Insight Series RACV Club 4 September Opportunity Asia. Phil Ruthven AM, Chairman WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

Transcription

1 Insight Series RACV Club 4 September 2014 Opportunity Asia Phil Ruthven AM, Chairman WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER

2 Topics 1. Global Perspective 2. Regional Perspective 3. Some Australian Perspective 4. International Investment 5. Australia the food bowl?

3 1. Global Perspective

4 The World s Economic Regions In 2014 Share of World GDP (ppp basis) North America 21.9% C&S America 6.3% W&C Europe 18.3% Africa 3.9% ME 5.3% Indian S-C 7.3% Eastern Europe 4.0% Asia Pacific 33.0% 2014 World GDP, $US 92.5 trillion IMF/IBISWorld 09/02/14

5 Importance of World Regions GDP (ppp terms) 2014 Economy Population Middle East % Africa Asia Pacific 33.0% 5.3% 4.0% North America 21.9% Western Europe 18.9% Indian S/C 23.1% Africa 11.5% Asia Pacific 33.6% $US ppp 92.5 trillion 7.2 billion IBISWorld: 28/02/14

6 World Regions Importance Changing importance, % of World GDP (ppp terms) Year 12.7% 2.0% 33.6% 7.6% 3.6% 12.2% 26.1% 22.8% 30.5% 3.5% 6.7% 35.5% 27.3% 8.6% 9.6% 2.7% 7.6% 3.6% 4.2% 17.0% 16.3% 24.0% 6.8% 23.5% 3.5% 3.1% 5.0% 32.1% 18.0% 7.0% 14.5% 4.5% 5.0% 4.5% 10.5% 36.0% Nth America C & S America Western Europe Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Indian S-C Asia Pacific GDP (trillion) Source: OECD 20/02/13

7 2. Regional Perspective

8 Asia Economy Asia Pacific + Indian S-C 2017 (F) Singapore 1.0% Vietnam 1.1% Philipp 1.3% Malaysia 1.5%. Thailand 2.0% Other A-P 0.3% Other Indian S-C 3.0% India 16.9% Greater China 47.9% 45.3% China 11.9% Japan NZ 0.4% 2.8% H/K 1.1% $US 44.9 trillion (40.8% of world GDP) Source: Wikipedia/ IBISWorld 11/09/12

9 Asia Growth 2014 (E) Major Asia Pacific and Indian S-C nations (ppp ranking) Laos China Sri Lanka Cambodia Myanmar Philippines Asia India Bangladesh Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Pakistan5.4 Nepal Singapore S Korea Taiwan NZ Australia Thailand Japan Regions Growth Asia 6.3% E. Europe 2.9% World (8 regions) 3.1% N. America 2.9% EU 1.0% Growth % (GDP) IMF/IBISWorld: 19/08/14

10 Asia, the place to be Australia has integrated its economy and society into Asia at large and China in particular. Asia is a mega-region consisting of the Asia Pacific and Indian sub-continent. It is the most powerful region (36% of world GDP) and the fastest growing (6-7% pa, almost double the global average). Over 75% of our export of goods & services now go to Asia, less than 7% of our GDP is exposed to troubled nations, and two-thirds of our inbound tourists and immigrants come from Asia.

11 3. Some Australian Perspective

12 Australia s Industry Mix Shares of GDP, in F2012 price terms Year to March 2014 Hospitality Pers. & Other Serv. Cult & Rec. Serv. 0.8% Agriculture Mining 2.2% Utilities 10.3% 2.4% Govt. Adm. 5.2% 2.9% 7.6% Construction Admin. & Support Services Rental, Hiring & Real Estate 8.2% Finance & Insurance GDP $1558 billion 2.7% Info Media & Communications Sectors Primary Secondary Tertiary Quaternary Quinary Note 1 : includes stat. discrepancy (0.15%) ABS IBISWorld 05/06/14

13 Australia s Export Market Year 2013 Business Services Other Services 1.1% Services 17% Agriculture Resources 57% Freight/Postal 1.2% Tourism 10.8% 8.0% 49.3% Minerals Manufacturing 26% $319 billion IBISWorld: 11/09/12

