NORTH KOREA S ARMAMENT

Transcription

1 NORTH KOREA S ARMAMENT

2 Forum: Security Council Issue: North Korea s armament Student Officer: Kaya Çolakoğlu & Ece Gülerrman Position: Vice President 1)Introduction a) Introduction The past 6 months saw increasing tensions in the Korean peninsula, following the Democratic People s Republic of Korea s (will be referred as DPRK, NK, or North Korea) development of longrange guided missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The development and testing of such missiles sparked tense exchanges of angry rhetoric between the governments of DPRK and United States & neighbouring countries including South Korea, China, and Japan. North Korea has stated both to the United Nations and it s own state media that it s nuclear programme aimed for selfdefense from imperialist intervention, while the United States accused North Korea of creating chaos and preventing peace both in the region and in the World. North Korea saw detoriating relations with it s closest ally China after it s announcements regarding it s nuclear programme, and have been imposed sanctions by the United Nations Security Council and other countries. North Korea s development of nuclear armament is greatly regarded nowadays in the diplomatic realm and the world of global affairs as a problem that needs to be addressed. The hardships that make this issue one of the hardest ones to tackle in the 21st century will be further mentioned in this report to allow the delegates to fully prepare for the debate. b) Definition of Key Terms Nonproliferation: the effort to stop the increase in nuclear weapons NPT: the Non-Proliferation Treaty is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology to promote peaceful uses. DPRK: Democratic People s Republic of Korea Pyongyang: the capital and largest city of the Democratic People s Republic of Korea

3 Six Party Talks: involved China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the US. They had got North Korea to pledge to abandon all nuclear weaponry and have attempted to control the nuclear weapons in North Korea. 2) Body i. Historical Background / Summary of the Issue at Hand Through the end of the Second World War, in 1945, Japanese dominion in the Korean peninsula ended with the Soviet and American forces occupying the North and the South of the peninsula respectively. Through Soviet backing, communists and socialists rose to and consolidated power in the North, establishing the first communist party, the Korean Workers Party. Korean Workers Party was led by a specific Korean educated and trained by the Red Army of the Soviet Union, Kim Il-Sung. Two years later, the Korean Workers Party declared the Democratic People s Republic of Korea, led by Kim Il-Sung. The Soviet Troops withdrew after the declaration, and this was followed by the South declaring it s own independence, which started the North Korean invasion, resulting in the infamous Korean War. The Korean War ceased active conflict in the peninsula (however, the two countries are still technically at war, as no peace treaty was signed between the two). The end of active conflict was followed by a process known as The Miracle on the Han River, during which South Korea experienced an economic boom and flourished into a developed country. The next twenty years witnessed a thaw of ices between the two countries, and one of the most significant development was North Korea s commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, in which the country pledged to not pursue any nuclear programme. Finally, in 1991, North and South Korea joined the United Nations.

4 Two years after admission to the United Nations, a subagency of UN, known as International Atomic Energy Agency accused North Korea of breaching the aforementioned treaty, and demanded from the UN for inspection into North Korea s nuclear waste sites, which resulted in North Korea threatening to abandon the treaty. This was a very significant event, as it saw for the first time, North Korea at odds with the international community. The same year, North Korea test fired a ballistic missile, Rodong, into the Sea of Japan, sparking questions into the nuclear capability of the country. The following year, the ruler of the country for nearly 5 decades, Kim Il-sung passed away, succeeding the throne to his son, Kim Jong-il. Kim Jong-il s first major international action was to sign a framework deal with the United States, agreeing to freeze it s nuclear programme, in return for receiving major aid from the US in the energy field. No nuclear activity on North Korean soil is undertaken and the conflict appears to have been solved, until the 1996 famines. The famines struck North Korea, following large floods, and resulted in the deaths of over 3 million North Koreans from starvation. In midst of a deep crisis, North Korea announced that it no longer recognised the armistice that brought about the end of active conflict in the peninsula, and placed thousands of soldiers into the Demilitarised Zone between the two countries. In late 1996, a North Korean submarine emerged next to a South Korean town. The submarine is sunk by South Korea, and all aboard, including 17 South Korean citizens are killed. This marks the first military aggression since the end of the war in Two years after the aggression, North Korea shocked the World by launching a multistage rocket which flew over Japan into the Pacific Ocean, exposing North Korea s unknown capacity. While North Korea continued to work on their nuclear programme in the coming century, winds of deep change blew strongly in the West. The Twin Tower attacks conducted by al-qaeda whipped up an entirely new front in the Middle East, and changed foreign policies all around the World, and most notably in the United States, marked by President George W. Bush s remark labelling North Korea, Iraq and Iran the axis of evil. The same year in October, South and North Korean forces opened naval fire against each other, resulting in the deaths of 30 North Koreans and 4 South Koreans. In December, North Korea shockingly announced the continuation of it s nuclear programme, expelling UN inspectors. One month later, North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty. Nuclear activity accelerated after it s withdrawal.

