Charting Indonesia s Economy, 1H 2017

Transcription

1 Charting Indonesia s Economy, 1H 2017 Designed to help executives interpret economic numbers and incorporate them into company s planning. Publication Date: January 3 rd, 2017 Next Issue: To be published on July 3 rd, 2017

2 HELPING EXECUTIVES AROUND THE WORLD INTERPRET ECONOMIC NUMBERS Argentina Australia Brazil Brunei Cambodia Canada Chile China Hong Kong India Indonesia Laos Malaysia Mexico Myanmar New Zealand Peru Philippines Russia Singapore South Africa South Korea Taiwan Thailand Turkey United Kingdom United States Vietnam

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROFILE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Structure Competitiveness Development Growth Stability Indonesia is by far the largest economy in ASEAN Indonesia is by far the most populous country in ASEAN and growing faster than SE Asia average Favorable demographic structure for Indonesia with relatively young population and high portion of working age group Indonesia s economy has recently shifted back to where it was before 1997 crisis, toward more Investment and less Export Indonesia is different from other major ASEAN economies in that it relies less of external demand, giving its protection from global economic crisis Given its archipelago nature, Indonesia s economy is more diversified with the capital Jakarta accounting for less than 17% of total GDP Economic Structure Part of the country s economic profile, economic structure section gives readers useful views to understand what matters for the Indonesian economy. 5

4 Indonesia is by far the largest economy in ASEAN 2015 GDP USD billion, Market Exchange Rate US China Japan Germany UK ASEAN* France India Italy Brazil* Canada Korea Russia Australia Spain 4,124 3,365 2,858 2,433 2,420 2,073 1,816 1,773 1,551 1,378 1,326 1,225 1,200 18,037 11,182 Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore Philippines Vietnam Myanmar 62.9 Cambodia* 17.8 Brunei 12.9 Laos* 12.6 Measuring the size of an economy Size of any economy is usually measured by calculating its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. To compare GDP internationally, there is a need to convert value in local currencies to one main currency, normally USD. There are two popular exchange rate to be used. The first one is the official exchange rate for that particular period. The second one is the so called Purchasing Power Parity exchange rate, which takes into account the difference in living expenses between countries. The first method is more popular in comparing the size of each economy. Size of Indonesia s economy Using the market exchange rate method, Indonesia s GDP is only around USD 859 billion in 2015, by far the largest economy in ASEAN. Mexico 1,144 Note: (*) IMF Estimate Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database October

5 Wages in Indonesia is one of the lowest in Asia and ASEAN Average monthly wages in Asia and the Pacific 2013 or latest available year (US$) Australia (2013) Singapore (2013) New Zealand (2013) Japan (2013) South Korea (2013) Hong Kong (2013) Malaysia (2013) China (2013) Samoa (2012) Mongolia (2012) Thailand (2013) India (2011/12) Philippines (2013) Vietnam (2013) Indonesia (2013) Cambodia (2012) Pakistan (2013) Nepal (2008) 4,642 3,694 3,419 3,320 2,841 1, International Wage Comparison Due to differences in definitions and coverage, comparing average wages across countries is not always straightforward. The chart presents information on wage levels for countries with broadly comparable data, compiled by International Labor Organization from comprehensive National Labor Force Surveys. Wages in Indonesia Average monthly wages in Indonesia in 2013 was around USD 183, slightly less than those in Vietnam. Wages in Indonesia is almost the lowest in ASEAN and in Asia. Source: ILO Global Wage Report 2014/15 Asia and the Pacific Supplement 14

6 Indonesia managed to maintain its momentum with 5% growth in 3Q16 Real GDP growth Year-on-year, 3Q16 India Philippines China Vietnam Indonesia New Zealand Malaysia Thailand South Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Australia United States Euro area Japan Singapore 1.1% 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% Indonesia s Real GDP growth Year-on-year, last 8 quarters 7.3% 7.1% 5.2% 6.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.4% 4.9% 5.0% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 4.3% 3.2% 2.6% 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 GDP growth in the latest quarter Real GDP growth in the latest quarter from major economies in the world sorted from highest to lowest. GDP growth for Indonesia s economy in 3Q16 Economic growth in Indonesia slowed down to 5.0% in 3Q16. However, this growth level is still higher than most emerging markets especially outside ASEAN. Source: The Economist, Statistics Indonesia; Charting Economy analysis 32

