NATIONAL INTERESTS AND STRATEGY: CORE COURSE 4 PAPER. LTC Peter Joel MS Laurel Galllvan Lt Co1 James Hunt Class of 96 Sermnar C Ambassador Clarke

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1 NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY NATIONAL WAR COLLEGE NATIONAL INTERESTS AND STRATEGY: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA CORE COURSE 4 PAPER LTC Peter Joe MS Laure Gavan Lt Co1 James Hunt Cass of 96 Sermnar C Ambassador Carke

2 Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No Pubic reporting burden for the coection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, incuding the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and competing and reviewing the coection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this coection of information, incuding suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arington VA Respondents shoud be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of aw, no person sha be subject to a penaty for faiing to compy with a coection of information if it does not dispay a currenty vaid OMB contro number. 1. REPORT DATE REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED to TITLE AND SUBTITLE Nationa Interests and Strategy: Sub-Saharan Africa 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Nationa War Coege,300 5th Avenue,Fort Lesey J. McNair,Washington,DC, PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR S ACRONYM(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for pubic reease; distribution unimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT see report 15. SUBJECT TERMS 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR S REPORT NUMBER(S) 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT a. REPORT uncassified b. ABSTRACT uncassified c. THIS PAGE uncassified 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 9 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18

3 ?he end of the Cod War and dssouton of the Soviet Uruon and Warsaw Pact cause the Umted States and its ahes to reevauate its nationa interests and strategy in and toward the counmes of sub-saharan Afnca deveops a strategy for the future This paper exammes the past US strategy toward Africa and Athough there are many ways to deveop a nationa strategy, this paper wi concentrate on Identifying US nationa mterests. reviewing the strategic context and trends m the region, and denhfymg the threats and opportunmes cntca to our nanona interest. We wi recommend US poicy objectives and the toos of statecraft most hkey to achieve those ObJectives and achieve our nationa interests Smce the retreat of European coomahsm from Afnca and the estabishment of over 40 countries m sub-saharan Africa. the peope of Afnca have suffered through fanune, pestience, disease, and countess wars with an appahng oss of hfe More important, Afnca was yet another battefied of the Cod War. Both the East and West vied for power and infuence across the African continent From US-Soviet competition for infuence III Ethiopia to internationa mtervenhon in Angoa, African nations served as the inteectua, cutura, and sometunes physica battegrpund of the Cod War As the batteground for the b-poar word, mcursons into Afnca by the outside word served the interests for their superpowers and their aies In the opnon of Ambassador Passage, Pohca advisor to CNC, USSOCOM, the Soviet Umon III parhcuar reversed socia, pohhca, and ecoponuc progress throughout Afnca as it aggressivey pursued its nationa objectives and mterests m Africa. The East was not aone, however. The West aso hteray sucked natura resources and raw materias from Afnca without much thought to heping to estabish ong term stabhty for Africa.

4 3 Smce the end of the Cod War. interest in Africa has dechned consderaby, eabmg nahons devastated by the Cod War to fend for themseves Today, standards of ivmg across the continent contmue to decine as a whoe and nternahona investment, necessary for econormc deveopment. 1s sparse But Afnca 1s a ow pnonty for the rest of the word and can t rey on any other nation or group of nations to rebuid the conment Afnca must do most of the rebuiding itsef, with very itte outside hep Even Nationa Secunty Adbsor Anthony Lake, an experienced Afncamst, speaks of African sef-hep as the ony way for sub-saharan Africa to progress mto the 20th Century Afro-ophnusm -- Athough Chng exampes of progress m south Africa, Lake warns agamst a of nahons sub-saharan Afi-ea face enormous obstaces to econormc, potca, and socia deveopment Past US naaona interest in Afnca focused on contamment of Soviet infuence and access to strategic raw materias necessary to support C-S industry In support of those mterests, the US met the Soviet chaenge throughout Africa, parhcuady m the horn of Africa, Angoa, and the Congo We activey pursued reations with countries such as Angoa, South Africa, and Botswana to ensure an adequate suppy of strategic raw matenas ike cobat, patinum, and chronuum Whie CS aid often heped countnes progress, that aid argey depended on Soviet moves and other wordwide priorihes resuhng H-I a shotgun soution to probems that needed ong-term panrung and support. With the retreat of the Sobet Umon and the avaiabiity of strategic raw mater& esewhere in the word, US interests m Afnca must change drasticay. In short, the United States no onger has any vita or senous nutary or secunty interests m Afnca Instead. I;S interest IS simpy Lo support African progress to essen the chances of a cnss m the continent that requires vast amounts of US and mternatona resources to remedy With that simpe nationa Interest, the