5 In February 2005, the DPRK government announced for the first time that it possesses nuclear weapons that itself has produced. About a year after this announcement, North Korea tested it s first nuclear weapon underground. The United Nations Security Council decided to impose economic sanctions following this test. During these years, North Korea reached several agreements aiming to reduce or halt it s programme in return for food and/or aid, but all have proved to be insufficient. In 2009, the Security Council condemns North Korea for trying to test long-range rockets. The following 5 years get plagued by North Korean test trials of nuclear bombs, and launching of satellites containing rockets. All tests and trials conducted by North Korea were followed by new, fresh United Nations sanctions. The fresh escalation of tensions in 2017 started with Kim Jong-Un, the Supreme Leader of North Korea, announcing that they were in the final stages of developing ballistic missiles capable of crossing the Pacific Ocean. 4 months later, North Korea is warned by the United States regarding the mentioned ballistic missiles. Suggestions of military intervention is made by several members of the US Congress. Finally, upon months of exchange of angry rhetoric between North Korea, US and neighbouring countries, this issue is brought to the consideration of the United Nations Security Council. In January 2013, North Korea withdrew from the NPT after detonating its first successful locally developed nuclear bomb. This has led to a unilateral denouncement of North Korea by the UN, eventually leading to sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, most recently by the Resolution 2270, supported by all the Security Council members.

6 i) Major Parties Involved and Their Views, Their Previous Attempts to Solve the Issue 1. Democratic People s Republic of Korea North Korea has pursued a nuclear programme since the last 3 decades, with the programme becoming official as of this new century. Within the extent of this nuclear programme, North Korea has developed several nuclear weapons that can be considered WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction),varying from nuclear warheads placed on small, medium, and long-range missiles and rockets, to satellites equipped with rockets, bestowing North Korea to reach distances as long as Japan (according to UN estimates), or across Pacific (according to DPRK claims). With capabilities this large, North Korea has several explanations as to why they are continuing to pursue their nuclear programme. First off, they mention of the extensive US military presence in the peninsula (on the South Side), and they accuse the United States of aiming to overthrow the state in North Korea. Their defence largely relies on self-defence. North Korea also accuses Japan and South Korea of breaching their national waters, and they have detained numerous Japanese and South Korean vessels because of this reason. Mr Kim does not personally hold any specific views on the issue, but some North Korean officials believe the issue should not be solved at all, while

7 some others believe the programme can stop if American troops and military pull out of the Korean peninsula, as well as some believing that the issue can only be solved by external economic support (i.e. aids). 2. United States of America The United States holds the view that North Korea s development of nuclear weaponry is a threat to peace and security in the region, and in the World as a whole. Recent claims suggesting that a North Korean missile could cross the Pacific to reach the US has also further disturbed the American government. In 2009, US President Barack Obama presided over a meeting of the UN Security Council aiming to address nuclear non-proliferation, a meeting directly pointed towards DPRK. In 2010, the US delegation lobbied for the successful acceptance of resolution S/RES/1928, aiming to designate a panel of experts looking into the issue at hand. In 2013, the US delegation lobbied successfully and brought forward the resolution S/RES/ 2087, which condemned North Korea on their rocket launch. Every year since 2013, United States of America lobbied successfully and brought forward resolutions condemning and exposing sanctions on North Korea. Following the January announcement of Kim Jong-un regarding the nuclear capabilities of North Korea, especially in April, the United States got involved in an angry exchange of rhetoric with North Korea. The exchange was further fuelled by the voyage of a US military vessel from the Korean peninsula, remarks from Donald Trump concerning a possible military intervention, and a missile test taking place just hours after US Vice President Mike Pence visited the DMZ, the zone which separates North Korea from South. US Vice President Mike Pence have stated that in order to solve the issue, all options were on table, and that the US should pursue an era of strategic patience on North Korea. The United States s official position have exceeded sole diplomatic pressure. 3. Republic of Korea (South Korea) As the immediate neighbour and historical merger of North Korea, South Korea is deeply involved with the issue as well. The South Korean media warns of a nuclear war between these two countries, although that is not the official position of the South Korean government. Following the impeachment of South Korean president Park Geun-hye and the succession of Moon Jae-in as president, official South Korean policy shifted towards being more friendly towards North Korea.