14 Australia s Export Market Merchandise goods 2014 Asia Pacific 78% Asia 82% Other A-P 5.4% Other 5.8% 40.3% Greater China China 36.6% Taiwan 2.7% H/K 1.0% 17.9% Japan Indonesia 1.8% $274 billion (year to March 2014) IBISWorld: 22/05/14

15 4. International Investment

16 Who owns who, and how much? Total foreign investment in Australia is around $2.6 trillion (via direct, debt and portfolio forms) So, some 20% of the nation s total assets of over $12 trillion are owned or mortgaged by other nations, 3% of which is Asia Australia has c. $1.7 trillion of the world s assets. In net terms, foreign ownership and indebtedness is about 8% of our the nation s assets

17 Foreign Investment By Type 2014 Outward Inward 28.2% 3.8% 18.4% 8.2% Direct Debt 38.9% 55.4% Portfolio 6.4% 4.5% 19.0% 13.5% 3.7% $1.66 trillion $ 2.51 trillion Derivatives Other Reserve assets Source: ABS A & F

18 Australia s Global Investment Position 2014* % of total basis 100% World Investment Inward GDP Abroad Investment 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% North America 21.9% C & S America 6.3% W & C Europe 18.3% E Europe 4.0% North America 27.9% W & C Europe 24.8% North America 27.9% W&C Europe 29.1%% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Asia Pacific 33.0% Indian S-C 7.3% ME 5.3% Africa 3.9% Asia Pacific 16.8% Unspecified 21.1% $US92.5 trillion $1.63 trillion $2.46 trillion *(2013) India 0.4% Asia Pacific 14.3% Unspecified 27.1% *(2013) Source: ABS

19 International Investment Shares of Total Investment (Direct, portfolio & debt) Foreign (inwards) Abroad (outwards) E. Europe 0.2% 26.0% 28.0% North America 42.2% 32.5% North America 33.2% 17.0% 24.4% 29.1% 17.0% 27.1% C&S America W&C Europe E. Europe (0.2%) Asia India Subcontinent Middle East Africa Unspecified 24.8% 16.5% 16.1% 27.9% 16.8% 27.1% C&S America W& Europe Eastern Europe Asia India Subcontinent Middle East Africa Unspecified $ 0.89 trillion $2.46 trillion $0.54 trillion $1.63 trillion ME 0.9% Africa 0.1% Source: ABS BOP

20 Inward Foreign Investment - Australia Asia Mega-Region Investment $ billion Asia Region (Asia Pacific & Indian sub-continent) Percentage of all countries Source: ABS /08/14

21 Inward Foreign Investment - Australia China Investment $ billion China Percentage of all countries Source: ABS /08/14

22 Australian Outward Foreign Investment Asia Mega-region Investment $ billion Asia (Asia Pacific & Indian sub-continent) Percentage of all countries Source: ABS /08/14

23 Australian Outward Foreign Investment China Investment $ billion China Percentage of all countries Source: ABS /08/14

24 5. Australia: Asia s Food Bowl?

25 What can we do? We are currently feeding our population of 24 million and another million with our exports; say 45 million or so, all up. This is 2% of the Asia Pacific population. With a changing product mix, new technology, continuing productivity, and changes to the industry s structure (finances and ownership style) we could conceivably increase output five-fold over this 21 st Century, supporting million local and O/S people. This would represent 4.5% of the Asia Pacific population of 5 billion at that time, or around 3% of Greater Asia s population. If the increase was to be 10-fold rather than 5-fold, we would be supporting just under a tenth of our region s citizens. But what an opportunity, either way!

26 What can we do? So, Australia needs to become increasingly a more- specialized niche player in terms of products and customer nations; almost certainly focused on the Asia Pacific, although with some ultra-niche products that stretch across to other of the world s 8 regions In the process, it can produce far better returns on equity than the levels of recent decades; but change and adaptation will be required to achieve this