New York County Lawyers Association Continuing Legal Education Institute 14 Vesey Street, New York, N.Y (212)

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1 New York County Lawyers Association Continuing Legal Education Institute 14 Vesey Street, New York, N.Y (212) Who is Who in the Global Economy And Why it Matters June 20, 2014; 6:00 PM-6:50 PM Location of Program: Yankee Stadium, 1 E 161st St, Bronx, NY NY MCLE Credit: 1 PP; Transitional and Non-transitional 1 NJ MCLE Credit: 1 General 1 CPE Credit: Specialized Knowledge AGENDA Moderator: Faculty: Bari Chase, Esq. NYCLA Continuing Legal Education Director Joseph Novello, CPA, MBA The Financial Training Organization 5:50 PM 6:00 PM Registration 6:00 PM 6:50 PM Presentation

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3 Joe Novello, CPA, MBA Joe began his career at Ernst & Young, Certified Public Accountants, in New York City and obtained his Certified Public Accounting (CPA) license in New York. Joe earned a Bachelor's degree from Brooklyn College and an MBA in Finance from New York University. He maintains his CPA license by completing continuing professional education in accounting, auditing, taxation and general business topics. Joe has experience with several domestic and foreign Fortune companies. His positions included the titles of Controller, CFO, Director of Planning and Analysis and Director of Sales Operations. He is a member of both the American Institute of CPAs and the New York State Society of CPAs. Joe also has experience training adults in finance at the University of Phoenix, ADT Security Systems and the NJ Institute of Continuing Legal Education.

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5 Who is Who in the Global Economy 1

6 Joseph Novello, CPA, MBA Finance4Lawyers.com

7 Disclaimer This document is protected by copyright and any reproduction or distribution of any kind is strictly prohibited. The information in this presentation is of an instructional nature and while it is believed to be correct, errors may occur. This presentation is not intended to give legal, financial, or tax advice. Please consult with your legal, financial, or tax professional for advice. 3

8 How Do You Measure an Economy? Most common measure is the Gross Domestic Product Called GDP. Per the Webster Dictionary The total value of the goods and services produced by the people of a nation during a year not including the value of income earned in foreign countries. Economist s definition can be complex and confusing. 4

9 How Do You Compare the GDP of One Country to Another? Nominal GDP Convert the country s foreign currency denominated GDP using the foreign exchange rate. Purchase Power Parity GDP (PPP GDP)- Convert the country s foreign currency denominated GDP using a measure of equal buying power. Why is there a difference: PPP gives a better view of the purchasing power of a country s currency within that economy. A country may keep its exchange rate artificially low in order to facilitate exports. 5

10 Nominal vs. PPP GDP Lets look at China: 2013 Nominal GDP = $8.9 trillion 2013 PPP GDP = $13.4 trillion A Difference of over 50% of Nominal GDP! All amounts in this presentation are per the CIA World Fact book, retrieved Some data is not totally consistent so I have either supplemented or estimated some amounts. 6

11 China The CIA World Fact book says: Because China's exchange rate is determined by fiat, rather than by market forces, the official exchange rate measure of GDP is not an accurate measure of China's output; GDP at the official exchange rate substantially understates the actual level of China's output vis-a-vis the rest of the world; in China's situation, GDP at purchasing power parity provides the best measure for comparing output across countries 7

12 Let s look at large numbers 1,000,000 = Million (Six zeros) 10,000,000 = Ten Million (Seven zeros) 100,000,000 = Hundered Million (Eight zeros) 1,000,000,000 = Billion = 1,000 million (Nine zeros) 10,000,000,000 = Ten Billion (Ten zeros) 100,000,000,000 = Hundered Billion (Eleven zeros) 1,000,000,000,000 = Trillion = 1,000 Billion (Twelve zeros) Note This is the US and British standard, also called Short Scale. In Large Scale countries, Billion = 12 zeros 8

13 The World Economy PPP GDP Total World PPP GDP is $87.2 Trillion, Population is 7.2 Billion. GDP and Population by Geographic Region. PPP GDP (in Trillions $) Population (in Millions) All Others, $19.8, 22.7% NAFTA, $20.1, 23.0% All Others, 1,964, 27.4% NAFTA, 474, 6.6% European Union, 507, 7.1% Next 11 (w/o Mexico), $7.8, 9.0% BRIC, $23.3, 26.7% European Union, $16.1, 18.5% Next 11 (w/o Mexico), 1,293, 18.0% BRIC, 2,937, 40.9% NAFTA: USA, Canada & Mexico European Union : 27 Countries, excludes Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and most of former Yugoslavia BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, China Next 11: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, Vietnam, (Mexico excluded to avoid double count) 9

