DOING GOOD AND DOING WELL: WHY EQUITY MATTERS FOR SUSTAINING PROSPERITY IN A CHANGING AMERICA

Transcription

1 DOING GOOD AND DOING WELL: WHY EQUITY MATTERS FOR SUSTAINING PROSPERITY IN A CHANGING AMERICA 11/13 MANUEL 1

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3 U.S. Change in Youth (<18) Population by Race/Ethnicity, ,788, , ,683 White Black Latino API Other -248,081-4,310,525 3

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10 Portrait of America: The Changing Suburbs 100% 80% 60% 3% 4% 3% 5% 5% 6% 9% 8% 13% 12% 16% 7% 12% 17% 12% 9% 12% Other 10% API Latino 40% 76% 69% 64% Black 81% 72% 65% White 20% 0% national profile metro suburbs profile Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white. Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white. 10

11 Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white. Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white. Note: Block groups with 50 or fewer people in either year were excluded and are shaded white. 11

12 Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white. SOUTH LOS ANGELES WITH 2000 U.S. CENSUS TRACT BOUNDARI 12

13 South Central Los Angeles High School School Demography, Demographics School Year School Year 1% 0% 0% 4% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 2% 7% 5% 10% 7% 42% 31% 99% 91% 93% 90% 98% 91% 57% 68% Other Latino African American Crenshaw Dorsey Fremont Jefferson Jordan Locke Manual Arts Washington Prep South Central Los Angeles High School School Demography, Demographics School Year School Year 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 30% 42% 47% 90% 90% 77% 67% 81% 68% 57% 52% 9% 9% 22% 31% 18% Other Latino African American Crenshaw Dorsey Fremont Jefferson Jordan Locke Manual Arts Washington Prep 13

14 50 Median Age by Race/Ethnicity U.S., Non-Hispanic White Asian/Pacific Islander Black Native American/Alaska Native Latino Other or Mixed Race 14

15 Growing Generation Gap in the U.S % 85% 80% 75% 87% 75% Share of Seniors Who Are Non-Hispanic White 80% 70% 65% Share of Youth Who Are Non-Hispanic White 60% 55% 55% 50% Source: Policylink/PERE analysis of data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) Current Population Survey (CPS) March Supplement. THE GAP MATTERS 15

16 THE GAP MATTERS AGAINST A CONTEXT OF GROWING INEQUALITY Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity/Nativity,

17 BUT AT LEAST WE MOVE UP OVER TIME? BUT AT LEAST WE MOVE UP OVER TIME? 36 17

18 AND PERSISTENT RACIAL GAPS 18

19 RISING CONCERNS ABOUT INEQUALITY Partly motivated by traditional concerns about justice Partly motivated by worries about impacts on polity But, most important: Potential negative effects on growth Looking forward: persistent inequality, particularly by race, will create reduced capacity USC PERE 41 19

20 THINKING OLD: EQUITY VS. EFFICIENCY Conventional wisdom in economics Need for large-scale investment Shift from low to high productivity Incentives and motivation But are there new equity and growth synergies? USC PERE 42 NATIONAL-LEVEL MACROECONOMIC STORY Inadequate consumer demand Excessive financialization Rent-seeking in government Inadequate work incentives USC PERE 43 20

21 U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS Borrowing from international techniques and making use of concept that the new economic unit is the metropolitan area, we and others find that: Metro per capita income is a function of: (+) regional education (-) manufacturing concentration (+) central city presence (-) previous income (?) region of U.S. (-) measure of inequity, including ratio of city to suburb poverty, concentration of poverty, income distribution (80-20 ratio), black-white segregation USC PERE 44 EVIDENCE: EQUITY IS GOOD FOR GROWTH Even the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that that racial inclusion and income equality matter for growth. Image Sources:

22 EQUITY & GROWTH In more recent research... EQUITY & SUSTAINED GROWTH (.00) (.11) insig (.05) insig (.20).972 (.13) (.14) (.00) (.00) (.27) insig. insig. Percent of Growth Spell in National Recession Metropolitan Power Diffusion Index Gini Coefficient (residual) Percent Minority Middle Class Dissimilarity Index, Non-Hispanic White Ratio, Principal City to Suburban Poverty Rates Adult population with HS to AA Degree Percent of population foreign born Percent employment in public administration Percent employment in manufacturing Percent employment in construction Exports as percent of GMP Percent of workforce covered by a union contract External Shock Political Institutions Inequality Social Indicators Employment and Exports Economic Institutions 22

23 PUNCHLINES FROM REGRESSION WORK Largest and most significant factor associated with shortened growth spells is levels of inequality Residential segregation and metropolitan fragmentation also associated with shortened growth spells Other factors include education levels and economic structures IT S A BROADER STORY Underinvestment in each other makes us less competitive as a nation Social tensions over who will gain and who will lose make us less likely to cohere on what we need to do to thrive 23

24 LEADING THROUGH THE DIVIDE So it s a challenge for all of us: economic development folks and business leaders need to rethink the role of equity But equity proponents need to consider economic realities and constraints and propose feasible, growth-enhancing approaches And we need the concrete community development, housing, and land use policies to make this real AND IN THIS EFFORT, PLACE MATTERS At the same ti,e, the familiar dichotomy of place-based versus people-based antipoverty policy has outlived its usefulness 24

25 AND IN THIS EFFORT, PLACE MATTERS We need to simultaneously: Improve conditions in poor neighborhoods Open up access to opportunityrich communities Realign regional growth and development to better connect low-income people and places with metro-wide opportunities AND SO DOES POLITICS, POWER, AND VOICE Demonstration projects show us what s possible. Demonstration Projects People & Politics Policy Reform Policy changes make the possible standard practice. But it is people and politics that ultimately drives policy reform. 25

26 LEADING THROUGH THE DIVIDE Understand that this is an aspirational not an angry constituency Stress that equity and inclusion are fundamental not add-on s Frame around bridging generations and geographies See smart growth as not just a strategy but a conversation about our shared future LEADING THROUGH THE DIVIDE 26

27 LEADING THROUGH THE DIVIDE The USC Program for Environmental and Regional Equity (PERE) conducts research and facilitates discussions on issues of environmental justice, regional inclusion, and social movement building. University of Southern California 950 W. Jefferson Boulevard JEF 102 Los Angeles, CA t f