Flash Eurobarometer 337 TNS political &social. This document of the authors.

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1 Flash Eurobarometer Croatia and the European Union REPORT Fieldwork: November 2011 Publication: February 2012 Flash Eurobarometer TNS political &social This survey has been requested by the Directorate-General Enlargement and co- ordinated by Directorate-General Unit). for Communication (DG COMM Research and Speechwriting This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors.

2 SPECIAL EU Flash Eurobarometer CROATIA AND THE EUROPEAN UNION Conducted by TNS Political & Social at the request of the European Commission's Directorate-General Enlargement Survey co-ordinated by the Directorate-General for Communication

3 FLASH EUROBAROMETER TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 3 MAIN FINDINGS ATTITUDES OF CROATIANS TO THEIR OWN COUNTRY CROATIAN ATTITUDES TO THE EU Familiarity with the EU Perceptions of information about the EU and Croatia s accession process Awareness of facts about EU membership Attitudes towards EU membership, adopting the euro and Croatia s membership of the Schengen area Views about potential consequences of EU membership CROATIA S RELATIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES Countries visited in the past five years EU countries respondents feel closest to Support for other countries accession to the EU CHANNELS USED TO STAY INFORMED ABOUT CURRENT AFFAIRS AND THE EU Preferred method of staying informed about current affairs and frequency of use Trust in information on current affairs from local, national and international medias Sources of information about the EU CONCLUSIONS ANNEXES TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS QUESTIONNAIRE TABLES 2

4 FLASH EUROBAROMETER INTRODUCTION In February 2003, Croatia submitted its application for membership of the European Union. In June 2004 Croatia was awarded candidate country status and in October 2005 the European Union and Croatia started accession negotiations. These negotiations were concluded in June On 1 December 2011 the European Parliament approved Croatia's accession as the 28 th member of the EU. Croatia and the EU signed the accession treaty on 9 December Following the ratification procedure in all Member States and Croatia, Croatia s accession is foreseen for 1 July The objective of this Flash Eurobarometer is to measure Croatians' perceptions, views and attitudes on their country s relationship with the EU. The results of this survey should help to guide and streamline communication efforts during the final stage of the accession process before Croatia s entry into the EU in July The survey was conducted before both the vote of the European Parliament on Croatia s accession on 1 December 2011 and the Parliamentary Elections held in Croatia on 4 December The survey was also conducted before the Croatian referendum on accession held on 22 January ; however the survey has no direct link with the referendum, neither does it test voting intentions in the referendum. The fieldwork of this survey was conducted from 28 to 30 November The survey is based on 1019 randomly conducted telephone interviews (land lines and mobile phones) among a representative sample of the Croatian population above the age of 15 years. This Flash Eurobarometer was carried out by TNS Political & Social. It was carried out for the European Commission (at the request of the Directorate-General for Enlargement (DG ELARG) and coordinated by the Directorate-General for Communication ( Research and Speechwriting Unit)). 1 66,25% of the voters said "yes" to Croatia's EU accession ( 3

5 FLASH EUROBAROMETER MAIN FINDINGS The future of Croatia A large majority of Croatians enjoy living in Croatia (89%) and are confident about the country s future (78%). The prospect of EU membership seems to influence on Croatians attitudes to the future of their country. 82% of respondents who believe that Croatia should be in the EU also see Croatia s future in a positive light, compared to only 70% of those opposed to EU membership. Familiarity with the EU The level of familiarity with the EU is high in Croatia; two-thirds of Croatian respondents agreed with the statement I feel familiar with the EU (63%). Familiarity is closely linked to expectations about personal benefits from EU membership. The older the respondents, the more familiar they feel with the EU. The better their education, the more familiar respondents feel with the EU. Croatians acknowledge the EU as a factor for peace and stability in Europe. Nearly 6 out of 10 Croatian respondents agreed that the EU contributes to peace and stability in Europe (59%). Support for EU Membership Almost 6 out of 10 Croatians believe that Croatia s future should lie in the EU. 32% of respondents totally agree and 27% tend to agree that Croatia s future should be in the EU, while only 22% of respondents strongly disagreed. Support for the EU rises with age. In Croatia, members of the oldest age group (55 years or older) are the strongest supporters of both EU membership and the euro. Overall, younger people in Croatia tend to be more sceptical about a number of aspects of EU membership than the older generations. More than 4 respondents out of 10 in Croatia (41%) expect personal benefits from EU membership while only 18% think that EU membership would be personally detrimental. A large proportion of respondents said that it would be neither beneficial nor detrimental to them personally (39%). 4

