What Voters Want From Brexit. Guy Goodwin Chief Executive, National Centre for Social Research

Transcription

1 What Voters Want From Brexit Guy Goodwin Chief Executive, National Centre for Social Research 30 March 2017

2 Context

3 Welsh support for the EU Extent of Euroscepticism in Britain 31% 47% 38% 46% 41% 44% 31% 25% 24% 22% Wales South E+W Midlands N + NW + Yorks and Humber 16% Greater London Scotland Stay EU and reduce powers To leave the European Union 2 Source: NatCen British Social Attitudes survey 2015

4 Welsh views on immigration Immigration to Britain should be reduced a lot % 63% 59% 58% 47% 37% Wales E and W Midland N + NW + Yorks and Humber South Scotland Greater London 3 Source: NatCen British Social Attitudes survey 2013

5 What does Britain want from Brexit?

6 The Data Respondents to NatCen s 2015 or 2016 British Social Attitudes Survey, an annual face to face random probability survey, who have agreed to do short followup surveys by internet/phone Survey sent to 3,872 people; 2,322 successfully interviewed between 2 February and 5 March Data weighted to reflect population profile and known differential drop-out Recall EU referendum vote: Leave ; Remain 5

7 Hard Brexit Items Requiring people from the EU who want to come to live here to apply to do so in the same way as people from outside the EU Requiring people from Britain who want to live and work in a EU country to apply to do so in the same way as anybody else from outside the EU has to do. No longer allowing migrants from other EU countries to claim any welfare benefits in Britain Reintroducing customs checks on people and goods coming to Britain from the EU No longer requiring farmers in Britain to follow EU regulations on the use of pesticides No longer allowing people from Britain who are visiting a EU country to get health treatment for free Ending the ability of the EU to determine the minimum level of annual leave to which workers in Britain are entitled 6

8 On Immigration and Borders % 68% 65% 15% 15% 16% 15% New Expats Customs Check New EU Migrants Migrant Welfare In Favour Against 7

9 But on Other Hard Matters 45% 37% 41% 35% 37% 29% Annual Leave No Free Health Pesticide Regulation In Favour Against 8

10 Soft Brexit Items Allowing banks located in EU countries to provide services to people living in Britain while allowing British banks to provide services to people living in the EU Allowing companies based in the EU to sell goods and services freely in Britain in return for allowing British companies to sell goods and services freely in the EU Requiring British-owned airlines to follow EU rules that require them to pay compensation to passengers who have been seriously delayed Britain continuing to follow EU regulations which set minimum standards for the quality of the water at beaches where people swim Britain continuing to participate in EU programmes for funding cross-national university research Requiring British mobile phone companies to follow EU regulations that limit what they can charge customers for calls made abroad 9

11 Mostly Popular % % 71% 68% 67% 65% 3% 9% 9% 8% 9% 7% Free Trade Bathing Water Mobile Charges Airline Delays University Research Bank Passporting In Favour Against 10

12 Are Attitudes Stable? % in favour % % 65% 71% 74% 69% 68% Free Trade Bank Passporting Customs Checks New EU migrants Sept. 16 Feb Source: NatCen Mixed Mode Panel Sept. 16 and Feb. 17

13 Leave and Remain on Immigration and Borders % in favour % 86% 82% 77% % 54% 58% 51% New Expats Customs Check New EU Migrants Migrant Welfare Remain Leave 12

14 Leave and Remain on Soft Issues % in favour % 88% 83% 8 77% 8 67% 67% 64% 54% Free Trade Bathing Water Mobile Charges Airline Delays University Research 72% 62% Bank Passporting Remain Leave 13

15 The Partisan Divide - 1 % in favour % 8 56% 56% 46% 93% 84% 72% 61% New Expats New EU Migrants Migrant Welfare Free Trade Bank Passorting Con Lab 14

16 The Possible Trade-Off It has been argued that when Britain leaves the EU, British firms will only be allowed to continue to sell goods and services freely to people in the EU if people from the EU are still free to come here to live and work. Do you think Britain should or should not allow people from the EU to freely come here to live and work in return for allowing British firms to sell goods and services freely in the EU. Definitely should allow people from the EU to come here to live and work Probably should allow people from the EU to come here to live and work Probably should not allow people from the EU to come here to live and work Definitely should not allow people from the EU to come here to live and work

17 The Possible Trade-Off % 24% 28% 29% 22% 21% 22% Should Feb Should Not Feb - Should Sept Should Not Sept Definitely Probably 16 Source: NatCen Mixed Mode Panel Sept. 16 and Feb. 17

18 A More Divided Set of Supporters? % 31% 24% 31% 32% 24% 12% 12% Con Should Con Should Not - Lab Should Lab Should Not 17 Definitely Probably

19 Budgetary Matters - 1 Which of the following comes closest to your view about Britain making payments into the EU Budget once it leaves the EU? Britain should not make any payments into the EU Budget Britain should only make payments for specific EU programmes, such as university student exchanges or grants for small businesses, in which it decides to participate Britain should make a regular payment into the general EU Budget 18

20 Budgetary Matters % 6 55% 42% 18% 13% 3% No Payments Only Specific Regular Payments Remain Leave 19

21 Conclusion Most voters, including at least half of Remain voters, want an end to freedom of movement But most voters, including most Leave voters, back free trade (incl. bank passporting) While on matters of consumer protection or health (though less so, employment) there is considerable support for the status quo Con voters are especially likely to support both immigration control and free trade, and they are also most divided on which is the more important Failure to deliver both could lead to disappointment 20

22 Contact Guy Goodwin Chief Executive E. Visit us online, natcen.org.uk