Canada 150: The End of Progress?

Transcription

1 Canada 150: The End of Progress? By FRANK GRAVES Presentation to the Queen s Policy Review April 27,

2 1) The End of Progress? 2) The Meaning of Middle Class 3) Causes of Middle Class Decline 4) Values and Identity 5) Conclusions 2

3 Why A troubling values? syllogism? Proposition 1: IF a healthy society and a strong economy require a growing, optimistic middle class Proposition 2: AND IF the middle class is neither growing nor optimistic Implication: THEN societal health and economic progress will be in peril if these negative conditions persist Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement: A growing and optimistic middle class is an essential component of societal progress Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) DK/NR Q.Overall, which of the following choices do you believe best describes Canada s middle class? Shrinking (1-3) Pessimistic Growing 15 Staying the same (4) 12 Optimistic 16 (5-7) (1-3) Neither (4) (5-7) BASE (left): December 7-10, 2015 (n=1,811), MOE +/-2.3%, 19 times out of 20 BASE (right): Canadians; July 16-23, 2014 (n=2,620), MOE +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20 3

4 60 50 Medium-term financial outlook Q. Thinking ahead over the FIVE YEARS or so, do you think your personal financial situation will be better or worse than it is today? Worse (1-3) The Same (4) Better (5-7) BASE: Canadians; December 8-11, 2016, n=1,228, MOE +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20 4

5 Changes in quality of life over last 25 years Q. Thinking about your overall quality of life, would you say that you are better off, worse off, or about the same as the previous generation was25 years ago? We find very similar results when testing Standard of Living as we do with Quality of Life Worse off About the same Better off BASE: Canadians; December 8-11, 2016, n=2,433, MOE +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20 5

6 Generational outlook & social class» Fears are highest when turned to the future» The grey outlook on the present turns almost black as the public ponder the fate of future generations» It appears that we have at least temporarily reached the end of progress, the defining achievement of liberal capitalism Generational Outlook Thinking about your overall quality of life do you think the next generation will be better off, worse off, or about the same as you are 25 years from now? Worse off About the same Better off BASE (left): Canadians; December 8-11, 2016, n=2,433, MOE +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20 Self-Rated Social Class Would you describe you and your household as poor, working class, middle class, or upper class? BASE (right): Canadians; April 14-15, 2016, n=611, MOE +/-4.0%, 19 times out of US % who say MIDDLE CLASS Canada 46 6

7 International comparison Country Vietnam 91% China 88% Ethiopia 84% 2015 Country 2015 Kenya 43% South Korea 43% Mexico 41% Q. When children today grow up, will they be better off financially than their parents? Nigeria 84% India 74% Burkina Faso 71% Chile 67% Peru 65% Senegal 64% Brazil 61% Ghana 56% Argentina 55% Uganda 52% Indonesia 51% Israel 51% Pakistan 51% Philippines 51% Russia 48% Ukraine 48% South Africa 47% Turkey 40% Venezuela 36% Germany 34% Poland 34% Tanzania 33% Jordan 32% U.S.A. 32% Palestine 31% Spain 31% Malaysia 30% Canada 27% Australia 26% U.K. 25% Lebanon 24% Japan 18% Italy 15% France 14% % saying better off Source: Pew Research Center, Global Indicators Database (2015) Available online at: goo.gl/ipggza 7

8 Why Intergenerational values? mobility Q.Thinking about your current annual income and comparing that to what your FATHER earned at the same age as you are now, would you say that, usinginflation-adjusted dollars, you earn more, less, or about the same as your father? National Less (1-3) About the same (4) More (5-7) Note: Figures adjusted to exclude those who skipped the question. BASE: Canadians; December 7-10, 2015(n=1,956), MOE +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20 8

9 1) The End of Progress? 2) The Meaning of Middle Class 3) Causes of Middle Class Decline 4) Values and Identity 5) Conclusions 9

10 Meaning of middle class Q. How important are the following aspects to your definition of what it means to be middle class? Being able to retire with a secure income Having a secure job Being financially secure Knowing that you will be rewarded for hard work and skill Having an income that is around the middle levels of society Owning a house Having enough income to afford a few luxuries Knowing that your children will be better off financially than you Feeling a sense of a community with the average workers and citizens of society Having a better life than your parents Not important (1-2) Somewhat important (3-5) Important (6-7) BASE: Canadians; July 16-23, 2014 (n=2,620), MOE +/-1.9%, 19 times out of 20 10

11 Self-rated social class Q. Would you describe you and your household as poor, working class, middle class or upper class? National < <$40K $40-80K $80-120K $120K Vis. Min. Disability Poor Working class Middle class Upper Class 35 BASE: Canadians; June 30-July 7, 2015 (n=1,067), MOE +/-3.0%, 19 times out of

12 Personal health rating by social class Q. How would you rate your health? Poor 35 Working class Middle class 6 26 Upper class Poor (1-2) Fair (3) Good (4-5) BASE: Canadians; Dec. 15, 2016 Jan. 19, 2017, n=7,188, MOE +/-1.2%, 19 times out of 20 12

13 Life satisfaction by social class Q. How satisfied are you with your life as a whole right now? Poor Working class Middle class Upper class Dissatisfied (1-4) Neither (5-6) Satisfied (7-10) BASE: Canadians; Dec. 15, 2016 Jan. 19, 2017, n=7,188, MOE +/-1.2%, 19 times out of 20 13

14 Change in social class vs. 10 years ago Q. How would you have described you and your household ten years ago? Current social class: Poor Current social class: Working class Current social class: Middle class Current social class: Upper class years ago Poor Working Class Middle Class Upper Class BASE: Canadians; Dec. 15, 2016 Jan. 19, 2017, n=7,188, MOE +/-1.2%, 19 times out of 20 14

