Global britain: a twenty-first Century Vision. By BoB Seely MP and JaMeS RogeRS

Transcription

1 Goba britain: a twenty-first Century Vision By BoB Seey MP and JaMeS RogeRS DEMOCRACY FREEDOM HUMAN RIGHTS February 2019

2 Pubished in 2019 by The Henry Jackson Society The Henry Jackson Society Mibank Tower Mibank ondon SW1P 4QP Registered charity no Te: +44 (0) The Henry Jackson Society, a rights reserved. The views expressed in this pubication are those of the author and are not necessariy indicative of those of The Henry Jackson Society or its Trustees. Tite: By Bob Seey MP and James Rogers isbn: where sod Front Cover image: by Maxim gertsen.

3 Goba britain: a twenty-first Century Vision By BoB Seey MP and JaMeS RogeRS DEMOCRACY FREEDOM HUMAN RIGHTS February 2019

4 about the authors bob seey is the Member of Pariament for the ise of Wight. He sits on the House of Commons Foreign affairs Seect Committee and is a Pariamentary Private Secretary. Mr Seey has written academicay and journaisticay on strategic doctrine and foreign affairs as we as more generay on non-conventiona and new forms of confict. He has aso been a research associate at the Changing Character of War Programme at the university of oxford. in 2018, Mr Seey wrote one of the few peer-reviewed definitions of Contemporary Russian Confict Strategy avaiabe in the West. Prior to his eection in June 2017, Mr Seey served on the afghanistan, iraq, ibya and isis campaigns as a member of the armed Forces. He was awarded a Joint Commanders Commendation in 2009 and a Miitary MBe in the 2016 operationa awards and Honours ist. From 1990 to 1994, Mr Seey ived in the Soviet union and post-soviet states, working as a foreign correspondent for The Times and as a specia correspondent for The Washington Post. He tweets is on and is on Facebook at: iowbobseey. His web address is: His academic and foreign affairs writing is avaiabe onine at: James rogers is director of the goba Britain Programme at the Henry Jackson Society, of which he is a founding member. From 2012 to 2017 he hed a range of positions at the Batic defence Coege in estonia, incuding acting dean, director of the department of Poitica and Strategic Studies, and ecturer in strategic studies. he has been an associate Feow (2013) and Visiting Feow (2008) at the european union institute for Security Studies in Paris. he has aso worked on projects for a range of organisations, incuding the deveopment, Concepts and doctrine Centre, Rand europe, the european Counci on Foreign Reations and the Roya institute for internationa Reations (egmont). He has given evidence to the Foreign affairs Committee in the Houses of Pariament, as we as the Subcommittee on Security and defence at the european Pariament. He hods a first-cass BSc econ (hons) in internationa Poitics and Strategic Studies from aberystwyth university and an MPhi in Contemporary european Studies from the university of Cambridge. 2

5 Contents FoReWoRd dr aan MendoZa...4 FoReWoRd THe RT. Hon. BoRiS JoHnSon MP...5 FoReWoRd ian austin MP...6 executive SuMMaRy goba BRiTain and grand STRaTegy goba BRiTain and THe THRee FReedoMS an audit of THe united KingdoM on THe WoRd STage WHaT Coud CHange? THe STaTe of THe WoRd and THe RiSe of authoritarianism See THe WoRd THRougH VaueS and interests using STRaTegy To SuPPoRT THe integration of goba PoiCy a nationa Strategy Counci Rebaancing spending on goba engagement a goba STRaTegy FoR goba BRiTain actions to promote Freedom for Trade actions to ensure Freedom from oppression actions to protect and project Freedom of Thought ConCuSion...37 endnotes

6 foreword Dr aan MenDoZa i am deighted to aunch this report as part of a ong-running series of papers by the goba Britain Programme at the Henry Jackson Society. Whie this programme does not pretend to have any monopoy on wisdom over the meaning and path of goba Britain, it hopes to educate the pubic on some of the possibiities that ay ahead for the united Kingdom as it embarks on a new nationa project of change and renewa. Goba Britain: A Twenty-First Century Vision co-authored by Bob Seey MP and James Rogers is the Henry Jackson Society s atest offering. it presents a range of possibiities the united Kingdom coud undertake to make the institutions and the instruments miitary and dipomatic of British state power more effective, particuary as the word enters a new age of fux and competition. as such, it is designed to provoke further discussion over the concept and reaisation of goba Britain. The vision Mr Seey and Mr Rogers provide in this report is of course their own, rather than a corporate one of the Henry Jackson Society. it has been extensivey peer-reviewed and we hope it wi start a conversation at the nationa eve, and wi ead to an educationa rippe effect as the ideas contained within are debated vigorousy in the months and years to come. as part of that process, we wi be pubishing other contributions on aspects of goba Britain to refect other views about our nation s possibe trajectory. any comments in reation to this paper wi of course be most wecome; indeed, i consider them positive or otherwise to form part of this crucia nationa debate. Readers are wecome to submit them to me at goba.britain@henryjacksonsociety.org. Dr aan Mendoza executive director, The Henry Jackson Society 4

7 foreword the rt. hon. boris Johnson MP it was ony a few weeks after the Russian state attempted to murder Sergei and yuia Skripa in Saisbury that Putin received a response that i don t beieve he had for a minute expected. a tota of 28 countries expeed 153 Russian spies not just in protest at the use of chemica weapons in Witshire, but aso out of sympathy for the uk. There has been nothing ike it in recent dipomatic history. each expusion represented a considerabe dipomatic cost for the country concerned; and the mere fact that those countries were prepared to bear that cost, and incur inevitabe Russian retaiation, was a tribute to the enormous infuence of the uk. as Bob Seey MP and James Rogers righty argue in this timey pamphet, we often underestimate that infuence. it is curious, they say, that senior mandarins sef-deprecatingy referring to the uk as a midde-ranking power, when according to some estimates this country s combination of miitary, poitica, cutura, financia, dipomatic, humanitarian and other capabiities mean that its goba reach and infuence is second ony to the united States. now is the time as we eave the eu to turbo-charge those advantages. it is time to join so many of our friends around the word in beieving in a truy goba Britain a project that is totay consistent with this country s history and instincts. The authors identify three great campaigns for goba Britain free trade, freedom from oppression, and freedom of thought and it is hard to disagree. They make some keen observations about the change in the threats that this country faces, notaby the growth in new subversive techniques, especiay in Russia (a speciaism of Bob Seey). They outine some of the opportunities we coud seize, with some creative thinking about improving our aready strong reations with the angosphere. They make the important distinction between countries with whom we share vaues, and countries with whom we share interests, and note that they two groups are by no means congruent. The authors are to be appauded for some radica thinking about reform of Whiteha, so as to make far better use of our overa overseas spending, and to ensure that these vast sums do more to serve the poitica and commercia interests of the country. This is an origina and important contribution to the debate, and wi give food for thought and encouragement to a who beieve in a goba Britain. the rt. hon. boris Johnson MP Member of Pariament for uxbridge and South Ruisip Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonweath affairs,

8 foreword ian austin MP The Henry Jackson Society does important and vauabe work in chaenging poiticians and poicy makers and educating the pubic on the need for a principed foreign poicy that puts the spread of freedom and democracy around the word at its heart. it is for this reason that i am peased to recommend this report Goba Britain: A Twenty-First Century Vision as a contribution to the society s mission. given the rise of revisionist and authoritarian states, it is particuary important to have a debate about how Britain might engage in deveoping a comprehensive nationa strategy to engage successfuy in a more voatie and competitive internationa environment. With their Three Freedoms, Bob Seey and James Rogers provide a pethora of ideas as to how the united Kingdom might be abe to maximise its potentia in the word over the years ahead. Their arguments are bod and insightfu, and deserve to provoke discussion about the future of "goba Britain". i was a proud supporter of the abour government's decision to create a department for internationa deveopment in 1997, increase overseas aid, write off debt and tacke poverty as Britain ed the internationa campaign for justice for the word s poorest peope. So whie i woud personay caution about merging dfid back into the Foreign and Commonweath office, as the report suggests might be possibe, or to radicay redefine what constitutes deveopment assistance, given that others have recognised our criteria as the internationa god standard, i am aso cear that the purpose of a report ike this is not for the reader or even an endorser ike me to agree with every singe idea within it. Whether or not you are convinced by a of its arguments, this report is designed to spark a nationa debate about our coective future. as such, it certainy raises serious questions that Westminster and Whiteha cannot eave unanswered. ian austin MP Member of Pariament for dudey north Member, House of Commons Foreign affairs Committee 6

9 executive summary goba Britain impies a nationa goba Strategy to express the nation s vaues and interests beyond our shores. Whist the united Kingdom (uk) has moved towards a more integrated approach to foreign poicy in recent months, it sti arguaby acks such a strategy. it shoud have one. This document is a contribution to that debate. Whist conventiona wars are in decine and much of humanity enjoys more enriched ives than before, the word has become a more chaenging pace now than at the end of the twentieth century. new forms of integrated confict and competition are being deveoped by rivas and potentia adversaries. The internationa rues-based system is under threat from authoritarian states that wish to change it (China) or undermine it (Russia). The batte for the twenty-first century is, in part, a strugge between open and cosed societies that wi shape the future of humanity. PoiCy recommendations strategy 1. three Goba Campaigns: The uk shoud base its goba strategy on championing three great, wordwide campaigns: 1. Freedom for Trade 2. Freedom from oppression 3. Freedom of Thought 2. nationa strategy Counci: Britain shoud estabish a nationa Strategy Counci to deveop a goba grand strategy and drive cross-government integration. This new nationa Strategy Counci shoud evove out of the existing nationa Security Counci. 3. nationa Goba strategy: every decade, the new nationa Strategy Counci shoud ead a nationa goba Strategy Review. This shoud be needs-driven, not cost-driven, and encompass future Strategic defence and Security Reviews. 4. overseas spending audit: The government shoud conduct an overseas Spending audit to ascertain its tota spending on goba engagement. structure 5. integration: To support the government s drive for integrated working across departments to deiver its goba strategy, the department for internationa deveopment (dfid) and department for internationa Trade (dit) shoud be amagamated into the Foreign and Commonweath office (FCo) as new agencies, simiar to the mode used in austraia and Canada. 6. Joint effects teams (Jets): integration shoud take pace at a eves. at embassy and regiona eve, integrated working through Joint effects Teams (JeTs) shoud be the institutionaised norm. 7. integrated ine Management: uk ambassadors and High Commissioners shoud have ine management of a staff, regardess of department, and be responsibe for deveoping integrated pans with departmenta and agency stakehoders. 7

10 8. singe ega Chain: Within teams, there shoud be a singe ega chain to speed decision-making, to prevent operations moving at the pace of the most risk averse government awyers. 9. a common set of pay and conditions: Such conditions shoud be impemented for overseas posts to prevent the iniquity of dipomats and civi servants doing simiar jobs for different rates of pay. 10. a Diaspora Goba advisory Counci: The FCo shoud estabish a diaspora goba advisory Counci to empower diaspora communities in the uk to support and deepen Britain s reationships with nations throughout the word. spending 11. british broadcasting Corporation: The BBC Word Service shoud be mandated by the FCo to become the goba broadcast of integrity on a major audio and visua patforms. it shoud be funded primariy from the internationa deveopment budget and that funding assured to enabe ong-term investment. Funding shoud be earmarked at up to 1 biion per annum. 12. uk Peacekeeping: a uk peacekeeping shoud be funded through overseas aid, with savings in the Mod budget used to increase the uk s miitary capabiity. 13. internationa Deveopment redefined: Whist humanitarian aid spending shoud be preserved, changes shoud be made to the definition of internationa deveopment to aow more spending to be channeed through the FCo and Ministry of defence (Mod). in addition, other reforms shoud be put in pace to ensure improved quaity of aid expenditure and vaue for money. 14. targets reaigned: The uk spends 0.7% of gross nationa income (gni) on officia deveopment assistance (oda), and then more on other overseas projects to promote internationa deveopment. The uk shoud cap the tota amount of spending on internationa deveopment incusive of oda at 0.7%. utimatey, this target shoud remain ony provided the uk gains the freedom to define aid as it sees fit. 15. uk internationa Deveopment fund: The 0.7% gni target shoud not be mandatory but woud depend on the quaity of the projects. unaocated funding shoud be put into a uk deveopment Fund unti projects are fuy formuated and/or to fund projects in foowing years. 16. Miitary and space Programmes: The uk shoud not provide oda to countries with advanced miitary or space programmes uness there is a cear strategic purpose. in genera, states with such programmes shoud be ineigibe for uk assistance. 17. hard power upift: as part of a more genera rebaancing of British goba spending, the uk shoud spend more on miitary power if its armed forces are to depoy in a meaningfu way aongside those of the united States (us), as we as ead in the strategic defence of europe and support CanZuK austraia, Canada and new Zeaand and other aies gobay. given that the internationa environment is becoming more dangerous, the uk shoud bring spending graduay and efficienty to historicay norma eves, i.e. 2.5% to 3% of gross domestic Product (gdp). 8

11 18. the angosphere and CanZuK: The uk shoud deepen ties with Canada, new Zeaand and austraia in a new CanZuK aiance covering trade, defence, academia and research, and visa and trave agreements. 19. Mutiateraism: as part of the uk s commitment to mutiateraism and the rues-based order, Britain shoud make a renewed investment in the united nations with greater support for its peacekeeping operations and key campaigns inked to the Three Freedoms, such as rue of aw. The uk shoud aso seek to champion a new round of free trade taks. 20. nationa resiience: Promoting the Three Freedoms abroad aso means ensuring their protection at home. Britain shoud make its eectora system and governance more resiient to foreign infuence. 9

