Globalization GLOBALIZATION REGIONAL TABLES. Introduction. Key Trends. Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2009

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1 GLOBALIZATION 217 Globalization The People s Republic of China (PRC) has by far the biggest share of merchandise exports in the region and has replaced Japan as the top exporter. The largest part of Asia s external trade is within the region. Trade with Europe and North and Central America accounts for much smaller shares of both imports and exports. Much of intra-asian trade now consists of trade in parts and components. Migrant workers remittances have risen more than sixfold since the mid-1990s with most of them going to the five most populous countries and the Philippines. Net inflows of foreign direct investment have also increased significantly over the last decade but over 80% goes to just six countries, including the PRC and India. A number of economies experienced a fall in net inflows of foreign direct investment in REGIONAL TABLES Introduction The statistics in this theme illustrate the extent of globalization in the Asia and Pacific region. Globalization means the growing freedom to move goods and services across borders and for migrants to work abroad while remitting a part of their incomes to their families at home. Finally, globalization means fewer restrictions on capital flows between countries. The tables show the size and direction of merchandise trade, the current account balance, migrant workers remittances, official and private capital flows, international reserves, and external indebtedness. Key Trends The People s Republic of China becomes the region s top exporter. Figure 4.1a and Figure 4.1b show how the shares of merchandise exports from the Asia and Pacific region have changed from 1995 to It covers the 11 largest trading economies that together account for more than 90% of total exports in the region. The most striking feature is that by 2008, the PRC had replaced Japan as the top exporter. It is interesting to note that despite its size, India is still a minor exporter on a par with Thailand but well behind two much smaller-sized economies, Australia and Malaysia. India has however increased its share of the region s exports from 2.3% in 1995 to 3.7% in Figure 4.1a Percentage Distribution of Merchandise Exports, 1995 Malaysia 5.1 Australia 3.7 Thailand 3.9 Taipei,China 7.7 Singapore 8.1 Indonesia 3.1 Korea, Rep. of 8.6 Source: Derived from Table 4.8. India 2.3 Others 5.1 Japan 30.4 Hong Kong, China, 11.9 China, People's Rep. of 10.2 Figure 4.1b Percentage Distribution of Merchandise Exports, 2008 China, People's Rep. of 29.8 Japan 16.4 Korea, Rep. of 8.8 Source: Derived from Table 4.8. Others 6.8 Indonesia 2.9 Thailand 3.7 India 3.7 Australia 3.9 Malaysia 4.2 Taipei,China 5.3 Singapore 7.0 Hong Kong, China 7.6 Asia s trade is mainly within Asia. The destinations of merchandise exports are shown in Figure 4.2a for 14 major exporters. Other Asian economies are by far the biggest export market for all economies except Kazakhstan, with nearly 60% of its exports (mainly petroleum products) going to Europe. The origin of merchandise imports shows a similar pattern, i.e., for most major importers, other Asian economies are the dominant source (Figure 4.2b).

2 218 GLOBALIZATION Figure 4.2a Destination of Merchandise Exports, 2008 (percent) Australia China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Kazakhstan Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taipei,China Thailand Viet Nam Asia Europe North and Central America Source: Table Although the shares of Asia s direct trade with Europe and America are relatively low, Asia remains highly dependent on exports to the developed world. Much of the trade within Asia consists of trade in parts and components that are incorporated into finished goods destined for markets in Europe and America. As shown in Figure 4.3, the combined shares of parts and components in the exports of machinery and transport equipment and total exports to Asia of selected major exporters PRC; Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Japan; Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; and Thailand have increased from 1995 to Figure 4.3 Percentage Share of Selected Parts and Components in Total Exports of Selected Major Exporters in Asia, 1995 and 2007 Share in total exports of machinery and transport equipment to Asia Share in total exports to Asia Source: Derived from United Nations Commodity Trade Database (UNSD 2009). Figure 4.2b Origin of Merchandise Imports, 2008 (percent) Australia China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Kazakhstan Korea, Rep. of Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taipei,China Thailand Viet Nam Migrant workers remittances are a vital and growing source of income. Migrant workers remittances consist of earnings of persons who work abroad for only a few months in the year, transfers of capital when people change their country of residence, and money sent back to their home countries by migrants working abroad for several years at a time. The last of these is by far the largest component and for simplicity all three kinds of transfers are referred to here as migrant workers remittances. Migrant workers remittances form an important source of income for many Asian countries and Table 4.4 shows that they have grown more than sixfold since the mid-1990s. Figure 4.4 shows the dollar value of remittances for the 20 countries that currently receive over 95% of total remittances to the region. Philippines and the five most populous countries receive the bulk of these Source: Table Asia Europe North and Central America

