SOCI CIETIES. The enlarged European Union: fifteen + ten = 455. Alain Monnier*

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1 ONTNTS U L L T I N M N S U L I N F O R M T I O N L I N S T I T U T N T I O N L É T U S É M O G R P H I Q U S POPU When its ten new members join in May, the uropean Union will have a population of million people. It will then have the third-largest population in the world, far behind hina s. billion and India s. billion inhabitants, but also well ahead of the United States (9 million), Russia ( million) and Japan (8 million). Since being founded as the uropean conomic ommunity () in 97, a series of enlargements over the years have turned the uropean Union (U) into a demographic powerhouse (figure ). The addition of ten new members will increase the population by close to 7 million people, but the new entity will have a lower rate of population growth. The growing impact of small countries The million inhabitants of the urope of Twenty-five are distributed between countries of varying population size: four have either side of million people, but nine have under five million. The ten new members will significantly increase the number of small-population countries. The urope of Fifteen had only one really small country (Luxembourg); now, it will have six countries with populations below. million (table ). The six most populous countries (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Poland) make up ION SOI ITIS The enlarged uropean Union: fifteen + ten = * Institut national d études démographiques IN lain Monnier* Portugal urope of Six + three = Nine + one = Ten + two = Twelve Reunification of Germany + three = Fifteen + ten = Twenty-five Spain United Kingdom 7% of the population of the enlarged uropean Union, the remaining % being divided between nineteen countries, eight of which have under % each. The demographic load of the big founder countries has decreased steadily with each enlargement: the FRG, France and Italy together made up nearly % of the ommunity population in 97, but account for just % today. In 97, France had just over a quarter of the population of the Six; in, it will have no more than % of the Union s population, despite the % ditorial The enlarged uropean Union: fifteen + ten = The growing impact of small countries - p. The demographic construction of the uropean Union: from Six to Twenty-five - p. 6 Old and new members: two different demographic regimes - p. 8 The demographic implications of enlargement - p. 8 Population pyramids of the uropean Union and its Member States in - pp. to Ireland France Netherlands elgium Luxembourg enmark Germany Italy ustria Sweden zech Republic Slovenia Malta Poland Slovakia Hungary Finland stonia Latvia Litthuania Greece No.98 FRU RY yprus

2 The enlarged uropean Union: fifteen + ten = urope of at January ge 9 9 IN 7 Population pyramids of the Member States at January * * at January for Ireland; at January for Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom; at January for Greece. Overprint: pyramid of the urope of. Les The nouveaux new members membres au at er January janvier ge 9 9 IN ge Total population: 8. million 9 9 Germany IN Military losses of the 99-9 war. Fertility rise due to pronatalist measures. Very low fertility. urope of at January ge 9 9 IN aption common to all pyramids For ease of comparison, the x-axis is graduated in %s of total population, so that the pyramid areas are constant regardless of total population size (Germany: 8 million; Luxembourg:. million). Key to pyramids: irths deficit due to the 9-98 war (depleted groups) epleted groups reach reproductive age irths deficit due to the 99-9 war aby boom Recent fertility decline ustria ge Total population: 8. million 9 9 IN Military losses of the 99-9 war. irths deficit due to the 9s slump. pplication of anti-abortion law; post-nschluss implementation of German pronatalist policy. Very low fertility. elgium ge Total population:. million 9 9 IN elgium s population pyramid is closest to that of the urope of. Population & Societies, 98, February IN