12 1. Goba britain and GranD strategy What is goba Britain? athough the term was invoked during the 2016 european union (eu) Referendum campaign, Prime Minister Theresa May was the first to use it in a forma capacity in october 2016 to describe the united Kingdom (uk), post Brexit. 1 Boris Johnson, the then Foreign Secretary, expanded on it in a Chatham House speech on 2 december in his words: i have been repeatedy impressed by the way peope around the word are ooking for a ead from Britain, engagement from Britain. and so whether we ike it or not we are not some bit part or spear carrier on the word stage. We are a protagonist a goba Britain running a truy goba foreign poicy. 2 However, progress on the substance of goba Britain has been sow and it has yet to deveop into a nationa strategy. as the Pariamentary Foreign affairs Committee dryy commented in a recent report: The most frequent compaint we have heard... is that the ony thing that is cear about goba Britain is that it is uncear what it means, what it stands for or how its success shoud be measured. 3 For exampe, does Britain have what the great twentieth century strategist Basi idde-hart has caed a grand strategy the combination of the great toos of state power? The answer is no. We know this because Sir Simon Macdonad, the Permanent under-secretary at the Foreign and Commonweath office (FCo) and Head of the dipomatic Service, pedged to the Foreign affairs Committee to produce something in eary The uk does have a nationa Security Strategy and a nationa Security and defence Review, set in 2015, as we as a nationa Security Capabiity Review (2017) and a Modernising defence Programme (2018). However, as their names impy, they are defence and security focused and dea argey with threats. 5 Brexit requires a renewed and integrated commitment to goba engagement if the uk and its citizens are to continue to pay a prominent internationa roe. Brexit shoud not impy shrinking from the word but rather embracing it. indeed, athough the FCo has created 250 new posts and severa new embassies and high commissions overseas, 6 British eaders shoud think harder about how to use uk infuence, not ony to offset the oss of eu membership but aso to assert the nation s identity, vaues and interests in a competitive word. Britain is amost unique in being a member or signatory of 80 goba organisations and treaties. despite the ikeihood it wi eave two of these, the eu and european atomic energy Community, the uk remains one of the word s pre-eminent proponents of mutiateraism and the rues-based internationa system. Therefore, to answer the question What is Goba Britain? the government shoud produce a grand strategy for the nation: what the uk stands for, what its critica interests are, how it sees the word, how it uses its resources, how dipomacy works in the age of socia media, and how Britain can protect itsef in a changing word. 7 Goba Britain: A Twenty-First Century Vision is a contribution to this important debate. 10

13 2. Goba britain and the three freedoms The uk has been at its strongest when it has uphed a consistent, vaues-ed foreign poicy. We propose that the uk champions three fundamenta freedoms. The purpose of these freedoms is to set an agenda for Britain, to prioritise its overseas work, and to show eadership in areas where it can do so for the benefit of the British peope and humanity. These campaigns aso define the uk against potentia adversaries in the goba competition for ideas and vaues. freedom for trade: The uk shoud buid on its free trade traditions to become the goba champion of a reformed Word Trade organisation (WTo). The united States (us) has, temporariy at east, abdicated that roe. in their own respective ways, neither the eu and China are natura free traders : the former veers towards protectionism whie the atter is increasingy mercantiist, in the sense that it sees trade as a means of nationa aggrandisement and exerting power. of the major powers, the uk is uniquey paced to campaign for change, as it seeks to find terms acceptabe to the us, the eu, China and other major trading nations. This campaign is serendipitousy timed, as the uk wi be seeking free trade agreements throughout the word as it eaves the eu. This gives Britain the chance to deepen its internationa reationships, buiding up a network of free trading nations through the word, in what the current Foreign Secretary has described as an invisibe chain inking together the democracies of the word, those countries which share our vaues and support our beief in free trade, the rue of aw and open societies. 8 freedom from oppression: Foowing the uk s anti-savery Bi, Britain shoud continue its roe as the goba champion opposing modern savery and indentured abour, and by association as a champion of fundamenta human rights. The purpose of this campaign is not to be an exercise in virtue signaing but rather an exempar of dignity and equaity between races, reigions and genders. The uk shoud become a beacon of integrity and decency to which peope ook, not ony to increase its infuence and spread it vaues, but to make the country the most attractive destination for those peope women as we as men to bring their skis and energy shoud their own nations not vaue them. freedom of thought: Freedom of Thought vita to open, toerant and creative societies is our first ine of defence against authoritarianism. The uk shoud become the goba champion of free thought and expression via a renewed and reinvigorated BBC Word Service, on a patforms. The BBC Word Service shoud be tasked with becoming the goba broadcaster of integrity, continuing to set a benchmark standard in radio and estabishing one in teevision and visua broadcast to counter the broadcasters from authoritarian states. Funding for the BBC Word Service shoud primariy be incuded in a new definition of internationa deveopment and significanty increased. Funding shoud be earmarked at up to 1 biion per annum. These campaigns are important not ony to Britain but aso to the word. as humanity moves away from ives of scarcity to ives of consumption, new ways of iving must be found: with each other, and with the panet. This is especiay the case with artificia inteigence, the consequences of which few poicy-makers, universities, thinks tanks, commentators or governments have yet begun to consider. Therefore, by championing Freedom for Trade, Freedom from oppression and Freedom of Thought, the uk not ony gives expression to its vaues, especiay in contrast to authoritarian states, but it aso sets an exampe in giving humanity the space to sove some of the critica probems it faces, be they cimate change or 11

14 migration fows. Freedom enabes a of us, in the broadest sense, to be ambassadors for our vaues and our nation and to coectivey hep shape our future. These Three Freedoms are our nationa statement to the word. The uk has arguaby had a vaues-ed foreign poicy often described as an ethica foreign poicy during the ate 1990s since the sixteenth century. These vaues are woven into the nationa fabric and are part of British history. For exampe, adam Smith s masterpiece, The Weath of Nations (1776) articuated the case for free trade. The Magna Carta, signed at Runnymede in 1215, began the process of imiting the arbitrary power of the monarch. The work of a succession of ibera theorists, from Thomas Hobbes and John ocke to Jeremy Bentham and John Stuart Mi, estabished the inteectua basis for an open poitica cuture, which heped to support the uk s scientific and industria revoutions. The Somerset Case in 1772 reconfirmed that savery was iega in Britain. in 1807, the uk aboished the coonia save trade. Between 1808 and 1860 the West africa Squadron which accounted for one-third of the Roya navy s assets suppressed the save trade internationay, seizing over 1,600 save ships and freeing 150,000 saves. 9 With the act of Supremacy during the eizabethan era, and the ater gorious Revoution resuting in the Bi of Rights, decaration of Right and Toeration act in 1688 the uk emerged as one of the word s first recognisaby modern nations, deveoping constitutiona, pariamentary government. in the uk, suffrage was graduay extended with the great Reform act of 1832, whie the Municipa Franchise act of 1869 began to extend it to a sexes. in the midde and atter haf of the twentieth century, the uk ed aiances to defeat or deter totaitarian states with iibera ideoogies based on either racia purity (nazi germany) or cass purity (the Soviet union). 10 after the defeat of nazi germany, the uk, with the us and others, heped estabish a new internationa order with institutions such as the united nations, the Word Bank and the internationa Monetary Fund. Through nato, the uk payed a eading roe in containing the Soviet threat during the Cod War unti the Soviet union coapsed between 1989 and British history therefore provides the inspiration for the Three Freedoms Freedom for Trade, Freedom from oppression and Freedom of Thought. Britain has not aways ived by the standards that it has set itsef, but as nationa histories go it is, overa, one Britons can be proud of. The uk shoud be unashamed in defending its vaues and interests. There is no evidence that moycodding authoritarian states today achieves a purpose: most ikey the opposite. it is a truism that authoritarian states and indeed a states respect strong and cear eadership. Betraying the uk s vaues and interests, as former austraian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, tod the Foreign affairs Committee, generates contempt and a ack of respect. 11 it is simpy craven, ord Patten, the ast governor of Hong Kong, tod the Committee. 12 Sady, there is a strain in British poitica cuture which seeks to damn the uk and its historic interaction with the word. This masochistic and i-informed reinterpretation of history, a form of sef-hatred identified by george orwe, has been ampified by both the eftist inteigentsia and the isoationist right in recent years. 13 Some have denounced the prospect of goba Britain as a fantasy, itte more than empire 2.0 or an imperia reic. The defeatism from both eft and Right shoud be rejected. indeed, the uk is we-paced to benefit from the word it has heped, more than any other country bar the us, to shape. 12

15 3. an audit of the united KinGDoM on the word stage The twenty-first century word is ikey to be defined by two superpowers: the us and China. india may, at some stage, join them. a series of major powers wi exist aongside them. This wi incude newer or re-emerging regiona powers, such as Brazi and indonesia; great economic powerhouses, such as germany and Japan; and estabished powers, such as France and the uk. athough Britain is not a superpower and has not been since the 1950s, it remains very much a great power. Tak of the uk as a medium-sized or midde-ranking power is pointessy sef-deprecating. 14 Britain remains richy-endowed with nationa capabiities. according to the Henry Jackson Society s atest audit of geopoitica Capabiity reeased in January 2019 which assesses the nationa capabiities of twenty major powers, the uk is one of the very few genuiney goba powers, with reach into every region and continent (see Tabe 1). 15 it ranks second ony to the us, abeit some distance behind, and marginay in front of China. 16 in terms of the three main piars of its domestic structures its economy, technoogy and cuture the uk performs strongy. 17 Britain s economic cout remains substantia. 18 Word Bank data shows that the country s economy remains the fifth argest in terms of nomina gross nationa income (gni). 19 Credit Suisse s annua goba Weath Report reveas that the uk with over us$14.2 triion hods the fifth highest quantity of tota net weath in the word, more than any other european country bar germany (which hods ony marginay more). 20 in terms of technoogica prowess, the country sits behind ony the us, China and Japan, whie for cutura prestige it is exceeded ony by the us. 21 The British higher education sector, a critica eement in cutura and civiisationa soft power, performs remarkaby. according to Times Higher Education, the uk has more Top 500 universities than any other country bar the us, with amost as many as germany and France together. 22 even in terms of socia progress, the Socia Progress initiative ranks the uk higher than countries such as austraia, Canada and France. 23 in terms of nationa instruments, the uk has the second argest dipomatic everage, with one of the argest dipomatic networks and internationa deveopment budgets on the panet. 24 in terms of miitary might, the uk is one of the few countries with an expeditionary miitary capabiity the abiity to mount operations far from home with a navy with tota dispacement tabe 1: the position of the uk for each attribute and piar of geopoitica capabiity Geopoitica Capabiity nationa base nationa structure economic Cout Technoogica Prowess Cutura Prestige nationa instruments dipomatic everage Miitary Might nationa resove Position among the twenty major powers 8th 2nd 5th 4th 2nd 2nd 2nd 3rd 2nd 13

16 tonnage of arge warships and auxiiary vesses comparabe to France, germany and itay combined. 25 it aso has miitary bases throughout the word. it opened a new faciity in Bahrain ast year and pans to estabish new faciities in the Caribbean and the Far east in due course. 26 The internationa institute for Strategic Studies paces the country sixth for miitary spending, comparabe to india and Russia. 27 in terms of nationa resove the efficacy of the government and the percentage of nationa income the country is prepared to devote to goba engagement the uk is second ony to Canada

17 4. what CouD ChanGe? Why, then, is there sometimes a mismatch between the uk s extensive nationa capabiities and its abiity to deiver consistenty the infuence that it woud ike? To use a card-paying anaogy, the uk sometimes pays a good hand bady. dipomats say privatey, amongst other things, that Britain s departments of state coud integrate their efforts more; that they spread themseves too thin and that uk spending is unbaanced. The uk can sometimes ack strategy and purpose. 29 For a country that has so many think tanks devoted to strategy and strategic thinking, it is ironic that the uk can sometimes seem devoid of a nationa strategy, uness mudding through is a governing phiosophy or characteristic of its strategic cuture. Britain s foreign poicy has occasionay become azy. at the un, the uk s dipomatic strengths have arguaby been under-used in recent years. gobay, Britain has reied progressivey on the us to project hard power, becoming an increasingy junior and unquestioning partner. 30 The second iraq War was perhaps the most humiiating exampe of this trend. The uk has reied on the eu to project some forms of soft power, especiay in trade poicy and immigration. Both aiances have been weakened over the past few years. This shoud serve as a reminder that the uk needs the abiity to act aone sometimes; not because it wishes to do so but because, firsty, it may need to do so, and secondy, by being a strong power which uses its nationa resources effectivey, Britain wi find it easier to make and renew aiances. under the current aydown, British foreign poicy risks being ess than the sum of its parts, not ony because of a ack of integration, but aso because it is divided between so many departments. These incude: the FCo, Mod, the department for internationa deveopment (dfid), the department for internationa Trade (dit), the Cabinet office, 10 downing Street and, temporariy, the department for exiting the eu. The FCo itsef has become more imited in its outook. it is responsibe for ess. The partia oss of internationa counter-terrorism to the Home office was a symbo of the FCo s decine. 31 Whist ministers and officias aim to integrate goba poicy, some dipomats and officias concede that this is not aways the case and that at a eves, but especiay when coordinated strategies arrive at departmenta eve, integration can be ost. The uk, they say, aso needs to be proactive rather than simpy reactive. Reforms to the nationa Security Counci are required, as we as to the FCo and to the ministries that dea with overseas poicy. Britain shoud restructure how it does foreign poicy. in addition, uk spending on goba engagement is unbaanced. The British armed Forces capabiities have shrunk too much. The uk is surey one of the few nations in history that has wiingy abandoned its miitary might despite its astonishing record, both in deterring and winning wars but more often than not being on the right side in the first pace. outside key niche speciaisations such as the Secret inteigence Service, the Specia Forces and government Communications Headquarters (gchq), the imbaance in forces is now so severe as to damage the atantic aiance, something that is remarked on by us aies. 32 The uk is jeopardising the most vauabe hard power reationship it has and one of the most powerfu aiances in modern history. it is staggering to think that Britain coud be so wifuy bind to this danger. Righty, severa former foreign secretaries have recenty warned that the uk needs to invest in greater miitary capabiity. 33 in terms of British soft power, a House of ords report from March 2014 righty identified more that the government coud and shoud do. The government s joint soft power strategy wi be a step in the right direction, but a forms of state power, hard and soft, need to be better integrated. 15

