Trends in international higher education

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1 Trends in international higher education 1 Schedule Student decision-making Drivers of international higher education mobility Demographics Economics Domestic tertiary enrolments International postgraduate forecasts Outbound mobility Inbound mobility Postgraduate flows to Australia 1

2 Schedule Student decision-making Drivers of international higher education mobility Demographics Economics Domestic tertiary enrolments International postgraduate forecasts Outbound mobility Inbound mobility Postgraduate flows to Australia Student Insight Longitudinal survey, running since 2007 Over 180,000 responses collected globally How? with the cooperation of the British Council network and strategic partners No destination country bias 2

3 What are the most important factors when choosing a host country for study abroad? Quality of education Career prospects Internationally recognised qualifications Opportunities for employment while studying University reputation From what countries are students interested in Australia as a study destination? China Bangladesh Turkey Pakistan Thailand India 3

4 What is your preferred subject area of study? Business and administrative studies Engineering and technology Computer science English language Social studies (economics, politics, etc.) Schedule Student decision-making Drivers of international higher education mobility Demographics Economics Domestic tertiary enrolments International postgraduate forecasts Outbound mobility Inbound mobility Postgraduate flows to Australia 4

5 Drivers of international higher education Sustainable growth in an international student market is dependent on numerous factors Demographics Economics Changes in political conditions Growth in education provision Digital technology Cultural impact Global workforce demands/skills gaps Language 9 Drivers of international student mobility: Demographics There exists a positive correlation between university aged populations and tertiary enrolments 5

6 World population prospects, the 2012 Revision 11 Population aged 15-24, by major regions Africa Asia Europe Latin America Northern America Oceania

7 Demographic trends to 2024: Tertiary age (18-22) population growth 13 Diverging demographic trends across origin markets

8 Rural and urban population forecast 15 Drivers of international student mobility: Economics There exists a positive relationship between household wealth (GDP per capita) and tertiary enrolments

9 log(enrolment rate) log(enrolment rate) log(enrolment rate) 10/10/2014 Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP) All countries 6.0 A l l v CUBA GREECE FINLAND UKRAINE RUSSIAN BELARUS LITHUANIA LATVIA NEW ZEALAND AUSTRALIA DENMARK HUNGARY ESTONIA ITALY BELGIUM BULGARIA CROATIA CZECH REPUBLIC FRANCE ICELAND NORWAY POLAND FEDERATION SLOVENIA SWEDEN UNITED STATES KAZAKHSTAN ISRAEL JAPAN IRELAND LEBANON ROMANIA PORTUGAL UNITED SPAIN NETHERLANDS KINGDOM y = 0.80x THAILAND URUGUAY VENEZUELA AUSTRIA GEORGIA JORDAN PANAMA SLOVAKIA SWITZERLAND ARMENIA COLOMBIA PERU PHILIPPINES TUNISIA TURKEY R 2 = 0.77 MEXICO EL SALVADOR CHINA ALGERIA TAJIKISTAN INDONESIA AZERBAIJAN SOUTH MAURITIUS AFRICA INDIA MOROCCO UZBEKISTAN GUYANA YEMEN CAPE VERDE GUATEMALA CAMEROON GUINEA GHANA BENIN NAMIBIA CAMBODIA PAKISTAN LESOTHO SWAZILAND BURUNDI ETHIOPIA MADAGASCAR BURKINA FASO log(gdp per capita, PPP $) Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP) v Developed countries 5 GREECE FINLAND NEW SLOVENIA ZEALAND SWEDEN DENMARK UNITED STATES LATVIA NORWAY RUSSIAN FEDERATION HUNGARY AUSTRALIA ICELAND POLAND ESTONIA SPAIN ITALY BELGIUM ISRAEL UNITED FRANCE JAPAN KINGDOM NETHERLANDS IRELAND PORTUGAL CZECH REPUBLIC AUSTRIA 4 SWITZERLAND y = -0.00x R 2 = 0.00 Emerging markets y = 7.60x log(gdp per capita, PPP $) 4.0 R 2 = BURUNDI CUBA UKRAINE BELARUS KAZAKHSTAN THAILAND LEBANON BULGARIA URUGUAY ROMANIA VENEZUELA PANAMA GEORGIA JORDAN ARMENIA PERU PHILIPPINES COLOMBIA TUNISIA TURKEY MEXICO EL SALVADOR CHINA ALGERIA TAJIKISTAN INDONESIA AZERBAIJAN SOUTH MAURITIUS AFRICA INDIA MOROCCO GUYANA UZBEKISTAN YEMEN CAPE VERDE GUATEMALA CAMEROON GUINEA NAMIBIA GHANA BENIN CAMBODIA PAKISTAN SWAZILAND LESOTHO MADAGASCAR ETHIOPIA BURKINA FASO log(gdp per capita, PPP $) 9

