Inequality of opportunity in Asia and the Pacific

Transcription

1 Inequality of opportunity in Asia and the Pacific Expert Group meeting on Addressing inequalities and challenges to social inclusion through fiscal, wage and social protection policies Thérèse Björk Social Affairs Officer, Social Development Division United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) New York, June, 2018 BEIRUT, 9 10 MAY, 2018

2 Outline 1. Concept of inequality and its drivers 2. Ways to measure inequality of opportunity identify those left behind 3. How large are the gaps in basic opportunities 4. Policy options

3 Core Concepts of Inequality Outcomes Opportunities Horizontal Income Healthcare Women Wealth Education Decent Work Persons w dis. Ethnic min. Sanitation Migrants Clean Energy Young/old

4 Drivers of Inequality Outcomes Opportunities Horizontal Education Parents situation Discrimination Health Capital formation Globalization Trade/Investment Technology Education Income Wealth Residence Group belonging Stereotypes Social norms Cultural norms Political voice Laws Regulations

5 Impact of Inequality Inequalities and the three dimensions stifle economic growth and poverty reduction undermine social cohesion and stability negatively impact the environment

6 SDG Higher income growth of bottom 40% 10.2 Socioeconomicpolitical inclusion of all 10.3 Ensure equal opportunities & reduce inequalities of outcome 10.4 Adopt policies (fiscal/wage/ social protection) 10.5 Improve regulations & monitor financial mkt/inst Goal 10 based targets 10.6 Representation & voice of developing countries 10.7 Migration & mobility policies 10.A Special & differential treatment for LDCs 10.B ODA & financial flows for CSN 10. C Migrant remittances costs

7 Inequality and the 2030 Agenda Strengthening means of implementation and harnessing global partnerships (SDG 17) Poverty Employment Economic dev. (SDGs 1, 5, 8, 9) Environment Climate change Production & consumption (SDGs 6-7, 11-15) Food security Nutrition Health care Education (SDGs 2-5) Peace Governance Justice (SDG 16)

8 Inequality of opportunities and who are the furthest behind in Asia-Pacific

9 Measuring inequality of opportunities Two ways used by ESCAP D-Index Classification Tree

10 D-index The dissimilarity index, or D-index, measures how different groups fare in terms of accessing a certain opportunity. D = 1 σ 2pҧ i=1 n β i p i p ҧ

11 D-index Asia-Pacific INEQUALITY IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

12 Decomposition of D-index D-index in secondary education attainment D-index decomposition for secondary education Sex Residence Wealth Source: SDD elaboration based on DHS and MICS data, latest year

13 Decomposition of D-index D-index in access to clean fuels D-index decomposition for access to clean fuels Wealth Residence Education

14 Classification Tree The Classification Tree method uses an algorithm to estimates the access to an opportunity (e.g. secondary education) by partitioning the sample into different groups based on the circumstances chosen (e.g. gender, residence). Can also be used to identify those furthest behind INEQUALITY IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

15 Secondary education attainment rates Identifying the Furthest Behind Example of secondary education attainment in Mongolia, using the tree classification 100% 90% Top 60 Size: 61% Females Males Females in top 60 households Size: 32% 80% 70% 60% Population Size: 100% Males in top 60 households Size: 29% People in bottom 40 urban households Size 14% 50% 40% Females in bottom 40 rural households Size: 12% 30% Bottom 40 Size: 39% 20% Rural Size: 25% Males in bottom 40 rural households Size: 13% 10% Source: SDD elaboration based on DHS and MICS data, latest year

16 Stunting prevalence rate Identifying the Furthest Behind Example of stunting prevalence in Pakistan, using the tree classification 70% 60% Mother's Education at Primary level Size: 72% Bottom 40 Size: 40% Boys in Bottom 40 households whose mother has Primary education Size: 20% Girls in Bottom 40 households whose mother has Primary education Size: 20% 50% 40% Population Size 100% Top 60 Size: 32% Children in urban and Top 60 households whose mother has Primary education Size: 14% Children in rural and Top 60 households whose mother has Primary education Size: 19% 30% Mother's Education at Secondary level Children whose mother has Secondary education Size: 19% 20% Mother's Education at Secondary or Higher level Size: 28% Mother's Education at Higher level Se n Children whose mother has Higher education Size: 9% 10% Source: SDD elaboration based on DHS and MICS data, latest year