18 in short, the uk shoud evove its strategic thinking, and work to integrate the toos of state power to use that power effectivey. The uk shoud aim to be the eading smart power nation. The uk has begun to take heed of these chaenges. The new Fusion doctrine, an outcome of the Chicot inquiry and deveoped in the 2018 nationa Security Capabiity Review, seeks to pu together the economic, security and infuence capabiities avaiabe to the British state and importanty civi society to achieve three nationa security objectives. These objectives incude: protecting the British peope; protecting British infuence; and protecting British prosperity. 34 attempts at integration are ceary taking pace. uk officias argue privatey that Britain does a better job of it than other major powers, such as Japan, France and germany. a good exampe of uk coordination/integration is the Stabiisation unit, which was born out of the Mod, FCo and dfid in This is now funded centray and accounts to a cross-government mechanism. another exampe is the Forced Marriages unit, which is run between the FCo and the Home office. athough civi servants say that integration works best around a specific theme, these exampes nevertheess prove the worth of integration in principe. We beieve that many of the ideas in this document are natura progressions of both the Fusion doctrine and the desire to integrate the deivery of poicy across departments. 16

19 5. the state of the word and the rise of authoritarianism Whist conventiona wars are in decine, 35 the word is a more chaenging and more dangerous pace than at the end of the twentieth century. However, this danger shoud not be overstated. More humans ive productive and enriched ives than before. Between 1989/1990 and 2009, according to Freedom House, the number of Free countries expanded from 61 to 89, 36 whie goba gni per capita more than doubed over the same period, rising from us$4,550 to over us$8, This more ibera, prosperous word was enabed by freer, if not free trade, the spread of basic human rights, and the deveopment of the post-war, rues-based internationa system. aongside the us, the uk is a founder and custodian of this rues-based system. it is one of the uk s greatest achievements from both a strategic and mora perspective. This mutiatera order remains critica to both uk and goba prosperity. despite its faiings, Jeremy Hunt, the Foreign Secretary, pointed out in ate 2018 that: the internationa order put together by the us and the uk after the Second Word War has been the most successfu in human history. 38 However, this system is under strain. democracy, which twenty years ago was the dominant mode of goba deveopment, now has forcefu competition. For the moment, at east, authoritarian states are on the rise. The poitica vaues Britons take for granted are becoming a minority in the word. indeed, within a decade, the word s most economicay powerfu nation may be an autocracy. even aies are firting with authoritarianism, such as Turkey. 39 The internationa system is critica to the stabiity of the word and to continued efforts to raise iving standards for humanity. When aiances and security arrangements fai such as the eague of nations prior to the Second Word War the internationa system coapses into one in which raw power predominates. Today, despite the hopes of the 1990s, we are in a goba batte for infuence between ibera democracies and the neo-authoritarian states whose regimes not ony seek to contro the information to which their peope have access, but aso in some instances to corrupt Britain s own. The batte for the twenty-first century is, in part, between open and cosed societies. a series of generationa poitica conficts, rivaries and cod wars are being payed out across the gobe. gavin Wiiamson, the Secretary of State for defence, said that the current internationa cimate is marked by persistent, aggressive, state competition. 40 genera Sir nichoas Carter, the Chief of the defence Staff, expained the consequences of states using new forms of tactics in January 2018: Worrying though, a of these states have become masters at expoiting the seams between peace and war. What constitutes a weapon in this grey area no onger has to go bang. energy, cash as bribes corrupt business practices, cyber-attacks, assassination, fake news, propaganda and indeed miitary intimidation are a exampes of the weapons used to gain advantage in this era of constant competition. 41 as Figure 1 shows, not ony are these exampes taking pace in specific ocations, but aso, as importanty, they are taking pace in the virtua word and in the hearts and minds of hundreds of miions of peope. in some senses, the virtua word is now as important as the physica word in the rivary of states, interests, vaues and ideas. These new conficts are being payed out using a variety of toos, incuding new and compex information operations on socia media and in the virtua space, aws, economic evers (gas pipeines, bribes and sanctions) and paramiitary vioence. There are up to fifty recognisabe toos and methods of modern confict manipuation. 42 These toos and methods now incude 17

20 figure 1: Potentia Goba fashpoints 3: tensions in the MiDDe east in the Midde east, iran and a Saudi-backed coaition are fighting a series of proxy conficts. This strugge is compounded by a non-conventiona confict between iranian-backed Hamas and Hezboah against israe, as we as the troubed reationship between the us and iran. 1: ConteMPorary russian warfare Russia s revisionist offensive against nato, and the uk and us in particuar, is paying out in northern and eastern europe, not east ukraine. This offensive is both geopoitica and virtua, as Russia seeks to ro-back Western infuence and tamper with and undermine Western democratic systems. 5: india-pakistan reations on the indian subcontinent, the reationship between Pakistan and india remains deicate. india, a rising major power, fees that Pakistan propped up increasingy by China is undermining the internationa order, especiay in the deveopment of its nucear arsena. 2: Chinese revisionism as China expands in economic and poitica power, it has begun to revise the status-quo in the South China Sea and the and and sea routes aong its us$1 triion Bet and Road initiative. China s infuence is being fet acutey in the capitas of asian states such as Japan and Korea, as we as austraia and new Zeaand. There is aso tension over trade, as evidenced by the tariff confict with the us. 4: unstabe Korean Peninsua on the Korean peninsua, the frozen confict between totaitarian north Korea and increasingy prosperous and democratic South Korea is entering its seventh decade. north Korea s deveopment of nucear weapons remains a destabiising factor on the word stage. cyber threats to the eectora systems of democracies and the use of artificia inteigence and big data to contro popuations, as we as the design or uterior use of socia media agorithms, advertisements and mutimedia to encourage dissent and division. 43 The misuse of artificia inteigence represents a risk to human freedom, especiay when combined with big data potentiay for exampe in China s use of its socia credit system. The Kremin has deveoped the most advanced form of this new confict mode where the toos of state power vioent and non-vioent are combined into an integrated whoe. 44 Contemporary Russian Confict is a sophisticated form of state infuence cosey inked to poitica objectives. Russia s beief in the muti-faceted nature of war is refected in successive iterations of its major security documents: the Miitary doctrine, Foreign Poicy Concept, and nationa Security Strategy and the information Security doctrine. 45 The 2015 Miitary doctrine, for exampe, identifies the first characteristic of contemporary miitary confict as the integrated empoyment of miitary force and poitica, economic, informationa or other non-miitary measures impemented with a wide use of the potentia of popuar protest and of specia force operations. 46 it is not so much a miitary art, as a new form of a strategic art which combines a the toos of state power in a the domains, physica and non-physica. China has aso deveoped non-conventiona and fu-spectrum theories of confict, as evidenced by the semina 1999 work Unrestricted Warfare by t. Co. Qiao iang and t. Co. Wang Xiansui. 47 in the South China Sea, through its construction of fake isands, unawfu caims and the estabishment of so-caed straight baseines, China is in breach of the united nations Convention on the aw of the Sea. 48 against the West, it has been accused of arge-scae hacking, incuding the theft of persona detais of over 20 miion us Federa empoyees. 49 Whist its poitica infuence operations are more subte than Russia s, they are in some ways more chaenging, as austraia and new Zeaand, amongst others, are finding out

21 More generay, the centre of word trade and power is shifting to countries of the Pacific and indian oceans. Consequenty, Britain s indo-pacific aies and partners, such as Japan, Korea and india, as we as the us, Canada, austraia and new Zeaand, are becoming more poiticay and economicay important. 19

22 6. seeing the word through Vaues and interests if it is to promote the Three Freedoms, the uk needs to understand more effectivey the inkage between its vaues and interests, particuary if it is to chaenge the renewed Reaist Schoo of internationa reations that sees the word excusivey in terms of raw power projection and spheres of infuence. There is a tendency to see foreign poicy through the prism of geography or interests, such as defence, aid and trade. This can produce stae and unorigina thinking. instead, Britain shoud view the word through the prism of vaues and interests. There are nations with whom the uk shares vaues and interests. There are nations with whom it shares some interests but few vaues. Finay, there are those with whom it shares few vaues or interests. For exampe, the angosphere Canada, austraia, new Zeaand and the us represents a group of nations in which shared vaues and interests amost competey overap. These states are defined by popuar sovereignty expressed through democratic baots, a commitment to a common aw separate from poitica power and a muti-party system. The uk shares a anguage and significant cutura heritage with a four, and a shared head of state with three of them. as the uk withdraws from the eu, it has the opportunity to deepen its ties with these historica partners, especiay in reation to defence, trade and immigration. next come most european nations, especiay those of the eu. The uk shares many core vaues with european democracies, athough its ega system is different, and its approach to sovereignty is not the same. in eu countries, popuar sovereignty is mitigated by assertive and entrenched eites, more so than in angosphere states. The uk aso shares many interests and vaues with other nations of the Commonweath, and indeed economic growth in the years to come wi be driven by nations such as india, South africa, nigeria and Kenya. Whist this report does not touch on the uk s reationship with the Commonweath states in detai, it is fast becoming more important poiticay and economicay. Britain aso shares many vaues and interests with nations which have very different cutures, such as Japan and South Korea, as we as the states of South america such as Brazi, Coombia and Chie. at the opposite end of the spectrum, there are states with whom Britain shares few vaues and interests. The most obvious of those is the Russian state (as opposed to the Russian peope). Vadimir Putin s regime seeks to undermine British vaues and interests. There are many reasons for the breakdown in uk reations with the Kremin, some perhaps based on misunderstandings and errors on both sides. However, the Russian regime has increasingy attempted to damage British vaues through the corruption of eectora processes, free speech and uk interests by threatening the rues-based internationa system and the nato aiance. 51 Between these two extremes are those states with whom the uk shares few vaues but some interests. Perhaps the most important is China. Britain has a very different outook to the communist, one-party state on the rue of aw and freedom of speech, but both countries share interests such as a commitment to goba trade. Whie China seeks to bend and partiay subvert the current system, it does not, ike Russia, seek to undermine it. British poicy shoud be cear: with those it shares vaues, the uk shoud aim to deepen its ties to as great an extent as possibe, particuary but not soey with the so-caed angosphere. With those with whom it shares interests, the uk shoud deveop those interests whist being cear about British vaues. With those with whom the British peope share neither vaues nor interests, the uk shoud be determined to protect both whist seeking to estabish mutua 20

23 interests. in addition, Britain shoud seek diaogue not ony with governments but with their peopes, hence the importance of a re-invigorated BBC Word Service as we as British cuture more generay, expressed through private individuas or the British Counci. Regarding British vaues, there is a caveat here: not a states are democracies. 52 if the uk refused to trade with them, it woud make itsef poorer and more isoated. Britain woud aso hinder its abiity to infuence those states or interact with them and their citizens. an ethica foreign poicy means, where possibe, engaging with other countries and seeking to infuence them, not denouncing them. The uk shoud ead by exampe, rather than ecture. There is a baance, and sometimes Britain gets it wrong, which damages its abiity to infuence such countries. 21

24 7. using strategy to support the integration of Goba PoiCy Strategy is about reconciing ends, ways and means. 53 To make the uk better abe to achieve its ends, it shoud marsha its means and ways its resources and how it uses them more effectivey. Whist the uk has considerabe infuence, it has imitations as does any nation. To pursue the Three Freedoms most effectivey, the uk shoud fuy integrate the toos of state power. Whist Russia and China do not have foreign poicies that Britain shoud copy, 54 they show the worth of integrating power. They are aso aware that the stark dichotomy between peace and war has burred as the nature of state confict has changed. athough major conventiona war is thankfuy unikey, the word has moved back into an era of permanent competition and proxy warfare. The toos of nationa power and infuence exist on a spectrum, ranging from hard power through to soft power. They shoud not be seen in isoation from one another. it is the integration of these toos which makes them more than the sum of their parts. in a democracy, there are many toos in the fied of cuture, academia and reigion civi society which the state shoud not co-opt. These toos are better kept at arm s ength, expressed by individuas as part of peope s dipomacy. British state power is sometimes ess than the sum of its parts because overseas engagement has come to be divided between so many competing departments. arguaby, the decision to separate the deivery of foreign aid from the FCo and estabish dfid as a separate department in the ate 1990s was an error. Moreover, the uk has graduay securitised its goba engagement, becoming increasingy reactive to threats and chaenges as and when they emerge. 55 This can be seen in the way that Britain has a nationa Security Strategy and Strategic defence and Security Review, but not a nationa goba Strategy. Therefore, we beieve a nationa goba Strategy woud set out a more active poicy. it is better to shape the internationa environment rather than standing by unti others shape it for the uk in accordance with their own vaues and interests. How, then, coud the components of British power be desecuritised and integrated more effectivey? We beieve that the government shoud undertake a thorough examination of how the uk and the British state engages with the word. in the meantime, we have deveoped a number of ideas to buid on the Fusion doctrine. 7.1 a nationa Strategy Counci The nationa Security Counci is currenty the cosest institution that attempts to coordinate cross-department goba engagement. it was initiay estabished to coordinate and deiver the government s nationa security agenda. 56 as a resut of its nationa security focus, though, it focuses too much on security and not enough on strategy. 57 Strategy goes beyond security. The Fusion doctrine has tried to overcome this by estabishing sixteen impementation groups to support the nationa Security Counci. However, to drive integration and create a nationa Goba Strategy, we propose the nationa Security Counci shoud be broadened to become a nationa Strategy Counci. The nationa Strategy Counci woud undertake two roes: First, it woud generate the nationa goba Strategy every decade to provide strategic direction to the uk s departments of state (by comparison, China s Bet and Road initiative is a us$1 triion, muti-decade strategy). 58 The nationa goba 22

