LOOKING FORWARD: DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMY, & WORKFORCE FOR THE FUTURE

Transcription

1 LOOKING FORWARD: DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMY, & WORKFORCE FOR THE FUTURE 05/20/2016 MANUEL

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3 U.S. Change in Youth (<18) Population by Race/ Ethnicity, ,788, , ,683 White Black Latino API Other -248,081-4,310,525

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5 Changing Demographics, California, % 90% 6% 9% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 11% 13% 14% 14% 15% Other 80% 19% 25% Native American 70% 60% 8% 7% 32% 38% 40% 43% 45% Asian/Pacific Islander 50% 6% Latino 40% 30% 20% 10% 67% 57% 47% 6% 40% 6% 37% 5% 34% 5% 30% Black White 0%

6 IMMIGRATION AS A (NON-) FACTOR 45% Immigrant Share of the Population United States, California, and Los Angeles, % 35% Los Angeles 30% 25% California 20% 15% 10% 5% U.S. Note that last data points are for three year change 0%

7 A MORE SETTLED IMMIGRANT POPULATION 80% Percent of Immigrant Population in U.S. Since % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% North Dakota South Dakota Wyoming Kentucky Alabama Nebraska Indiana Mississippi Tennessee Iowa Missouri Louisiana Oklahoma Minnesota District of Columbia Delaware Arkansas South Carolina Kansas North Carolina Ohio West Virginia Georgia Virginia Maryland Wisconsin Colorado Utah Pennsylvania Massachusetts Montana Washington Alaska Idaho Oregon Texas Michigan Connecticut New Jersey New Hampshire Florida New Mexico Illinois New York Nevada Hawaii Rhode Island Arizona Maine Vermont California

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13 SHIFTING DISTRIBUTION WITHIN METROS Distribution of the White Population, Largest 50 Metro Areas 100% 80% 44% 50% 56% 59% Outer Suburbs 60% Inner-ring Suburbs 40% 28% 25% 22% 19% Central Cities 20% 28% 25% 23% 22% 0% February

14 SHIFTING DISTRIBUTION WITHIN METROS Distribution of People of Color, Largest 50 Metro Areas 100% 80% 17% 23% 30% 38% 21% 22% Outer Suburbs 60% 21% 20% Inner-ring Suburbs 40% 20% 62% 55% 49% 42% Central Cities 0% February

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19 PART OF THE STORY: CENTRAL CITY PUSH-OUT

20 THE NEW GENERATION GAP Median Age by Race/Ethnicity, United States, White API Black American Indian and Alaska Native Latino Other or mixed race All

21 THE GAP MATTERS

22 THE GAP MATTERS

23 INEQUALITY ON THE RISE 25% Income Distribution in the U.S., Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity/Nativity, % percent of income 15% 10% 5% Top 1% (incomes above $394,000 in 2012) Top 5-1% (incomes between $161,000 and $394,000) Top 10-5% (incomes between $114,000 and $161,000) 0% Source: Emmanuel Saez, Striking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Update : September 15, 2013.

24 CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY Income Percentiles, Earned Income for Full-Time Workers ($2010) U.S. and California, * California United States 25% 12% 15% 4% 10th Percentile 20th Percentile 50th Percentile 80th Percentile 90th Percentile -4% -11% -10% -8% -19% -19% Source: IPUMS

25 BUT WE MOVE UP OVER TIME? Class Stickiness Income Inequality 25

26 RACIAL PROGRESS STALLED Minority Median Family Income as percent of White Median Family Income 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% Ratio of U.S. Resident Median Family Income (Blacks and Latinos Relative to Whites) Ratio Black to White Income Ratio Black to Non-Hispanic White Income Ratio Latino to Non-Hispanic White Income

27 FAMILIES BELOW 150% FEDERAL POVERTY LINE (broken by race/ethnicity) U.S. as a whole 40% 41% 21% 25% 27% White Black Latino API All

