2018 Mid-Term Election Results. Katie Cullen and Charlie Shipp SC Partners Washington, DC November 7, 2018

Transcription

1 2018 Mid-Term Eection Resuts Katie Cuen and Charie Shipp SC Partners Washington, DC November 7, 2018

2 2018 Takeaways & Trends Democrats Seize House Democrats massed a huge ead among coege educated women in batteground districts Repubicans remained strong with men, reigious voters in batteground districts Repubicans Extend Senate Majority Unseated severa Democratic incumbents and appear to have fended off some formidabe chaenges Resuts in Arizona, Forida, Mississippi s specia eection and Montana are not fina

3 Senate Overview 54 Repubicans vs. 46 Democrats (based on projected outcomes) Key Races Red = Repubican Winner/Lead; Bue = Democrat Winner/Lead New Jersey Robert Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R) Forida Bi Neson (D) vs. Rick Scott (R) - (Lead) West Virginia Joe Manchin (D) vs. Patrick Morrisey (R) Tennessee Marsha Backburn (R) vs. Phi Bredesen (D) Mississippi Cindy Hyde Smith (R) vs. Mike Espy (D) Runoff Indiana Joe Donney (D) vs. Mike Braun (R) Wisconsin Tammy Badwin (D) vs. Leah Vukmir (R) Minnesota Tina Smith (D) vs. Karin Housey (R) Missouri Caire McCaski (D) vs. Josh Hawey (R) North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp (D) vs. Kevin Cramer (R) Texas Ted Cruz (R) vs. Beto O Rourke (D) Montana Jon Tester (D) vs. Matt Rosendae (R) Arizona Martha McSay (R) (Lead) vs. Kyrsten Sinema (D) Nevada Dean Heer (R) vs. Jacky Rosen (D)

4 2018 Senate Outook Favored the GOP "Bigy" Democrats faced ong odds 25 Democrat hed seats were in cyce Were abe to defend many in states that voted for Trump (MI, OH, PA, WI, WV), have an edge in MT, but ost in others (FL*, IN, MO) Democrats won NV, but missed pickup opportunities in AZ*, TX and TN. Repubicans had effective defense Dean Heer (NV) was the soe GOP Senator seeking reeection in a state Cinton won in Heer was a cean energy champion on the Senate Finance Committee. Arizona aso came into pay with Jeff Fake s retirement Fended off unexpectedy strong chaenges in TN and TX, and ikey AZ* *Repubican eads

5 Veteran Pos, Freshmen Senators Senator, Party, State Mitt Romney (R-UT) Kevin Cramer (R-ND) Martha McSay (R-AZ) (eads) Marsha Backburn (R-TN) Notes During his run for the Presidency, Romney mocked President Obama s unheathy obsession with green jobs. But now that those jobs are a reaity in Repubican states, many are changing their tune. Romney coud join them as homegrown Utah companies ike Vivint and Wasatch Wind grow and other deveopers seek opportunities in the state. Cramer campaigned strongy in favor of President Trump s energy poicy incuding the end of the war on coa. Cramer has been an ardent supporter of better incentives for carbon capture, utiization and storage technoogy for coa generation. In 2014, he joined 49 House members urging the House eadership to et the wind PTC expire. During her tenure in the House, McSay focused her efforts on energy poicy on shieding coa generating pants in Arizona from EPA reguation. This was framed as an effort to keep rura eectric prices ow. Backburn faced a renewabe energy deveoper in her eection bid, who obviousy woud have been a strong supporter of renewabes. She has a 0% 2017 score from the League of Conservation Voters and a 2% ifetime score from that organization. She ed opposition expanding the ITC to incude the orphans and signed anti-ptc etters.

6 Senate Freshmen Continued Senator, Party, Sate Mike Braun (R-IN) Josh Hawey (R-MO) Rick Scott (R-FL) Jacky Rosen (D-NV) Notes Braun pedged to end the war on coa. He supports President Trump s approach on trade poicy, but understands tariffs are causing businesses short-term pain. He is not expected to be as big a cean energy backer as Donney. Hawey attacked McCaski as a eft-wing environmentaist. Hawey campaigned on opposition to the Cean Power Pan. Missouri receives 80% of its eectricity from coa. As Governor, Scott signed a property tax exemption for residentia and commercia renewabe energy property. Scott s critics pointed to numerous campaign contributions from fossi fue interests. Rosen sponsored severa soar energy reated measures incuding the Soar VETS vocationa education proposa and a bi roing back the Trump Administration s tariffs on soar energy products.

7 Senate Leadership Majority Whip Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is term imited Leading Candidate: John Thune (R-SD) Sen. Cornyn to continue as Senior Counseor to Sen. McConne Repubican Conference Chairman Leading Candidate: John Barrasso (R-WY) Senate Repubican Conference Committee Chairman: Leading Candidate: Roy Bunt (R-MO) Conference Vice Chair Leading Candidates: Deb Fischer (R-NE), Joni Ernst (R-IA) NRSC Chairman Leading Candidate: Todd Young (R-IN), Mitt Romney (R-UT) Democratic Leadership appears unchanged Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Minority Leader; Patty Murray (D-WA) Assistant Minority Leader

