Voters in Black and White Working-Class Neighborhoods: Finding a Common Agenda

Transcription

1 May 2016 Voters in Black and White Working-Class Neighborhoods: Finding a Common Agenda Working America is widely known for its work in white, working-class communities, often in the suburbs and exurbs of swing states. In recent years, we have engaged working-class communities of color as well on issues and in elections. In a political environment in which proponents of ugly rhetoric and race baiting are encouraging division, we wanted to know whether there was an opportunity to bridge the interests of the diverse communities where we do our work around a common agenda. Over a one-week span in mid-april, we held 834 face-to-face conversations: 474 with mostly white, working-class people in the suburbs of Pittsburgh and 360 with mostly black, working-class people in Philadelphia. We asked about the issues that mattered to them, the impact of the economic downturn over the past seven to eight years on their lives, where they placed the blame for any economic damage they suffered and whom they were likely to support in the upcoming election. As in Working America s previous inquiry on the Donald Trump phenomenon and the impact of rightwing rhetoric, we focused on likely voters with household incomes below $75,000. More than half were women. And, as was true earlier in the year, we discovered a complex landscape, rife with confusion and contradictions. However, our conversations also revealed that, when it comes to economic issues, there is substantial consensus on three fronts: Working people are far more concerned about good jobs and a fair economy than they are about any other issues 1. There is a widely shared belief that politicians and government, followed by Wall Street and corporate interests, bear the brunt of the blame for the ills of the economy and the country 2. More than two-thirds agree that there is an ongoing effort by corporate-backed politicians to pit working people against one another across fault lines, and solid majorities of both black and white communities believe that working people should stick together to combat that negative influence instead of blaming each other 3. 1 Figure 1: Top Issues for Black and White Voters 2 Figure 3: Blame Doesn t Predict Voter Candidate Choice 3 Figure 5: Do Corporate-Backed Politicians Pit Workers Against Each Other? Voters Reactions By Issue

2 While there is no simple narrative, there are some significant insights that show where we can begin a conversation that bridges the interests of most working-class people, regardless of their race or which neighborhood they call home. It s still the economy Across all demographics, the economy remains by far the primary issue concerning working people, despite differences in geography and context. Conversely, immigration and terrorism were minor concerns. In response to this open-ended question, 1 percent of black communities and around 7 percent of white communities said those two issues were at the forefront of their minds. There were differences: black voters were far more concerned about education and public safety, and white voters more concerned with health care and government corruption. Even with these differences, there was great overlap in interest in the economy. Figure 1: Top Issues for Black and White Voters Jobs/Economy Health Care Other Education Social Security/Retirement Government Corruption Public Safety Taxes Immigration Terrorism Foreign Policy Gov't Spending/Deficit Women's Rights Transit/Infrastructure Wage Theft 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Black White All The recession walloped working-class constituents, especially middle-aged workers between 45 and 54 years old. Well over half of those with whom we spoke felt the impact of the recession up close, through personal experience and/or through family and friends. The distress was keenly felt by retirees as well as the employed, and even more acutely by the unemployed. Black voters of every age group felt the sting. But for white voters, the impact was especially strong among middleaged people, with a pronounced spike in the age bracket. Although our sample is small, this finding resonated with an analysis by Nobel Laureate economist Angus Deaton and Anne Case showing declining health and fortunes among 45- to 54-year-old white voters who < Figure 2: White Voters Ages 45 to 54 Felt Effects of the Recession Acutely 0% 20% 40% 60% Black White 63% 2

3 didn t attend college a fact that stands in contrast to other racial and ethnic groups. Economic stress and poor health were among the factors cited as causes by Deaton and Case. This may also help illuminate why health care remained the second-most-important issue for white constituents in this exploration, as opposed to education for black constituents. Working-class people blame their pain on dysfunctional government and politicians with additional blame for Wall Street and corporate interests. Asking people whom or what they hold accountable for their adverse circumstances added complexity and nuance. Overwhelming majorities in both communities are angry and frustrated over the failure of government and politicians to address their needs. A significant number also hold Wall Street and corporate interests responsible for the loss of jobs and declining opportunities to achieve middle-class status. A large number of people responded to the question by saying the government the whole lot of them or there are too many to pick just one. People in both communities had special scorn for Congress. But differences lurked in the details. Close to 8 percent of whites blamed President Obama, while less than 1 percent of blacks did and 8 percent of whites blamed former President George W. Bush, along with 24 percent of blacks. Terrorists and Figure 3: Blame Doesn't Predict Voter Candidate Choice Government/Politicians 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% immigrants were at the bottom of the list of issues (even lower than bad luck), barely registering a blip. Other Wall Street/Corporations President Bush US Congress President Obama Lazy People/Society Local Political Leaders Bad Luck Terrorists Immigrants Democratic Candidate Other Republican Candidate Trump Undecided (no leaning) 3