17 Kazakhstan Armenia Kyrgyzstan Philippines Mongolia Tajikistan Turkmenis Thailand Indonesia Viet Nam Vanuatu Pakistan Timor Leste Bangladesh Lao PDR India Afghanistan Bhutan Myanmar Cambodia Maldives Attainment rate (% ) Gap in Secondary Education Attainment Individuals aged 20 to 35 years of age, latest year Average attainment rate Group attainment rate (highest) Group attainment rate (lowest) Source: SDD elaboration based on DHS and MICS data, latest year

18 Gap in access to nutrition (stunting) Gaps between best of and worst off groups Gaps between best of and worst off groups Source: SDD elaboration based on DHS and MICS data, latest year

19 Access level (% ) Inequality in access to professional help at childbirth 100 Gaps between best of and worst off groups 80 Average access level Group access rate (highest) 60 Group access rate (lowest) Source: SDD elaboration based on DHS and MICS data, latest year

20 ACCESS TO OPPORTUNITIES (% OF POPULATION) Progress has been Uneven Access to electricity Access to prof. help during childbirth Access to clean fuels Access to secondary education -39 pp pp -32 pp pp -18 pp -29 pp -10 pp -6 pp CAMBODIA LAO PDR INDONESIA PAKISTAN Average access rate Access rate of the worst-off group

21 POLICY OPTIONS

22 Japan New Zealand Australia Russian Federation Mongolia Turkey Iran Kiribati Uzbekistan Georgia Republic of Korea Kyrgyzstan Latin America Azerbaijan Armenia Palau Asia-Pacific Solomon Islands Sri Lanka Viet Nam China Arab States Kazakhstan Africa Maldives Singapore Malaysia Thailand Papua New Guinea Fiji Timor-Leste Nepal Afghanistan India Bhutan Brunei Darussalam Philippines Samoa Bangladesh Lao PDR Cambodia Indonesia Myanmar Pakistan Per cent of GDP Invest more in social protection 30 Social protection and health expenditures as share of GDP, latest year EU-average

23 Lao PDR Bangladesh India Myanmar Nepal Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Bhutan Papua New Guinea Afghanistan Cambodia Viet Nam Pakistan Indonesia Georgia Vanuatu Azerbaijan Tonga Thailand Guam Mongolia Samoa World China Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Sri Lanka Armenia Fiji Iran, Islamic Rep. of Philippines Uzbekistan Turkey Kazakhstan Korea, Rep. of Maldives Turkmenistan Malaysia New Caledonia French Polynesia New Zealand Australia Japan Singapore Hong Kong, China Russian Federation Brunei Darussalam Macao, China Promote decent work Share of vulnerable employment in Asia and the Pacific, 2016 Total Male Female Source: ILO (2015) Trends conometric Models.

24 Macao, China New Zealand Japan Australia Korea, Rep. of Singapore Hong Kong, China Russian Federation Turkey Fiji Georgia Kazakhstan China Thailand Palau Malaysia Tuvalu Maldives Azerbaijan Solomon Islands Mongolia Kyrgyzstan Papua New Guinea Armenia Samoa Tajikistan Vietnam Tonga Vanuatu India Kiribati Lao PDR Philippines Sri Lanka Micronesia Cambodia Indonesia Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal Afghanistan Broaden the tax base, encourage progressive taxation Total tax revenues in Asia-Pacific as share of GDP, 2015 OECD average ESCAP average 0 High income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low income Total tax revenues (% of GDP) Taxes on income, profits, and capital gains (% of GDP) Source: International Center for Tax and Development (2016) and OECD (2013) revenue statistics. For all countries, the most recent data entries between 2011 and 2013 were reported. INEQUALITY IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

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26 Thank you!