Spring Vanderbilt University Poll

Transcription

1 Spring Vanderbilt University Poll April 26 May 8, 2018 John G. Geer & Joshua D. Clinton, Co-Directors May 16, ,400 registered voters in Tennessee MoE: +/- 3.6 percentage points

2 Name Recognition of Candidates for Governor Over Time 10 86% % responding yes, have heard of 8 47% 41% 38% 26% 33% 68% 34% 53% 14% 14% 33% 13% 8% 1 49% 59% Dean Boyd Harwell Lee Fitzhugh Black May-17 Dec-18 May-18

3 10 Name Recognition of Candidates for Governor by Region 98% 8 82% 74% 71% 7 83% 88% 74% 57% 63% 46% 52% 44% 48% 31% 22% 31% 3 24% 18% 15% 13% 9% Dean Boyd Harwell Lee Fitzhugh Black East Nashville Central Memphis/West

4 Favorability of Gubernatorial Candidates Among those Who Recognize their Name % 53% 55% 45% 44% 46% 34% 13% 29% 17% 34% 25% 19% 35% 37% 27% 9% Dean (Name Rec. 47%) Boyd (Name Rec. 68%) Harwell (Name Rec. 53%) Lee (Name Rec. 33%) Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know Fitzhugh (Name Rec. 13%) Black (Name Rec. 86%)

5 Favorability of Republican Gubernatorial Candidates by Republicans % 56% 63% 71% 18% 16% 21% 22% 18% 18% 18% 11% Boyd Harwell Lee Black Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know

6 Favorability of Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates by Democrats % 55% 35% 19% 7% 1 Dean Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know Fitzhugh

7 Name Recognition of Senate Candidates 10 85% 84% % responding yes, have heard of 8 73% 65% Dec-17 May-18 Marsha Blackburn Phil Bredesen

8 Favorability of Senate Candidates by Respondents Who Recognize Their Name % 49% 38% Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know 25% 12% 7% Marsha Blackburn Phil Bredesen

9 Favorability of Senate Candidates Among People Who Recognize Their Name by Party ID 10 % responding have a favorable opinion 8 72% 23% 44% 52% 85% 69% Republicans Democrats Independents Marsha Blackburn Phil Bredesen

10 Matching Up Favorability of Senate Candidates % 24% 42% 5% Favorable to both Blackburn and Bredesen Unfavorable to both Blackburn and Bredesen Favorable to Blackburn but not Bredesen Favorable to Bredesen but not Blackburn

11 Job Approval of Elected Officials Over Last Year % 48% 53% 61% 63% 66% 5 53% 52% 44% 47% 49% Donald Trump Bill Haslam Lamar Alexander Bob Corker May-17 52% 61% 5 52% Dec-17 48% 63% 44% 47% May-18 53% 66% 53% 49%

12 10 Opinions on Medicaid Expansion by Party ID Tennessee is one of 18 states that has chosen not to expand Medicaid, which would allow more low-income uninsured adults to have health insurance. Overall, do you support or oppose Medicaid expansion in Tennessee? 89% 8 66% 66% 48% 46% Support Total Republican Democrat Independent Oppose

13 Opinion on Medicaid Expansion(among those originally against)when a Work-Requirement is Introduced by Party ID N=428 Some states require low-income, able-bodied adults without children to work in order to receive health insurance through Medicaid. Would you still oppose Medicaid Expansion in Tennessee if low income, able-bodied adults without children were required to work in order to receive Medicaid benefits, or would you now support 10 expansion. 8 68% 67% 65% 72% 3 31% 32% 26% Support if work requirement Still oppose even with work requirement Total Republican Democrat Independent

14 Opinions on School Officials Carrying Guns in Schools by Party ID Do you favor allowing teachers and school officials to carry a gun in school if they meet certain requirements, or do you oppose this? % 76% 49% 49% 46% 52% 23% 26% Favor Oppose Total Republicans Democrats Independents

15 Opinions on Parkland Student Protests by Party ID Thinking about the high school shooting in Parkland, Florida this past February Do you think those high school students and their protests against gun violence are having a generally positive impact or a generally negative impact on the gun control 10 debate in this country? 8 82% 74% 5 59% 47% 38% 22% 16% Positive Negative Total Republicans Democrats Independents

16 Views on Opioid Addiction in Tennessee December May 2018 Do you think the opioid addiction in the state of Tennessee is a state of emergency, a major problem but not an emergency, a minor problem or not a problem at all? 52% 45% 39% 34% 8% 9% 3% 3% State emergency Major problem but not an emergency Minor problem Not a problem at all Dec-17 May-18

17 Views on Children of Undocumented Immigrants and In-State Tuition by Party ID % 65% 65% 5 46% 32% 32% 13% Yes, they should be eligible Total Republican Democrat Independent No, they should not be eligible

18 Top 3 Priorities of TN State Government Over Time Which of the following do you think should be the top priority of the Tennessee state government? % 48% 21% 12% 18% 18% 1 15% 44% 31% 31% 28% 27% 27% 29% 24% 24% 18% 17% 18% 19% 17% 36% 29% 24% 3 28% 21% 21% 22% 31% 27% 23% May 2012 Dec May 2013 Dec May 2014 Nov May 2015 Nov May 2016 Nov Economy Health Care Education May 2017 Dec May 2018

19 Top Four Priorities For Tennessee State Government by Party ID % 27% 25% 27% 21% 22% 21% 18% 18% 18% 16% 17% 14% Education Economy Health Care Infrastructure Total Republican Democrat Independent

20 Top Four Priorities For Tennessee State Government by Region % 27% 26% 24% 21% 19% 19% 13% 26% 22% 23% 19% 15% 16% 16% 17% Education Economy Health Care Infrastructure East Nashville Central Memphis/West

21 Opinion on Local Government Autonomy From the State by Party ID Do you think (local governments have the right to make decisions on local matters without financial penalties from the state government such as reduced funding), or do you think (the state government should be permitted to impose financial penalties on a local government if the state disagrees with them on a local issue)? % 53% 63% 55% 32% 35% 3 3 Total Republican Democrat Independent 1 9% 7% 14% Local governments have the right to make decision on local matters w/o financial penalty from state State government should be permitted to impose financial penalties on local government Don't know

22 10 Opinion on Type of Community the Federal Government Helps Most 8 Total Republican 52% 52% 57% 48% Democrat Independent 37% 38% 32% More to help people living in and around large cities 3% 2% 6% 2% More to help people living in rural areas and small towns Helps both about equally

23 10 Opinion on Type of Community State Government Helps Most 8 Total Republican 54% 52% 49% 57% Democrat Independent 34% 38% 32% 36% More to help people living in and around large cities 5% 2% 1 3% More to help people living in rural areas and small towns Helps both about equally

24 Opinions on Teachers Salaries by Party ID Do you think public school teachers in Tennessee are currently being paid too much, not enough, or about the right amount? 10 89% 8 77% 72% 77% Total Republicans Democrats Independents 16% 18% 1% 1% 1% 1% 7% Too much Not enough About the right amount 6% 7% 3% 4% Don't know

25 Opinions on Teachers Salaries and Statewide Testing Results by Party ID Should teacher s whose students do well on statewide tests get paid more than teachers whose students do poorly 10 on tests? 8 65% 69% 65% Total Republicans 3 37% 32% Democrats Independents 23% 7% 3% 2% Yes No Don't know 2%