7 Indonesia s current account deficit is projected to continue while Capital inflow has increased Indonesia s Balance of Payment USD billion Projected Current Account balance 2017*, % of GDP Singapore 19.3% Thailand 7.7% Korea 5.9% Japan 3.3% Euro area 3.1% Hong Kong 2.9% China 1.6% Malaysia 1.5% Philippines 1.4% Capital flow Vietnam 0.1% India -2.0% LATAM -2.3% Current Account Indonesia -2.3% US -2.7% Australia -3.9% Brunei -4.1% Myanmar -8.1% Cambodia -9.4% 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 Timor-Leste -11.6% Laos -17.6% Note: (*) Forecasted by IMF in World Economic Outlook report, October 2016 Source: IMF, Bank Indonesia; Charting Economy analysis Balance of Payment Essentially, Balance of Payment should always equals zero. From there, we can form simple equation: Current Account + Capital flow = change in Reserve Assets. Current Account balance equals Trade balance plus Net Services. Current Account balance reflects the capability of a country to obtain foreign exchange through commercial means while Capital flow include net direct and indirect investment. Indonesia s Balance of Payment Traditionally, Indonesia relies on capital inflow to offset its current account deficit. Current account deficit is projected to continue while Capital inflow has increased significantly over the last 6 months. 43

8 Starting a business in Indonesia is harder than in Laos Starting a business rank Cost - Paid-in min. Procedure - Cost - Men Procedure - Time - Time - Men Women (% capital (% of Economy Rank DTF* Men (% of income Women Women (days) of income income per (number) per capita) (number) (days) per capita) capita) New Zealand Hong Kong SAR, China Singapore Australia Korea, Rep Taiwan, China Thailand Brunei Darussalam Japan Malaysia Vietnam China Timor-Leste Myanmar Indonesia India Lao PDR Philippines Cambodia Central African Republic Starting a Business This topic measures the paid-in minimum capital requirement, number of procedures, time and cost for a small- to medium-sized limited liability company to start up and formally operate. To make the data comparable across 190 economies, Doing Business uses a standardized business that is 100% domestically owned, has start-up capital equivalent to 10 times income per capita, engages in general industrial or commercial activities and employs between 10 and 50 people one month after the commencement of operations, all of whom are domestic nationals. The most recent round of data collection for the project was completed in June Starting a Business in Indonesia Starting a business in Indonesia is harder than in Laos. There are 11 procedures taking almost a month to complete. Note: (*) An economy s distance to frontier score is indicated on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents the worst performance and 100 the frontier Source: Doing Business

9 I d SUBSCRIPTION ORDER FORM Complete the steps below or do it online at like to order the following package(s) ASIAPAC Australia 1H2017 USD 99 China 1H2017 USD 99 Hong Kong 1H2017 USD 99 India 1H2017 USD 99 New Zealand 1H2017 USD 99 South Korea 1H2017 USD 99 Taiwan 1H2017 USD 99 AUS & NZ 1H2017 USD 139 China HK Taiwan 1H2017 USD 189 AMERICA Argentina 1H2017 USD 99 Brazil 1H2017 USD 99 Canada 1H2017 USD 99 Chile 1H2017 USD 99 Mexico 1H2017 USD 99 Peru 1H2017 USD 99 United States 1H2017 USD 99 LATAM5 1H2017* USD 319 ASEAN Brunei 1H2017 USD 99 Cambodia 1H2017 USD 99 Indonesia 1H2017 USD 99 Laos 1H2017 USD 99 Malaysia 1H2017 USD 99 Myanmar 1H2017 USD 99 Philippines 1H2017 USD 99 Singapore 1H2017 USD 99 Thailand 1H2017 USD 99 Vietnam 1H2017 USD 99 CLMB 1H2017** USD 239 ASEAN6 1H2017*** USD 379 OTHERS Russia 1H2017 USD 99 South Africa 1H2017 USD 99 Turkey 1H2017 USD 99 United Kingdom 1H2017 USD 99 BRIC 1H2017**** USD 249 Please invoice me using the details below We accept credit card / Paypal / bank transfer. More details on the payment will be provided in the invoice. Scan Save 20% When order 2 or more individual-country reports Name : Company : Address : Country : Signature : and return this form to distribution@chartingeconomy.com It s easier to fill this form online, go to Note: (*) Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru; (**) Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Brunei (***) Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines and Vietnam; (****) Brazil, Russia, India and China Charting Economy Helping Executives Interpret Economic Numbers Managed by Chart Maker Co., Ltd. (registered no ) 19 Moo 11, Lamlukka rd., Lamlukka district, Pathumthani, Thailand 12150