3 The enlarged uropean Union: fifteen + ten = enmark ge Total population:. million 9 9 IN Low fertility of the 9s. Fertility rise from the start of the 9s. epleted 9s cohorts reach reproductive age. Large 9s cohorts reach reproductive age. Fertility surge. ge Spain 9 Total population:. million IN ivil war. High emigration. nd of high fertility. Very low fertility Greece Total population:.6 million ge IN nd of high fertility. Very low fertility. ge Ireland 9 Total population:.9 million IN High emigration. nd of high fertility. 9s cohorts reach reproductive age ge Total population:. million 9 9 Finland IN atch-up of postponed births from the war (99-9). Fertility surge Italy Total population: 7. million ge IN atch-up of postponed births from World War II. Very low fertility Total population: 9.6 million France ge IN Relatively stable fertility maintained. 9 9 Luxembourg Total population:. million ge IN aby boom cohorts reach reproductive age. 9 IN Population & Societies, 98, February

4 The enlarged uropean Union: fifteen + ten = 9 Total population: 6. million Netherlands ge IN atch-up of postponed births from World War II. Relatively stable fertility maintained. ge Portugal Total population:. million 9 9 IN High emigration. nd of high fertility. 9 Population pyramids of the new Member States at January * * at January for yprus. Overprint: pyramid for the urope of. aption common to all pyramids For ease of comparison, the x-axis is graduated in %s of total population, so that the pyramid areas are constant regardless of total population size (Germany: 8 million; Luxembourg:. million). Key to pyramids: irths deficit due to the 9-98 war (depleted groups) epleted groups reach reproductive age irths deficit due to the 99-9 war aby boom Recent fertility decline ge IN atch-up of postponed births United Kingdom Total population: 9. million from World War II. aby boom cohorts reach reproductive age. ge yprus 9 IN Total population.7 million High emigration. nd of high fertility. Fertility surge. ge Sweden Total population: 8.9 million 9 9 IN Low fertility of the 9s. Fertility rise of the 9s. 9s cohorts reach reproductive age. Fertility surge. 9 stonia Total population. million ge IN Military losses of the 99-9 war. World War II depleted groups reach reproductive age. Fertility surge due to pronatalist measures. Fertility decline of the 9s. 9 Population & Societies, 98, February IN

5 The enlarged uropean Union: fifteen + ten = Hungary ge Total population:. million 9 9 IN Military losses of the 99-9 war. nd of high fertility. Liberalization of abortion. Fertility surge due to pronatalist measures. Fertility decline of the 9s. ge Latvia Total population:. million 9 9 IN Military losses of the 99-9 war. World War II depleted groups reach reproductive age. Fertility surge due to pronatalist measures. Fertility decline of the 9s. ge Lithuania Total population:. million 9 9 IN Military losses of the 99-9 war. World War II depleted cohorts reach reproductive age. Fertility surge due to pronatalist measures. Fertility decline of the 9s. Malta ge Total population:. million 9 9 IN High emigration. World War II depleted groups reach reproductive age. 9 ge Poland Total population: 8. million 9 IN ivil and military losses of the 99-9 war. nd of high fertility. World War II depleted groups reach reproductive age. Fertility surge due to pronatalist measures. Fertility decline of the 9s. 9 zech Republic Total population:. million ge IN Military losses of the 99-9 war. Liberalization of abortion. Restrictions on abortion. Fertility surge due to pronatalist measures. Fertility decline of the 9s. ge Total population:. million 9 Slovakia IN Military losses of the 99-9 war. High male and female emigration. Liberalization of abortion. Restrictions on abortion. Fertility surge due to pronatalist measures. Fertility decline of the 9s. 9 IN Military losses of the 99-9 war. nd of high fertility. Post-war cohorts reach reproductive age. Fertility decline of the 9s. 9 9 ge Slovenia Total population:. million 9 Population & Societies, 98, February IN