14 GDP Darker= Bigger Economy Top 6 countries are a little over half of the world s economy 10

15 Population Darker= Larger Population A third of the world population is in China and India 11

16 Per Capita GDP Divides the GDP by the Population. Allows comparison of countries of dissimilar population sizes. Is a measure of the standard of living in the country. Is an average, so there are outliers in the population, both high and low. 12

17 Per Capita GDP World Per Capita GDP is $12,150 Standard of Living is Skewed to North America and Western Europe Per Capita PPP GDP $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $42,368 $31,828 $20,000 $10,000 $7,935 $6,070 $10,083 $12,150 $0 NAFTA European Union BRIC Next 11 (w/o Mexico) All Others World 13

18 Per Capita GDP 14

19 GDP Growth Rates GDP growth rates are higher in lower Per Capita groups PPP GDP Growth 6.0% 5.7% 4.0% 3.4% 2.4% 2.8% 2.0% 1.6% 0.0% 2.0% NAFTA 0.0% European Union BRIC Next 11 (w/o Mexico) All Others World 15

20 The World Economy Major Economic Groups G20 (The All Star Team ) NAFTA European Union BRIC Next 11 PIGS 16

21 G20 Group of 19 countries plus the European Union. Roughly defined as the largest economies in the world. Not exactly the 19 largest countries, it excludes Spain, Iran and Taiwan as measured by 2013 PPP GDP. Meet periodically (annually or semi-annually) to coordinate economic policy. Key Stats: PPP GDP $71.7 trillion, 82% of World Economy Population is 4.6 billion, 64% of World Population Per Capita PPP GDP is $15, GDP Growth Rate of 2.7% 17

22 G20 18

23 G20 Roster G20 GDP Growth China Indonesia India Turkey Saudi Arabia Argentina Korea, South Australia Brazil South Africa Japan Canada United States United Kingdom Russia Mexico Germany France Italy 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 19

24 G20 Roster GDP Population Per GDP Public (Trillion $) (Million) Capita Growth Debt 1United States $ $52, % 71.8% 2 China $13.4 1,356 $9, % 31.7% 3 India $5.0 1,236 $4, % 51.8% 4 Japan $ $37, % 226.1% 5 Germany $ $39, % 79.9% 6 Russia $ $18, % 7.9% 7 Brazil $ $12, % 59.2% 8United Kingdom $ $37, % 91.1% 9 France $ $35, % 93.8% 10 Mexico $ $15, % 37.7% 11 Italy $ $29, % 133.0% 12 Korea, South $ $33, % 35.8% 13 Canada $ $43, % 86.3% 14 Indonesia $ $5, % 24.2% 15 Turkey $ $15, % 36.6% 16 Australia $ $43, % 32.6% 17 Saudi Arabia $ $31, % 12.2% 18 Argentina $ $18, % 45.8% 19 South Africa $ $11, % 45.4% $65.2 4,336 $15, % 68.7% European Union $ $31, % 87.9% Without EU Double $71.7 4,571 $15, % 69.4% 20

25 NAFTA Acronym for North American Free Trade Agreement. Trading Block of consisting of the United Sates, Canada and Mexico. Created in The goal is to eliminate barriers of trade and investment between the three countries. On par with the European Union in level of GDP and Population, but much less diverse. Key Stats: PPP GDP $20.1 trillion, 23% of World Economy Population is 474 million, 7% of World Population Per Capita PPP GDP is $42, GDP Growth Rate of 1.6% 21

26 NAFTA 22

27 NAFTA Roster 2013 GDP Population Per GDP Public Trillion $ (Million) Capita Growth Debt United States $ $52, % 71.8% Mexico $ $15, % 37.7% Canada $ $43, % 86.3% NAFTA $ $42, % 69.8% 23

28 European Union (EU) General policy framework - The single market is all about bringing down barriers and simplifying existing rules to enable everyone in the EU - individuals, consumers and businesses - to make the most of the opportunities offered to them by having direct access to 27 countries and 480 million people. 1 Which countries are not in the EU: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, much of former Yugoslavia, Albania, Turkey Key Stats: PPP GDP $16.1 trillion, 19% of World Economy Population is 507 million, 7% of World Population Per Capita PPP GDP is $31, GDP Growth Rate of 0.0% 1. Retrieved