5 United States shoud use dipomacy and eadership to promote econonuc deveopment, internationa mvovement, and mtra-african cooperahon With de\ eopment, mvohement, and cooperation, the nations of sub-saharan Africa wi be abe to take the steps necessary to encourage aid from other countries, pnvate industry, zntematona ad orgamzahons, and nongovernment organzatons to sove the mynad of probems most of Afnca faces With that oberndng nahona Interest of prevenhng a cnss that requires massive word resources to rechfy, the Umted States can estabish specific objectives and poicy based on the current and future threats and opportunihes The remainder of this paper Identifies the US nahona strategy given our new nahona mterest. NATIOXAL NTEREST In view of higher prionty nahona interests m other parts of the word, the Uruted States must, for the next ten years, work to promote socia, econonuc, and pohhca progress ~II Afnca with the muumum possibe resources Agam, the goa 1s to avod a major, resource-depehng crisis m Afnca into the next century In order to achieve this goa, the Umted States must seek stabiity in the area It 1s m the Uruted States nahona interest to Rorhote an atmosphere conducive to economc investment and deveopment Encourage ethnic toerance to reduce the rkehood of ethruc/natonahst confict. Support rebudmg/enargement of pohtca, cutura, and physica infrastructure to support unproved standards of hvmg. I Hep nations combat sease and contro expoding popuations THREATS AND OPPORTUR-ITIES

6 In the next ten years, the continent of Africa wi not attarn the econonuc, or mrhtary preenunence that wi senousy threaten the secunty of the United States to the degree the emergrng econonuc powers of Asra, or the atent rmhtary powers of Europe mr be abe to. However, this does not mean the continent can be ignored As a rich base of natura resources and strategicay ocated aong two of the word s trade routes, Africa has the potenha to enhance the United States economic and mrhtary posihon There are severa threats to achrevng this potenha Ethmc nvanes have ead to war in Afnca which have destabihzed the economies of African states and disrupted the fow of natura resources out of the contment. Popuatron growth has increased to three percent annuay and exceeds the food produchon rncrease of one percent. This wr strain the economies of a sub-saharan African nations by the end of the century 21 countries can no onger support their popuatrons with exishng food production. Educahon eve 1s ow and educahon IS academicay instead of techrucay onented Thus wr sow economic growth as we as sow exports of natura resources The continent is environmentay unstabe There are cycica droughts and overgrazing, overcutivahon and deforestahon has rncreased poor so1 condmons on much of the COnhnent and increased desertrfication Rechficahon ~11 take resources away from deveoping export economres Isam 1s one the comment s two donunant rehgrons A the nahons of sub-saharan Afnca have sign&ant Isamic popdahons which are becoming more orthodox and ess African m then set of beiefs.

7 5 African nauons are the thnd through seventh major providers of 011 to the United States Any drsrupton rn the fow of or1 ~11 have severe repercussion m the US. The mfrastructure rn Afnca has detenorated smce the end of cooma rue The road system 1s poor and rairoads m many regions are no onger rn service due to crvr wars. Afixan natrons have run up huge debts. The G-7 has been forced to cut the mmunum annua payments for many African natrons Afnca has heath hazards whrch nnpen not ony us own popuanons, but those of the entn-e word AIDS has become an econonxc probem for many nations wordwrde as we as those m Afnca There are many other diseases endermc to the comment which pose a major word wade heath threat Cosure of the SLOCs (Cape of Good Hope, or the Horn of Africa) through terronsm or regiona confict woud have major affect on word markets Sub-Saharan Africa has a substantra votrng boc m the Uruted Nations whrch can affect US pohhca objectives. A potentra market of 600 m&on consumers IS damaged by the vast numbers of those consumers hvmg m poverty There 1s the potentia for fixton wrth NATO The US has very umted rnrhtary facrmes rn the region

