13 th Vanderbilt University Poll

Transcription

1 13 th Vanderbilt University Poll April 25 - May 11, 2016 John G. Geer & Joshua D. Clinton, Co-Directors May 19, ,001 registered voters in Tennessee MoE: +/- 4.2 percentage points

2 % APPROVE Obama Approval Over Time 45% 41% 42% 39% 41% 36% 34% 35% 28% Feb May 2012 Dec May 2013 Dec May 2014 Nov May 2015 Nov s Poll: N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2 %

3 Approval of Haslam & State Legislature Over Time 8 % APPROVE 61% 49% 64% 51% 53% 68% 63% 61% 51% 53% 58% 49% 7 67% 55% 55% 65% 54% 63% 52% Feb May 2012 Dec May 2013 Dec May 2014 Nov May 2015 Nov Governor Bill Haslam Tennessee State Legislature Poll Av. = 64% Poll Av. = 52% s Poll: N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2 %

4 Approval of Tennessee Senators Over Time 8 % APPROVE 56% 52% 59% 55% 55% 53% 52% 49% 49% 49% 52% 53% 51% 49% 52% 51% 48% 48% May 2012 Dec May 2013 Dec May 2014 Nov May 2015 Nov Lamar Alexander Poll Av. = 51% Bob Corker Poll Av. = 52% s Poll: N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2 %

5 Approval of State Leaders by Partisanship % 74% 64% 68% 42% 57% 61% 47% 46% 43% 35% 54% 39% 65% 48% 61% Haslam Alexander Corker State Legislature Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

6 Joint Approval of Governor and State Legislature 5 19% 21% 11% Approve of both Approve of Haslam but disapprove of State Legislature Approve of State Legislature but disapprove of Haslam Disapprove of both N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

7 Top 3 Priorities of TN State Government Over Time Which of the following do you think should be the top priority of the Tennessee state government? % 48% 21% 12% 18% 18% 1 15% 44% 31% 28% 27% 27% 24% 24% 17% 18% 19% 17% 31% 29% 18% May 2012 Dec May 2013 Dec May 2014 Nov May 2015 Nov Economy Health Care Education s Poll: N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2 %

8 Perceptions of the Economy 8 66% 67% 67% % VERY GOOD OR FAIRLY GOOD 24% 44% 23% 53% 52% 33% 31% 32% 32% 64% 39% 48% 61% 44% 49% Feb May 2012 Dec May 2013 Dec May 2014 Nov May 2015 Nov TN economy U.S. economy s Poll: N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2 %

9 Optimism About the Future of Nation & State When you think about the future of [the United States/Tennessee], which do you agree with more? 8 67% 55% 28% United States Best days are ahead of us Best days are behind us Tennessee N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

10 % BEST DAYS ARE AHEAD OF US Optimism About the Future of Nation & State by Partisanship When you think about the future of [the United States/Tennessee], which do you agree with more? 8 63% 64% 67% 71% 61% 38% 24% 24% United States Tennessee Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

11 Feelings About State vs. National Government Some people say they are basically content with the way the [national/state] government works today, others say they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which of these best describes how you feel? 8 64% 63% 1 24% 25% 1 National government State government Basically content Frustrated Angry N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

12 Feelings About National Government by Partisanship Some people say they are basically content with the way the national government works today, others say they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which of these best describes how you feel? 8 62% 59% 67% 52% 33% 42% 19% 5% 8% 6% 14% 24% Basically content Frustrated Angry Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=486; MoE: +/- 5.2%

13 Feelings About State Government by Partisanship Some people say they are basically content with the way the state government works today, others say they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which of these best describes how you feel? 8 71% 68% 53% 53% 37% 28% 17% 1 9% 9% Basically content Frustrated Angry Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=515; MoE: +/- 5.1%