29 European Union 25

30 European Union Roster Germany United Kingdom France Italy Spain Poland Netherlands Belgium Sweden Austria Czech Republic Romania Greece Portugal Denmark Hungary Finland Ireland Slovakia Bulgaria Lithuania Slovenia Luxembourg Latvia Estonia Cyprus Malta EU GDP $0.000 $0.500 $1.000 $1.500 $2.000 $2.500 $3.000 $3.500 Germany France United Kingdom Italy Spain Poland Romania Netherlands Portugal Greece Czech Republic Belgium Hungary Sweden Austria Bulgaria Denmark Slovakia Finland Ireland Lithuania Latvia Slovenia Estonia Cyprus Luxembourg Malta EU Population Luxembourg Austria Netherlands Ireland Sweden Germany Denmark Belgium United Kingdom Finland France Spain Italy Malta Slovenia Czech Republic Slovakia Cyprus Greece Portugal Lithuania Estonia Poland Hungary Latvia Bulgaria Romania EU Per Capita $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 EU GDP Growth Latvia Lithuania Romania Estonia United Kingdom Poland Malta Sweden Slovakia Ireland Luxembourg Germany Bulgaria Austria France Hungary Denmark Belgium Finland Czech Republic Netherlands Spain Italy Portugal Slovenia Greece Cyprus 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 26

31 European Union Roster GDP Population Per GDP Public Trillion $ (Million) Capita Growth Debt 1 Germany $ $39, % 79.9% 2United Kingdom $ $37, % 91.1% 3 France $ $35, % 93.8% 4 Italy $ $29, % 133.0% 5 Spain $ $30, % 93.7% 6 Poland $ $21, % 48.2% 7 Netherlands $ $41, % 73.3% 8 Belgium $ $37, % 102.4% 9 Sweden $ $40, % 41.5% 10 Austria $ $42, % 75.7% 11 Greece $ $23, % 175.0% 12 Czech Republic $ $26, % 48.8% 13 Romania $ $13, % 36.7% 14 Portugal $ $22, % 127.8% 15 Denmark $ $37, % 47.0% 16 Hungary $ $19, % 79.8% 17 Finland $ $35, % 56.5% 18 Ireland $ $41, % 124.2% 19 Slovakia $ $24, % 55.5% 20 Bulgaria $ $14, % 18.4% 21 Lithuania $ $22, % 40.2% 22 Slovenia $ $27, % 58.8% 23 Luxembourg $ $77, % 22.9% 24 Latvia $ $19, % 39.2% 25 Estonia $ $22, % 6.0% 26 Cyprus $ $24, % 113.1% 27 Malta $ $27, % 73.4% Total $ $31, % 87.9% 27

32 BRIC The Countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Not a formal economic group. The term was coined by Jim O Neill, a Goldman Sachs analyst, to note the vast economic potential of the four emerging markets. 1 PPP GDP growth rate of 5.7%, twice the G20 s 2.7%. Key Stats: PPP GDP $23.0 trillion, 27% of World Economy Population is 2.9 billion, 41% of World Population Per Capita PPP GDP is $7,935; 35% below the world average of $12,150, almost 75% below the EU average of $31, GDP Growth Rate of 5.7% 1. The Sunday Times, retrieved 1/26/

33 BRIC 29

34 BRIC Roster 2013 GDP Population Per GDP Public (Trillion $) (Million) Capita Growth Debt Brazil $ $12, % 59.2% Russia $ $18, % 7.9% India $ ,236.3 $4, % 51.8% China $ ,355.7 $9, % 31.7% BRIC $ ,937.2 $7, % 36.2% 30

35 Comparison of GDP Growth PPP GDP Growth at 2013 Growth Rate EU NAFTA BRIC 31

36 Next 11 A follow-up to Goldman Sachs BRIC analysis Since we began writing on the BRICs, each country has grown more strongly than our initial projections We present the prospects for another set of developing countries, a group we call the N-11 the Next Eleven. 1 PPP GDP growth rate of 3.0% Key Stats: PPP GDP $9.7 trillion, 11% of World Economy Population is 1.4 billion, 20% of World Population Per Capita PPP GDP is $6,859, 44% below the world average of $ $ 12,150; 78% below the EU average of $31, Global Economics Paper No: 134, December 1, 2005; retrieved 1/26/

