The I.E. in the I.E. November Christopher Thornberg, PhD Director, Center for Economic Forecasting and Development
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1 The I.E. in the I.E. International Economy November 2017 Inland Empire Christopher Thornberg, PhD Director, Center for Economic Forecasting and Development
2 Center For Forecasting and Development Visions Building a better, more in-depth understanding of the economy of Inland Southern California; Promoting an active dialogue between government, business and academia Revealing the region's significance to the state & the nation; and Supporting its economic advancement and expansion. Internal Goals The Center for Economic Forecasting & Development is dedicated to: Actively engaging business and government communities; Informing and contributing to a robust policy dialogue on and off campus; Increasing media outreach and exposure; 2
3 Partner with local leaders on research We partner with local cities, counties, & businesses to do local analysis. Types of analysis the Center specializes in: Economic, Demographic & Revenue Forecasting Economic Impact Analysis Regional Intelligence Reports Employment and Industry Cluster Analysis A Selection of local Center partners: County of Riverside EDA County of San Bernardino EDA South Coast Air Quality Management District BNSF Railway Riverside Public Utilities Autoclub Speedway City of Ontario Coachella Valley 3
4 Collaborate with UCR Partners The Center seeks to be an active presence on campus in collaboration with fellow thought leaders at UCR. Sample collaborative engagements are below; the Center s campus footprints continues to grow. Center economists joined a Brookings working group exploring predictive analysis within the Inland Empire. Dr. Chris Thornberg joined UCR International Affairs Office s Delegation to Taiwan. Center Deputy Director, Sherif Hanna joined the School of Business Strategic Planning Committee in
5 Forecasting 101 5
6 The Victory of Miserabilism If it ain t broke don t fix it US GDP is growing at a logical pace Fundamentals still fine, no sign of looming recession U.S.: 5% world s population, 20% of the world s consumption Incomes have been rising, true well-being even more so Labor markets are tight! Inflation slow, interest rates low Business investment solid, profits are high US energy: too successful for its own good Manufacturing: doing just fine The true challenges State and Local budgets still stressed Under-investment in infrastructure Looming labor shortages Healthcare cost inflation Underfunded pensions and entitlements A broken tax system Growing wealth inequality An under-performing housing market / bad financial regulations (Dodd-Frank) Political gridlock and the growing disconnect between debate and reality 6
7 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% GDP Growth: Back to 2.2% 2017 Real GDP Growth (y-o-y) Q3 GDP FD Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 Consumption Goods Services Fixed investment Structures Equipment IPP Residential inventories Net exports Exports Imports Government Federal State and local
8 Foreign Trade Exports of goods and services $US RXR Index Jan 2009 Sep 2009 May 2010 Jan 2011 Sep 2011 May 2012 Jan 2013 Sep 2013 May 2014 Jan 2015 Sep 2015 May 2016 Jan
9 Secular Stagnation? 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Real GDP Growth Y-o-Y 1985Q1 1987Q3 1990Q1 1992Q3 1995Q1 1997Q3 2000Q1 2002Q3 2005Q1 2007Q3 2010Q1 2012Q3 2015Q1 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% US Population of Year Olds Growth Share % 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 9
10 Labor Markets Dec-00 Mar-02 Jun-03 JOLT Job Openings Rate (% of Jobs) Sep-04 Dec-05 Mar-07 Jun-08 Sep-09 Dec-10 Mar-12 Jun-13 Sep-14 Dec-15 Mar Jan-97 Sep-98 May-00 Unemployment Jan-02 Sep-03 May-05 U6 Jan-07 Sep-08 U3 May Jan Sep-13 May-15 Jan-17 10
11 Demographic Limits Population by Age by Nativity (Millions) Share Foreign Born by Age 15 to % 20 to % 25 to % 30 to % 35 to % 40 to % 45 to % 50 to % 55 to % 60 to % Native Foreign 11
12 California fact versus fiction 12
13 State Economic Performance 5 Year Change in Payroll Jobs by State New Jobs Ann Gr US Share Utah % 1.8% Nevada % 1.5% Florida 1, % 9.5% Idaho % 0.8% Colorado % 2.7% Oregon % 1.8% Washington % 3.2% California 2, % 16.1% Georgia % 4.1% Texas 1, % 11.2% Arizona % 2.3% South Carolina % 1.7% Tennessee % 2.5% North Carolina % 3.3% Montana % 0.3% Jan-95 Nov-96 Sep-98 Employment (Index) Jul-00 May-02 Mar-04 US Jan-06 Nov-07 CA Sep-09 Jul-11 May-13 Mar-15 13