3 GLOBALIZATION 219 Migrant workers remittances in India surged in 2008, partly because of a weakening Rupee and widening differentials between domestic and international interest rates. For the 20 economies in Figure 4.4, remittances rose sharply by 30.6% in 2007 before slowing down to 26.6% in Migrant workers remittances are highly dependent on economic conditions in Europe, North America, and the Middle-East. The current economic recession in many of these countries suggests that remittances to the Asia and Pacific region will level off or decline in the immediate future. The World Bank has forecast a global reduction in migrant workers remittances to all developing countries of 7.3% in 2009 compared with those in Figure 4.4 Migrant Workers Remittances, 2006, 2007, and 2008 (US$ billion) India China, People's Rep. of Philippines Most economies have sound balance of payments. The current account balance is the difference between a country s current receipts from abroad and its current payments to foreigners. Current receipts and payments come from exports and imports of goods and services, remittances by migrant workers, interest, and dividends. A positive current account balance is used to repay foreign debt or acquire foreign assets while a negative balance is financed by liquidating foreign assets or by borrowing from abroad. Figure 4.5 shows large positive current account balances as a percentage of GDP in Azerbaijan, Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore, and Uzbekistan. These economies were net capital exporters lending abroad more than they borrowed. Fiji Islands, Georgia, Maldives, and Federated States of Micronesia reported quite large deficits but the majority of countries do not face current account deficit to GDP ratios that are high enough to cause exchange rate depreciation, capital flight and, more generally, macroeconomic instability. REGIONAL TABLES Bangladesh Indonesia Pakistan Viet Nam Australia Sri Lanka Nepal Malaysia Korea, Rep. of Japan Thailand Tajikistan Azerbaijan Armenia Kyrgyz Republic New Zealand Georgia Source: Derived from Table 4.4. Figure 4.5 Current Account Balance as a Percentage of GDP, Average of Latest Three Years Brunei Darussalam Azerbaijan Singapore Uzbekistan Malaysia Hong Kong, China China, People's Rep. of Taipei,China Papua New Guinea Philippines Japan Thailand Lao PDR Indonesia Nepal Bangladesh Mongolia Korea, Rep. of Source: Derived from Table 4.3. India Kazakhstan Afghanistan Marshall Islands Cambodia Palau Tajikistan Australia Kiribati Pakistan Sri Lanka Armenia Vanuatu Bhutan Viet Nam New Zealand Tonga Kyrgyz Republic Samoa Solomon Islands Fiji Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Georgia Maldives

4 220 GLOBALIZATION Foreign direct investment is a boon for some. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is defined as a financial investment made abroad with the purpose of acquiring significant influence or outright control over a foreign enterprise. It may involve establishing a new company abroad or investing in an existing enterprise. FDI is important because besides creating jobs, it usually involves the transfer of technology and managerial skills from more developed to less developed economies. The 16 economies in Figure 4.6 typically account for well over 95% of FDI net inflows in the region and just six economies Australia; People s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; India; Japan; and Singapore accounted for over 80% of the total over the 3 years ( ). FDI is profit-motivated, being undertaken to earn returns that may not be available in the home country. FDI mainly benefits countries that are growing rapidly, seen as politically stable and that are, in many cases, already rich. Table 4.6 shows a very substantial increase in net inflows of FDI over the last decade. However, a number of economies in Figure 4.5 experienced a fall in net inflows of FDI in As a result, total FDI for the 16 economies in Figure 4.5 increased by 9.5%, compared with 51% in On the other hand, India recorded a particularly sharp rise. This country has traditionally been wary of encouraging FDI because of its potential to induce financial instability if the foreign funds are rapidly withdrawn. This policy is now changing and India was the fourth largest recipient of FDI in Figure 4.6 Net Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment, 2006, 2007, and 2008 (US$ billion) China, People's Rep. of Hong Kong, China Australia India Singapore Japan Kazakhstan Thailand Malaysia Taipei,China Indonesia Pakistan New Zealand Korea, Rep. of Philippines Georgia Source: Derived from Table Data Issues and Comparability International trade statistics are closely monitored by the World Trade Organization and other international agencies. Common definitions are used by all countries, and the larger Asian countries use standard forms and procedures for data processing. Most of the other international transactions in this section are taken from balance of payments statistics. Countries follow guidelines of the International Monetary Fund in compiling these statistics and meet regularly to discuss methodology, but many countries have difficulty in accurately recording nonofficial transactions such as workers remittances and private capital flows.