15 1) The End of Progress? 2) The Meaning of Middle Class 3) Causes of Middle Class Decline 4) Values and Identity 5) Conclusions 15

16 Why values? has middle class progress stalled?» Incentive systems are broken; rising inequality» Public sphere and taxation in decline» The corrosive economic impacts of the post-9/11 security ethic Closing of the Canadian (Western) mind?» Eroding workplaces» Innovation not generating the advances of past innovations 16

17 Causes of middle class stagnation/decline Q. How important are each of the following factors in causing the stagnation or decline of Canada s middle class? Excessive concentration of wealth at the top Wage and income stagnation Diminished role of government in providing universal social programs Sharp decline in corporate and individual tax rates Decreased unionization Rising success of other economies such as China and India DK/NR Not important (1-2) Somewhat important (3-5) Important (6-7) 17 BASE: Those who say middle class has declined/stagnated; July 16-23, 2014 (n=2,191), MOE +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20

18 Income inequality in Anglo-Saxon countries Source: Piketty, Thomas, and Arthur Goldhammer. Capital in the twenty-first century. Cambridge Massachusetts: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Print. 18

19 Consequences of inequality Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statements: If the current patterns of stagnation among all except those at the very top continue, I would not be surprised to see the emergenceof violent class conflicts Agree (5-7) Neither (4) Disagree (1-3) DK/NR 19 BASE: Canadians; July 8-14, 2016, n=1,003, MOE +/-3.1%, 19 times out of 20

20 Why Rethinking values? workplaces» Workplace values, morale, and quality of working life have all declined» Confidence in skills has declined as workplace training has declined» What works for older workers isn t working for younger workers» In the midst of this malaise, workers are hunkering down, which evades solutions 20

21 Confidence in job skills Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement: I am confident that I have the skills and knowledge necessary tomove easily in today s labour market Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) Note: Figures adjusted to exclude those who skipped the question. BASE: Canadians; December 8-11, 2016, n=1,209, MOE +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of

22 Best way to improve innovation Q.If you had to decide what was the best way for the Government of Canada to improve the overall level of innovation in the country, would it be... Increase access to fin. so sm. bus. can commercialize research Invest in the skills development of Canadians Increase access to post-secondary education Encourage young Cdns into fields like science/engineering Greater commercial use of discoveries from gov t/uni. research Tax incentives for companies to invest in R&D Invest in the research capacity of universities Simplify regulations to allow companies to be more innovative Encourage greater use of new technology in traditional sectors Increase funding for R&D at gov t research facilities Make it easier for skilled immigrants to get prof. certification 25 Promote Canada internationally as centre of innovation Promote Canada to attract more foreign investments Cut corporate taxes * Presented in series of paired choices. Figures represent how often each item was selected over the other items tested. BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-18, 2016, n=1,622, MOE +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of

23 1) The End of Progress? 2) The Meaning of Middle Class 3) Causes of Middle Class Decline 4) Values and Identity 5) Conclusions 23

24 Why values? (i)» Ultimate yardsticks of societal preference; normative indicators of right/wrong, good/bad Glacial, not mercurial» No monolithic consensus possible in increasingly pluralistic society» Long-term trends showing some profound declines in traditional values (traditional family values, respect for authority, minimal government, etc.) 24

25 Why values? (ii)» Identification with country increasingly salient This notion of identity and belonging is also linked back to an expectation that the country will reflect a sense of moral community» Importantly, identification with ethnic group has declined profoundly over the last 20 years, despite the large influx of immigrants in that period» Despite warnings about selling illusions and ethnic enclaves, it appears the reverse is true 25

26 Goals and values Q. If you were to direct the federal government as to which goals or values should be most important in shaping its direction, how importantwould you say each of the following goals or values should be? Integrity and ethics A healthy population Human rights Freedom A clean environment Security and safety Social equality Hard work Tolerance Prosperity & wealth Sharing of wealth Respect for authority Minimal gov. intrusions Traditional family values Mean (0-100) BASE: Canadians (half-sample); January 11-18, 2016 (n=1,283), MOE +/- 2.7%, 19 times out of

27 Tracking sense of belonging Q. How strong is your own personal sense of belonging to 80 % saying strong (6-7) Ethnic group City/Community Province Canada BASE: Canadians; January 11-18, 2016 (n=2,312), MOE +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20 27

28 Tracking sense of personal belonging Q. To which of these groups would you say you belong to first and foremost? North America Town The world Province Country BASE: Canadians; January 11-18, 2016, n=2,598, MOE +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20 28

29 1) The End of Progress? 2) The Meaning of Middle Class 3) Causes of Middle Class Decline 4) Values and Identity 5) Conclusions 29

30 Conclusions (i)» Collapse of middle class bargain defining problem of our age Trickle-down economics has been laid bare as a cruel hoax The public have given the government a strong mandate to pursue a bolder, more ambitious, more progressive federal government Public have largely abandoned the minimal government model 30

31 Conclusions (ii)» The public are looking for a new blueprint to restore shared prosperity» The End of Progress and Middle Class decline has mutated into a rise of authoritarianism.» Closing of the Canadian mind and growing search for order may preclude some of the essential solutions» Trump and Brexit driven by economic stagnation and class resentment These forces are at play in Canada Racism, nativism, xenophobia are by-products of deeper economic angst and resentment. 31

32 Conclusions (iii)» Workplaces are revealing disturbing declines in morale, skill confidence, and innovation Rising stress and declining work-family balance The problems are more acute for younger workers» Sharp decline for federal involvement in education/skills is a problem as Canadians are looking for a smarter, more agile, and valueadded economy» The dominant view that a smarter Canada would be a more successful Canada has eroded. 32

33 For more information: FRANK GRAVES EKOS Research Associates (613) ekos.com 33