6 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Overall, familiarity and the expectation of personal benefits from EU membership have the strongest influence on positive attitudes to membership. Respondents who combine familiarity with the EU with the expectation of personal gain from EU membership are most likely to be enthusiastic about EU membership generally. Support for the euro While two-thirds of respondents agreed that EU membership would improve the Croatian economy, slightly less than half agreed that the euro would be beneficial (49%). Consequences of EU membership Croatians mainly expect positive consequences from EU membership in the area of economic benefits. More than three-quarters said that it will bring more business investment and boost tourism in Croatia (both 78%) and nearly threequarters that it will help to improve the economy (66%). More than half of respondents (52%) think that jobs will not be lost because of EU membership. However, slightly more than 8 out of 10 Croatians (81%) agreed that EU membership will cause prices to increase and nearly 7 out of 10 agreed that the EU would have too much control over national policies (69%). A majority of 53% also believe that membership will have a negative effect on Croatia s agriculture and the independence of its farmers. Croatians and EU values Croatians share the values of EU citizens. Almost 7 out of 10 Croatian respondents (68%) agreed with the statement Croatians and EU citizens share the same values, such as democracy and human rights. Croatia s membership and the Schengen area 85% of respondents agreed that Croatia s participation in the Schengen Agreement, which means opening borders and freedom of movement, would be a positive development. 5

7 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Croatian support for opening Croatia s borders and for free movement within the Schengen area is very high, whether or not respondents want their country to join the EU. Two-thirds of the respondents who do not support Croatia s membership would nevertheless welcome participation in the Schengen Agreement. Information and awareness of the EU Croatians are on average well-informed about the EU in general (54%), but lack information about matters such as financial assistance before and after EU accession. Croatian women tend to be less well-informed than men about the EU in general, the accession process and financial assistance before and after EU accession. Half of the Croatians interviewed were aware of the role Member States play in the governance of the EU. More than half (56%) were aware of the fact that once Croatia is a member of the EU, Croatian citizens will have the right to elect Members of the European Parliament and that Croatia will appoint an EU Commissioner. Travelling outside Croatia Almost two-thirds of respondents (65%) reported that they had travelled outside Croatia several times in the past five years. Croatians who travel abroad predominantly visit their neighbouring countries. Financial reasons were cited as the main factor preventing Croatians from travelling outside their country. Travelling outside Croatia correlates with expectations of personal benefits from EU membership. 43% of those who have travelled abroad expect membership to benefit them, while only 17% expect membership to be detrimental for them. Countries close to Croatia The EU country that the largest proportion of Croatian respondents felt closest to is Germany (35%), followed by Slovenia (27%) and Austria (26%). Croatia s support for EU membership for other countries in the region is low. Slightly more than half of the respondents supported the accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina (51%), while all other candidate countries or potential candidates received less than 50% support. 6

8 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Croatians and the media Croatians trust information on current affairs from international media (68%) slightly more than local (65%) and national sources (63%). Overall, television is the most important channel of public information in Croatia, both for current affairs in general and information about the EU. The Internet is an effective way of reaching young respondents and students, all of whom rely on the Internet more than on television for information about both current affairs and the EU. 7

9 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 1. ATTITUDES OF CROATIANS TO THEIR OWN COUNTRY - A large majority of Croatians enjoy living in Croatia and are confident about the country s future - Almost 9 out of 10 Croatian respondents agreed with the statement I enjoy living in Croatia. Only 10% said that do not enjoy living in Croatia. Croatian women and men enjoy living in Croatia almost equally, the female approval rate being 91% compared to a male approval rate of 88%. Older people tend to enjoy living in Croatia more than young people: 94% of the 55+ age group and 91% of yearolds enjoy living in Croatia, while only 83% of year-olds do so. The youngest age group (15-24 years) is more enthusiastic about living in Croatia than year-olds, with an approval rate of 88%. Regional differences and urbanisation do not have a strong influence on whether or not respondents enjoy living in Croatia. Respondents perceptions of the future of Croatia strongly influence whether or not Croatians enjoy living in their country. 97% of respondents who are confident about the future of Croatia said that they enjoyed living in Croatia. However, only 64% of respondents who are not confident about Croatia s future enjoy living in Croatia. Respondents who think that Croatia should be in the EU enjoy living in Croatia more (93%) than respondents who think that Croatia should not be in the EU (83%). Similarly, 92% of Croatians who expect EU membership to bring them some form of personal gain enjoy living in Croatia, compared to only 80% of the respondents who do not expect personal benefits from Croatia s EU membership. 8