14 Preferences for Compromise by Partisanship Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right? (1) I would prefer my legislators work with members of the other political party even if it means they have to compromise on some of their values and priorities...or... (2) I would prefer my legislators pursue their own values and priorities even if it means they are unwilling to work with members of the other political party % 76% 54% 51% 46% 13% 21% Work with members of the other party even if it means compromising on values and priorities Pursue own values and priorities even if it means they are unwilling to work with the other party Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=486; MoE: +/-5.2%

15 Blame for National Problems by Partisanship To the extent that the national government has failed to solve important problems, who do you think is most to blame? % 52% 45% 64% 32% 27% 13% 13% 7% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members Democrats Republicans Both equally Neither N=486; MoE: +/-5.2%

16 Support for Insure Tennessee Over Time Many public officials in Tennessee are considering implementing Insure Tennessee, a program proposed by Governor Haslam that would expand health insurance coverage to 280,000 low-income people without health insurance in the state. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, neither support nor oppose, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose expanding health care coverage for low-income people in the state? 8 64% 64% 63% 19% 16% 17% 13% 16% 12% May 2015 November 2015 Strongly or somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Strongly or somewhat oppose s Poll: N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2 %

17 Future of the Health Care System by Partisanship Which of the following comes closest to your view of the future of the U.S. health care system? 54% 55% 44% 36% 37% 35% 32% 21% 7% 18% Health care law should be repealed and NOT replaced 17% 1% 1 Health care law should be repealed and replaced with a Republicansponsored alternative 12% 12% Lawmakers should build on existing health care law to improve affordability and access to care 18% 5% 21% 6% U.S. should establish guaranteed universal health coverage through a single government plan All respondents Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=485; MoE: +/- 5.2%

18 Views on Same-Sex Marriage How much do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to legally marry? Would you say you: 8 54% 59% 54% 54% 26% 3 23% 22% 33% 14% 14% 14% Nov May 2015 Nov Strongly or somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Strongly or somewhat oppose s Poll: N=511; MoE: +/- 5.1%

19 Views on Same Sex Marriage By Age How much do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to legally marry? Would you say you: 8 61% 67% 43% 34% 33% 47% 23% 14% 27% 11% 11% Strongly or somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Strongly or somewhat oppose N=511; MoE: +/- 5.1%

20 Support for Contesting Same-Sex Marriage Ruling The Tennessee State Legislature recently considered trying to reverse the Supreme Court s decision legalizing same-sex marriage in all states in order to make same-sex marriage ILLEGAL in Tennessee. If this legislation were passed, the state could lose roughly $8.5 billion in federal aid. Would you support, neither support nor oppose, or oppose the efforts of the State Legislature to make same-sex marriage illegal, even if the state were to lose a substantial amount of federal funding? 5 39% 1 Strongly or somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Strongly or somewhat oppose N=490; MoE: +/- 5.2%

21 Views on Right to Refuse Service to Same-Sex Couples Over Time Should a business that provides services or products be allowed to refuse those services to same-sex couples for religious reasons, or should it be required to provide those services as it would to all other customers? 8 57% 49% 38% 45% Allowed to refuse services May 2015 Required to provide services N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

22 Support for Temporary Travel Ban for Muslims by Partisanship How much do you support or oppose a temporary ban on all Muslims traveling to the United States? 8 72% 62% 48% 47% 39% 32% 36% 3 14% Strongly or somewhat support 11% 12% 3% 19% 6% Neither support nor oppose Strongly or somewhat oppose All respondents Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=485; MoE: +/- 5.2%

23 Support for Additional Police Patrols of Muslim Neighborhoods by Partisanship How much do you support or oppose additional law enforcement patrols of Muslim neighborhoods in the state of Tennessee? 8 58% 44% 45% 45% 33% 32% 34% 22% 19% 23% 19% 13% 17% 24% Strongly or somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Strongly or somewhat oppose All respondents Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=516; MoE: +/- 5.1%

24 Importance of Diverse Schools How important is it for students in Tennessee to attend a school that is [racially/economically] diverse? 42% 36% 38% 33% 12% 7% 16% 9% Racially diverse Economically diverse Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not important at all N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

