FIVE KEY TRENDS STRUCTURING L.A. S FUTURE AND WHY 2GEN MAKES SENSE

Transcription

1 FIVE KEY TRENDS STRUCTURING L.A. S FUTURE AND WHY 2GEN MAKES SENSE 05/29/2015 MANUEL FUTURE-CASTING LOS ANGELES Slowing Demographic Change at Macro-level The Action: Micro-level Changes in Demography Low-wage Work and Income Inequality Workforce Not Ready For Jobs of Future 1

2 Changing Demographics California, % 90% 80% 5% 9% 19% 26% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 11% 13% 14% 14% 14% Other Native American 70% 60% 8% 7% 32% 38% 41% 43% 45% Asian/Pacific Islander 50% 6% Latino 40% 30% 20% 67% 57% 47% 6% 40% 6% 5% 5% 37% 34% 32% Black White 10% 0%

3 Changing Demographics Los Angeles County, % 90% 6% 10% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 12% 14% 14% 14% 14% Other 80% 70% 28% 37% Asian/Pacific Islander 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 12% 53% 11% 41% 45% 9% 31% 48% 51% 54% 56% 8% 8% 8% 7% 28% 25% 22% 20% Latino Black White 0% IMMIGRATION AS A (NON-) FACTOR 50% A Leveling Off: Immigrant Share of Total Population California, Los Angeles, and the U.S. Los Angeles 40% 30% California 20% United States 10% 0%

4 THE LEGACY THAT REMAINS Undocumented residents are: 1 million residents; 10% of the county, 12% of adults, and 15% of our workforce; and 30% of the construction industry, and nearly 20% of industries such as personal services, retail trade, and manufacturing UNDOCUMENTED ANGELENOS..are a settled population; Nearly half of all undocumented Angelenos have been here more than 10 years, and Nearly 1 in 8 undocumented heads of household are homeowners. Roughly 1 in 5 children have at least one undocumented parent 4

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7 YOUTH POPULATION, SOUTH LA 200,000 Black Latino 173, , , , , , ,445 83,171 63,625 58,236 50,

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9 Income Percentiles, Earned Income for Full Time Workers ($2010) U.S. and Los Angeles Long Beach Santa Ana, CA Metro, * Los Angeles Long Beach Santa Ana, CA United States 17% 19% 8% 7% 10th Percentile 20th Percentile 50th Percentile 80th Percentile 90th Percentile 8% 6% 6% 10% 21% 22% 9

10 Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity Los Angeles Long Beach Santa Ana, CA Metro % 38% 32% 32% 23% 24% 23% 26% 13% 16% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander All L.A.: JOBS REQUIRING ONLY A HIGH SCHOOL DEGREE 10

11 L.A.: JOBS REQUIRING A B.A. OR BETTER FAMILIES OF THE FUTURE? U.S. PROFILE Living Arrangements for Children by Race/Ethnicity, % 80% 3% 4% 16% 8% 3% 4% 2% 1% 3% 9% 26% 6% 4% 29% Other 60% 51% Father only 40% 77% 67% 87% 62% Mother only 20% 38% Two Parents 0% Non-Hispanic White Black Latino Asian Other 11

12 FUTURE-CASTING LOS ANGELES 5. When Good News Goes Bad: Displacement L.A. S AFFORDABILITY CRISIS Not only are low-wage jobs far away from affordable homes: wages are going down as rents are going up Source: California Housing Partnership Corporation. May How Los Angeles County s Housing Market is Failing to Meet the Needs of Low-Income Families. 12

13 L.A. S AFFORDABILITY CRISIS and so L.A. County has the largest shortfall of affordable homes in California made worse by state and federal disinvestment in housing. Source: California Housing Partnership Corporation. May How Los Angeles County s Housing Market is Failing to Meet the Needs of Low-Income Families. DAPA AND DACA: A 2GEN EXAMPLE DACA - Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) Initiated 2012, but expanded 2014 Must have immigrated before 16 years of age Now no age caps; arrival date from 2007 to 2010 DAPA - Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) Both eligible for authorized work permits for three years Must be the parent of a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident Have continuously lived in U.S. since Jan. 1,

14 DACA VS. DACA: WHICH TARGETS KIDS? In the U.S.: There are nearly 300,000 immigrants who benefit from DACA expansion and threefourths are above the age of 30 On the other hand, there are approximately 3.7 million parents eligible for DAPA. In California: 1.1 million parents qualify for DAPA, and they have nearly 1.6 million minor children 93% of whom are U.S. citizens. 350, ,000 Parents that will be eligible under deferred action (DAPA) because of citizen and LPR children 365,000 Estimates (March 2015) 250, , , ,000 50,000 59,000 33,000 31, , ,000 22,000 75,000 62,000 25,000 14

15 Persons who will be eligible under expanded DACA (includes those currently eligible prior to executive action) 350, ,000 Estimates (March 2015) 250, , , , ,000 50,000 23,000 14,000 12,000 45,000 50,000 9,000 32,000 23,000 7,000 Minor Children with Parents Eligible for DAPA 519,647 Estimates March , ,836 76,990 53,012 50,792 30, ,193 86,316 Alameda/Contra Costa Fresno Kern Los Angeles Orange Riverside/San Bernardino Sacramento San Diego San Mateo/Santa Clara 15

16 WHY IT MATTERS FOR THE KIDS Negative effects measured in educational achievement, cognitive development and emotional stability for DAPA children Being the child of an undocumented parent is associated with heightened symptoms of anxiety and depression But the research also shows that these negative effects can be reversed MOVING FORWARD Bridge generations & geographies in your approach 16

17 FOR MORE... Visit @CSII_USC 17