10 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Respondents who are familiar with the EU are more likely to enjoy living in Croatia than respondents who are not familiar with the EU: 92% of Croatians who are familiar with the EU enjoy living in Croatia, while only 86% of those who are not familiar with the EU agreed with the statement: I enjoy living in Croatia. The degree of familiarity with the EU, coupled with expectations that EU membership will bring personal benefits, accompanies positive attitudes to living in Croatia. 93% of respondents who are both familiar with the EU and believe that EU membership will bring personal benefits enjoy living in Croatia. Among those respondents who are neither familiar with the EU nor expect personal benefits from EU membership, only 76% said that they enjoy living in Croatia. 9

11 FLASH EUROBAROMETER *This variable is the combination of the variable on Familiarity with the EU and Personal gain of a future membership, i.e. for instance the sub-category familiar and beneficial are the respondents who say that they were familiar with the EU and that Croatia s membership of the EU would be beneficial etc. 10

12 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Overall, a large majority of Croatians are confident about the future of their country. Almost 8 out of 10 respondents agreed with the statement I am confident about the future of Croatia. 38% of Croatians totally agreed, and a further 40% tended to agree. Only 7% of respondents said they were not at all confident about Croatia s future. Female respondents (79%) are slightly more confident about Croatia s future than male respondents (76%). Younger respondents were less confident about Croatia s future than older respondents. The most confident age group was the 55+ year-olds, 83% of whom were confident about Croatia s future year-olds were the least confident, only 69% saying that they were confident about Croatia s future. In comparison, 75% of year-olds and 79% of year-olds agreed with the statement. The prospect of EU membership seems to accompany positive attitudes to the country s future. 82% of respondents who believe that Croatia should be in the EU also see Croatia s future in a positive light, compared to only 70% of those opposed to EU membership. Croatians who are familiar with the EU feel more confident about their country s future than Croatians who are not familiar with the EU. Among those who are familiar with the EU, 82% feel confident about Croatia s future compared to only 72% of respondents who are not familiar with the EU. A similar picture emerges when we consider the relationship between expectations of personal benefits from EU membership, the level of familiarity with the EU and attitudes towards Croatia s future. 86% of respondents who think that EU membership will be personally beneficial and who are familiar with the EU also feel confident about Croatia s future. However, only 59% of respondents who believe that EU membership will be detrimental to them and who are not familiar with the EU feel confident about Croatia s future. 11

13 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Overall, respondents confidence about Croatia s future appears to decline among respondents with lower familiarity coupled with the expectation that EU membership will be personally detrimental. *This variable is the combination of the variable on Familiarity with the EU and Personal gain of a future membership, i.e. for instance the sub-category familiar and beneficial are the respondents who say that they were familiar with the EU and that Croatia s membership of the EU would be beneficial etc. 12

14 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 2. CROATIAN ATTITUDES TO THE EU 2.1 Familiarity with the EU - Croatians feel familiar with the EU- Nearly two-thirds of Croatians agree with the statement I feel familiar with the EU (23% totally agree, 40% tend to agree). Only 36% do not feel familiar with the EU. A larger percentage of Croatian men (67%) than women (59%) feel familiar with the EU. The level of familiarity rises with age and length of full-time education. The older the respondents, the more familiar they feel with the EU. While only 57% of year-olds agree with the statement I feel familiar with the EU, 69% of the 55+ age group do so. Respondents who spent longer in full-time education tend to be more familiar with the EU. 42% of those who left school at age 15 or earlier say that they are familiar with the EU. Among the group who remained in education until the age of 16-19, the level of familiarity rises to 59%. The proportion of respondents who are familiar with the EU rises to 74% among respondents who were educated until the age of 20 or later (compared to 42% for respondents with the lowest level of education). While the majority of Croatian self-employed and white-collar respondents say that they feel familiar with the EU (69% and 64% respectively), only 40% of manual workers do so. Of those not working, 63% feel familiar with the EU. 13