25 Importance of Diverse Schools by Partisanship How important is it for students in Tennessee to attend a school that is [racially/economically] diverse? % VERY OR SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT % 91% 74% 72% Racially diverse 61% 66% 65% Economically diverse Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

26 Views on State Regulation of Local Matters by Partisanship All in all, do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea for the Tennessee state government to more strictly regulate the way local governments handle local matters such as affordable housing initiatives, parks and recreation, or public works? 8 51% 53% 55% 61% 32% 34% 41% Good idea Bad idea All respondents Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

27 Views on Allowing University Staff to Carry Guns The State Legislature has been considering a bill that would allow full-time employees of public colleges and universities to carry handguns on campus with a valid permit. Guns would be blocked from disciplinary meetings or school-sponsored events like sports games but allowed in other places like classrooms. In general, do you support or oppose allowing fulltime employees of public colleges and universities to carry guns on campus with a valid permit, or do you oppose it? 8 59% 39% Support Oppose N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

28 Views on Constitutionality of Bible as State Book As you may know, Governor Haslam recently vetoed a bill passed by the State Legislature that sought to make the Bible the Official state book. In general, do you think that recognizing the Bible as the official state book would or would not have violated the Constitution and the separation of church and state? 47% 47% Would have Would not have N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

29 Views on Sanctity of Bible as State Book And in general, do you think that recognizing the Bible as the official state book alongside other state symbols would or would not have made light of the Bible as sacred text? 49% 38% 11% Would have Would not have Don't know N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

30 Views on Constitutionality & Sanctity of Bible as State Book As you may know, Governor Haslam recently vetoed a bill passed by the State Legislature that sought to make the Bible the official state book. In general, do you think that recognizing the Bible as the official state book would or would not have violated the Constitution and the separation of church and state? And in general, do you think that recognizing the Bible as the official state book alongside other state symbols would or would not have made light of the Bible as sacred text? 26% 29% 17% 12% 13% Would have violated the Constitution & would have made light of it Would have violated the Constitution but would NOT have made light of it Would NOT have violated the Constitution but would have made light of it Would NOT have violated the Constitution & would NOT have made light of it Answered "don't know" to both questions N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

31 Gas Tax Threshold As you may know, Tennessee is a pay-as-you-go state when it comes to transportation projects like road maintenance. This method means the state does not take on debt for future transportation projects. Well-maintained roadways are important to economic growth and public safety but recently, state officials have said that current funding sources are not enough to maintain Tennessee s roads and bridges. Would you be willing or not willing to pay [x] cents more per gallon on gas if it meant that more could be spent on projects to improve roads and bridges to help ensure economic growth? November % 8 54% 46% 46% 52% 47% 2 cents 8 cents 15 cents 8 cents 12 cents 16 cents s Poll: N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2 %

32 2016 Election: Trump vs. Clinton If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Hillary Clinton, the Democrat/Donald Trump, the Republican], for whom would you vote? 8 44% 35% 13% Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Neither/Would not vote N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

33 2016 Election: Trump vs. Clinton by Partisanship If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Hillary Clinton, the Democrat/Donald Trump, the Republican], for whom would you vote? % 78% 76% 34% 5% 7% 3% 12% Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members 19% Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Neither/would not vote 14% 5% N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

34 2016 Election: Trump vs. Clinton by Gender If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Hillary Clinton, the Democrat/Donald Trump, the Republican], for whom would you vote? 51% 39% 39% 31% 13% 14% Men Women Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Neither/would not vote N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%

35 2016 Election: Trump vs. Clinton, Pre vs. Post-Indiana If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Hillary Clinton, the Democrat/Donald Trump, the Republican], for whom would you vote? 33% 44% 45% 41% 16% 9% Pre-Indiana Post-Indiana Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Neither/would not vote N=1,001; MoE: +/- 4.2%