Year. Fig.1 Population projections

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1 Outline of DNE21+ Model - Population, GDP Estimates- March 25, Population Statistics from United Nations 26 are used. (UN, World Population Prospects:The 26 Revision. (Figure 1) The global population is assumed to be 8.3 billion in 23 and 9.2 billion in Population (million people) Africa India OECD Pacific OECD Europe Fig.1 Population projections 2. GDP Actual figures were used to 25 (IEA, Energy Balances of OECD/Non-OECD Countries, 27. However this is based on WB, World Development Indicator) World Bank statistics for 27 estimate GDP growth rate until 23 for 9 regions (WB, Global Economic Prospects 27 Managing the Next Wave of Globalization, 26http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK= &piP K= &theSitePK=523679&menuPK= &searchMenuPK= &theSitePK=523679&entityID=112742_ &searchMenuPK= &theSitePK=523679). The distribution in the 9 regions is adjusted with respect to historical results in order to correspond with the World Bank statistics from 27 for GDP growth rates in 9 regions. Then United Nations estimates 26 are used to convert to an initial per capita GDP growth rate. 1

2 Up to 25, GDP growth rates for four regions in the IPCC SRES B2 scenario (OECD9, former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, Asia, Other) were used and then are converted to an initial per capita GDP growth rate. The per capita GDP results for 25 and the per capita GDP growth rate above are used to estimate per capita GDP to 23 in the WB base and to 25 in the IPCC SRES B2 base. This is combined with the population scenarios (UN 26 Estimates) in order to estimate GDP for each country (each region). (Figure 2) The worldwide per capita GDP growth rate is 2.7%/yr for , 1.96%/yr for and 1.9%/yr for Global real GDP growth rate is 3.19%/yr for , 2.91%/yr for and 2.64%/yr for Japan s real GDP growth rate is 2.3%/yr for , 2.1%/yr for and 1.33%/yr for GDP (trillion US$ at 2 prices and ex. rates) Africa India OECD Pacific OECD Europe Fig.2 GDP projections 2

3 7 9 GDP per capita (thousand US$ per capita) GDP per capita (Y25=1) 8 OECD 7 Europe OECD 6 Pacific 5 India 4 3 Africa 2 1 OECD Europe OECD Pacific India Africa Fig.3 Per capita GDP projections 3

4 Table 1 Population projections (billion people) United States Canada United Kingdom France Germany Italy Spain, Portugal Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark North Europe Other EU Norway, Iceland Greenland (Denmark) Other Western Europe Japan Australia New Zealand Other Oceania North Korea, Mongolia Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos Korea Malaysia, Singapore Indonesia Thailand Philippines Brunei Chinese Taipei India Pakistan, Afghanistan Myanmar Other Asia Iran Saudi Arabia

5 33 Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, UAE, Yemen Other Turkey North Africa South Africa South East Africa Other S.S.Africa Mexico Other Central America Brazil Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina Other South America Russia Other Annex I of FUSSR Belarus Kazakhstan Other FUSSR OECD E.Europe Other Annex I of East Europe Other E.Europe World Total

6 Table 2 GDP projections (billion US$ at 2 prices, MER) United States Canada United Kingdom France Germany Italy Spain, Portugal Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark North Europe Other EU Norway, Iceland Greenland (Denmark) Other Western Europe Japan Australia New Zealand Other Oceania North Korea, Mongolia Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos Korea Malaysia, Singapore Indonesia Thailand Philippines Brunei Chinese Taipei India Pakistan, Afghanistan Myanmar Other Asia Iran Saudi Arabia

7 33 Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, UAE, Yemen Other Turkey North Africa South Africa South East Africa Other S.S.Africa Mexico Other Central America Brazil Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname 44 Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina Other South America Russia Other Annex I of FUSSR Belarus Kazakhstan Other FUSSR OECD E.Europe Other Annex I of East Europe Other E.Europe World Total