25 Strategy woud not be a security document, but a strategy document. it woud focus on goba engagement with defence as part of that but with the aim of driving a strategic vision and coordinating overseas impact. The nationa Strategy Counci woud aso be responsibe for ongoing integration and coordination at senior eves of government. Second it woud, as it does now, function as a nationa Security Counci to combine the departments and agencies of the state invoved in security and emergency panning. This nationa Strategy Counci woud be headed by the Prime Minister, with the Foreign Secretary as deputy head and senior representatives from the Mod and other reevant departments advised by a new goba Strategy advisor, as we as the pre-existing nationa Security advisor. We envisage the goba Strategy advisor answering formay to the Foreign Secretary and on a working basis to the/a deputy foreign minister responsibe for driving integration across a departments and agencies of state. in Whiteha, to support integration, dit and dfid woud graduay be amagamated into the FCo, becoming new agencies. 59 They woud ose their separate departmenta budgets, saving miions of pounds in personne and other costs. The FCo woud then be headed by the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonweath affairs, fanked by a senior Minister for Trade (possiby a Cabinet roe) and a Minister for internationa deveopment. effectivey, our departmenta structures woud mirror those of austraia and Canada, with the Mod remaining a separate ministry. This aso impies the Prime Minister s office reinquishing some infuence and power over the operationa management of goba poicy, whist the FCo itsef woud consider how it can coordinate more effectivey when working with other departments and agencies. at the operationa eve in goba poicy, we envisage the FCo becoming the ead department to which the strategic eadership of the Mod, dfid and dit woud coordinate integrated pans. The FCo woud again become the undisputed inteectua driver of goba engagement. The one HMg agenda which aims to remove barriers to joint working, so that a staff working for the uk government overseas can deiver the uk s objectives more effectivey and efficienty shoud be progressivey operationaised to deiver British goba poicy cross-government. 60 at the tactica eve, as aid out in Box 1, we envisage the estabishment of Joint effects Teams. box 1: Joint effects teams Both at home and abroad, the uk woud structure work around where appropriate Joint effects Teams (JeTs). as part of the JeTs poicy, the FCo woud ead uk overseas poicy abroad. in practica terms this means that uk ambassadors and High Commissioners (from whatever department) woud have ine management of a staff, regardess of department. They woud aso oversee the impementation of the country strategies agreed between a government stakehoders invoved. This shoud become the institutionaised norm but it does not yet appear to be the case. a 2015 nationa audit office report found exampes of both good and bad joint working. Coaboration, it said, was too often dependent on individua personaities. 61 in a arge embassy, the impementation of a singe country strategy may invove a dozen or more different government departments and agencies incuding: the Cabinet office, the Mod, the Home office, dfid, the 23

26 department for Business, energy and industria Strategy, the Security Service (Mi5), Secret inteigence Service (Mi6), Poice iaison, the nationa Crime agency,, and the British Counci. in amost a posts, this management chain woud be via the FCo. in time of confict (such as during operations in afghanistan or iraq), it coud be miitary. JeTs woud aso resut in personne serving under a singe ega chain. The singe ega chain woud prevent back-watching in decision making and enabe commanders and eaders to make timey decisions whist knowing they are protected by uk aw. 62 in addition, Whiteha shoud introduce a common set of terms and conditions for a civi servants and dipomats stationed overseas. Such a system wi end the iniquity of dipomats, dfid and dit officias doing simiar jobs for different rates of pay. Harmonisation was agreed in Since then, the nationa audit office has said that progress has been very sow. 63 in addition, there is a strong case for moving responsibiity for the uk overseas Territories from the FCo and to the Cabinet office. The overseas Territories are not foreign and their specific issues are best deat with on a cross-government basis. 7.2 rebaancing spending on goba engagement Britain s securitised and stove-piped power projection has been compounded over the past two decades by growing spending imbaances. For exampe, defence spending has shrunk as a percentage of nationa income since 2010, yet spending on internationa deveopment has increased sharpy. 64 indeed, due to a 2015 act of Pariament, spending on internationa deveopment defined as officia deveopment assistance (oda) (see Box 2) is the ony area of government expenditure that is mandated by aw to reach a specific proportion of gni 0.7% per year. 65 The issue here is not necessariy that the uk shoud reverse this aw, but rather that internationa deveopment spending shoud be made more effective. The quaity of dfid s spending as the ead department for the deivery of oda has improved significanty in recent years. To its credit, dfid probaby spends money more effectivey than other government departments. However, there are stories, some accurate, of money spent poory. 66 This may be party inked with dfid s need to hit the awfu spending target, rather than spending effectivey. HM Treasury s use-it-or-ose- it spending rues aocate money to projects within financia years, regardess of whether they are fuy-deveoped and/or appraised, or indeed worthwhie eading to accusations that dfid has been under pressure to simpy shove money out the door. 67 in a 2015 report, the nationa audit office found merit in such caims, athough a ater report found that dfid took subsequent remedia action, even if probems remain. 68 Sometimes money is ineffectivey spent due to uk procedures, both in reation to dfid and HM Treasury. For exampe, one of the authors met Syrian doctors in the summer of 2018 to discuss their remarkabe work running cinics to treat injured Syrians from that country s bruta civi war. 69 They are funded through dfid s budget. However, up to 30% of the funding for administration goes through three or four different eves of non-governmenta organisation (ngo) bureaucracy: nationa and regiona headquarters, country offices and the oca office of the impementing partner. Thus, via current structures, a 10 miion donation on behaf of the uk taxpayer becomes around 7 miion by the time it reaches those who need it. 70 Therefore, the caim that every penny is accounted for is, at best, a haf-truth. equay, dfid staffing and administration poicy is mandated to be no more than 2.5% of the tota operating cost and, since 2009, dfid s headcount has been reduced to save on administration costs. Reducing such costs is audabe. However, the unforeseen consequence of this rue is that dfid cannot do smaer-scae projects, because they are not considered to be sufficienty 24

27 cost-effective. This has ed to dfid reying on externa contractors, ever-arger programmes and rent-seeking inside the contracting industry. Therefore, this eads to the bizarre ogic that dfid can give 100 miion, under one project manager, to an internationa ngo, yet it cannot deiver miion projects under project managers, even if these deiver much better vaue for money and much better resuts, because it woud be in breach of its own rues. dfid is geared towards spending big rather than spending we. Consequenty, to push dfid towards deivering better vaue-for-money projects that reach those most in need, the department s own rues shoud be changed to accept that operating costs wi rise to aow for more, smaer-scae projects. Counter-intuitivey, dfid s headcount shoud aso be increased, if necessary, to enabe it to deveop these smaer projects which prioritise vaue-for-money. Moreover, internationa deveopment is defined as oda by the 2015 act of Pariament. The definition of oda was first given by the deveopment assistance Committee (dac) at the organisation for economic Cooperation and deveopment (oecd) in 1969 (refined in 1972 and 2016) (see Box 2). 71 The probem here is that because oda is designed to achieve primariy economic deveopment and wefare [emphasis added], it is difficut to support other forms of deveopment. 72 Thus, by cinging to this economic definition of internationa deveopment, the uk is preventing itsef from funding primariy non-economic deveopment programmes within the aotment of 0.7% of gni, incuding certain peace-keeping operations, as we as the projection of vaues, principes and narratives that are essentia for the creation of stabe, we-governed and prosperous ( deveoped ) societies. Moreover, even if oda coud be adapted to quaify for forms of deveopment other than economic deveopment and wefare, some forms of assistance woud be forbidden under the oda definition because it may promote the donor s image. box 2: what is officia Deveopment assistance (oda)? (abridged version) The dac defines oda as those fows to countries and territories on the dac ist of oda Recipients and to mutiatera deveopment institutions which are: 1. provided by officia agencies, incuding state and oca governments, or by their executive agencies; and 2. each transaction of which: a. is administered with the promotion of the economic deveopment and wefare of deveoping countries as its main objective; and b. is concessiona in character. Coverage: over the years the dac has continuousy refined the detaied oda reporting rues to ensure fideity to the definition and the greatest possibe consistency among donors. The boundary of oda has been carefuy deineated in many fieds, incuding: Miitary aid: no miitary equipment or services are reportabe as oda. anti-terrorism activities are aso excuded. However, the cost of using donors armed forces to deiver humanitarian aid is eigibe. Peacekeeping: Most peacekeeping expenditures are excuded in ine with the excusion of miitary costs. However, some cosey-defined deveopmentay reevant activities within peacekeeping operations are incuded. nucear energy: Reportabe as oda, provided it is for civiian purposes. Cutura programmes: eigibe as oda if they buid the cutura capacities of recipient countries, but one-off tours by donor country artists or sportsmen, and activities to promote the donors image, are excuded. 25

28 The reaity is that if internationa deveopment is understood more broady than as it is currenty defined (i.e. as oda), then the uk may aready spend more than 0.7% of its gni: of the biion spent from the Confict, Stabiity and Security Fund in , 627 miion is not considered to meet the criteria for oda. 73 of this, 345 miion was spent on peacekeeping in , of which ony 76 miion was considered to meet the criteria for oda This eaves an additiona 269 miion. 74 of dfid s tota budget, 33.9 miion was spent in on overseas projects that do not meet the criteria for designation as oda. 75 of the department for Business, energy and industria Strategy s tota budget, 575 miion was spent in on overseas projects that do not meet the criteria for designation as oda. 76 it is uncear how much the Cabinet office, FCo and Home office spend on overseas projects that do not meet the criteria for designation as oda. These departments either do not keep this information or consider it too expensive to quantify it. 77 in addition, of the BBC Word Service s tota budget of 339 miion in 2017, over 306 miion did not meet the criteria for oda. 78 Combined, this spending came to biion in , or just under 0.08% of uk gni. 79 Some of this money cannot under any circumstances be defined as deveopment assistance. However, the extent to which the rest coud be considered as part of the uk s spending on internationa deveopment is an issue of definition. Therefore, spending on internationa deveopment (incusive of oda) is ikey to be nearer 0.8% of gni. Finay, there are some home truths that are not fashionabe but need to be stated. uk ife-saving humanitarian aid is important and has widespread support. However, the caim occasionay heard in poitica circes that uk aid mitigates the effects of goba capitaism or makes up for Britain s past is is weak. it does not, and it shoud not. By far the greatest aeviator of poverty in the word has been goba capitaism, backed by Western and uk Foreign direct investment, which has raised tens of miions of peope out of poverty. China s introduction of freer markets abeit without democratic institutions and often at the expense of the environment has raised we over 850 miion peope out of extreme poverty. in 1981, 88.32% of China s popuation ived in extreme poverty, i.e. on ess than us$1.90 per day; by 2015, this figure had faen to just 0.73%. 80 Simiary, over the same time span in india and indonesia, 154 and 103 miion peope have been raised out of extreme poverty, to the extent that extreme poverty has decined from afficting 54.8% and 71.44% of the popuation to 21.23% and 5.82%, respectivey. 81 dfid work, whist important, is modest in comparison to these strides. When even indian economists are criticising the uk for spending oda money in their own country, it is sef-evidenty time for a rethink

29 Graph 1: Percentage of Gni spent on oda in 2017 by seected countries 83 united Kingdom germany netherands France average irish Repubic itay Canada austraia Japan Spain united States given existing spending inefficiencies and the geopoitica changes that have occurred since the estabishment of dfid as a separate department, the time has come to reconsider how the uk defines internationa deveopment and thus, what is accounted for within the remit of oda. Britain has aready had some success with internationa redefinition since as we-governed and prosperous ( deveoped ) nations require sound poitica and cutura foundations, we beieve that non-economic forms of deveopment are just as important to the security and advancement of ess-deveoped countries. Britain shoud therefore revisit the definition of aid and how it spends it. in essence, there are three options: 1. Push for further reform to oecd rues to enabe the uk (and other dac countries) to broaden the definition of oda, to aow more to be spent on non-economic forms of internationa deveopment. This woud aow the uk to incude more spending on peacekeeping operations and much of the BBC Word Service within its aocation of 0.7% of gni on oda. 2. Reform the uk s own spending target, agreeing to spend 0.5% of gni on oda, giving the government the freedom to spend the other 0.2% of gni on non-economic forms of internationa deveopment (as defined by Britain). even if the uk reduced spending to 0.5% of gni on oda, the country woud sti spend significanty more than the average (0.35% of gni) of its major aies and partners (see graph 1), most of which spend significanty ess than 0.5% of gni. This option woud require a reform to the existing 2015 act of Pariament. 3. ditch the oecd definition of oda and repace it with a uk definition, maintaining spending at 0.7% of gni some of which woud of course sti meet the oecd criteria for oda. This option woud aso require a reform to the existing 2015 act of Pariament. 27