4 Nearly a quarter of white voters remain undecided. Both black voters and white voters showed levels of candidate support in Figure 4: Voter Candidate Choices line with party registration. Among this group, 88 percent of black voters were registered Democrats and 86 percent Black 86% 3% 12% supported a Democratic candidate. Fiftytwo White 25% 51% 23% percent of white voters were registered Republicans, and 51 percent supported a Republican candidate. Twice the rate of white voters as black All 51% 31% 19% voters were undecided, an indication that their votes were available for the Democratic nominee. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Democrat or leaning D Republican or leaning R Undecided There is potential for a common understanding of what has gone wrong, and for a shared solution. Two-thirds of working-class people with whom we spoke agree that there is an ongoing effort by corporate-backed politicians to pit working people against one another, and that working people should resist that pressure and hold them accountable. Figure 6: Majority of Voters Believe in a Common Agenda 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Black 85% 8% 7% White 59% 7% 34% Positive reaction Negative reaction No reaction While black voters and those identifying as Democrats were more likely to hold these views, they were also held by 59 percent of white voters, 54 percent of Republicans and 55 percent of voters unaffiliated with either party. 4

5 Those who considered immigration and terrorism their priority issues were least receptive to this conversation (and also more likely to support Trump), but their actual numbers within the pool were very small. Stories from the Field: Why It s Still the Economy Lost Homes Stem from Lost Jobs In the Mount Airy section of Philadelphia, a 27-year-old black woman lost her job during the recession, and then lost her home because she could not afford to pay the utilities. The house was paid for, but other bills continued to pile up. She was forced to move back in with her mother. Unemployment compensation was her only income, and it eventually ran out. She does not know whom to blame for the recession but thinks it s unfair for anyone to blame President Obama. She supports Hillary Clinton because she believes Clinton can get the job done. In Pittsburgh s Bethel Park neighborhood, a 66-year-old white woman was forced to retire just before the stock market crashed. Her property taxes became unmanageable, and she was forced to sell her home. She lost nearly all of her money and had to move in with her daughter. She believes that the combination of the crash and high property taxes was unfair to seniors and retirees. Working People Are Still Struggling to Find Good Jobs In Philadelphia s Wynnefield neighborhood, a 27-year-old black man has been unemployed for seven months. He found temporary work, but became unemployed a second time. As a result, he also built up a lot of debt. He blames the government as a whole: Congress doesn t do enough, and politicians pay too much attention to wars and other countries. He believes that it doesn t matter what people do because politicians are going to do what they want. He says the system is set up against our best interests. In Monaca, a borough northwest of Pittsburgh, a white food service worker said he was excited to start his new job at a steel mill. He felt fortunate, especially considering how difficult the current economy is. He thinks employers are turning more and more to temporary jobs and independent contracting so working people don't have job security or even the chance to organize. He saw fracking as another temporary industry that exploits labor and the environment and agreed that workers are pitted against one another as a distracting spectacle. 5

6 It s Hard to Make Ends Meet In the Germantown section of Philadelphia, a 63-year-old black man was concerned about rising costs. He lives on SSI disability, and it s difficult for him to manage. His income did not increase during the recession, but the cost of food did, and it continues to increase. He is also concerned about public safety. He does not feel safe, even going to his mailbox at night; he therefore tries to always be indoors by sunset. He blames all politicians for the recession because they only look out for their own interests, not the people s, he said. He is leaning toward Hillary Clinton because he likes her husband, Bill. In Monroeville, a suburb just east of Pittsburgh, a white woman in her mid-70s said her health expenses make it difficult to afford other basic needs. She is an undecided Republican, but she strongly dislikes both Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz. She does not feel represented by any of the current candidates, and feels the government is not working for people like herself. She reacted positively to the idea that we need a grassroots movement stemming from the working class to see any political change. Party Loyalty Aside, Working People Spoke Up Against Corporate Interests and Wall Street In Philadelphia s Mount Airy neighborhood, a 70-year-old black woman identified her most important issue as jobs and the economy. She works as a lab technician, and her family was personally affected by the recession. Her son was unemployed for a significant time, and he had to move back in with her and her husband. She said that too many of our young men are faced with this situation. The national unemployment rate is now 5 percent, but unemployment for black males is above 14 percent. To her mind, Congress is to blame for the recession because they sold out to Wall Street and big corporations. She expressed the need for an economic boycott on the corporations that are taking advantage of our political system and ultimately hurting our communities. She believes in the need for us all to stand together because Wall Street and the corporations are unified. She plans to vote for Hillary Clinton because she believes Clinton is the best candidate of those running. She also mentioned that previously, she would have never voted for Clinton. When looking at the candidates, she believes that Clinton is clearly the best option due to her previous experience. In Washington, Pennsylvania, a suburb just southwest of Pittsburgh, a white, small-business owner said the recession definitely affected him. He owns a dry-cleaning business; when the crash hit, he lost most of his customers. He believed customers considered dry cleaning to be a luxury that people do without if they have to. His main issue was taxes, particularly on small businesses. He was largely undecided in terms of who he was going to vote for. But if he had to vote right now, it would be Gov. John Kasich because of his experience, he said. Even though he s a Republican who wants lower taxes, his comments were evidence of western Pennsylvania s strong labor history. When asked about big corporations pitting workers against one another, he said: We have seen corporations and politicians pit workers against each other for ages. Look at Andrew Carnegie. 6