8 The South Korean government have recently offered the North Korean government that they could hold the 2018 Winter Olympics together. After all, these two countries share a common past, folk, and culture, and peaceful reunification still remains in both of these countries constitutions. 4. China China is a historical ally of Democratic People s Republic of Korea, starting from the Korean War, when Chinese forces joined the war, fighting with the American forces. Up until 2013, China remained as the sole economic and military ally of North Korea, when high-level Chinese bureaucrats started seeing China as a dangerous, reckless associate that had no benefit to Chinese interests. In 2013, China passed a law banning the export of any material that could help North Korea develop nuclear weaponry. China maintained a careful policy ever since, and China is vital in preventing a possible war in the peninsula, because of China s policies concerning territorial integrity, and it s given importance to peace at it s borders. Also, a potential war North Korea may be involved with may cause a large influx of refugees coming to China. 5. Japan Japan, the historical dominatrix of the Korean peninsula, has remained at odds with both of Koreas since the end of World War 2. Although it shares diplomatic missions with South Korea, Japan feels alarmed by North Korea and it s nuclear programme. Japan is important in this issue, because it shares similar positions with the United States of America, and would be active in a possible conflict. 6. Russian Federation Another historical figure in the North Korean stage Russia abides by a simple rule that it should not be interfered with country's internal issues in anyway. In other words, the country would veto anything even remotely suggesting a military operation within the borders of DPRK. After North Korea detonated another nuclear weapon on 25 May 2009 the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a sharp note of condemnation; the announcement called the test an "infringement" of past Security Council resolutions and a "crucial blow" to the nonproliferation restraint administration. It additionally pointed that "the most recent DPRK moves are inciting an acceleration of tension in Northeast Asia." On March 2016, after the January 2016 North Korean atomic test, Russia upheld a U.N. Security Council resolution in regards to the presentation of further endorses against North Korea. Russian presidential secretary Dmitry Peskov said "the Kremlin is worried over North

9 Korea's announcements about its preparation to utilize atomic powers and urges all states to show restriction. 7. United Nations Security Council and Secretariat The United Nations Security Council, in the past 4 years, have consistently voted unanimously to condemn and put sanctions on North Korea regarding their nuclear programme. The Security Council as a whole does believe that North Korea poses a threat to peace and security in the region and in the world, and shares the belief that some action must be taken. What the Security Council differs on, is how strong of an action should be taken. Some P5 members such as China and Russia, who may be directly affected by a conflict, would prefer softer actions such as condemning and putting forward economical sanctions. Other P5 members such as the United States may prefer harsher actions, including monitoring and tight control in the region. The P5 members, UK and France, which are not directly involved with the issue, may prefer to follow the suit of their allies. The Secretariat, shares exact views with the Security Council. However, because of the professional and neutral status of The Secretariat, it is likely to suggest talks and discourage any harsh actions. b) Timeline of Key Events: October 1994 the U.S. and North Korea Sign Pact August 2003 September 2005 October 2006 October 2006 December 2009 May 2009 June 2009 November 2012 December 2012 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 Six-Nation Talks Begin North Korea Says It Will Abandon Nuclear Efforts First Nuclear Test Six-Nation Talks Resume Six-Party Talks Collapse Second Nuclear Test New U.N. Sanctions North Korea shells South Korean Island Successful Rocket Launching A Third Nuclear Test U.N. Council Orders More Sanctions North Korea Threatens to Restart Nuclear Reactor

10 August 2013 March 2014 November 2014 January 2016 September 2016 March 2017 Study Suggests North Korea Is Doubling Area Devoted to Uranium Enrichment North and South Korea exchange fire North Korea threatens to conduct Nuclear Tests North Korea conducts its fourth nuclear test. Although the government claims it to be its first hydrogen bomb, the claim was met with significant skepticism. North Korea conducts its fifth underground nuclear test. With an estimate yield of over 10kt, it would make it the most powerful North Korean nuclear test thus far. North Korea launched four ballistic missiles, three of which landed 200 miles off Japan s coastline. c) Conventions and Treaties: UN Involvement, Relevant Resolutions, Treaties and Events Concerning the areas of nuclear nonproliferation the United Nations has issued various resolutions and several conventions related to the DPRK. Included among these are: " Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons " UN Security Council Resolution 1718, and the subsequent 1718 Sanctions Committee ( S/RES/ 1718 ) " UN Security Council Resolution 1874 ( S/RES/1874 ), UN Security Council Resolution 2087 ( S/ RES/2087 ), UN Security Council Resolution 2094 ( S/RES/2094 ), UN Security Council Resolution 2270 ( S/RES/2270 ) " Multilateral Six-Party Talks from 2003 to 2009 North Korea s Military and Armament Despite economic difficulties, North Korea possesses one of the strongest militaries in the World. It has a staggering 1.2 million military service members, holds 3500 battle tanks, 72 submarines (the largest submarine fleet in the World), 302 helicopters, 563 combat aircrafts and 21 thousand artillery pieces.