14 The Big Slowdown State and National Job Growth California Labor Force Growth 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Jan-04 Mar-05 May-06 Jul-07 Sep-08 Nov-09 Jan-11 Mar-12 May-13 Jul-14 Sep-15 Nov-16 14
15 The IE in Context Private Sector Employment Ranking Rank Region 2015 Payrolls 15 San Diego CA MSA 1,221, St. Louis MO-IL MSA 1,203, Denver CO MSA 1,165, Baltimore MD 1,121, Riverside-San Bernardino CA MSA 1,092, San Francisco CA MSA 1,072, Tampa-St. Petersburg FL MSA 1,061, Pittsburgh PA MSA 1,034, San Jose CA MD 987, Orlando FL MSA 984, Portland-Vancouver OR-WA MSA 969,903 Recent Growth Rates Jul Inland Empire 1,440, % 3.3% 2.7% Fresno 342, % 3.1% 2.1% San Francisco 1,118, % 4.1% 2.0% East Bay 1,159, % 3.2% 2.0% Sacramento 968, % 3.5% 1.5% San Diego 1,442, % 2.6% 1.2% San Jose 1,092, % 3.3% 1.1% Los Angeles 4,448, % 2.7% 1.1% Kern 257, % -1.9% 1.1% Orange 1,592, % 2.3% 0.6% 15
16 The Inland Empire no longer your father s economy Rank MSA Population million people in 20 years 3,200 Move over, New Orleans is moving in 7 Philadelphia 6,070, % 8 Miami 6,066, % 9 Atlanta 5,789, % 10 Boston 4,794, % 11 San Francisco 4,679, % 12 Phoenix 4,661, % 13 Inland Empire 4,527, % 14 Detroit 4,297, % 15 Seattle 3,798, % 16 Minneapolis 3,551, % 17 San Diego 3,317, % 18 Tampa 3,032, % Thousands 3,000 I.E. Population Forecast 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2, Riverside San Bernardino 16
17 Ahead, yet behind Private Sector Employment Wages Rank Region 2015 Avg Pay 15 San Diego CA MSA $53, St. Louis MO-IL MSA $49, Denver CO MSA $56, Baltimore MD $54, Riverside-San Bernardino CA MSA $39, San Francisco CA MSA $99, Tampa-St. Petersburg FL MSA $44, Pittsburgh PA MSA $48, San Jose CA MD $109, Orlando FL MSA $41, Portland-Vancouver OR-WA MSA $53,844 The Next Stage of Growth in the IE Job Densification Development and expansion of key clusters Public Investment in Infrastructure Workforce Education / Training Deepening the local attachment to the Global Economy 17
18 Teaching the global economy? Why? Expansion: the vast majority of growth will occur outside the United States in coming years Interdependence: The US interacts with the world economy more than ever before Walls Suck: Progress depends on cooperation which depends on trust and understanding How? Integrating global into the school curriculum Creating business / political linkages to the global marketplace Opportunities for personal experience Work to leverage existing relationships 18
19 Local Exporters $, Billions Inland Empire MSA Exports 2016 All Products 10,211,645,251 Primary Metal Manufacturing 1,622,065,912 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 1,495,384,970 Computer Electronic Product 1,424,053,691 Transportation Equipment 1,083,083,215 Chemical Manufacturing 675,298, Machinery Manufacturing 653,733,078 Food Manufacturing 625,344,618 19
20 Ontario International Airport Exports Ontario International Airport Exports 2016 Highest Exports From Ontario International Airport 25 Exports (Millions of Dollars) Exports (Millions of Dollars) Total Partner Countries Source: WISER 0 UK Mexico Germany Hong Kong 20
21 Foreign Investment FOE by Source Nation (2016) San Bernardino % of all FOE Country Jobs Jobs Firms Japan Canada France Germany UK Mexico Sweden Switzerland Australia Ireland All Others FOE by Source Nation (2016) Riverside % of all FOE Country Jobs Jobs Firms Germany Japan UK Switzerland Canada Sweden Spain Ireland France Belgium All Others
22 What Industries FOEs by Industry Sector (2016) Sector Jobs Firms Total Natural Resources Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp., Warehousing, Utilities Information Financial Activities Prof/Business Serv Education/Health Care Leisure/Hospitality Other Services Public Administration FOEs by Industry Sector (2016) Sector Jobs Firms Total Natural Resources Construction 46 5 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp., Warehousing, Utilities Information Financial Activities Prof/Business Serv Education/Health Care Leisure/Hospitality Other Services Public Administration
23 International Migration to the IE International Migrant Population Total: 972, , ,117 Mexico 565, , ,060 El Salvador 34,449 15,617 18,832 Guatemala 24,509 12,613 11,896 South America 25,567 13,896 11,671 South Eastern Asia 111,418 56,682 54,736 China 39,903 10,595 29,308 Korea 15,197 9,488 5,709 Philippines 67,031 31,188 35,843 Vietnam 22,062 12,378 9,684 India 14,091 7,361 6,730 Europe 40,418 39, Canada 14,555 13, Africa 17,515 6,919 10,596 Total Migrants Source: ACS 23
24 24
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