6 6 The enlarged uropean Union: fifteen + ten = increase in its own population; Germany, as the FRG, had one-third of the population of the Six in 97, but as currently constituted will have only 8% of that of the Twenty-five. The map of the uropean Union will in future mirror that of continental urope a continent fragmented by history where big countries are the exception. The demographic construction of the uropean Union: from Six to Twenty-five When the Treaty of Rome was signed in 97, the comprised 67 million people, so its population will have increased by 88 million people ( minus 67), an almost threefold rise in 7 years. Most of this growth stems from waves of expansion to nineteen countries: the United Kingdom, Ireland and enmark in 97; Greece in 98; Spain and Portugal in 986; ustria, Finland and Sweden in 99; and finally, yprus, stonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the zech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia in (figure ). The advent of ten new members bringing with them 7 million inhabitants in, is the biggest enlargement in absolute numbers; but in relative terms, it increases the population of the urope of Fifteen by only % significantly less than the expansion from Six to Nine in 97, when the extra 6 million people represented a % increase. The s then the U s aggregate population growth resulting from successive enlargements (and German reunification in 99, which raised the population of Germany from 6 to million) will stand at million in, after the ten new members enter. ut each Member State s population is not immutable: it increases or may decrease. So, as well as the political component of population growth (accession of new members), there is an internal population growth component representing million people in the aggregate. Latterly, annual population growth in the urope of Fifteen has averaged one and a half million, compared with the nearly two million in the urope of Six alone in the early 9s. This population growth comes from natural increase (balance of births and deaths) and the balance of migration (difference between arrivals and departures on ommunity territory). The aggregate natural increase for all countries stands at million since their accession to the ommunity, 8 million of which has occurred in the six founder countries. The latter have contributed more to growth than the other countries for two reasons: they are the longest-standing Figure The demographic construction of urope: from Six to Twenty-five Millions of population SIX NIN IN members; and the ongoing population boom during the early years of the. In the 6 years from 97 to 97, the population of the Six grew by million people more than in the next years, when it increased by only million. The balance of migration (or net migration) is the difference between total population growth ( million) and natural increase ( million): it therefore amounts to million. The migration component of population growth has therefore been less significant than natural increase or decrease over the period. ut things have changed in the past ten years, and migration has become the main determinant of growth in the uropean Union. Reunification of Germany TWLV TN TWNTY-FIV FIFTN Table - Population of the uropean Union countries at January Population (millions) % Germany France 9.9. United Kingdom 9.. Italy 7.. Spain. 9. Poland Netherlands 6..6 Greece.. Portugal.. elgium.. zech Republic.. Hungary.. Sweden 9.. ustria 8..8 enmark.. Slovakia.. Finland.. Ireland..9 Lithuania..7 Latvia.. Slovenia.. stonia.. yprus ().7. Luxembourg.. Malta.. urope of Fifteen Ten new members urope of Twenty-five.9. () xcluding the Turkish part. Note: countries are ranked by decreasing population size. The new members are in bold type. Sources: uropean Observatory on emography and urostat. Population et Societies, 98, February IN

7 The enlarged uropean Union: fifteen + ten = 7 Since the late 9s, net migration has topped million double the natural increase. Immigration has now become the driving force behind the Union s population growth, changing the very nature of the Union s demographic regime. The trends of population change in the, then in the U, are shown in figure. In absolute numbers, the annual natural increase tops a million up to 9, peaking at. million in 96. Since the mid-9s, the uropean Union has increased from 9 to members, and from 7 to over million people, but natural increase is now significantly lower, under, a year apart from a surge around 9. onversely, the long-run decline in net migration from the late 9s to the mid-9s turned into a sharp Millions of population, urope of Reunification of. Germany,,,,, Figure - nnual increase in the population of the uropean Union (moving -year average) (millions of population) Natural increase Total increase Migratory growth IN -, Table - Population ( January ) and demographic indicators () of the uropean Union countries Population at January Total increase (per, population) Natural increase (per, population) emographic indicators (in ) Migratory growth (per, population) Proportion aged 6 and over (%) Germany ustria elgium enmark Spain Finland France Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal United Kingdom Sweden urope of yprus () stonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland zech Republic Slovakia Slovenia Ten new members urope of ) verage parity. () xcluding the Turkish part. Figures in italics are for (Greece: ). N: The results for groups of countries (, or ) are national rate averages weighted by total populations. Sources: uropean Observatory on emography and urostat. Total fertility rate () Life expectancy at birth IN Population & Societies, 98, February