15 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Whether respondents report that they live in a rural or urban location has almost no impact on familiarity with the EU (60% of respondents living in rural villages, 59% in small/mid-size towns and 61% in large towns say they feel familiar with the EU). 2 However, there are substantial regional differences. 72% of respondents living in the capital (Zagreb) say they are familiar with the EU, compared to 69% in Istra, Rijeka and Gorski Kotar, 64% in Dalmatia, 59% in Slavonia, 58% in Lika and Banovina and 55% in North Croatia. Among the respondents expecting a personal benefit from EU membership, 76% feel familiar with the EU, compared to only 50% of those who believe that EU membership will be personally detrimental. Respondents who have travelled outside Croatia are more likely to agree with the statement I feel familiar with the EU than respondents who have not done so (66% and 53% respectively). 73% of respondents who rely on information sources from the EU also feel familiar with the Union, as do those using national government information sources. The level of agreement drops to 60% among those whose information comes from TV and radio, 68% among those relying on the written press and 69% of respondents using online resources. Generally, Croatians who say that that they are well-informed about the EU are also more likely to feel familiar with the EU. 81% of all respondents who say they are wellinformed 3 about the EU also feel familiar with the EU. In contrast, 41% of respondents who said that they were not well-informed said that they feel familiar with the EU. 3 Based on the question Personally, do you think you are well informed or not about the EU? 14

16 FLASH EUROBAROMETER *Readers should keep in mind that the numbers of respondents in this category are especially low (less than 50 respondents). The results should therefore be interpreted with caution. 15

17 FLASH EUROBAROMETER - Croatians and EU citizens share the same values - Almost 7 in 10 Croatian respondents agreed that Croatians and EU citizens share the same values, such as democracy and human rights. Among those who generally agreed with the statement, 47% tended to agree, while 21% strongly agreed. Only 29% disagreed that Croatians and EU citizens share the same values, of whom 13% disagreed strongly and 16% tended to disagree. Women were more likely than men to agree that Croatian and EU citizens share the same values (70% and 65% respectively). The youngest age group (15-24 year-olds) record the highest rate of agreement with this statement (74%), compared with 62% of year-olds, 65% of year-olds and 71% of the 55+ age group. Respondents whose full-time education ended at the age of 15 or before are more likely to agree that Croatia shares common values with the EU (73%) than respondents who finished their education at the age of (62%. A still higher level of agreement was measured among respondents whose full-time education ended at age 20 or later (70%). Respondents who are still studying are the most likely (81%) to agree. Of those who thought that Croatia should be in the EU, 80% also agreed that Croatians and EU citizens share the same values, compared to only 50% of the respondents who believe that Croatia should not be in the EU. 16

18 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Respondents who felt familiar with the EU were far more likely to agree with the statement Croatians and EU citizens share the same values ( ) than those who feel unfamiliar with the EU (75% and 55% respectively). However, how well-informed respondents feel 4 has only a minor influence on attitudes to the commonality of values. Respondents who believe they are personally well-informed and those who do not are almost equally likely to agree that Croatians and EU citizens share the same values (66% and 69% respectively). Familiarity with the EU and expectations of personal gains or losses from EU membership influence attitudes to the commonality of values. Croatians who are both familiar with the EU and think that EU membership will bring a personal benefit are most likely to believe that Croatians and EU citizens share the same values (84%). In contrast, only 43% of respondents who are familiar with the EU but believe EU membership will be detrimental to them personally agree. Croatians who are not familiar with the EU but believe that EU membership will be personally beneficial generally agree that they share common values with EU citizens (73%). But only 34% of respondents who are neither familiar with the EU nor expect to benefit personally from EU membership do so. 4 Based on the question Personally, do you think you are well informed or not about the EU? 17

19 FLASH EUROBAROMETER *This variable is the combination of the variable on Familiarity with the EU and Personal gain of a future membership, i.e. for instance the sub-category familiar and beneficial are the respondents who say that they were familiar with the EU and that Croatia s membership of the EU would be beneficial etc. 18

