North Korea s Threat to Global Security

Transcription

1 North Korea s Threat to Global Security Contemporary Security Council Overview In recent months North Korea, or the Democratic People s Republic of Korea (DPRK), has accelerated the success of their nuclear program. With a few recent tests in 2017 risking the security of many in the international community, there is a question of what exactly can be done about North Korea. Although North Korea has been hit hard with sanctions, both from the United Nations and from individual countries, they have continued their program. This reclusive nation is infamous for their aggressive rhetoric and remain a potential threat to the international community. With limited access into the country and heavily censored information coming out of the hermit kingdom, the international community is often left in the dark when trying to separate fact from propaganda. In one of their latest tests, North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb, one fifty times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The DPRK also acts in a hostile nature toward its neighbors, specifically South Korea (or the Republic of Korea/the RoK), China, and Japan. North Korea has also been accused of selling weapons or weapons materials to other rogue nations or non-state actors. The threat that North Korea could pose to global security warrants international response. Historical Background The history of civilization on the Korean Peninsula is thousands of years old, and was referred to as the hermit kingdom as they remained isolated from and resisted European interests in the sixteenth century. By the mid-nineteenth century, the leaders of the Korean peninsula signed treaties with Europe, leading to the exploitation of Koreans and their resources. In 1910, Japan annexed much of the peninsula as a part of their imperialism of Manchuria and the surrounding areas. For the next 35 years, Korean culture was destroyed and replaced by the superior Japanese culture. The Korean people suffered greatly under the control of the Japanese in the form of forced labor during World War II. Following the end of the war, the United States took control of the southern portion of Korea while the Soviet Union took control of the North, divided at the 38 th parallel. In 1950, tensions between the Communist-influenced North and the democratic South erupted into a fullscale war when the former invaded the latter. The Korean War, as it came to be known, lasted for three years. An armistice was signed on July 27, 1953, ceasing the hostilities momentarily and continuing the 38 th parallel as the dividing line between the North and the South.Technically, the Korean War is still occurring today as no official treaty was signed to end the war.

2 Since the Korean War, North Korea has been run by one family (the Kim family) in a dynastic rule. Kim Il-Sung ruled from 1948 until his death in North Korea has been indoctrinated into a cult-like following regarding the late leader, whose various nicknames included Great Leader, Heavenly Leader, and even The Sun. Kim Jong-Il, son of Kim Il- Sung, became supreme leader in 1994 and ruled until his death in The current supreme leader of the DPRK and Chairman of the Workers Party of Korea is Kim Jong-un. North Korea has historically been reclusive in their social, political and economic dealings with the world. Their only modern, semi-consistent ally is China, based on trade relations. However, China has recently begun to pull away from North Korea as their antics have affected Chinese trade negatively, and as a result, Russia is once again currying favor to the DPRK. The first nuclear test occurred in 2006 which violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a treaty that the DPRK had claimed to support. This led to the first round of sanctioning from the UN. In 2007, North Korea agreed to shut down their nuclear reactor in exchange for desperately needed humanitarian aid valued at $400 million USD. Things seemed to be moving in the right direction when, in 2008, North Korea destroyed a water cooling tower at their main nuclear test site, prompting the United States to remove North Korea from their list of states that sponsor terrorism. However, in 2009, North Korea announced that they had successfully completed their second nuclear test, prompting new sanctions from the UN Security Council. (For more information about specific resolutions, please see the section below entitled UN Resolution. ) In 2013, the third test was carried out, the first under new leader Kim Jong-un. This was followed a few years later by an announcement in 2015, where North Korea stated that they had both the capability to miniaturize nuclear weapons and place them on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and had developed a hydrogen bomb. These claims received heavy skepticism from the international community with many doubting these claims. If North Korea were to possess a hydrogen bomb, it would upset the current balance of power in the Pacific. In addition, possessing a hydrogen bomb would potentially solidify the reign of the Kim family in North Korea. Some world leaders and top military analysts have called for the removal of the Kim family from power in North Korea. However, if the DPRK do possess a hydrogen bomb as well as have the capability to detonate it at will, it is unlikely that military force will be used to remove them from power as the human cost could be enormous. North Korea has also vowed to wipe South Korea off the map. With 50 million people, the destruction of the Republic of Korea would be a loss of unfathomable proportions. If North Korea were to have such a powerful and devastating weapon, they would potentially be able to further ignore any sanction or threatening declaration from the rest of the world. Sources/For more information see:

3 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is the most significant international treaty whose intention is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, their technology, and the materials needed to create them. It also aims to promote cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, for medical and energy usage. This is the only internationally binding document in the goal of disarmament by nuclear weapons holding states. The treaty was drafted in 1965 and put into place in On May 11 th, 1995, the treaty was indefinitely extended. 191 states have joined the treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states of China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, and the United States. These five are the only ones designated by the NPT as being allowed to possess these types of weapons. Other states who possess or are suspected to possess nuclear weapons include India, North Korea, and Pakistan. As per NATO treaties, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey are nuclear weapons sharing states. The NPT has established a safeguards system under the responsibility of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) used to verify compliance with the NPT. The treaty, under Article IV, states that nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Thus, the NPT makes allowances for nations to develop nuclear energy peacefully. The treaty also makes allowances for nations to withdraw from the NPT, as seen in Article X: Each Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country. This offers an explanation as to why North Korea withdrew from the treaty on January 10 th, 2003, as they believed that the rest of the world was actively conspiring against them. The influence of the NPT is wide reaching. However, many have doubted its ability to adequately govern the world s nuclear arsenal, as states can just withdraw when they no longer desire to follow the NPT s rules. For more information, please see this United Nations article on the NPT:

4 Six Party Talks The Six Party talks, which launched in 2003, have been some of the most successful avenues to creating lasting peace in the area. Prior to these talks, North Korea and the U.S. implemented the 1994 Agreed Framework in which North Korea agreed to halt their nuclear program in exchange for energy assistance. The group is composed of China, the United States, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, and the Russian Federation. The group has met several times since its founding. However, the last meeting took place back in 2009 and was halted when North Korea walked out during negotiations over their uranium enrichment capabilities. The first round of the talks took place in late August of In this foundational conference, the DPRK called for a non-aggression pact from the United States, which was promptly refused unless North Korea dismantled their nuclear program. The second round took place in late February 2004, and was called to attention by China. Prior to the second meeting, South Korea, Japan, and the United States held their own separate meeting to strategize before meeting with North Korea again. During this preliminary meeting the United States decided that the DPRK would have to declare their clear desire to complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of their nuclear programs. This evolved into the policy followed by the United States, the CVID. The second round resulted in an unusual declaration from North Korea, in which they offered to dismantle their nuclear weapons program but that they would not halt their peaceful nuclear programs. This was supported by China and Russia, but refuted by South Korea, Japan, and the United States. The third round of talks took place on June 23 rd, This round featured a plan for dismantling the DPRK s nuclear weapons programs which included a three-month grace period to allow North Korea to halt their weapons development. The fourth round of talks took place almost a year later, following uncertainty after the 2004 presidential elections in the United States. In February of 2005, North Korea announced that they were, in fact, in possession of nuclear weapons and that they would no longer attend the Six-Party Talks. In their statement, the North Korean delegation accused the United States of attempting to overthrow their government and they refused any further debate until the U.S. negotiator was switched. North Korea only returned to the debates once the United States declared North Korea to be a sovereign nation and that they had no intention to invade them. These were the longest of the meetings, lasting nearly two weeks, and resulted in the most significant breakthrough. North Korea committed itself to halting all existing nuclear programs, to returning to the NPT, and accepting the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors in exchange for food aid. The fifth round of talks began on November 9 th, 2005 and lasted only three days. The results of the previous talks were discussed; however, no real debate took place. The United States placed new sanctions on North Korea and its economic allies, drawing heavy criticism from Pyongyang, the DPRK s capital. As a result, North Korea boycotted the Six-Party Talks and conducted multiple missile tests in July 2006, followed by their first nuclear test on October

