ASIAN TRANSFORMATIONS: An Inquiry into the Development of Nations

Transcription

1 ASIAN TRANSFORMATIONS: An Inquiry into the Development of Nations DEEPAK NAYYAR Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi UNU- WIDER Development Conference Think Development, Think WIDER Helsinki 14 September 2018

2 OVERVIEW Historical Perspective: Rise of Asia: Uneven Development Unequal Outcomes Diversity in Development Learning from Experience

3 1. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE Decline and Fall of Asia in the World Economy: Shares in World GDP: Asia, of which, China and India Asymmetries in Shares of World Income and Population Great Divergence in Incomes per capita

4 Table 1: Shares of the West and the Rest in World GDP : World GDP THE WEST Western Europe Western Offshoots Eastern Europe Former USSR Japan THE REST Latin America Africa Asia (of which) China India Indonesia

5 Percentage of World population Percentage of World GDP Figure 1: Shares of Asia, Africa & Latin America in World GDP & Population: Asia : Population Africa : Population Latin America : Population Asia : GDP Africa : GDP Latin America : GDP

6 Percentage of World population Percentage of World GDP Figure 2: Shares of China, India and Indonesia in World GDP & Population: China : Population India : Population Indonesia : Population China : GDP India : GDP Indonesia : GDP

7 Table 2: Divergence in GDP per capita between Western Europe- North America and the Rest of the World : GDP Per capita ratios Western Europe and Western Offshoots Eastern Europe Former USSR Japan Latin America Africa Asia (of which) China India Indonesia

8 2. RISE OF ASIA Catching Up: Asia in the World Economy: GDP, GDP per capita, and Population Underlying Growth Rates: GDP and GDP per capita Giant Leap in Industrialization

9 Table 3: Asia in the World Economy GDP (US$ billion in current prices at market exchange rates) Asia Developing Countries Industrialized Countries World Percentage Share of Asia in Developing Countries World GDP per capita (US $ in current prices at market exchange rates) Asia Developing Countries Industrialized Countries World GDP per capita in Asia as a percentage of that in Developing Countries World

10 Figure 3: Rising Significance of Asia in the World Economy Population, GDP and GDP per capita: (in percentages) Asia/World GDP Asia/World Population Asia/World GDP per capita Asia/DCs GDP Asia/DCs Population Asia/DCs GDP per capita

11 Table 4: Growth Rates in the World Economy by Country-Groups & Regions: GDP World Industrialized Countries Developing Countries Latin America Africa Asia GDP per capita World Industrialized Countries Developing Countries Latin America Africa Asia

12 Table 5: Manufacturing Value Added in the World Economy by Country- Groups compared with Asia: (in US$ billion) World Industrialized Countries Developing Countries Asia (as a percentage of developing countries) Asia (as a percentage of world) Asia

13 3. UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT Dis-aggregation by Sub-regions: East, Southeast, South and West Asia GDP and GDP per capita in comparison with the World Growth rates in Asia and its Sub-regions Concentrated Industrialization: Manufacturing-value-added

14 Table 6: Asia disaggregated by Sub-regions: GDP and GDP per capita in comparison with the World GDP East Asia Southeast Asia South Asia West Asia Asia GDP per capita East Asia Southeast Asia South Asia West Asia Asia

15 Table 7: Growth Rates in the World Economy by Country-Groups compared with Growth Rates in Asia and its Sub-regions: (percentage) GDP World Industrialized Countries Developing Countries Asia East Asia Southeast Asia South Asia West Asia GDP per capita World Industrialized Countries Developing Countries Asia East Asia Southeast Asia South Asia West Asia

16 Table 8: Manufacturing Value Added in Asia and its Sub-regions compared with the Developing Countries and the World Economy: As a percentage of Developing Countries Asia East Asia Southeast Asia South Asia West Asia As a percentage of World Asia East Asia Southeast Asia South Asia West Asia

17 4. UNEQUAL OUTCOMES Between sub-regions in Asia: leading East, lagging South Between Countries within Regions: emerging divergences, especially LDCs Between Regions within Countries: esp large countries and success stories Among People within Countries: falling poverty but rising inequality

18 Table 9: Economic Significance of the Selected-16 Countries in Asia (as a percentage of the total for Asia) Countries Population GDP Population GDP Population GDP China Korea Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Bangladesh India Pakistan Sri Lanka Iran Saudi Arabia Turkey Total above Asia

19 5. DIVERSITY IN DEVELOPMENT Alternatives in Development: no unique paths Size, Endowments, History and Context States and Markets Degrees and Nature of Openness Relative Importance of Domestic and External: markets, resources, technologies Governments and Politics

20 6. LEARNING AND UNLEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE Learning from the Catch Up process in Asia Learning for Laggards from the Leaders: catching up and middleincome traps Learning for Leaders from their Past: sustaining development and progress Importance of Unlearning from Experience