Vietnam s Current Development Policies: An Overview

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1 Vietnam s Current Development Policies: An Overview

2 Still early days

3 Still predominantly rural Rural population (%) Agricultural labor force (%)

4 An impressive export record 60 Electric app. (*) ($927m) Coal ($915m) Export growth, (%/year) Plastics ($480m) Electronics ($1708m) Motorcycles ($261m) Furniture ($1710m) Oil ($8265m) Fruits & nuts ($758m) Ceramics ($274m) Frozen fish ($787m) Garments ($5469m) Suitcases & bags ($388m) Footware ($3758m) Coffee ($1217m) Pepper & other spices ($211m) Frozen shrimps ($2123m) Rubber ($1286m) Rice ($1276m) Share in world exports, 2006 (%)

5 Investment growing, but still state led

6 But growth driven by the private sector FDI 43.9% 41.1% Private 24.2% 41.3% State 32.0% 17.7% 2000/ /2005

7 Headcount poverty rates National Urban Rural Ethnic minorities Mekong Delta Red River Delta Northern Mountains Central Highlands North Central Coast South Central Coast Southeast

8 Population in poverty 2006 Headcount rate % of pop Poor (thousands) National 16.0% 100% 13,616 Urban 3.9% 26.7% 886 Rural 20.4% 73.3% 12,725 Ethnic minorities 52.3% 13.5% 6,008 Mekong Delta 10.3% 20.9% 1,832 Red River Delta 8.8% 21.8% 1,633 Northern Mountains 30.2% 14.3% 3,675 Central Highlands 28.6% 5.6% 1,363 North Central Coast 29.1% 12.9% 3,195 South Central Coast 12.6% 8.6% 922 Southeast 5.8% 15.9% 785

9 Vietnam s income distribution

10 Rural poverty Rural poverty reduction most closely associated with non-farm employment Non-farm employment most closely associated with access to education Building roads in poor provinces may not increase agricultural productivity, but does give access to NFE Agricultural labor productivity most closely linked to access to size farm and use of improved technologies Chronic underinvestment in agricultural research, but existing research agencies have not performed well. Agricultural extension services top down and unresponsive

11 Social policy is regressive 2% Social Insurance in work 1% 4% 24% 68% Social Insurance Pensions 2% 8% 14% 29% 47% Health assistance 7% 11% 15% 21% 45% Education Assistance 15% 12% 16% 22% 35% Social Welfare 15% 21% 24% 23% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Poorest 2nd 3rd 4th Richest

12 Households finance basic services Private Public Vietnam China Thailand Malaysia

13 Households unable to meet health costs Income Quintile % households Bottom quintile 25 Second 17 Third 15 Fourth 12 Top quintile 9

14 Industrial and Trade Policy Significant removal of barriers for both FDI and domestic private investors, but new barriers to competition are raised Investment-led industrial strategy Import-substitution trade strategy SOEs as the engine of growth Results: Dualist economy Inefficient SOE sector Private sector is small and difficult to grow

15 Share of State and Non-State Owned Industry 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Share (percentage) 0% (Prel) Non-state State

16 Annual Business Registration Businesses ('000) Enterprise Law implemented F

17 Industrial Production Value by Sectors (2006) 32% 30% 38% Private (23.9%) FDI (18.8%) State (9.1%) Note: Figures in parentheses are the annual growth rates

18 Competitiveness Rankings of Vietnam and Comparator Countries Doing Business WEF Competitiveness Vietnam Korea Malaysia Thailand Taiwan Indonesia Philippines

19 Industrial Structure by Ownership in 2005 State Non- State Foreign Total Hanoi region 29.3% 28.2% 42.5% 100% HCMC region 24.5% 22.8% 52.7% 100% Central Vietnam 44.3% 36.4% 19.3% 100% Other regions 54.1% 37.1% 8.9% 100%

20 Comparison of ICOR Period GDP Growth (%/year) Gross Investment/ GDP (%/year) ICOR South Korea Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia Thailand China Vietnam

21 Education: A System Under Strain thousands Growth of University Activity in Vietnam University Enrollments Teach ers Source: Vietnam s Statistical Yearbooks.

22 Gross Tertiary Enrollment Ratio in 2005 (%) South Korea 91 Taiwan 82 Thailand 43 Malaysia 32 China 21 Indonesia Vietnam India 11 Source: Asian Development Bank, Online Development Database.

23 Lack of University-Based Research Source: Scientific Citation Index Expanded

24 High-Tech as a Percentage of Manufactured Exports India Vietnam Indonesia China Thailand Korea, Rep. Singapore Malaysia

25 Share of population growth versus expenditure, Greater Ho Chi Minh City (2005) 70% 60% 58.8% 57.2% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 9.8% 0% Share of Population Growth Share of Net Contribution to National Revenue (Non Oil) Share of National Expenditure

26 Costs to Export India Thailand South Korea 780 Vietnam 701 Indonesia 546 Malaysia 481 Hong Kong Singapore China

27 Strategic Trade Routes: Asia to Europe

28 Financial sector liberalization Moving from administration-based to market-based financial systems. Since 6/2002, interest rate has been liberalized (but undercut by the base rate, civil code, agreement within the Vietnam Bankers Association, and interventions of SBV) Credit line was eliminated in 1998, but target credit growth rates are still set by SBV Directed credits via VDB are off-budget mechanisms to channel resources to SOEs with little transparency Moving to a pegged float exchange rate regime but FX and XR are tightly controlled Capital account is half-way liberalized

29 Financial sector deregulation Moving from a closed to a competitive financial system. Gradual reduction of administrative and legal barriers to entry, expansion, and diversification of new FIs Competition increases dramatically, but there seem too many banks: 4 in 1991 to 51 in 1997 and 80 now 2006, the market share of five SOCBs was nearly 70% of total deposits and 65% of outstanding credit SOE conglomerates open, acquire, and cross-share banks and non-bank FIs [Disappointing] Equitization of SOCBs Increase the participation of foreign FIs

30 Financial sector stabilization Financial sector stabilization is to ensure the long-term soundness of the financial system. Restructuring SOCBs to prepare for IPOs Bad debt resolution: 4 AMCs with total VND120 billion charter capital (or 0.5% total NPLs in 2000) Recapitalization: VND15 trillion in charter capital to SOCBs during (excl. VBSP & VDB) Poor risk management and accounting standards

31 Regulation and Supervision Weak regulatory and supervisory system Lack of credible and timely information for regulation Weak SBV technical capacity to determine bank soundness and systemic risk Fragmented supervision (e.g., SBV and SSC) Vietnam s quick liberalization and deregulation is risky in the absence of: Macroeconomic stability Effectiveness financial sector supervision Transparent regulation and credible enforcement.

32 Effective States Vietnam s most important reforms consisted of a change and reduction in the role of the state (e.g., agriculture, enterprise law) Effective states develop human resources systems that promote officials on the basis of skills and potential rather than personal connections. Effective states have the ability: Build and enforce the rule of law Maintain macro stability Improve the economy s efficiency Have zero tolerance for corruption at all levels.

33 Vietnam s Governance Indicators (1996 vs. 2006)

34 Comparison of the number of hours firms spend finalizing taxes Vietnam 1050 China 872 Indonesia 576 South Korea India Malaysia 190 Thailand Hong Kong Singapore 30

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