8 Key Committees Finance Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) retiring Possibe Repacements: Chuck Grassey (R-IA), Mike Crapo (R-ID), Pat Roberts (R-KS), Mike Enzi (R-WY) Notabe Losses: Dean Heer (R-NV), Bi Neson (D-FL)*, Caire McCaski (D- MO) Energy & Natura Resources Maria Cantwe (D-WA) coud move to Commerce Ranking Member. Next most senior members incude Sanders (I-VT), Stabenow (D-MI) and Manchin (D-WV). Notabe Losses: Jeff Fake (R-AZ) retiring Commerce, Science & Transportation Possibe eadership changes if Thune takes eadership roe New Ranking Member is possibe if Bi Neson is confirmed to ose Notabe osses: Dean Heer (R-NV), Bi Neson (D-FL)* * Opponent is eading

9 Senate 2019 Agenda Nominations A arger majority can get nominees through confirmation more easiy, but executive branch nominees wi be subject to more intense House oversight. Infrastructure and Energy Poicy Buid off the bipartisan support for S (Murkowski-Cantwe) S or provisions from that bi coud be incorporated into an infrastructure bi Opportunity to push for revisions to BLM competitive easing rues Midde Cass Tax Cut President Trump indicated a wiingness to adjust other rates to cut taxes on the midde cass.

10 Looking Ahead Senate 2020 Notabe Repubican Incumbents in Cyce Susan Coins (ME) Joni Ernst (IA) Cory Gardner (CO) Thom Tiis (NC) Lamar Aexander (TN) Notabe Democratic Incumbents in Cyce Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Gary Peters (MI) Tina Smith (MN)

11 House of Representatives Eection Overview Current Breakdown Repubican: 235 Democrats: 193 Vacant: 7 New Congress (projected) Democrats: 229 Repubicans: 206

12 House Leadership Speaker Nancy Peosi (D-CA) is the eading candidate But some new members pedged not to support Peosi Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) wi seek to return to this roe Repubican Leader? Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has won support from President Trump recenty More conservative members ike Jim Jordan (R-OH) or Steve Scaise (R-LA) coud make a bid

13 House Democratic Energy Agenda Cimate Change House Democratic eaders do not want to undertake a big cimate & energy bi, ike Waxman-Markey, whie President Trump is in office. They understand this is poiticay perious and practicay useess. Infrastructure House Democratic eadership is eager to incude smaer scae green initiatives in their infrastructure agenda. These coud incude changes to energy poicy or adjustments to the tax code. In speeches and interviews ast evening, Leader Peosi mentioned infrastructure and prescription drug prices as areas where House Democrats coud work with the President.

14 Key Committees Ways & Means Expected Chairman: Richard Nea (D-MA) Notabe Losses: Sam Johnson (R-TX) [Ret.]; Dave Reichert (R-WA) [Ret.]; Pete Roskam (R-IL); Lynn Jenkins (R-KS) [Ret.]; Erik Pausen (R-MN); Jim Renacci (R-OH) [Ret.]; Caros Curbeo (R-FL); Mike Bishop (R-MI); Sander Levin (D-MI) [Ret.]; Joseph Crowey (D-NY) Energy & Commerce Expected Chairman: Frank Paone (D-NJ) Notabe Losses: Joe Barton (R-TX) [Ret.]; Marsha Backburn (R-TN) [Senate]; Leonard Lance (R-NJ); Kevin Cramer (R-ND) [Senate]; Ryan Costeo (R-PA); Natura Resources Expected Chairman: Rau Grijava (D-AZ) Notabe Losses: Steve Pearce (R-NM) [Ret.] Appropriations Expected Chairman: Nita Lowey (D-NY) Notabe Losses: Rodney Freinghuysen (R-NJ) [Ret.]; John Cuberson (R-TX); Kevin Yoder (R-KS); Thomas Rooney (R-FL) [Ret.]; David Young (R-IA); Scott Tayor (R- VA)

15 * Opponent eading 2018 Eection & Cean Energy Supporters in the House Severa Repubican Cean Energy Supporters Lost Prominent GOP Cimate Leaders: Caros Curbeo (R-FL), Mia Love (R-UT)*, Eric Pausen (R-MN), Barbara Comstock (R-VA) Wind Energy Supporters: David Young (R-IA), Rod Bum (R-IA), Kevin Yoder (R-KS), Mike Coffman (R-CO), Caudia Tenney (R- NY), Peter Roskam (R-IL) New Potentia Aies with Cean Energy Experience Mike Levin (D-CA) (ead) Lawyer for cean energy companies Sean Casten (D-IL) Energy efficiency entrepreneur Ben McAdams (D-UT) (ead) Spearheaded energy efficiency and cean transportation initiatives as Sat Lake County Mayor Other Democrats taking pro-cean energy stances

16 Governors Current Breakdown 33 Repubicans, 17 Democrats, 1 Independent Projected Breakdown 27 Repubicans, 23 Democrats Notabe Races Brian Kemp (R-GA) eads Stacy Abrams (D-GA) by 1.7% Michee Lujan Grisham (D-NM) recaims the New Mexico Governorship for Democrats

17 Energy Baot Initiatives Arizona: requiring 50% renewabe eectricity by 2030: faied Nevada: Quarantine the state s eectric monopoy: faied Nevada: requiring 50% renewabe eectricity by 2030: passed Washington: Imposing a $15 per ton price on carbon dioxide emissions: faied Coorado: to ban oi & gas driing in arge portions of the state: faied Caifornia: to repea a gas tax increase: faied

18 Transition Schedue November 13-16: Freshman Orientation November 14: House Repubican Leadership Eection November 15: House Repubican Conference Rues and Steering Committee November 19-23: Thanksgiving Recess November 27-30: House and Senate return, Chairs/Ranking Members steering committee meeting, possibe House Democratic Leadership eection 28th or 29th December 7: Continuing Resoution (CR) expires January 3: 116th Congress convenes January or February: Committee assignments finaized February: State of the Union