10 Gross tertiary enrolment ratio 10/10/2014 Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP) PPP GDP per capita and tertiary enrolment ratio (2009) 120% 100% y = ln(x) R² = South Korea v 80% Ukraine Greece US 60% Singapore 40% UAE Mexico & Malaysia 20% Trinidad & Tobago Botswana 0% $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Nominal PPP US$ GDP per capita Source: Haver Analytics, Oxford Economics, UNESCO World GDP growth ( ) v 10

11 Economics: GDP per capita growth ( ) 21 Schedule Student decision-making Drivers of international higher education mobility Demographics Economics Domestic tertiary enrolments International postgraduate forecasts Outbound mobility Inbound mobility Postgraduate flows to Australia 11

12 Tertiary enrolment forecast v Top tertiary enrolments (2012) China India Top tertiary enrolments (2024) India China United States United States Russia Indonesia Forecasted tertiary enrolments to

13 Annual average growth in tertiary enrolments v Nigeria 6.4% Indonesia 5.3% Pakistan 5.2% India 4.5% Saudi Arabia 3.4% Mexico 2.6% Turkey 1.3% Malaysia 1.3% Spain 1.3% France 1.3% China 1.1% United States 0.6% Vietnam 0.4% Canada 0.1% Italy -0.2% Thailand -0.2% Iran -0.4% Germany -0.6% Greece -0.9% Russian Federation -1.7% Poland -2.1% Republic of Korea -2.4% Taiwan -2.5% Schedule Student decision-making Drivers of international higher education mobility Demographics Economics Domestic tertiary enrolments International postgraduate forecasts Outbound mobility Inbound mobility Postgraduate flows to Australia 13

14 Global student mobility, Postgraduate student mobility trends to 2024 Research aim: Forecast the landscape for postgraduate mobility to 2024 by studying demographic and economic drivers of demand

15 Model market coverage 29 Highest number of outbound postgraduates v China India Korea Saudi Arabia United States Taiwan Canada Iran France Nigeria 2024 China India Nigeria Saudi Arabia United States Iran Korea Pakistan Indonesia Vietnam 15

16 Outbound postgraduates to selected destinations 31 China and India growth index (2012 = 100)

17 Forecasted inbound postgraduate flows to Annual average change in inbound postgraduates Change (% annual ave.) Australia 2.4% 4.1% Change (% annual ave.) Canada 6.8% 4.1% United States 2.9% 4.0% Germany 3.4% 3.6% United Kingdom 4.1% 3.5% Japan 5.4% 1.6%

18 Inbound PG flows attributable to China and India 35 Top five bilateral flows to 2024 Seven of the top ten largest bilateral flows will be from China or India to host destinations

19 Schedule Student decision-making Drivers of international higher education mobility Demographics Economics Domestic tertiary enrolments International postgraduate forecasts Outbound mobility Inbound mobility Postgraduate flows to Australia Postgraduate flows to Australia to

20 Key findings of postgraduate research The US will continue to be the largest postgraduate host destination to 2024, though Canada and Australia will grow at a quicker pace India and China to fuel growth in outbound postgraduates Particular destination markets will be heavily dependent on these China and India Significant postgraduate growth in other key nations: Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam 39 All generalisations are false, including this one. Alexander Chase, journalist 20

21 Thank you! Download Postgraduate student mobility trends to 2024 for free on our website:

Trends in international higher education

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