8 6 U.S. OBJECTIVES As Tony Lake pointed out dunng his December 1954 Afnca mp, we are confronhng the reaity of shnnkrng budgets and resources and an honest skeptrcrsm about the return on our rnvestments m peacekeeping and deveopment In the best of rimes a that can be offered natrons III cnss 1s a wrndom of opportumty m which they can sort out their probems dunng a period of reative secunty -- that wmdow can ony stay open for so ong Every time the eaders of contending factrons do not serve that opportunny, do not act before the window coses, they dmumsh the mtematrona cornmumty s wi to offer support m future confhcts and crises U S objectives m Afnca mcude encouraging African governments and eaders to make democratrc and econonnc reforms, expand theu export markets and investment opportunmes, resove confrcts -- from whatever source -- peacefuy, and curb envnonmenta degradatron Key for the U S IS the stabiity of the region and a desire to prevent snuauons from deveoping that wr requu-e mternatona mterventron to meet recumng humamtanan needs Specrficay, U.S objechves are: Strengthening and expanding democratic msttutons, because such instrtutions protect and advance basic human nghts, and because eectrons provide a peacefu form of change. Encouragmg African governments to restructure therr econonues to ay the groundwork for ong-term growth, which m turn has the potentra of attractrng foreign investors and improving cooperatron among states m the region Encouraging African governments to mstrtute econormc pohces that promote sustamabe deveopment, and buid responsive governments that give cmzens a stake m the future Prornotmg the peacefu resoution of disputes, whether caused from ethnic or mba confhct or Inter-state tensions.

9 U.S. POLICY/STRATEGY: Given the resource and budgetary constramts on the U S for now and the foreseeabe future, US poicy objectives XI Africa wi need to be met pnmany through cooperative efforts with other major donors and appropnate mternanona msttutons and through the concerted and commuted efforts of the countries concerned African governments and eaders wr need to crack down on corruption and the rnefficiences inherent rn many of therr systems Athough economic assistance is dwmdhng, much can be done through dipomatic suasion and cooperative mternauona efforts Sma programs targeted at specific sectors, such as heath care, or the Peace Corps sma businesses program, can be particuary effective To further U S objectives, our poicy strategy shoud incude Funding for democratic eections and msttutons, mcudmg support for pnvate groups that momtor eections and hep buid democrahc traditions and mst.rtututons (e g. the Nationa Endowment for Democracy, the Afncan-Amencan Instrtutej Pressuring autocratic states by hating aid, suspending debt renegotiation, unposmg trade sanctions, denying visas, freezing assets of high officias with proven records of corruption or human nghts vioations Reducing the amount the poorest nations pay to service their debt and continue to work with other major donors toward the same end (e g G-7 cut by 2/3 the amount the poorest African nations must pay to service then debt). Workmg withm the Word Bank and other IFI s to provide assistance for those counmes prepared to make needed structura reforms and progress toward good governance

10 Supportmg, biateray and wthm the reevant mtemanona orgamzanons. regiona and mtraregona efforts and cooperation on Joint deveopment proects and programs. (e g the South African Enterpnse Deveopment Fund) Such support woud incude experts services and/or umted fundmg assistance Supportmg former coonia powers efforts to assist region. e g Joint programs, donor coordmaton. Encouraging U S busmess investment, through trade fms and promouon efforts Trauung for poke and customs offcas m fraud and crinuna mvestgation. CONCLUSIOY Sub-Saharan Africa as a whoe 1s a ow nationa priority for the Cmted States Future US pohcy must concentrate on avodmg major crises or situations whch require additiona amounts of US resources. The Umted States shoud remam mvoved, pohtcay and dipomaticay, XI the affau-s of Afnca to encourage econonuc and pohtca deveopment and stabhty of the region.

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