5 9 th, This led the UN Security Council to pass resolution 1718 on October 14 th which required North Korea to halt all nuclear weapon testing, to abandon their weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missile programs, and to rejoin the Six-Party Talks. In February 2007, North Korea committed themselves to shut down and close off the Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for Japan and the U.S. to provide oil to compensate North Korea for their lost energy production. The sixth (and final) round of talks took place in June Three concluding steps were decided on in which North Korea would address their nuclear program. The steps included a declaration provided by North Korea regarding their plutonium production, a publication of a bill of particulars published by Washington detailing their suspicions of the North Korean uranium-enrichment program, and a North Korean understanding of the US concerns. It was during this round that the North Korean delegation walked out of the meeting. For more detailed information, please see this full article on the Six-Party Talks: Current Situation/Recent Developments In 2017, North Korea has continued to aggressively push their pro-nuclear and ballistic missile program. On May 14 th, North Korea tested a new ballistic missile that landed in the Sea of Japan. This prompted condemnation from South Korea as Moon Jae-in s, President of the RoK s, administration has felt immense pressure because of the testing. The test also drew criticism from Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe. With some estimates of the DPRK possessing over 1,000 of these new ballistic missiles, many in the area fear for their safety. Many countries, including the United States, have continued to put pressure on Kim Jong-un. Rex Tillerson, the Secretary of State of the United States, has stated that the only objective in terms of reducing the North Korean threat is to pursue a denuclearized North Korea. In the summer of 2017, there were rumors and reports that the DPRK was preparing for a new round of nuclear tests. (This was determined by satellite imagery that indicated that one of their main reactor sites had been configured in a test mode configuration.) In response, the United States has accelerated the deployment of an anti-missile system in South Korea, meant to deter any missiles launched at the southern part of the shared peninsula, not unlike Israel s Iron Dome system. North Korea has also been accused of launching a ransomware attack that affected over 300,000 computers in May Ransomware is a style of computer virus that locks up your computer unless you pay the hackers a certain fee. It may also threaten to release personal information or private photos unless the amount is paid. The attackers originate in North Korea and launched a sloppy attack, which is what allowed top cyber security experts to track the attack back to the DPRK. For more information, see:

6 Updates as of September 19th, 2017 On September 3rd, 2017, in defiance of the international community and numerous treaties, North Korea conducted a sixth nuclear weapons test, claiming that they had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. Based on seismographic evidence, this was the largest test to date. Although many experts dispute North Korea s claim of a hydrogen bomb, the international community grows uneasy as their nuclear program spirals out of control. For more information on this rapidly evolving situation please reference the articles below, one from the BBC, one explaining the science behind the test, and one explaining the magnitude of the explosion. You should also remain abreast of trustworthy news sources as the situation may likely change before the conference. For further recent information, see: Involved Actors North Korea- The reclusive hermit nation which is dynastically ruled by the Kim family and continues to develop nuclear weapons despite international condemnation and law. The current supreme leader is Kim Jong-un. South Korea- Following the Korean War and the division at the 38 th Parallel, the southern part of the Korean peninsula came under the influence of the United States, leading to capitalistic and democratic practices. In recent years, the Republic of Korea (South Korea s official name) enjoys a prosperous economy and a robust middle class. The nation is wary of their aggressive neighbors to the north. All men must serve in the Korean Army for at least two years. Furthermore, North Korea and South Korea are still technically at war with one another following the 1953 cease fire agreement which did not formally end the hostilities of the Korean War. In the past ten years there have been several small skirmishes that have taken place between the two nations (such as artillery shelling across the border and on disputed island chains). Japan - A regional ally of South Korea and the United States. There have been many concerns surrounding the DPRK s nuclear program as several of their missiles have landed in Japan s exclusive economic zones (areas that are not technically part of Japan but are internationally recognized as falling under Japanese control). With a small army and navy, Japan would find it difficult to recover from an attack from North Korea, who despises Japan as a result of mistreatment dating back to Japan s imperial days of the early 20th century. China - North Korea s strongest ally and trading partner. The majority of the DPRK s trade is with China, exchanging iron ore for needed electronics and food aid. China supported North