30 We support option one. as the word s third argest overa spender on oda, Britain is we-paced to push through further change. 85 However, whichever option proves most feasibe, the uk shoud have the freedom to redefine its aid budget in accordance with its own needs. in addition, there are two additiona reforms that shoud be adopted, irrespective of the option seected: 1. internationa deveopment spending (incusive of oda) shoud not exceed 0.7% of gni per year. 2. Spending dfid money to reach spending targets by a specified date shoud end. This is no onger ethicay or poiticay sustainabe. as the Pariamentary internationa deveopment Committee recommended, if any internationa deveopment money is unspent within a budgetary year, it shoud be put into a uk deveopment Fund for spending as and when projects are fuy formuated or to draw from during subsequent years to address emerging needs. an exampe of this coud have been Syria s dramatic humanitarian assistance needs from 2011, or responding to natura disasters (incuding in weathier countries or uk overseas territories). 86 in addition, the uk shoud estabish rues that meet the expectations of the British peope, whose taxes provide the budget for internationa deveopment : a consensus correcty has grown in Britain that ife-saving aid shoud be preserved. 87 indeed, we propose increasing the proportion of the British oda budget aocated to such assistance, as such spending has unanimous nationa support. However, somewhat surprisingy, biatera humanitarian aid accounts for just 16.5% of oda, with simiar amounts for heath, governance and muti-sector support. 88 However, poverty aeviation shoud, in accordance with the Word Humanitarian Summit in May 2016, deveop with a broader Humanitarian and deveopment Framework. 89 oda shoud ony be deivered to countries with advanced miitary or space programmes if there is a cear strategic purpose for deivery. The issue here is not whether these countries have need, but rather that they are abe to judge their own spending priorities. at the very east, such countries shoud contribute more to the advice the uk offers in technica or expert areas. Private charity work in those countries, which is important and vauabe, woud ceary not be affected. The uk spends over 1.4 biion on economic infrastructure and services, as we as production sectors. 90 We beieve that this figure shoud be reduced and redirected to fund other core strategic aims, such as increasing uk hard power capabiity. However, the hundreds of miions that the uk continues to spend shoud be used to everage private capita. To its credit, dfid is working on this, and working with the City of ondon in particuar so that it becomes the goba hub for finance in the deveoping word. This is another exampe of where ethica behaviour can support strategic sef-interest. 91 We beieve that funding shoud be based on a tripe bottom ine for dfid: positive impact for beneficiaries, strategic interest for the uk and, finay, financia return. in summary, unti dfid is drawn back into the FCo, it shoud be more cosey aigned with the uk s nationa agenda promoting the Three Freedoms rather than internationa deveopment as currenty defined (i.e. as oda). Meanwhie, given that the internationa environment has become more dangerous, the budgets of the FCo and Mod which have decined as a percentage of gross domestic Product (gdp) shoud be increased. in accordance with the findings of Pariamentary defence Committee, as we as a previous report by The Henry Jackson Society, spending on both foreign affairs 28

31 and defence shoud receive a significant upift over the next five years. given the rising chaenges, the armed Forces shoud receive a arger share of nationa income between 2.5% and 3% of gdp by This woud provide the Mod with the resources required to pursue the Three Freedoms and protect the uk s vaues and interests, thereby normaising spending on British goba engagement back to historica eves

32 8. a Goba strategy for Goba britain First and foremost, we beieve that the proposed nationa Strategy Counci shoud produce a nationa goba Strategy. To hep advance the nationa goba Strategy, we now ist some ideas across the spectrum of nationa power. These are broady divided into supporting the Three Freedoms for trade, from oppression, and of thought. 8.1 actions to promote freedom for trade Working aongside ike-minded countries, Britain shoud buid on its free trading traditions to become the goba champion of a reformed Word Trade organisation (WTo). of the major powers, the uk is uniquey paced to campaign for change, seeking to find terms acceptabe to the us, the eu and China and other major trading nations. This campaign aso gives Britain the chance to deepen its internationa reationships, buiding up a network of free trading nations through the word. The uk has natura aies in this cause. These incude states such as austraia, Canada and new Zeaand with the uk known as CanZuK (see Box 3). other aies incude powerfu states ike Japan as we as industriaised or industriaising nations, such as South Korea, Brazi, indonesia, Chie and potentia superpowers such as india. Criticay, free trade depends on free and open seas. Working with the us, nato, CanZuK and other nations as we as mutiatera institutions, the uk shoud seek to pay a eading roe in Freedom of navigation poicies to uphod the united nations Convention on the aw of the Sea. This impies a strengthened Roya navy capabe of two significant and concurrent roes in both the euro-atantic and the indo-pacific. in the euro-atantic it shoud preserve freedom of navigation in the north Sea and north atantic corridor (submarine, anti-submarine capabiity), as we as the Mediterranean and Back seas, as the eading european nato nation. in the indo-pacific, it shoud support the us, Canada, the Five Power defence arrangements (FPda) aies and other partners such as Japan and South Korea in uphoding security and freedom of trade and deivering humanitarian and disaster reief. in particuar, the uk coud send additiona minesweepers to the Persian guf operation Kipion to keep it free of mines. The Roya navy s technica abiity in this fied means that uk minesweepers are a strategic resource. box 3: why CanZuK? ever since the imperia Federation eague in the ate twentieth century, the idea of coser poitica ties between austraia, Canada, new Zeaand and the uk has waxed and waned. 94 in recent years, particuary since the Britain has begun to withdraw from the eu, the idea of coser reations between the four countries sharing the same head of state, estabished connections, the same anguage and the common aw has grown. it has recenty been endorsed by the Canadian Conservative Party. 95 in the past, distance has been used as an argument in favour of aiances in europe and against the uk reationship with its CanZuK aies. However, given that technoogy is overcoming distance in many fieds and direct fights from the uk to austraia began in 2018, the distances between the CanZuK countries are becoming increasingy ess reevant. Together the CanZuK nations account for over us$5.7 triion in gni and approximatey 10% of the word s weath. 96 They a aso share cose strategic reationships with the us through the Five eyes inteigence community, as we as the abcanz armies, Five eyes air Force 30

33 interoperabiity Counci and auscannzukus (a programme to promote nava interoperabiity between the five powers). This is a natura aiance to be deepened and deveoped. From there, the uk shoud reach out to other Commonweath states such as india, South africa, Kenya and nigeria. given the CanZuK and Five eyes shared strategic concerns, not east in reation to the geopoitica revisionism of Russia and China, it makes sense for the uk to seek coser reations between them. a four countries (five, incuding the us) beieve in the importance of the rues-based internationa system, and broady share simiar perspectives in reation to the Three Freedoms. as it eaves the eu, the uk shoud deveop coser CanZuK reations in trave and visas, trade, and foreign affairs and defence. in particuar: free movement: Between 62% and 82% of austraian, Canadian, new Zeaand and British respondents caim that they woud ike to see a common trave area instituted between the four countries. 97 Since 1973, there has been a common trave area known as the Trans-Tasman agreement between austraia and new Zeaand, which coud serve as the mode for a wider CanZuK area. The uk shoud propose the creation of a simiar area, extended to a CanZuK states. For exampe, citizens woud sti require passports to work in the common area, and they woud not be abe to caim unempoyment (or other) benefits for a five-year period on arriva. free trade: austraia and new Zeaand have the deepest and broadest free trade agreement in the word. This shoud be progressivey expanded and repicated across a CanZuK nations, potentiay evoving to eventuay incude aso the us. integrated dipomacy: given their shared vaues and interests, the uk shoud propose the creation of a coordination mechanism to take heed of austraian, Canadian and new Zeaand perspectives in reation to its permanent seat on the un Security Counci. This coud potentiay deveop into an integrated CanZuK seat within the next 25 years at the un. CanZuK nations coud increase the sharing of dipomatic faciities. Miitary cooperation and procurement: Buiding on existing miitary arrangements, the CanZuK aies and the us shoud pursue more miitary exchange programmes and joint procurement, such as the Type 26 acquisition and the deveopment of next generation radars between the uk (ise of Wight) and austraia. This cooperation coud even be extended to other FPda aies to provide more vaue-for-money when procuring common nava patforms and maritime technoogies. Joint indo-pacific feet: Centred on a Queen eizabeth-cass aircraft carrier, the uk coud propose the estabishment of a CanZuK indo-pacific fotia or task group, which coud evove into a standing and interoperabe indo-pacific Feet. austraia and Canada coud provide the buk of destroyers, frigates and support vesses, with additiona contributions from new Zeaand. This feet woud faciitate arger joint exercises with other FPda aies, as we as South Korea, Japan, india and the us, to deepen aied joint operations and reationships in the indo-pacific. space coaboration: The uk is we paced to seize the opportunities of the commercia space age. it aready produces 40% of a sma sateites gobay and ooks to deveop commercia aunch systems and a future goba Sateite navigation System. 98 Buiding on its existing agreement with austraia, the uk shoud partner with other CanZuK countries to deepen and broaden its space and space-defence potentia. 99 Defence Pact: due to the deterioration in goba security, the CanZuK aies aong with the us, which aready has deep aiances or arrangements in pace with each of them shoud consider the formation of a mutua defence pact. This coud incude a mutua defence cause, akin to nato s artice 5. 31

34 8.2 actions to ensure freedom from oppression as one of the founders of the internationa order and shapers of the modern word, Britain is a custodian of the rues-based system. Supporting this deveopment is one of the uk s greatest achievements. However, despite Britain s roe as a defender of mutiateraism, it shoud practise what it preaches. athough intended to confront oppression, the ibera imperiaism of the 1990s and 2000s, whist we-intentioned, disregarded the wishes of others. With hindsight, the uk intervened too much without propery considering the costs that woud be invoved, both materia and human. There are essons here for Britain, as we as other countries. The current order is exempified through the united nations. despite its many faws, the un embodies the Three Freedoms not east Freedom from oppression in its founding charter, the roots of which go back to the decaration of St. James Paace in in many parts of the word, the un retains credibiity, especiay amongst smaer and deveoping nations, which see it as a means to prevent revisionism and uphod the rues-based system. using its permanent seat on the Security Counci, as we as its wider infuence, the uk shoud champion the importance of un reform. it shoud aso pursue the Three Freedoms through the un, by: Pursuing its Freedom from oppression campaign in the un, which coud, in addition to actions against savery, encompass the Rue of aw and Justice concepts that many nations naturay associate with the uk. engaging more in un peacekeeping operations, either by supporting two operations at a time, or by deivering unique or expert capabiity, such as Counter-Terrorism or a spearhead capabiity. investing in a new Headquarters for the British Mission in new york City to house un and Consuar staff to ensure they are abe to cutivate uk soft power. There is no reason why this new faciity coud not be shared with other CanZuK aies. ooking to europe, whie the uk pans to eave the eu, its abiity to work with Brusses wi remain important. it is right that the FCo is investing more personne into the eu and european capitas. 101 athough it is eaving the eu, the eu and its member states, most of which are aso nato aies, wi remain cose partners. in reation to european defence, the uk kept a standing army in europe throughout the Cod War, becoming a de facto continenta power for one of the few periods in its history. over the past two decades, however, that has been changing as the uk has reduced its european footprint, particuary with the phased withdrawa of British armed Forces from germany. The uk wi of course continue to underpin the strategic defence of europe through nato it is the eading contributor to the enhanced Forward Presence in the Batic states and Poand and a sma presence wi remain in germany but it is re-orienting towards becoming a goba, seafaring, trading power, a stance more compatibe with Britain s maritime perspective, whist continuing with aiances od and new to preserve freedom in europe. The uk shoud encourage the argest and weathiest nato european aies Spain, itay, France and, particuary, germany to meet their commitment, made at the nato Summit in Waes in 2014, to increase defence spending coser to 2% of their gdp by european nato states can and shoud do more to hep deter Russia from revisionist activities, which woud enabe the uk to focus on more distant, goba chaenges. However, the renewed threat from Russia means Britain cannot ignore its cosest neighbours. This threat runs through four domains: cyber and information warfare, Russian conventiona 32