20 FLASH EUROBAROMETER - A majority of Croatians believe that the EU contributes to peace and stability in Europe - A majority of almost 60% of Croatian respondents agree that the EU contributes to peace and stability in Europe (21% totally agree, 38% tend to agree). Of those who disagree, 22% tend to disagree and 16% strongly disagree. The gender difference is small: 57% of women agree that the EU contributes to peace and stability compared to 63% of men. (However, women answered don t know twice as often as men: 2% and 4% respectively.) The level of approval of the statement The EU contributes to peace and stability in Europe varies significantly with age. While 70% of the 55+ age group agree with the statement, only 58% of year-olds, 53% of year-olds and 49% of year-olds do so. The younger the respondent, the less likely they are to believe that the EU contributes to peace and stability in Europe. Education is also a discriminating factor. 57% of respondents who finished their fulltime education at age 15 or before or at the age of agree that the EU contributes to peace and stability in Europe. With respondents who completed their full-time education at age 20 or later, the percentage rises by 9 percentage points to 66%. However, only half of the respondents still studying believe that the EU contributes to peace and stability in Europe. Occupational differences also play a part: self-employed and white-collar respondents are more likely to agree that the EU is a factor for peace and stability (60% and 59% respectively) than manual workers (48%). Among those respondents who say that Croatia should be in the EU, 8 out of 10 agree that the EU contributes to peace and stability in Europe, compared to 3 out of 10 who believe that Croatia should not be in the EU. 19

21 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Respondents who say they are well-informed about the EU are more likely to see the EU as a factor for peace and stability (64%) than their counterparts who do not feel well-informed (54%). In addition, Croatians are twice as likely to regard the EU as a factor for peace and stability if they are familiar with the EU (74%) than if they are not (39%). There appears to be a strong link between the level of familiarity with the EU, expectations of personal gains or losses from EU membership and respondents attitudes to the EU as a factor for peace and stability in Europe. 87% of the respondents who believe that EU membership will be personally beneficial and who are familiar with the EU agree that the EU contributes to peace and stability in Europe. Agreement with this proposition drops to 12% when respondents are both unfamiliar with the EU and believe that EU membership will be detrimental to them. 20

22 FLASH EUROBAROMETER *Readers should keep in mind that the numbers of respondents in this category are especially low (less than 50 respondents). The results should therefore be interpreted with caution. **This variable is the combination of the variable on Familiarity with the EU and Personal gain of a future membership, i.e. for instance the sub-category familiar and beneficial are the respondents who say that they were familiar with the EU and that Croatia s membership of the EU would be beneficial etc. 21

23 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 2.2 Perceptions of information about the EU and Croatia s accession process - Croatians are well-informed about the EU in general, but lack information about financial assistance before and after EU accession - A majority of 54% of respondents believe they are well-informed about the EU in general (10% very well-informed, 44% fairly well-informed). Less than half of the respondents (44%) also say they are well-informed about Croatia s accession process. However, when it comes to financial assistance before and after accession, only about a third of respondents feel well- informed. 66% of respondents said they were uninformed about EU financial assistance prior to accession (46% not very well informed, 20% not at all informed ). Similarly, 65% said they were either not very well-informed or not at all informed about the finance Croatia will receive from the EU after accession (45% not very well informed, 20% not at all informed ). There is a striking gender difference in the degree to which respondents feel well-informed about the EU, the accession process and financial assistance before and after accession. Women tend to feel less well-informed than men about all these areas. When asked about whether they feel well-informed about the EU, 64% of male respondents answered very well or fairly well in contrast to only 46% of women. When asked about the accession process, 51% of male respondents answered very well or fairly well as opposed to only 37% of women. With regard to financial assistance from the EU prior to accession 41% of male respondents said they felt well-informed compared to 26% of female respondents. And finally, with regard to finance Croatia will receive from the EU after accession, 43% of male respondents said they felt very well or fairly well informed, as opposed to 23% of women. 22