7 Korea in the Korean War and holds a lot of influence over its government. However, economically-minded China is beginning to realize that siding with North Korea may be damaging to their economy and thus have begun to reconsider their 60 year alliance. United States - The U.S. fought alongside South Korea in the Korean War against the U.S.S.R. indirectly through North Korea. The U.S. has been one of the most vocal opponents of the North Korean nuclear program and has threatened military action and a nuclear response should the DPRK fire first. International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) - The IAEA is the world s regulatory nongovernmental organization (composed of a multi-national coalition) that oversees the world s nuclear arsenal. As per the terms of the NPT (see Historical Background above), the IAEA sends monitors to countries with nuclear capabilities to ensure that no weapons are being developed. IAEA monitors have been expelled from North Korea after discovering that the DPRK had removed metal caps on the reactors that prevent them from being turned on. South Korean Red Cross - The South Korean branch of the Red Cross has been responsible for many projects in South Korea in regards to distributing food aid to the average North Korean citizen. Although the international community has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds of food aid to North Korea, it is usually up to NGOs to distribute them within the country. The Red Cross has been one of the primary NGOs in the region. However, they have been expelled and then let back in to the DPRK several times over the years. For more in-depth information, read this article about the presence of NGOs in North Korea: UN Resolutions Concerning North Korea In response to the continuation of their nuclear program and the subsequent testing s, the United Nations Security Council has passed several resolutions condemning North Korea and enacting sanctions against the government and its supporters. Some of the most significant ones are as follows: S/RES/825(1993) - Urged North Korea to reconsider its withdrawal from the NPT and to oblige by their international obligations. S/RES/1695(2006) - Condemned North Korea s 2006 launch of ballistic missiles and imposed sanctions. This resolution banned all UN states from selling materials of technology for missiles or WMD to North Korea. It also called on North Korea to rejoin the Six-Party Talks. S/RES/1718(2006) - Expressed further concern over North Korea s 2006 nuclear test, imposed more sanctions, and set up the Sanctions Committee. In addition, a panel of experts was created to issue annual reports to support the Committee. The resolution imposed a complete asset and travel ban to anyone involved in the nuclear program. They also banned sales of several pieces of

8 Canisius College 39th Annual Conference military technology to North Korea. They further banned UN states from selling luxury goods to the DPRK. The Sanctions Committee s goal is to oversee the relevant sanctions measures related to North Korea. S/RES/1874(2009) - Expressed concern over North Korea s 2009 nuclear test and extended sanctions to concern all arms material and related financial transactions, training, services, and manufacturing or maintained procedures. In this resolution, they also created a Panel of Experts to help support the Sanctions Committee to make smarter and more efficient sanctions. S/RES/2087(2013) - Condemned North Korea s 2012 satellite launch and added further sanctions. S/RES/2094(2013) - Imposed sanctions after North Korea s 2013 nuclear test. It also increased the power of other nations to enforce the sanctions placed by the Sanctions Committee. S/RES/2270(2016) - Imposed Sanctions after North Korea s 2016 nuclear and ballistic missile test. The sanctions included inspection of all passing cargo to and from North Korea, prohibiting trade of all weapons within the country and additional restrictions against importing luxury goods. In addition, certain North Korean diplomats were expelled from the UN under suspicion of illicit activities. S/RES/2321(2016) - Condemned the September 9th, 2016 nuclear test and imposed further sanctions that prohibits North Korea from supplying, selling, or transferring coal, iron, and iron ore and for states to buy it from North Korea. Comprehensive list of Security Council Resolutions: Results of UN Resolutions: Although the UN has passed several resolutions, they have failed to adequately halt the North Korean nuclear program. The leadership in North Korea seems unaffected by the economic sanctions, as they continue to grow rich and live comfortable lives while the rest of the people starve. It is important to understand the economic makeup of the North, to understand how and why sanctions are failing. (See below.) Economic Overview of the DPRK The DPRK is a government-driven economy, which ranks amongst the least open and suffers often from economic disasters. The infrastructure in North Korea is nearly non-existent, as buildings, roads, and public services are underfunded and poorly maintained, making it difficult for outlying provinces to link up with the more developed industrial cities. An enormous

9 proportion of North Korea s budget is set aside for their military and nuclear programs, limiting how much is able to be spent on social services and investment into private enterprises. North Korea has endured several crop failures caused partially by weather but also due to a lack of arable land, outdated collective farming practices, poor soil quality, and shortages of tractors and fuel. Public ration distributions by the government have been insufficient to meet the needs of the malnourished population. Since 2009 international food assistance has declined significantly as North Korea is allowing some small, semi-private markets to sell a larger range of goods. China currently exists as North Korea s primary trading partner. However, as China faces more criticism for supporting the DPRK, they have begun to withdraw from the area, allowing Russia to step in and fill the void left by China. North Korea currently faces a 25% unemployment rate. An estimated 18.4 million people live without electricity in North Korea, approximately threefourths of the population. It is believed that China holds vast amounts of money for North Korea, allowing them to avoid the sanctions aimed at crippling their military. This has led the UN to consider smart sanctions as a way to put pressure on Pyongyang. Smart Sanctions For more in-depth information, please see this economic overview: The definition of a smart sanction is a targeted sanction aimed at affecting a specific person or organization as a means to coerce them to do something or to deter them from doing something. For example, a dumb or blanket sanction would be to ban all iron ore from going into North Korea so that the government cannot make weapons from it. While that would hinder their weapon production, it would also prevent North Korean citizens from using iron to make consumer goods like pots and pans. A smart or targeted sanction would be to prevent the government of North Korea and all known North Korean weapons manufacturers from buying iron ore. In this way, it becomes more difficult for the people who would use the iron ore for malicious purposes to obtain it. Smart sanctions have shown to be much more effective in achieving the desired goals of sanctions. As such, the use of smart sanctions should be considered with North Korea as a deterrence to their nuclear program. For more information about Smart Sanctions, see:

10 Questions to consider This topic guide has introduced the North Korean missile crisis by carefully analyzing the historical basis for their possession of nuclear weapons and the modern developments in the ever-changing situation. After reading the historical basis, the status, and overview of the Six- Party Talks, relevant UN Security Council documents, and information on the NPT, the delegate should now have a solid foundation in the nuances of the crisis. The following questions are offered to prompt further research about a delegate s specific country assignment so that they are prepared prior to the conference. These questions may also be used for but are NOT necessary to be completely answered in a delegate s position paper. What is the role of the Security Council in this manner? How can the Security Council proceed in rulings against North Korea when faced with opposition from China and increasingly, Russia? How can the UN Security Council encourage non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and materials, and discourage the proliferation of these things, despite North Korean intentions? Does the NPT still have relevance in the 21 st century? What is the significance of a treaty that a country has refused to sign, or has withdrawn from? If North Korea were to disarm, what incentives could the Security Council offer? Who would be responsible for their disarmament? Should it be at the international level (say, involving the UN and the IAEA), or at the regional level -- or involving NGOs? If North Korea were to disarm, would your country support a peace treaty between the North and the South? Why or why not? Further Resources Information on the NPT - Brief overview on events leading to the nuclear crisis: Six Party-Talks - North Korea (CIA World Factbook): The Korean Missile Crisis: Why Deterrence Is Still the Best Option

11 Timeline of Events North Korea joins the NPT but does not complete a safeguard agreement with the IAEA 31 December North and South Korea sign the South-North Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula 30 January North Korea concludes a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA 12 March North Korea announces its intentions to withdraw from the NPT in three months time 11 June Following talks with the U.S., North Korea suspends its decisions to withdraw from the NPT 13 June North Korea announces its withdrawal from the NPT 9 July Supreme Leader Kim Il Sung dies and is replaced by Kin Jong Il 31 August North Korea launches a rocket over Japan and claims to have successfully placed a small satellite into orbit. 16 October The U.S. announces that North Korea has admitted to having a clandestine program to enrich uranium for nuclear missiles despite internationally declaring otherwise 10 January North Korea announces its withdrawal from the NPT, claiming to have met the three-month advanced notice with their March 12, 1993 attempted withdrawal 27 August The first round of the six-party talks takes place February The second round of the six-party talks take place June The third round of the six-party talks take place 26 July The fourth round of the six- party talks take place 9-11 November The fifth round of the six-party talks take place 4-5 July North Korea test fires seven ballistic missiles 9 October North Korea conducts an underground nuclear test 8-13 February The six-party talks concludes its fifth round after several delays March The sixth round of the six-party talks begins 25 May North Korea conducts its second underground nuclear missile test 24 January North Korea threatens war with South Korea in response to Seoul s statement that it would invade North Korea if there was the threat of a nuclear strike 23 November North Korea launches artillery rounds at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong which kills two soldiers and injured seventeen others including three civilians. South Korea launches airstrikes and artillery in response. 17 December Supreme Leader Kim Jong Il dies; is succeeded by his son, Kim Jong Un 12 February North Korea conducts a third underground nuclear test estimated at 6-7 kilotons in power 8 March China declares a red line on North Korea, saying it will not permit war or chaos on the Korean peninsula and that the only path to peace must come through denuclearization 6 January North Korea announces a fourth nuclear weapons test, claiming to have detonated a hydrogen bomb. Some experts doubt this claim based on seismic readings from the test site. Link to the comprehensive timeline -