35 miitary dominance of eastern europe, european-theatre missie dominance, and european-theatre tactica nucear dominance. 102 Therefore, the uk shoud continue to invest in: a highy depoyabe British army, with a arger reserve eement and a significant expeditionary capabiity, to ensure that the uk is abe to continue to fight wars far from home, particuary in defence of its exposed nato aies in the event of a crisis. depoyabiity is aso a form of deterrence. a Roya air Force sufficient to achieve two aims: first, support troops and ships in overseas depoyment effectivey a nava and army air arm and second, a strategic air defence for the uk and nato. 103 The importance of the ground and nava air support has been underestimated by the Roya air Force, which has been historicay dominated by fighter piots. This is changing but shoud change more rapidy to ensure the RaF s reevance and therefore surviva as an independent service. in addition, in keeping with the second objective, the RaF wi need new systems to provide protection against new generations of missies, incuding new anti-missie systems (incuding radar) as we as continued investment in cyber. Finay, the uk shoud do more to fight oppression in eastern europe, particuary in ukraine (see Box 4). box 4: the strategic significance of ukraine We beieve that there is a powerfu case for a significanty improved, upgraded integrated approach to ukraine, as an exampe of how a joined-up uk goba strategy coud work. in the east Savic word consisting of Russia, Bearus and ukraine ukraine is the ony state that resembes a functioning democracy. 104 as such, it is a front ine nation in the batte between ibera democracy and authoritarianism. it is a country of some 45 miion peope, with a highy educated popuation with high tech industries which seeks to be part of the democratic word. Whist the uk spends money through internationa institutions, its oda to ukraine is sma. Tota spending for financia year wi be around 35.2 miion, 105 an insignificant sum of money in terms of tota internationa deveopment expenditure, when Britain has provided over 2.7 biion for humanitarian work in the Syrian crisis since 2012 equivaent to 386 miion per year. 106 Whie the uk may have a strong humanitarian mission in Syria, its strategic interest there is imited. given ukraine s strategic significance, it is concerning how itte the uk has done since the invasion by Russia in The purpose of an aid programme to ukraine woud not be primariy humanitarian work, but to deveop the economic and poitica institutions of a democratic state. These woud be governance programmes with a strategic purpose and hence aowed under our proposed new rues. The uk shoud seek to coordinate poicy more with Canada, which is heaviy invested in ukraine due to the infuence of its ukrainian diaspora (Canada s current Foreign Minister is partiay of ukrainian stock), the us and the eu. Within reason, the more the uk supports ukraine, the more it deters Russian aggression. The more Britain equivocates, the more it encourages the Kremin to invest in destabiising ukraine. 8.3 actions to protect and project freedom of thought The uk and its democratic aies are in a goba batte with authoritarian states to shape narratives and vaues around the word. it is a batte that democrats shoud aim to win rather 33

36 than simpy participate in. Britain has three instruments it coud strengthen to promote Freedom of Thought: the bbc word service is a unique patform for uk soft power. it is a remarkabe institution perhaps the most powerfu too of goba infuence on earth. Whist it is not a voice for the uk government, it is a voice for British vaues. every week, the BBC Word Service reaches over 376 miion peope, projected to rise to over 500 miion by it taks to 16 miion egyptians, 13 miion iranians, 12 miion afghans and nine miion Pakistanis per week. 108 arguaby, it is the greatest instrument the uk has in support of freedom of thought. it is extraordinariy short-sighted that successive British governments have underfunded the BBC Word Service its budget was cut by 16% in 2010, just as broadcasters from authoritarian rivas were having money pumped into them. 109 This is particuary egregious given that the sick and better-funded propaganda outets of the authoritarian, revisionist powers such as Russia Today (RT), iran s PressTV and China s engish anguage channes are on the offensive, seeking to infuence the citizens of ess-deveoped countries. Therefore, the BBC Word Service shoud be expanded and provided with up to 1 biion annuay to give it the power to compete against authoritarian rivas. it shoud be given the task of becoming the goba broadcaster of integrity, continuing to set a benchmark standard in radio and estabishing one in teevision to counter authoritarian state broadcasters. an extended and upifted BBC Word Service shoud be axiomatic for any integrated and coherent poicy of overseas engagement. This woud especiay assume an upift in BBC Russian, Chinese and Persian services. the british Counci is an extraordinariy powerfu vehice for the projection of British cuture in the broadest sense of the word, which encompasses not ony high and ow cutures from Shakespeare to the Roing Stones and Sherock Homes to Viz but aso ega, poitica and scientific cutures. unfortunatey, ike the BBC Word Service, the British Counci has aso decined in scae in recent years, from 196 offices operating in 2013 to 173 in 2018; meanwhie, China has baooned from 320 Confucius institutes to 507, whie Russia has more than doubed the presence of its Russkiy Mir Foundations from 82 to 171 over the same period. 110 Whie this says nothing of the quaity of projection from those offices, it is more evidence that autocracies are on the march. as part of the proposed nationa goba Strategy, the British Counci shoud aso receive an upift in funding. it shoud be tasked with becoming a mode of best practise for goba cutura institutions. Whist the (partia) sef-funding mode is important to deiver vaue for money, there are greater priorities than baancing the books. the Marsha and Chevening schoarship Programmes give foreign students the opportunity to study in the uk and immerse themseves in Britain s open, ibera cuture. There are 1,650 such Chevening Schoarships per year. 111 These are one-year graduate courses which can be taken at any uk institution. They shoud be increased in number, and extended to cover undergraduate programmes in exceptiona cases, as we as doctora courses where uk-based dissertations, especiay in the fied of science and medicine, coud produce significant benefits for mankind. The uk shoud do the same with the Marsha Programme to support more us students here too. There are up to 50 per year currenty. 112 Britain needs taented students, and if they study in the uk, they are ikey to make it their home. 34

37 Finay, goba engagement does not start at dover. as Box 5 shows, the uk s abiity to project the Three Freedoms depends on the strengthening of the same freedoms especiay Freedom from oppression and Freedom of Thought at home. box 5: Promoting nationa resiiency at home To promote and protect Freedom from oppression in the uk and to aign our domestic and foreign poicies, the uk shoud: introduce better trafficking awareness poicies in the nationa Heath Service (nhs) and other pubic institutions. The goba Savery index estimates that there are 40.3 miion victims of human trafficking, savery and indentured abour gobay. of those, 136,000 are in Britain. 113 given its roe as a pubic service, the nhs is perhaps most aware of the scae of the probem. one in eight nhs heathcare professionas know or suspect they have come in contact with a victim, rising to one in five in maternity services. 114 Prevent British sodiers from iving in fear due to the potentia for the misuse of aw in the ethica service of their country. The uk Supreme Court has argued that there is a growing risk of extensive itigation effectivey awfare before and during confict, eading to the judiciaisation of war. 115 new protections are required to prevent the aggressive use of human rights egisation against British forces for poitica purposes. on Freedom of Thought at home (and the threat of maign foreign infuence) we suggest the uk: deveops a significanty greater understanding of the threats posed to free eectora systems by artificia inteigence, big data and cyber infitration. Russia is aready attempting to weaponise artificia inteigence. 116 This is especiay important foowing the 2016 us presidentia eection and the theft by the Russian gru inteigence agency of eection data. 117 We suggest a uk Commission, perhaps one jointy sponsored with other nations (the us, ukraine, Canada and austraia) to examine the dangers and opportunities of artificia inteigence and big data in both democracies and non-democratic states. The uk is in a strong position to ead the artificia inteigence debate, as it has a significant and growing artificia inteigence industry. Forms a sma, permanent muti-agency group whose roe woud be to understand and expose threatening foreign subversive activities, both domesticay and abroad. estabishes a Foreign agents act, isting the Pubic Reations agencies, reputation management firms, obbyists, and others who work as agents for foreign states or their proxies. Both the us and austraia have introduced simiar acts the us in the 1930s and austraia in grants the office of Communications greater powers. The atvian government, for exampe, reguary highights the negative content of Russian broadcasters based in ondon who spew out propaganda to the Batic nations. investigations take up to a year. against the West, RT (formery Russia Today) and Sputnik churn out a reguar diet of anti-western propaganda. RT and Sputnik shoud not be banned, but Britain shoud strengthen fines and rights of repy and ensure that ofcom investigates broadcasters of knowingy fake or propagandistic news more quicky. a Counter Propaganda Bi is currenty going through the us Congress. Britain needs to consider the same. This woud mandate a heath warning be paced on broadcasters who do not have an independent editoria ine. Pursues a more aggressive and assertive use of financia and ega powers, incuding unexpained Weath orders (and use of the Magnitsky amendment) to make the uk an unwecoming environment for poiticians who have stoen from, rather than served, their peope

38 Sets up a diaspora goba advisory Counci to advise the Foreign Secretary on how to empower diaspora communities in the uk to support and deepen Britain s reationships with nations throughout the word. 120 updates British visa poicy to prevent those who might harm Britain s reputation from visiting or migrating. 121 However, the uk shoud continue to attract students to study (both in universities and private schoos), as we as those with advanced quaifications or unique skis. Britain shoud pursue, and is getting, a standard points-based visa system, abeit with the fexibiity for the uk to remain an attractive destination for students and workers. Whist these recommendations are domestic, they send critica messages to friends and adversaries gobay as to the British vaues system. The uk shoud be consistent in what it says and what it does. However, athough a domestic focus on nationa resiiency is necessary, it is no substitute for concerted and integrated goba action. it is better to chaenge the forces of protectionism, oppression and prejudice overseas than on the streets of the uk. 36

39 9. ConCusion The uk has an extraordinary depth of reationships with so many parts of the word. Britain is goba, through its history and trade, immigration and emigration, and ideas and intermarriage. We have argued in this report that: Britain s aims shoud be aigned with ways and means in other words, the uk shoud use strategy. To deveop strategy more effectivey, Britain needs a nationa Strategy Counci to produce a nationa goba Strategy, ooking ten years ahead. overa the uk has a proud history, and one which shoud inspire it to protect and promote the vaues of open and free societies. This is the inspiration behind the Three Freedoms: Freedom for Trade, Freedom from oppression, and Freedom of Thought. integration between the departments of state heps deiver better poicies that have a greater impact for Britain. With the Fusion doctrine, the government is attempting to integrate more and this shoud be wecomed. However, more can be done. Therefore, dfid and dit shoud be amagamated into the FCo as agencies, foowing the mode used in austraia and Canada. integration at senior eves is not enough. integration shoud take pace at a eves. Therefore, ambassadors and high commissioners shoud have ine management of a staff, regardess of department, and be responsibe for deveoping integrated pans. Within teams there shoud be a singe ega chain to speed decision-making, to prevent operations moving at the pace of the most risk averse government awyers. There is an imbaance in overseas spending. Hence, the definition of uk funding for internationa deveopment shoud be changed so that it can be used to support wider deveopment goas as we as the uk s strategic interests. This assumes an upift in spending for the FCo and the Mod, with the atter receiving an increase to as much as 3% of gdp. one of the uk s greatest assets is the BBC Word Service. Whist not a too of government, it is a patform for British vaues. That is why it shoud be mandated to become the goba broadcast of integrity on a major audio and visua patforms. Funding shoud be earmarked at up to 1 biion per annum. The batte for the twenty-first century is, in part, a strugge between open and cosed societies. Promoting democracy and ibera vaues abroad means ensuring their protection at home, which is why new ways to protect freedom, democracy and freedom of thought in the uk are required. Finay, goba Britain shoud reach out to a the nations in the word, especiay to the Commonweath nations of austraia, Canada and new Zeaand to form a new CanZuK aiance. 37

40 endnotes 1 May, T., Britain after Brexit: a Vision of a goba Britain, CCHQ Press, 2 october 2016, avaiabe at: ast visited: 28 January Johnson, B., Beyond Brexit: a goba Britain, Gov.uk, 2 december 2016, avaiabe at: beyond-brexit-a-goba-britain, ast visited: 28 January For exampe, see: goba Britain, House of Commons: Foreign Affairs Committee (2018), avaiabe at: ast visited: 28 January 2019, p.5. 4 Macdonad, S., ora evidence in FCo budget and capacity, and annua Report , House of Commons: Foreign Affairs Committee (2018), avaiabe at: ast visited: 9 January government departments argue that they are deveoping a more integrated approach through the Fusion doctrine and, consequenty, that the uk is moving towards a nationa grand strategy of sorts. Whist the 2015 nationa Security Strategy and Strategic defence and Security Review and the 2017 nationa Security Capabiity Review do cover economic prosperity, soft power, aid and infuence, they remain primariy security-focused documents. it is aso true that whist there are compementary government strategies the industria Strategy (with internationa eements), the export Strategy, etc the uk sti acks an overarching grand strategy. 6 Foreign Secretary announces 250 new dipomatic roes and ten new sovereign missions overseas, Gov.uk, 21 March 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 31 January as part of this review, the authors have taked to over two dozen individuas from think tanks, the FCo, the Mod and other departments. We have aso examined many foreign nationa and security strategies, as we as the uk s goba Strategic Trends, uk defence doctrine and the nationa Security Capabiity Review. We have aso read the House of ords exceent 2014 Persuasion and Power in the Modern Word, and works by the Henry Jackson Society, the British Foreign Poicy group, Poicy exchange and speeches by the Secretaries of State for Foreign affairs, defence, internationa deveopment and internationa Trade. See: Voennaya doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii (Miitary doctrine of the Russian Federation), Russian Federation (2015), avaiabe at: ast visited: 10 January 2019; Kontseptsiya vneshney poitiki Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Foreign Poicy Concept), Russian Federation: Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2016), para. 4, avaiabe at: cknonkje02bw/content/id/ , ast visited: 10 January 2019; natsionanoi Bezopasnosti Rossiskoi Federatsii (nationa Security Strategies), Russian Federation (2017), artice 12, p.4, avaiabe at: ast visited: 10 January 2019; doktrina informatsionnoi Bezopasnosti Rossiskoi Federatsii (doctrine of information Security), Russian Federation (2016), pp.5-6, avaiabe at: 1&rangeSize=1, ast visited: 10 January 2019; Foreign Poicy White Paper, Austraian Government (2017), avaiabe at: ast visited: 24 november 2018; goba Strategic Trends, 6th ed., Ministry of Defence (2018), avaiabe at: attachment_data/fie/754732/gst6_web_version_v2.pdf, ast visited: 28 January 2019; uk Joint defence doctrine 0-01: uk defence doctrine, Ministry of Defence (2014), avaiabe at: system/upoads/attachment_data/fie/389755/ jdp_0_01_ed_5_uk_defence_doctrine.pdf, ast visited: 28 January 2019; nationa Security Capabiity Review, HM Government (2018), avaiabe at: government/upoads/system/upoads/ attachment_data/fie/705347/6.4391_co_nationa-security-review_web.pdf, ast visited: 10 december 2018; Persuasion and Power in the Modern Word, House of Lords: Seect Committee on Soft Power and the UK s infuence (2014), avaiabe at: para ; Rogers, J., Towards goba Britain : Chaenging the new narratives of nationa decine, The Henry Jackson Society (2017), avaiabe at: ast visited: 14 January 2019; Cargi, T., The Price of Freedom?, British Foreign Poicy Group (2018), avaiabe at: ast visited: 14 January 2019; eefteriu, g., a Question of Power, Poicy Exchange (2018), avaiabe at: ast visited: 14 January 2019; Johnson, B., Beyond Brexit: a goba Britain, Gov.uk, 2 december 2016; Hunt, J., Speaking at the Bright Bue Christmas event, ondon, 17 december 2018; Wiiamson, g., Modernising defence Programme update, 18 december 2019, Gov.uk, avaiabe at: ast visited: 14 January Hunt, J., 34th Fuerton ecture: Britain s roe in a post-brexit word, Internationa Institute for Strategic Studies, 2 January 2019, avaiabe at: post-brexit-word, ast visited: 30 January For Roya navy assets, see: Hochschid, a., Bury the Chains: Prophets and Rebes in the Fight to Free an Empire s Saves, (new york: Houghton Miffin Harcourt, 2005), p For West african Squadron data, see: Chasing Freedom information Sheet, Roya Nava Museum, avaiabe at: see_victory_cfexhibition_infosheet.htm, ast visited: 29 January notwithstanding the appaing osses of the peope of the Soviet union, it is worth noting that the Soviet government began the Second Word War as an ay of nazi germany. 11 Rudd, K., ora evidence in China and the internationa rues-based system, House of Commons: Foreign Affairs Committee (2018), avaiabe at: ast visited: 10 december Patten, C., ora evidence: China and the internationa rues-based system House of Commons: Foreign Affairs Committee (2019), avaiabe at: ast visited: 15 January 2019, Q orwe, g., Engand Your Engand (ondon: Penguin Cassics, 2017 [1941]). 38