37 Next 11 33

38 Next 11 Roster Next 11 GDP Next 11 Population Mexico Korea, South Indonesia Turkey Iran Pakistan Egypt Nigeria Philippines Vietnam Bangladesh Indonesia Pakistan Nigeria Bangladesh Mexico Philippines Vietnam Egypt Turkey Iran Korea, South $0.000 $0.200 $0.400 $0.600 $0.800 $1.000 $1.200 $1.400 $1.600 $1.800 $ Korea, South Mexico Turkey Iran Egypt Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Pakistan Nigeria Bangladesh Next 11 Per Capita $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 Next 11 GDP Growth Philippines Nigeria Bangladesh Vietnam Indonesia Turkey Pakistan Korea, South Egypt Mexico Iran 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 34

39 Next 11 Roster 2013 GDP Population Per GDP Public (Trillion $) (Million) Capita Growth Debt 1 Mexico $ $15, % 37.7% 2Korea, South $ $33, % 35.8% 3 Indonesia $ $5, % 24.2% 4 Turkey $ $15, % 36.6% 5 Iran $ $12, % 18.7% 6 Egypt $ $6, % 92.2% 7 Pakistan $ $3, % 54.6% 8 Nigeria $ $2, % 19.3% 9 Philippines $ $4, % 50.2% 10 Vietnam $ $4, % 48.2% 11 Bangladesh $ $2, % 30.9% Total $ ,413.0 $6, % 37.5% 35

40 PIGS or PIIGS Pejorative term applied to certain EU countries with economic issues. The countries are: Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain 36

41 PIGS or PIIGS 37

42 PIIGS Debt and GDP Growth Worst Greece Italy Portugal EU Best 38

43 PIIGS Roster PIIGS GDP PIIGS Population Italy Italy Spain Spain Greece Portugal Portugal Greece Ireland Ireland $0.000 $0.200 $0.400 $0.600 $0.800 $1.000 $1.200 $1.400 $1.600 $1.800 $ PIIGS Per Capita PIIGS GDP Growth EU EU Ireland Ireland Spain Spain Italy Italy Greece Portugal Portugal Greece $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45, % 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 39

44 PIIGS Roster 2013 GDP Population Per GDP Public (Trillion $) (Million) Capita Growth Debt 1 Portugal $ $22, % 127.8% 2 Italy $ $29, % 133.0% 3 Ireland $ $41, % 124.2% 4 Greece $ $23, % 175.0% 5 Spain $ $30, % 93.7% Total $ $28, % 121.1% 40

45 G20 Public Debt USA Public Debt Pct of GDP is below several developed countries and the EU 41

46 Public Debt By Economic Group Developed countries carry more debt 42

47 Other Countries of Note GDP > $200 billion 43

48 Other Countries of Note 44

49 Other Countries of Note GDP > $200 billion 2013 GDP Population Per GDP Public (Trillion $) (Million) Capita Growth Debt Taiwan $ $39, % 38.9% Thailand $ $9, % 47.5% Colombia $ $11, % 39.6% Malaysia $ $17, % 54.6% Venezuela $ $13, % 34.2% Hong Kong $ $52, % 35.6% Switzerland $ $46, % 34.3% Ukraine $ $7, % 40.6% Singapore $ $62, % 113.6% Peru $ $11, % 14.9% Chile $ $19, % 13.9% Norway $ $55, % 30.1% Algeria $ $7, % 13.2% United Arab Emirates $ $29, % 41.7% Israel $ $34, % 67.1% Kazakhstan $ $14, % 15.6% 45

50 Other Countries of Note GDP > $200 billion Taiwan $39,6000 Per Capita Thailand 3.1% GDP Growth Colombia 4.2% GDP Growth Malaysia 4.7% GDP Growth Venezuela 1.6% GDP Growth, Ranked #1 as highest world oil reserves Hong Kong Free market economy highly dependent on international trade and finance, $52,700 Per Capita Switzerland $46,000 per capita income, not part of EU Ukraine After Russia, the most important economic component of the former Soviet Union Singapore $62,400 per Capita Peru 5.1% GDP Growth Chile High level of foreign trade, strong financial institutions Norway $55,400 Per Capita income Algeria #16 in world oil reserves United Arab Emirates $29,900 Per Capita Israel "Start up Nation" Iraq Economy back to over $200B Kazakhstan #11 in world oil reserves 46

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