28 WORKERS MAKING AT LEAST $15 AN HOUR (broken by race/ethnicity) U.S. as a whole

29 JOBS REQUIRING ONLY A HIGH SCHOOL DEGREE (compared to population with same educational level) U.S. as a whole

30 JOBS REQUIRING A B.A. OR BETTER (compared to population with same educational level) U.S. as a whole

31 AND WHY SO IMPORTANT NOW?

32 ARE WE PREPARING THE NEXT GENERATION? Kids of color concentrated in high-poverty schools (U.S. as a whole)

33 ONE RESPONSE: GENERATIONAL WARFARE Underinvestment in each other makes us less competitive as regions and as a nation Social tensions over who will gain and who will lose make us less likely to cohere on what we need to do to thrive

34 STANDING APART There is an inability to cooperate, collaborate and compromise because we don t even agree on what is real, what is needed, and what we may have in common

35 LIVING APART

36 VOTING APART In 1992, only about a quarter of voters lived in a county were a presidential candidate won by a landslide. By 2012 it was a half.

37 (NOT) WORKING TOGETHER 100 Average Party Unity Scores, House and Senate, Democrats Republicans 65 60

38 (NOT) KNOWING TOGETHER Percent Daily Readership (print or online) Newspaper Readership by Age Group, From broadcast news to narrow-cast cable & social media Source: Newspaper Assocation of Amerca, from data by Scarborough Research

39 FAITH IN INSTITUTIONS IS SHAKEN

40 THINKING NEW: EQUITY AND GROWTH Conventional wisdom in economics says there is a trade-off between equity and efficiency. But, new evidence shows that regions that work toward equity have stronger and more resilient economic growth for everyone. Source: baptistchurch/site_images/sub_page70_picture0.jpg

41 EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH Even the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that that racial inclusion and income equality matter for growth. Image Sources:

42 EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH

43 EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH We have developed these ideas further in...

44 IMPLICATIONS FOR WORKFORCE Shifting workforce development paths & priorities Changing nature of concentrated poverty Disappearing high-quality employment opportunities

45 IMPLICATIONS FOR WORKFORCE Workforce development has to go beyond just meeting market needs Workforce developers need to take up three tasks: Meeting Molding Making Molding Meeting Making

46 SECTORS MATTER Identify and target sectors slated to grow in the 21 st century Improve job quality and connections to workers in low-income areas Example: Jobs to Move America Campaign Leveraging public spending on the expansion of rail and mass transit U.S. Employment Plan as a tool to incentivize local hiring and targeted hiring of disadvantaged workers

47 QUALITY MATTERS Upgrade the quality of available employment Create positions and pathways that involve clear trajectories upward Example: Restaurant Opportunity Center (ROC) Workforce training program designed to train-up Intentional strategy of addressing racial and gender gap in the industry A high-road employers association to help firms who promote high quality jobs Worker cooperatively-owned restaurant

48 INSTITUTIONS MATTER Community colleges can promote job linkages, integrate services, and serve diverse student needs from basic ed to technical training Spending by anchor institutions can be leveraged for local economic development and job creation Example: California Community Colleges: Doing What Matters for Jobs and the Economy Initiative Investing in 10 priority regional industry sectors Aligning funding sources and regional stakeholders

49 CONNECTIONS MATTER Beyond creating opportunities, we have to make sure communities with the most need know about them. Connecting low-income communities to these kinds of job opportunities has to also consider key challenges: Barriers to reentry for recently incarcerated Tending to issues of legal/immigration status Incorporation of single-female heads of households

50 RELATIONSHIPS MATTER Develop relationships with employers and community institutions Work with partners to overcome structural barriers Example: Project Quest Started by an institution with deep roots in poor neighborhood that partners with employers and community college district In 2014, Chamber of Commerce supported a sales tax increase to extend pre-k education to disadvantaged kids as an investment in workforce development.

51 RELATIONSHIPS MATTER

52 DATA MATTERS

53 DATA MATTERS

54 MOVING FORWARD: THE NEXT AMERICA Bridge generations & geographies in your approach

55 FOR