41 14 in 2018, Sir Simon Mcdonad, the Head of the dipomatic Service, and Sir John Major, a former Prime Minister, both defined the uk either as medium-sized or a midde-sized, midde-ranking nation. See: Maddox, d., don t beitte Britain! Tory MP ays into top mandarin over comments on post-brexit future, Daiy Mai, 5 June 2018, avaiabe at: uk/969393/brexit-news-bob-seey- ise-of-wight-conservative-mp-simon-mcdonad-medium-sized-nation, ast visited: 30 december 2018 and Major, J., i have made no fase promises on Brexit i m free to te you the truth, The Guardian, 16 october 2018, avaiabe at: brexit-john-major, ast visited: 30 december Rogers, J., audit of geopoitica Capabiity: an assessment of Twenty Major Powers, The Henry Jackson Society (2019), avaiabe at: Report-web.pdf, ast visited: 29 January ibid., p ibid., p ibid., p gnp, atas Method (current us$), Word Bank, 2017, avaiabe at: year_high_desc=true, ast visited: 29 January goba Weath databook 2018, Credit Suisse Research Institute (2018), avaiabe at: assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/pubications/goba-weath-databook-2018.pdf, ast visited: 29 January 2019, p Rogers, J., audit of geopoitica Capabiity: an assessment of Twenty Major Powers (2019), p university Rankings 2019, Times Higher Education, 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 30 January Socia Progress index, Socia Progress Imperative, 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 10 december Rogers, J., audit of geopoitica Capabiity: an assessment of Twenty Major Powers (2019), p ihs Markit, Jane s Fighting Ships (ihs goba imited, 2018). 26 Hope, C., Britain to become true goba payer post-brexit with miitary bases in South east asia and Caribbean, says defence Secretary, Teegraph on Sunday, 30 december 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 7 January The internationa institute for Strategic Studies, The Miitary Baance 2018: The Annua Assessment of Goba Miitary Capabiities and Defence Economics (abingdon: Routedge, 2018), pp Rogers, J., audit of geopoitica Capabiity: an assessment of Twenty Major Powers (2019), p This comment has aso been made in: deivering goba Britain: FCo Skis, House of Commons: Foreign Affairs Committee (2018), avaiabe at: /1254.pdf, ast visited: 10 december 2018, Concusion para 1, op For the purposes of this document, hard power is generay seen as coercive power, be it miitary power or economic sanctions, for exampe. Soft power is generay defined as those powers or vaues which attract others. There is a compex interpay of the two, as when, for exampe, information operations/ propaganda is used to incite vioence. The inteigent combination of different forms of hard and soft power has sometimes been referred to as smart power. Smart power impies an integration of the toos of state power to become more than the sum of their parts. For more on these terms, see: nye, J., Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power (york: Basic Books, 1990); nye, J., Soft Power: The Means to Success in Word Poitics (new york: Pubic affairs, 2004); nye, J., The Future of Power (new york: Pubic affairs, 2011). 31 Jones, S., Home office seizes overseas counterterror roe, Financia Times, 29 March 2016, avaiabe at: content/279c262e-f5c9-11e5-803c-d27c7117d132, ast visited: 10 december This fear was expressed by defence Secretary Mattis in a etter to uk defence Secretary of State, gavin Wiiamson. See: us defence secretary intervenes in uk miitary budget row, The Guardian, 2 Juy 2018, avaiabe at: poitics/2018/ju/02/us-defence-secretary-james-mattis- uk-miitary-spending, ast visited: 9 January See: Payne, S., Where shoud Britain go post-brexit? eight foreign secretaries respond, FT Weekend Magazine, 11 January 2019, avaiabe at: ast visited: 11 January nationa Security Capabiity Review, HM Government (2018), pp Singer, P., is Vioence History?, review of The Better Anges of our Nature by Steven Pinker, New York Times, 6 october 2011, avaiabe at: ast visited: 28 January Freedom in the Word: Country Status distribution, , Freedom House, 2018, avaiabe at: sites/defaut/fies/country%20status%20distribution%20fiw xsx, ast visited: 28 January gni per capita, atas method (current us$), Word Bank, 2017, avaiabe at: ny.gnp.pcap.cd?end=2017&start=1962, ast visited: 28 January Hunt, J., Speaking at the Bright Bue Christmas event, ondon, 17 december See: Freedom in the Word: Country and Territory Ratings and Statuses, [exce Tabe], Freedom House, 2018, avaiabe at: %20FiW xsx, ast visited: 28 January Modernising defence Statement, Gov.uk, 18 december 2019, avaiabe at: modernising-defence-programme-update. 41 Carter, n., dynamic Security Threats and the British army, Roya United Services Institute, 22 January 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 15 January For reference, see Seey, R., defining Contemporary Russian Warfare, The RUSI Journa, (2017), p.42 and Seey, R. and aya Shandra, The tookit for Kremin s new warfare, The Times, 2 apri 2018, avaiabe at: artice/the-tookit-for-kremin-s-new-warfare-6kthqgd7t, ast visited: 16 January

42 43 The easiest way to disarm an opponent s ideoogica arsena is to deny them the advantage of accessing their own arsena, whie simutaneousy ensuring continuous and unimpeded access to it yoursef. This is reminiscent of the aim of contemporary cyber warfare. Both Russia s direct and/or proxy anti-hegemonic action is to be thought of in this context, with the atter meaning essentiay the estabishment of, or ending support to, oca spoiers on the ground. These spoiers can take the form of marginaised radica right and eft parties but aso corrupt and captured business and poitica eites, as we as expert communities or usefu idiots thus heping proxy spoiers expoit oca discontents. More aggressive forms of anti-hegemonic offensive incude officia anti-narratives in Russia s domestic and internationa discourses, and covert strategic communication means, such as hybrid troing, i.e. the use of onine spoiers to generate negative narratives to poute an adversary s own hegemonic chain. Rogers, J. and andriy Tyushka, Hacking into the West: Russia s anti-hegemonic drive and the Strategic narrative offensive, Defence Strategic Communications, 2 (2017), p.49. For exampes, see: What Facebook did to american democracy, The Atantic, 12 october 2017, avaiabe at: what-facebook-did/542502/, ast visited: 16 January 2019; Russian propaganda may have been shared hundreds of miions of times, new research says, The Washington Post, 5 october 2017, avaiabe at: the-switch/wp/2017/10/05/russian-propaganda-may-have-been-shared-hundreds-of-miions-of-times-new-research-says/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bd717a9f9ed8, ast visited: 16 January 2019; The agency, The New York Times Magazine, 2 June 2015, avaiabe at: ast visited 16 January See: Seey, R., a definition of Contemporary Russian Confict: How does the Kremin Wage War?, The Henry Jackson Society (2018), avaiabe at: Russian-Confict-new-branding.pdf, ast visited: 10 december Voennaya doktrina Rossiiskoi Federatsii (Miitary doctrine of the Russian Federation), Russian Federation (2015); Kontseptsiya vneshney poitiki Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Foreign Poicy Concept), Russian Federation: Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2016), para.4; natsionanoi Bezopasnosti Rossiskoi Federatsii (nationa Security Strategies), Russian Federation (2017), artice 12, p.4; doktrina informatsionnoi Bezopasnosti Rossiskoi Federatsii (doctrine of information Security), Russian Federation (2016), pp Voennaya doktrina Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Miitary doctrine of the Russian Federation), Russian Federation (2015), artice 15 a), p iang, Q. and Xiansui, W., Unrestricted Warfare (Beijing: Pa iterature and arts Pubishing House, February 1999). 48 See: Hemmings, J. and Rogers, J., The South China Sea: Why it matters to goba Britain, The Henry Jackson Society (2019), avaiabe at: the-south-china-sea-why-it-matters-to-goba-britain/, ast visited: 31 January Seey, R., Wiiamson is right. China and Huawei are threats to our security, Conservative Home, 20 december 2018, ast visited: 31 January See, for exampe: Hamiton, C., Sient Invasion: China s Infuence in Austraia (ondon: Hardie grant Books: 2018). 51 See, for exampe, the two indictments thus far from Robert Mueer s investigation into Russian inks to the 2016 Trump presidentia campaign: Mueer indictment against 12 Russian spies for dnc hack, Vox, 13 Juy 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 10 december according to Freedom House, there are 146 Free and Party Free countries in the word in 2018, compared to 49 that are considered not Free. To find data, see: Freedom in the Word: Country Status distribution, [exce Tabe], Freedom House, For more on strategy formuation, see the us army War Coege s guide: Barthoomees, Jr., J. B. (ed.), us army War Coege guide to nationa Security issues, Voume i: Theory of War and Strategy, 5th ed., (Carise: Strategic Studies institute, us army War Coege, 2012), avaiabe at: ast visited: 28 January Bershidisky,., The uk s new Warfare doctrine ooks Famiiar, Boomberg, 29 March 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 10 december Securitisation refers to a situation whereby a country defines increasingy more issues as security threats, to the extent that they begin to override a other foreign poicy considerations. For more on the origina concept, see: Waever, o., Securitization and desecuritisation, in ipschutz, R. d., On Security (new york City: Coumbia university Press, 1995). 56 estabishment of a nationa Security Counci, Nationa Archives, 12 May 2010, avaiabe at: ast visited: 31 January athough the nationa Security Counci aims to ensure that ministers consider nationa security in the round and in a strategic way, it is nevertheess security-focused. it addresses four groups of security- reated matters: 1. Threats, hazards, resiience and contingencies; 2. nucear deterrence and security; 3. Matters reating to impementing the Strategic defence and Security Review and nationa Security Strategy (incuding cyber matters); and 4. Cross-government funds. See: nationa Security Counci, Gov.uk, 2019, avaiabe at: ast visited: 31 January For a succinct overview of the Bet and Road initiative, see: Himan, J. e., How Big is China s Bet and Road?, Centre for Strategic and Internationa Studies, 3 apri 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 31 January as has aso been argued by former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and the current head of the Foreign affairs Committee, Tom Tugendhat. See: Boris Johnson cas for uk s aid department to be cosed, Financia Times, 11 January 2019, avaiabe at: asted visited: 15 January 2019; Tugendhat, T., Tom Tugendhat on defending the Rues, Roya United Services Institute, 29 May 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 15 January one HMg overseas, Nationa Audit Office (2015), avaiabe at: ast visited: 31 January 2019, p ibid., p.8. 40

