe America should actively intervene in Middle East affairs? (Yes, intervene with diplomatic and military actions): 31.15% (Yes, intervene with diplomatic efforts only): 25.20% (Yes, intervene with military action only): 4.20% (Do not intervene): 20.39% (Undecided): 23.56% 7

8 23% 29% Intervene with diplomatic & miltary action Intervene with diplomatic efforts only Intervene with military actions only 20% Do not intervene 4% 24% Undecided The findings reflect a general lack of appetite among Michigan voters for military intervention in Syria and the flashpoints in the Middle East. Michigan voters do desire diplomatic intervention, which may be reflective of their concerns about the citizens in these countries based on the destabilization that has occurred. Tarek Baydoun, statistical analyst for Foster McCollum White Baydoun reflects, "It is not surprising that so many Michigan voters are against military intervention in Middle East affairs. Fresh off of two failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is little tolerance for expensive and risky interventions abroad when the state and the country are facing so many domestic challenges. This would explain why hawkish politicians like Sen. John McCain can say what they want but neither presidential candidate is speaking seriously about military action despite undeniably dangerous instabilities developing in the Middle East and the failure of US and European diplomacy, sanctions, and covert operations in Syria and Iran." Data Summary Our data findings show that Michigan will be a very competitive state for both President and U.S. Senate. The interest gap we found based on the geographical and political regions of Michigan can also have a significantly negative impact for Democratic hopes in these contest and the other Downballot contest for November (1 st, 3 rd and 11 th Congressional District, Michigan Supreme Court, Michigan House of Representatives and various ballot proposals). Mitt Romney and Pete Hoekstra must continue to press their advantage during the next few weeks to build upon the Ryan Coattails. Additionally, Romney may want to let Ryan loose to sell his budget plan to voters in Michigan and other key states. 8

9 Conversely, Obama and Stabenow must get on the offensive now and define why voters need to stay the course and trust their fiscal and economic stewardship of the country. Additionally, they must define Paul Ryan as disconnected from the daily lives of Michigan voters and their perceived negative outcomes from his budget plan. Lastly, the campaigns must update their analytics for the November election. Old turnout models and partisan base projections will not help either side connect with voters. The findings show that Michigan s voters are more difficult to define then by a Democratic or Republican designation. The party that learns that and gets the related analytics models will achieve success in November. 9

10 Methodology - Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW) B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters to determine their voting and issue preferences on the Presidential election, United States Senate general election match-ups, the impact of Rep. Paul Ryan s addition to the Republican ticket as vice presidential nominee and the desire for intervention in Middle East foreign affairs. - This ten question automated poll survey was conducted on August 16, The population surveyed consisted of a sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters and voters that fit Michigan General Election voting patterns. The majority of these voters have participated in a significant majority of the available primary and general election and odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since their registration. Additionally, our call file does allow for random moderate and low participation voters to be included in the sample. Our call file was randomized to allow for the maximum range of participation and randomization. - An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election. - Forty-one thousand five hundred and fifty-two (41,552) calls were placed, and 1,733 respondents fully participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 4.17%. - Our list-based sample pool was pre-weighted for the gender, ethnicity and age demographics, geographical regions and political participation regions and the congressional districts in Michigan. For reporting purposes, we will focus our findings on the following issue-based categories: E. The baseline for Presidential Preference. F. The baseline for the impact of Rep. Paul Ryan s entry into the Presidential Campaign. G. The baseline for United State Senate General Election Preference. H. Voters preference for intervention in Middle East foreign affairs. 10

11 - We have made weighting adjustments to the aggregate baseline responses based on the following four groups who were underrepresented in our aggregate polling respondents: Male respondents 39.73% of respondent universe versus 46% of (FMW) B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election. African American respondents 6.41% of respondent universe versus 17.5% of (FMW) B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election. Asian American respondents 0.58% of respondent universe versus 2.0% of (FMW) B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election. Voters ages 18 to 30 years old 3.63% of respondent universe versus 16% of (FMW) B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election. Voters ages 31 to 50 years old 15.86% of respondent universe versus 25% of (FMW) B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election. - The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.35% with a confidence level of 95%. Our polling study produced sub-populations within each of the surveyed election contest. Results within the sub-populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross-tab and sub-population group as it exist. Cross tabulation groups for comparison purposes Age (White & Minority ages 51 to 65 and 66 & older sub categories) Gender (White male & Female & Minority Male and Female sub categories) Michigan Geographical Voter Regions Major 17 voting counties (Counties combined that traditionally represent 75% to 83% of the total voter participation rate in Michigan s State -wide elections) Next 7 Michigan County and Other 59 Michigan County regions Race/Ethnicity Religious affiliation Evangelical Christian, Catholic, Baptist, Non Evangelical Christian, Jewish, Muslim and other religious affiliations Voter Political Party Preference Democratic, Republican and Independent Michigan Congressional Districts Urban market communities (Detroit, Grand Rapids, Flint, Saginaw and other urban population centers in Michigan) Question Two respondent groups (More likely, less likely and no impact respondents) Question Three respondent groups (Support Ryan s budget plan, Oppose Ryan s Budget Plan) Question Four respondent groups (Full or partial Military intervention, diplomatic intervention only and Do not intervene) This poll was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW) B and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. 11

12 Data Analysis Statement The data has been separated analytically into cross tabulation results that are statistically significant with respect to Michigan General Election cycle statewide Any sectional analysis within the aforementioned categories can be useful when inferring strengths and weaknesses and possible strategy. For the assessment of individual cross tabulation categories, we use a correlation coefficient model based on the Pearson r correlation, also called linear or product- moment correlation. Pearson correlation (hereafter called correlation), assumes that the two variables are measured on at least interval scales and it determines the extent to which values of the two variables are "proportional" to each other. The value of correlation (i.e., correlation coefficient) does not depend on the specific measurement units used. Our proportional model for correlating the statistical relevance of a geographical region, age grouping or congressional district is based on the random proportionality of our respondent pool to the specific proportionality of the group s weight to the aggregate model. The correlation coefficient (r) represents the linear relationship between these two variables (aggregate and cross tabular category). The aggregate Michigan Statewide polling study sample size of 1,733 respondents has a 2.35% margin of error, with a confidence level of 95%. We project that any review of the polling report can allow for the statistical relationship between the aggregate and cross tabulation margin of error for the reported clusters. The poll sample was pre weighted for gender and ethnicity based upon Foster McCollum White Baydoun Predictive Voter Behavior Analysis Model for historic General Election demographics throughout Michigan. This poll was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. We strive to adhere to the principles and standards of the National Council on Public Polls and the American Association for Public Opinion Research in the gathering and reporting of polling data. 12