Economic Trends Across the Asia Pacific Region. Pansy Yau Deputy Director of Research
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1 Economic Trends Across the Asia Pacific Region Pansy Yau Deputy Director of Research
2 2 Rebalancing of the World Economy % Share of world total GDP (PPP) Advanced economies Developing economies Source: World Economic Outlook Database October 2015
3 Development in the Asia Pacific % 25 Share of world total GDP (PPP) Dragon(4) ASEAN(5) China India Japan Aus-NZ US Source: World Economic Outlook Database October 2015
4 China Adjusting to a New Normal, ASEAN(5) and India Gathering Pace % 16 Real GDP growth Emerging Asia ASEAN(5) China India Source: World Economic Outlook Database October 2015
5 5 Rising Importance in the Global Supply Chain % 18.0 Share of world total exports ASEAN(5) India China Source:International Trade Statistical Yearbook 2014
6 6 Emerging Middle Class Population with household disposal income over US$10,000 Percentage of Household Population (million) South Korea 94% 96% 96% 96% Singapore 96% 97% 97% 97% Malaysia 69% 75% 76% 78% Thailand 29% 30% 31% 34% Philippines 21% 33% 35% 38% Indonesia 21% 24% 26% 29% Vietnam 4% 11% 12% 14% China 25% 54% 55% 58% India 12% 19% 22% 25% Source: Euromonitor International
7 7 Growing Consumer Market Source: Homi Kharas, Brookings Institution
8 8 Forces Behind the Growth
9 9 Urbanization More than Half of the World s Mega-cities are Now Found in the Asia Pacific Urbanization Source: UN World Urbanization Prospect 2014 Revision
10 10 Urbanization A Major Source of Economic Strength Changes in urbanization rate and GDP per capita, Source: East Asia s Changing Urban Landscape, World Bank Group
11 FDI and Domestic Investment are Attracted to Cities with Good Infrastructure and Services Urbanization Source: UN World Urbanization Prospect 2014 Revision
12 12 FDI Flows in the Asia Pacific FDI Stock in 2014 Inflow Stock US$ million Outflow Stock United States 5,409,884 6,318,640 Japan 170,615 1,193,137 Net outflow Dragon(4)* 2,712,877 2,553,725 China 1,085, ,585 ASEAN(5) 734, ,599 Net inflow India 252, ,578 Source: World Investment Report 2015 * Hong Kong and Singapore are service platforms channeling FDI flows into China and Southeast Asia. Taiwan and South Korea are net foreign direct investors
13 13 Market Reforms & Liberalization in Asia also Attracted Investment Growth WTO Economic reforms / strategies China 2001 Deepening reforms and opening up since 1978 India 1995 Reforms progress in earnest since Modi Government further relax limits on FDI ownership Malaysia 1995 Commitment to maintaining an open trade policy regime Thailand 1995 Reforms since 1986 to attract labour intensive manufacturing Philippines 1995 Structuring reforms and improvement in socio-economic development since 2010 Indonesia 1995 Major liberalization of trade and investment policies in 1994 Vietnam 2007 New commitments to market oriented reforms in 2000 Myanmar 1995 New foreign investment law passed in 2012 and foreign exchange control abolished
14 Growth & Expansion of the Regional Supply Chain in Asia 14 Source: HKTDC Research
15 15 Megatrends that are Reshaping Asia
16 16 Three Major Axes Connectivity Productivity Sustainability
17 17 Connectivity Trade and Economic Agreements RCEP BRI TPP AEC CAFTA FTAAP
18 18 Connectivity Regional Infrastructure GMS economic corridors Belt and Road economic corridors
19 Connectivity Internet and Social Media Unique mobile subscriber growth in Asia Pacific 19 Source: The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2015, GSMA
20 20 Productivity Population Premium Country 2015 Population ( 000) % Population Aged 60 or Above Japan 126, % 37.3% 42.5% South Korea 50, % 31.4% 41.5% Malaysia 30, % 14.4% 23.6% Thailand 67, % 26.9% 37.1% Philippines 100, % 10.3% 14.0% Indonesia 257, % 13.2% 19.2% Vietnam 93, % 17.5% 27.9% Myanmar 53, % 13.2% 19.4% China 1,376, % 25.3% 36.5% India 1,311, % 12.5% 19.4% Source: UN World Population Prospects, the 2015 revision
21 21 Productivity Technology and Education Ranking in terms of pay and productivity according to the Global Competitiveness Report China India Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia Vietnam Move up the value chain and shift the smile curve upward by upgrading
22 22 Sustainability Extreme weather Water scarcity Pollution
23
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