5 GLOBALIZATION 221 Table 4.1 Trade in goods balance (percent of GDP) Balance of Payments Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan REGIONAL TABLES China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam a Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste b Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. b GDP estimates before 2002 include the value added of activities of the United Nations, while estimates beginning 2002 exclude its value added. Sources: Country sources, ADB staff estimates using CEIC data.

6 222 GLOBALIZATION Balance of Payments Table 4.2 Trade in services balance (percent of GDP) Afghanistan a Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan b China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan c India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam d Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands e Micronesia, Fed. States of a Nauru Palau a Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste a, f Tonga Tuvalu a Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Includes income. b Includes other goods and income starting c Prior to 2000, services, income, and transfer receipts and payments were grouped as service transfer receipts and service transfer payments. d Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. e Includes other goods and income. f GDP estimates before 2002 include the value added of activities of the United Nations, while estimates beginning 2002 exclude its value added. Sources: International Financial Statistics Online (IMF 2009), country sources.

7 GLOBALIZATION 223 Table 4.3 Current account balance (percent of GDP) Balance of Payments Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan REGIONAL TABLES China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam a Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste b Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. b GDP estimates before 2002 include the value added of activities of the United Nations, while estimates beginning 2002 exclude its value added. Sources: Country sources, ADB staff estimates using CEIC data.

8 224 GLOBALIZATION Balance of Payments Table 4.4 Workers remittances and compensation of employees, receipts (US$ million) Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan... China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan... India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam a Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore... Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands... Micronesia, Fed. States of... Nauru Palau... Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste... Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. Sources: International Financial Statistics Online (IMF 2009); World Development Indicators Online (World Bank 2009); ADB staff estimates based on the Migration & Remittances website (go.worldbank.org/qowewd6ta0); for Taipei,China: economy sources.

9 GLOBALIZATION 225 Table 4.5 Workers' remittances and compensation of employees, receipts (percent of GDP) Balance of Payments Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan REGIONAL TABLES China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam a Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. Sources: International Financial Statistics Online (IMF 2009); World Development Indicators Online (World Bank 2009); ADB staff estimates based on the Migration & Remittances website (go.worldbank.org/qowewd6ta0); Taipei,China: economy sources.

10 226 GLOBALIZATION Balance of Payments Table 4.6 Foreign direct investment, net inflows (US$ million) Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam a Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. Sources: International Financial Statistics Online (IMF 2009); World Development Indicators Online (World Bank 2009); for Taipei,China: economy sources.

11 GLOBALIZATION 227 Table 4.7 Foreign direct investment, net inflows (percent of GDP) Balance of Payments Afghanistan 2.9 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan REGIONAL TABLES China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam a Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. Sources: International Financial Statistics Online (IMF 2009); World Development Indicators Online (World Bank 2009); for Taipei,China: economy sources.

12 228 GLOBALIZATION External Trade Table 4.8 Merchandise exports (US$ million) Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam a Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore b Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. b Prior to 2003, data exclude Indonesia. Sources: Country sources, International Financial Statistics CD-ROM (IMF 2009).

13 GLOBALIZATION 229 Table 4.9 Growth rates of merchandise exports a (percent) External Trade Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan REGIONAL TABLES China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam b Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore c Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Rates are based on US dollar values of exports. b Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. c Prior to 2003, data exclude Indonesia. Sources: Country sources, International Financial Statistics CD-ROM (IMF 2009).

14 230 GLOBALIZATION External Trade Table 4.10 Merchandise imports (US$ million) Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Pakistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Mongolia Taipei,China Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Brunei Darussalam a Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore b Thailand Viet Nam Cook Islands Fiji Islands Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. States of c Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa d Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Australia Japan New Zealand a Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but it is not classified as a developing member country. b Prior to 2003, data exclude Indonesia. c Starting 2000, compilation methodology shifted from fob to cif. d Starting 2000, compilation methodology shifted from cif to fob. Sources: Country sources, International Financial Statistics CD-ROM (IMF 2009).