8 8 The enlarged uropean Union: fifteen + ten = rise around 9, mainly due to events in astern urope. Signally, all the countries in the urope of Fifteen have now become immigration countries, when some (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Ireland) were until recently sending countries. The advent of the ten new members will curb population growth in the uropean Union, because they are experiencing negative natural increase with a surplus of more than half a million deaths over births since 99, and a net emigration rate. Old and new members: two different demographic regimes ll the countries that make up the urope of Fifteen share the same demographic regime, characterized by: a very low or negative rate of natural increase due to low fertility and population ageing; rising immigration, which has become the main component of growth in most countries; a high older population share due to long-run fertility decline and the past twenty years of mortality improvements at the older ages, increasing the number and share of old or very old people. The aggregate annual growth rate for the urope of Fifteen is per, population entering the s, with a balance of migration (arrivals less departures) of per, and natural increase (births less deaths) of per,. The main factor behind the low natural increase is low fertility in the urope of Fifteen, where average parity is.. The other is population ageing: the all-fifteen level of 6% of over-6s keeps total deaths high, even where there is mortality decline. The population will continue to age, especially from mortality decline at the older ages. Mortality improvements, initially from declining child mortality rates, are now mainly due to mortality gains among the older population. This new progress explains the high figures achieved for life expectancy at birth: 76 years for males, 8 years for females. The demographic regime of most new members of the uropean Union differs from this (table ). xcluding yprus and Malta, where sustained natural increase is accompanied by net immigration, the eight central uropean countries mainly display very low negative in five total growth. There is a significant births deficit, except in Slovakia which has a very small excess of births (. per, of population), with net emigration in three countries (Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) and slight net immigration in the rest. For these eight central uropean countries, the average rate of natural increase is. per, of population, and the average balance of migration is., producing a growth rate of. per,. This clearly reflects significantly lower fertility than in the rest of urope, with an average parity of. in a range from.9 in stonia to. in the zech Republic. Notwithstanding the recent birth rate decline in entral urope, leading to a more rapid relative ageing of the population, the older population s share of total population (.%) remains below that of the Fifteen current members of the Union, although it is rising. Finally, mortality remains higher than in western urope, with an average life expectancy at birth below years for males and equal to 78 for females. Overall, enlargement will produce a demographic slowdown in the uropean Union, as the growth rate falls from.7 per, to. per, population, and a slight rejuvenation as the share of people aged 6 and over slips back from 6.% to.7%. The demographic implications of enlargement The and later, the 7 enlargements are set to have major demographic implications both for the new members individually and the Union countries as a whole. Three particular issues warrant close monitoring in the years ahead. First is mortality trends in the new entral and astern uropean members, who all have a significant lag compared to the urope of Fifteen. Making up that lost ground would be a positive sign of improvements to people s health and general living conditions. Then, if economic and social conditions improve, and the future grows less uncertain than in the past ten years, will fertility in these currently very low fertility countries begin to rise again, stay unchanged, or fall still further? The southern uropean countries Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal experienced no fertility rise from their accession to the uropean Union. Migration, finally, is an all-union issue. Will the freedom extended to nationals from the new Member States to move and stay in any Union state cause significant population shifts towards the most prosperous Western countries, with Germany first in line? nd moving the uropean Union s borders eastwards will inevitably add an onerous duty to the new States responsible for policing the Union s easternmost borders: the altic States, Poland and Slovakia. POPULTION & SOITIS. The monthly newsletter of the Institut national d études démographiques ISSN irector of Publications: François Héran ditor-in-chief: Gilles Pison Translations oordinator: Linda Sergent esign and layout: Isabelle rianchon.l. er term. Ined:. boulevard avout - 79 Paris. edex. France Telephone: () () 6 6 Fax: () () e.mail: ined@ined.fr