11 However, most important part of the DPRK armament at hand is North Korea s nuclear capabilities. North Korea possesses about a thousand missiles of varying ranges. North Korea s missiles can reach South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and most importantly, across the Pacific Ocean, the United States of America. However, not all these missiles can be equipped with nuclear warheads. Nuclear warheads is what the Security Council is mainly concerned about, as they are considered MADs, while missiles are not. North Korea is capable of launching missiles equipped with nuclear warheads to distances ranging from South Korea to Japan, and while it claims that it can hit the United States with a warhead, it is very likely that they do not possess such technology at the moment. However, experts estimate that North Korea, with an unconstrained nuclear programme, will be able to produce such missiles in a maximum of 6 years. North Korea also possesses 2500 to 5000 tons of chemical weaponry, and South Korea also claims that they are capable of producing biological pathogens such as anthrax and smallpox. 3) Conclusion a) Previous Attempts to Resolve the Issue With respect to issue of the DPRK's nuclear weapons program, the most noteworthy attempt by the international community to date is the Six-Party Talks between the DPRK and the People's Republic of China, the United States of America, Japan, Republic of Korea, and the Russian Federation. Various rounds of talks have happened amid the main decade of the 21st century, with some joint proclamations and plans for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula being made. Because of tense relations between the gatherings, the Six-Party talks at last fell through in 2009 after a satellite dispatch by the DPRK. Be that as it may, the DPRK has expressed enthusiasm for the resumption of the Six-Party talks as a byproduct of outside guide and special conditions. The IAEA has likewise made various attempts to examine the current nuclear weapons program of the DPRK, yet has not made a huge progress yet.

12 b) Possible Solutions One thing that is very clear to nations of the Security Council, and present in all their official policies, is that any solution concerning a military intervention should only be considered as the very last resort, or not at all, and the situation is very far from devoting a solution to such last resorts. Delegates should consider that any aggressive solution brought forward to the Security Council may prompt further complications. The North Korean government holds policies that may turn into solid, harmful actions because of such further complications. While developing a solution, delegates must consider the military weight of North Korea, and mind the negative consequences to the region if a conflict were to whip up. If any solid action were to be taken on the issue, that would include a mediator. Mediators in such divided areas have proven to be historically effective. Mediators can be NGOs, key peoples, and in some cases, policies, resolutions, or frameworks. Delegates should consider demands by North Korea, whether they are acceptable or not, and definitely include different viewpoints when forming a final solution. In other terms, delegates should dilute the debate by also encouraging countries that hold close diplomatic relations with North Korea. Such dilution will ensure that the solutions formed will be solid, and will not turn into dust in the years to come. Reinstating the 6 Party Talks is also a factor that the delegates can use in order to ease the current nuclear tension. With the help of aforementioned diplomatic mediators the reentrance of UN personnel to the country in other to supervise the usage of atomic energy could be done. Chair s Notes Selected for further reading; / AR html 8.

13 Bibliography 1. Reuters. "Can the U.S. and China get North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons?" Newsweek. N.p., 24 June Web. 14 July Hansen, Nelson E. "North Korean-Iranian Cooperation in Ballistic Missile Development." Assessment of the Nuclear Programs of Iran and North Korea (2013): Web. 3. INSTITUTE, STRATEGIC STUDIES. PINKSTON, DANIEL A. NORTH KOREAN BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM. S.l.: LULU COM, Print. 4. "North Korea country profile." BBC News. BBC, 08 Mar Web. 14 July "North Korea profile - Overview." BBC News. BBC, 06 May Web. 14 July "North Korea's Military Capabilities." Council on Foreign Relations. Council on Foreign Relations, n.d. Web. 14 July Westcott, Ben. "North Korea marks anniversary with massive artillery drill." CNN. Cable News Network, 25 Apr Web. 14 July 2017.