Fear, anger and enthusiasm about the EU: Effects of emotional reactions on public preferences towards European integration
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1 Fear, anger and enthusiasm about the EU: Effects of emotional reactions on public preferences towards European integration Sofia Vasilopoulou, University of York Markus Wagner, University of Vienna
2 What explains public preferences towards European integration? Three key theories Cue-taking Utilitarianism Identity Our focus: The role of emotions
3 Our model Information about EU integration Emotional reactions H3 H2 Evaluation of EU integration H1 Support for EU integration
4 Distinct emotions & behavioural consequences Anger Activates approach/disposition system Low risk estimates Risk removal Confident and aggressive responses Reliance on instinctive/habitual routines à less reliance on information Fear Activates avoidance/surveillance system Risk/harm aversion, caution Uncertainty à search for information Openness to compromise Enthusiasm Positive valence but more similar to anger than to fear
5 1. Direct effects H1a: Anxious citizens are more likely to favour renegotiation than angry citizens. H1b: Angry citizens are more likely to favour leaving the EU than anxious citizens. H1c: Enthusiastic citizens are less likely to favour renegotiation or leaving the EU than anxious or angry citizens.
6 2. Indirect effects H2a: The attitudes of angry and enthusiastic citizens towards the EU are less conditional on utilitarian considerations concerning EU integration than those of anxious citizens. H2b: The attitudes of angry and enthusiastic citizens towards the EU are more conditional on affect-based considerations concerning EU integration than those of anxious citizens.
7 3. Effects on opinion uniformity H3: Angry and enthusiastic citizens opinion on European integration is likely to be more uniform across policy areas than that of anxious citizens.
8 Data and methods Cross-sectional survey conducted in the UK in April 2015 (n=3.000) Respondents recruited using online panels Representative in terms of age, gender and region DVs 1. Willingness to renegotiate EU membership 2. Decision on whether the UK should leave the EU 3. Attitude uniformity across EU policies (19 policy areas s.d.)
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10 Independent variables: Emotions Which, if any, of the following words describe your feelings about Britain's membership of the EU (choose up to four words). Angry, disgusted, uneasy, afraid, happy, hopeful, confident, proud and indifferent Fear: uneasy and/or afraid (0-1) Anger: angry and/or disgusted (0-1) Enthusiasm: happy, hopeful, confident, proud (0-1) Indifference (0-1) Interactions emotions * cost-benefit & emotions * general EU evaluation (PCA: EU trust/satisfaction with democracy/eu integration) Controls: attitude to EU integration, trust in EU, satisfaction with EU democracy, European identity; party ID (ptvs); trust in national institutions, personal and national economic evaluation, attribution of responsibility to the EU, left-right, issue attitudes, education, gender, age, frequency of following current affairs.
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12 Direct effect of emotions on attitudes
13 Moderating effect of emotions
14 Emotions and information Fearful citizens have a higher variation in opinions than angry citizens But.. Enthusiasm is associated with increased variation in opinion, and its impact is similar to that of fear Angry citizens have by far the most uniform views
15 Conclusions individuals emotional reactions to the EU matter at three stages of opinion formation Direct effect à Support for integration Moderating effect à EU cost-benefit and EU trust à support for integration Effect on information-seeking à uniformity of opinion on EU integration
16 Implications Effectiveness of campaigns depends on emotions UK Brexit referendum Success of populist/eurosceptic parties whose campaigns elicit anger
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