43 62 The probems caused by excessive egaese have been documented by: Tugendhat, T. and Croft., The Fog of aw: an introduction to the ega erosion of British fighting power, Poicy Exchange (2013), avaiabe at: wp-content/upoads/2016/09/the-fog-of-aw.pdf,ast visited: 25 november one HMg overseas, Nationa Audit Office (2015), p according to data from the organisation for economic Cooperation and deveopment, uk spending on oda as a percentage of gni increased by 22.5% from 2010 to 2017, or from 0.57% to 0.7% of gni. See: net oda united Kingdom, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Deveopment, 2017, avaiabe at: ast visited: 3 February Meanwhie, according to nato figures, uk defence spending as a percentage of rea gdp fe by 14.5% over the same period, from 2.48% to 2.12% of rea gdp. See: defence expenditure of nato Countries ( ), North Atantic Treaty Organisation (2017), avaiabe at: pr en.pdf, ast visited: 3 January 2019, p internationa deveopment (officia deveopment assistance Target) act 2015, HM Stationary Office Ltd (2015), avaiabe at: ast visited: 3 February one exampe incudes dfid funding for a gir Band caed yegna in ethiopia, to hep promote women s rights. This was due to receive 5.2 miion from the British taxpayer between , in addition to the 4 miion it received from after pubic outrage instigated by a campaign by the British press, dfid cut funding, announcing that There are more effective ways to invest uk aid. See: By ethiopians, for ethiopians : gir band yegna shake off Spice girs tag, ose uk funding, The Guardian, 5 March 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 28 January Birre, i., Britain shoud stop wasting money on foreign aid, Daiy Teegraph, 22 Juy 2015, avaiabe at: ast visited: 15 January Comptroer and auditor genera, Managing the officia deveopment assistance target a report on progress, Nationa Audit Office: Internationa Deveopment Committee (2017), avaiabe at: Managing-the-officia-deveopment-assistance-target-a-report-on-progress.pdf, ast visited: 28 January 2019, p This information was discovered during a visit by one of the authors Bob Seey MP to Syria during Juy The answer to this probem may be to increase dfid staff to enabe the uk to directy fund smaer groups, rather than having to push the money through ayers of internationa non-governmenta organisations. 71 See: officia deveopment assistance definition and coverage, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Deveopment, 2019, avaiabe at: definitionandcoverage.htm, ast visited: 20 January See Box 2, point 2.a. 73 Confict, Stabiity and Security Fund: annua Report 2017/18, HM Government (2018), avaiabe at: depositedpapers/fies/dep /2017_18_annua_report_fina.pdf, ast visited: 17 January 2019, p ibid, p department for internationa deveopment: overseas aid: Written question , HM Government: Department for Internationa Deveopment (2018), avaiabe at: ast visited: 17 January department for Business, energy and industria Strategy: overseas aid: Written question , HM Government: Department for Business, Energy and Industria Strategy (2018), avaiabe at: written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/commons/ /202799/, ast visited: 17 January Cabinet office: overseas aid: Written question , HM Government: Cabinet Office (2018), avaiabe at: /202898/, ast visited: 17 January 2019; overseas aid: Written question , HM Government: Foreign and Commonweath Office (2018), avaiabe at: ast visited at: 17 January 2019; Home office: overseas aid: Written question , HM Government: Home Office (2018), avaiabe at: written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/commons/ / /, ast visited: 17 January of the current 339 miion Word Service funding (excuding BBC Word TV which is commerciay funded), 254 miion is funded from the BBC icence and 85 miion from the FCo. information received by emai to Bob Seey MP from Juia Harris, Pubic affairs Manager, Word Service group, on 11 January For the BBC Word Service budget that is considered to meet the criteria for oda, see: Statistics on internationa deveopment, HM Government: Department for Internationa Deveopment (2018), avaiabe at: fie/771136/statistics-on-internationa-deveopment-fina-uk-aid-spend-2017-jan-revisions.pdf, ast visited: 15 January 2019, p according to the Word Bank, uk gni was us$2.675 triion in See: gni, atas method (current us$), Word Bank, 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 9 January biion converts to just under us$2 biion. 80 Povcanet, The Word Bank, 2019, avaiabe at: povondemand.aspx, ast visited: 14 January ibid. 82 abraham, R., ora evidence in Committee expore the uk and india s economic reationship, House of Commons: Foreign Affairs Committee, 20 november 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 9 January net oda, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Deveopment, 2017, avaiabe at: ast visited: 11 January

44 84 From , the uk was at the forefront of internationa efforts to reform the rues in reation to the use of oda money on peacekeeping, vioent extremism and working with the private sector. See: Changes to officia aid rues, Gov.uk, 19 February 2016, avaiabe at: government/news/changes-to-officia-aid-rues, ast visited: 3 February in 2017, data from the organisation for economic Cooperation and deveopment shows that the uk spent us$18.6 biion on oda, third after the us (us$34.1 biion) and germany (us$24.2 biion). See: net oda, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Deveopment, We shoud ike to credit John Morgan for taking to us on this point. See aso: uk aid: aocation of resources, House of Commons: Internationa Deveopment Committee (2017), avaiabe at: cmseect/cmintdev/100/100.pdf, ast visited: 17 January 2019, p it was for this reason that Penny Mordaunt, the Secretary of State for internationa deveopment, recenty managed to get the oecd to ater its definition of oda to aow for money to be given to high-income countries and territories during and after natura disasters, but further reforms coud sti be achieved. See: uk seeks reforms on overseas aid spending, Financia Times, 9 october 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 15 January See: Statistics on internationa deveopment: Fina uk aid Spend 2017, Gov.uk, 2018, avaiabe at: government/statistics/statistics-on-internationa-deveopment-fina-uk-aid-spend-2017, ast visited: 31 January For more on the outcome of the Word Humanitarian Summit, pease see: Commitments to action, Word Humanitarian Summit, 9 September 2016, avaiabe at: WHS_Commitment_to_action_8September2016.pdf, ast visited: 3 February Tabe C9: Broad Sector Breakdown of uk Biatera oda [exce Tabe], Gov.uk, 29 november 2018, avaiabe at: attachment_data/fie/759705/tabec9a.ods, ast visited: 3 February Mordaunt, P., ora evidence in The Future of uk aid post -Brexit, CDC London: Department for Internationa Deveopment, 9 october 2018, avaiabe at: aid-post-brexit, ast visited: 9 January This impies an annua spend of approximatey 50 biion- 60 biion. in 2017, uk gdp reached triion. See: gross domestic Product, Office for Nationa Statistics, 21 december 2018, avaiabe at: grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/qna, ast visited: 20 January For defence spending upift recommendations, see: indispensabe aies: us, nato and uk defence reations, House of Commons: Defence Committee (2018), avaiabe at: pa/cm201719/cmseect/cmdfence/387/387.pdf, ast visited: 29 January 2019, pp and Rogers, J., goba Britain and the Future of the British armed Forces, The Henry Jackson Society (2017), avaiabe at: Forces-Report-2.0.pdf, ast visited: 29 January 2019, pp For foreign affairs spending, the British Foreign Poicy group recommends that the FCo budget be increased by 1.5 biion, taking it from 2.05 biion ( ) to 3.55 biion in dipomatic spending per head terms, this is comparabe to other major countries such as France, germany, Canada and austraia. See: The Price of Freedom? a 3% gdp Target for Securing uk internationa interests, British Foreign Poicy Group (2018), avaiabe at: ast visited: 29 January 2019, p.2 and p.6. See aso: Carghi, T., The imits of Budget dipomacy, British Foreign Poicy Group, 22 november 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 29 January For the concept of normaisation, see: Rogers, J. and aessandro Renzui, after the nato Summit: Towards the normaisation of British Miitary Spending?, The Henry Jackson Society (2018), avaiabe at: pubications/after-the-nato-summit-towards-the-normaisation- of-british-miitary-spending/, ast visited: 29 January For a good discussion of the history behind this idea, see: Be, d., The Idea of Greater Britain: Empire and the Future of Word Order, (Princeton, new Jersey: Princeton university Press, 2007). 95 CanZuK adopted as officia Federa Party Poicy, CANZUK Internationa, 26 august 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 31 January gni figures see: gni, atas method (current us$), Word Bank, 2017, avaiabe at: ny.gnp.mktp.cd?end=2017&start=2017&view=bar, ast visited: 17 January 2019; for weath figures see: goba Weath databook 2018, Credit Suisse Research Institute (2018), p nationa and Regiona Poing Resuts apri 2018, CANZUK Internationa, apri 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 17 december For a good overview of uk ambitions and potentia in space, see: eefteriu, g., Britain s industry-ed space poicy mode has been a resounding success. But can it survive the fierce competition of the new space race?, Poicy Exchange, 30 May 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 3 February Britain and austraia enter into space agreement, Gov.uk, 3 october 2018, avaiabe at: britain-and-austraia-enter-into-space-agreement, ast visited: 3 February The decaration asserted: The ony true basis of enduring peace is the wiing cooperation of free peopes in a word in which, reieved of the menace of aggression, a may enjoy economic and socia security; it is our intention to work together, and with other free peopes, both in war and peace, to this end. 1941: The decaration of St. James Paace, United Nations, avaiabe at: history-united-nations-charter/1941-decaration-st-james-paace/index.htm, ast visited: 29 January For the un Charter, see: Charter of the united nations, United Nations, avaiabe at: ast visited: 29 January The future of uk dipomacy in europe, House of Commons: Foreign Affairs Committee (2018), avaiabe at: pariament-2017/britains-dipomatic-reationship-with-europe-17-19/, ast visited: 10 January

45 102 See, for exampe: Stotenberg, J., new Russian missie undermines european security, North Atantic Treaty Organisation, 29 november 2018, avaiabe at: campaign=nato%20update% &utm_content=nato%20update% cid_401daad4327cca f0 b a&utm_source=emai%20marketing%20software&utm_term=new%20russian%20missie%20undermines%20 european%20security%20-%20op-ed%20by%20nato%20secretary%20genera%20jens%20stotenberg, ast visited: 10 december The eadership of the RaF has been dominated by fighter piots and aeria combat rather than ground or nava support who have tended to dominate RaF thinking. 104 Freedom in the Word 2018, Freedom House, 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 30 december uk programme assistance to ukraine , Gov.uk, 26 September 2018, avaiabe at: news/uk-programme-assistance-to-ukraine ,ast visited: 15 January Syria Crisis Response Summary, Gov.uk, 26 october 2018, avaiabe at: upoads/system/upoads/attachment_data/fie/751999/uk_syria_crisis_response_summary _.pdf, ast visited: 15 January BBC annua Report and accounts 2017/18, BBC (2018), avaiabe at: reports/pdf/bbc_annuareport_ pdf, ast visited: 15 January 2019, p BBC S goba audience rises to 376m, BBC News, 22 June 2018, avaiabe at: atestnews/2018/bbc-goba-audience, ast visited: 10 January nibett, R., Written evidence for Beyond the state: The third dimension of the uk s Soft Power, House of Lords: Soft Power and the UK s Infuence Committee, 22 october 2013, avaiabe at: soft-power-uk-infuence/softpowerevvo2.pdf, ast visited: 27 november 2018, p Macdonad, a., Soft Power Superpowers: goba trends in cutura engagement and infuence, British Counci (2018), avaiabe at: goba_trends_in_soft_power_web.pdf, ast visited: 10 January 2019, p For more on the Chevening Schoarships, see: Chevening Schoars, Chevening, 2019, avaiabe at: ast visited: 31 January For more on the Marsha Schoarships, see: genera information, Marsha Schoarships, 2019, avaiabe at: ast visited: 31 January See: Highights, Goba Savery Index, 2018, avaiabe at: findings/highights/, ast visited: 31 January See: Riy, R., Modern savery: is current safeguarding training fit for purpose?, Paediatric FOAMed, January 2019, avaiabe at: safeguarding-training-unfit-for-purpose/, ast visited: 31 January ord Mance, quoted in Tugendhat, T., and Croft,., The Fog of aw, Poicy Exchange, 2013, p See, for exampe: Poyakova, a., Weapons of the Weak: Russia and ai-driven asymmetric Warfare, The Brooking Institution, 15 november 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 10 december See: grand Jury indicts Thirteen Russian individuas and Three Russian Companies for Scheme to interfere in the united States Poitica System, US Government: Department of Justice, 16 February 2018, avaiabe at: grand-jury-indicts-thirteen-russian-individuas-and-three-russian-companies-scheme-interfere, ast visited: 10 december 2018; grand Jury indicts 12 Russian inteigence officers for Hacking offences Reated to the 2016 eection, US Government: Department of Justice, 3 Juy 2018, avaiabe at: ast visited: 10 december Foreign infuence Transparency Bi Scheme 2018, Pariament of Austraia, 2018, avaiabe at: parinfo/search/dispay/dispay.w3p;query=id:%22egisation/bihome/r6018%22, ast visited: 10 december The Magnitsky amendment is named after Russian awyer Sergei Magnitsky who was imprisoned, tortured and kied in Persuasion and Power in the Modern Word, House of Lords: Seect Committee on Soft Power and the UK s Infuence (2014), avaiabe at: 150/150.pdf, ast visited: 28 January 2019, para See: Riordan, C., ora evidence in Beyond the state: The third dimension of the uk s Soft Power, House of Lords: Soft Power and the UK s Infuence Committee (2014), avaiabe at: ast visited: 28 January 2019, p.677. See aso: impact of internationa students in the uk, Migration Advisory Committee (2018), avaiabe at: upoads/attachment_ data/fie/739089/impact_int_students_report_pubished_v1.1.pdf, ast visited: 28 January 2019, p.4. See aso: immigration statistics, year ending March 2018: data tabes, Gov.uk, 24 May 2018, avaiabe at: government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-march-2018-data-tabes,ast visited: 28 January

46 about us DEMOCRACY FREEDOM HUMAN RIGHTS about the henry JaCKson society the henry Jackson society is a think-tank and poicy-shaping force that fights for the principes and aiances which keep societies free, working across borders and party ines to combat extremism, advance democracy and rea human rights, and make a stand in an increasingy uncertain word. about the Goba britain ProGraMMe the Goba britain Programme is a research programme within the Henry Jackson Society that aims to educate the pubic on the need for an open, confident and expansive British geostrategic poicy in the twenty-first century, drawing off the united Kingdom s unique strengths not ony as an advocate for iberaism and nationa democracy, but aso as a custodian of both the european and internationa orders. 44

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48 Tite: goba BRiTain: a TWenTy-FiRST CenTuRy ViSion By Bob Seey MP and James Rogers the henry Jackson society, 2019 The Henry Jackson Society Mibank Tower, Mibank ondon SW1P 4QP, uk DEMOCRACY FREEDOM HUMAN RIGHTS February 2019