24 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Younger people seem to feel better-informed about the EU in general than older people. Both 59% of year-olds and year-olds said they felt well-informed. For the year-olds, the percentage drops to 53% and for the 55+ age group it declines further to 51%. However, in all other areas, the age trend is inversed. The older the respondent, the more likely they are to say they know about the accession process and financial assistance before and after EU accession. Results show that the longer respondents have been educated, the more likely they are to feel well-informed about the EU. 34% of respondents who left school at 15 or before said they felt very well or fairly well informed, while this figure rose to 48% of respondents whose education ended at the age of and 63% of respondents who remained in education until the age of 20 or later. 63% of students felt very or fairly well-informed about the EU. Respondents who spent longer in full-time education are also likely to feel betterinformed about the accession process. 27% of respondents who left school at 15 or before said they felt very or fairly well-informed, rising to 39% in the group whose education ended at the age of and 52% of respondents who remained in education until age 20 or beyond. The trend is repeated in respect of information about financial assistance prior to accession and financing after accession. In terms of occupation, manual workers are less than half as likely to feel well -informed about the EU in general as self-employed and white-collar respondents (60% of both self-employed and white-collars, 26% of manual workers are well informed about the EU). This trend is replicated in the case of information about the accession process. 28% of manual workers feel well-informed about the accession process as compared to 43% of self-employed respondents and 45% of white-collars. In the case of financial assistance prior to accession, the difference between occupations is less pronounced. 38% of self-employed respondents, 34% of white-collars and 27% of manual workers report that they feel informed about financial assistance prior to accession. Curiously, this trend is reversed in the case of financial assistance after accession. While 40% of manual workers feel very or fairly well-informed, only 37% and 36% of self-employed respondents and white-collar workers respectively feel well-informed about financial assistance after accession. 23

25 FLASH EUROBAROMETER There is a clear association between familiarity with the EU and the level of information. Among respondents who say they are familiar with the EU, 68% also say they are very or fairly well-informed about the EU, compared to 27% of respondents who are unfamiliar. 56% of respondents who are familiar with the EU are also well-informed about the accession process, compared to 24% who are unfamiliar with the EU. The corresponding figures for information about financial assistance prior to accession are 43% (familiar and well-informed) and 15% (unfamiliar and well-informed). For information about finances after accession, the percentages are 43% (familiar and wellinformed) and 16% (unfamiliar and well-informed). Respondents tend to be better-informed about the EU if they have traveled outside Croatia. 60% of those who have traveled outside Croatia are very or fairly wellinformed as compared to 39% who have not done so. This trend is repeated in the case of information about the accession process and financial assistance before and after EU accession. There is a degree of correlation between feeling well-informed and the expectation of personal gains or losses from EU membership. Of those who said that they expected a personal benefit from EU membership 60% are very or fairly wellinformed about the EU, compared to 53% who expected EU membership to be personally detrimental. In the case of the accession process, the figures are 48% (EU membership beneficial and well-informed) to 44% (EU membership detrimental and well- informed). For financial assistance prior to accession, the figures are 38% (EU membership beneficial and well-informed) to 41% (EU membership detrimental and well-informed). And finally, in the case of post-accession finance, 38% of both those believing that EU membership will be personally beneficial and of those believing it will be detrimental say they are well-informed. 24

26 FLASH EUROBAROMETER *Readers should keep in mind that the numbers of respondents in this category are especially low (less than 50 respondents). The results should therefore be interpreted with caution. 25

27 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 2.3 Awareness of facts about EU membership - A majority of Croatians are aware of main facts regarding EU membership - The majority of respondents (56%) are aware that once Croatia is a member of the EU, Croatian citizens will have the right to elect Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). The majority of respondents (56%) are also aware that after accession, Croatia will appoint an EU Commissioner. Further, 49% of Croatians state that they are very or fairly aware of the role Member States play in the governance of the EU. Again, as in the case of information about the EU and the accession process, there is a gender difference in the extent of awareness about these main facts. While 64% of male respondents are aware that EU citizens have the right to elect MEPs, this is true of only 50% of female respondents. 62% of male respondents are aware that Croatia will appoint an EU Commissioner, compared to 51% of Croatian women. 57% of Croatian men are aware of the role Member States play in the governance of the EU as opposed to only 41% of women. The results provide no conclusive data about the influence of age on awareness of these crucial facts. However, education and awareness are related. 43% of respondents who left school at the age of 15 or earlier said that they were aware of the right of EU citizens to elect MEPs. The level of awareness rises to 52% in the group whose education ended at age and to 64% for respondents who studied until age 20 or more. Awareness of the right of EU citizens to elect MEPs rises with education levels. This trend is repeated in the cases of the fact that Croatia will appoint an EU Commissioner and the role Member States play in the governance of the EU. 26

28 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Whether or not respondents think that Croatia should be in the EU also correlates with awareness of these facts. 62% of respondents who think that Croatia s future should lie in the EU are also aware of their future right to elect MEPs, compared to 50% of those who disagree. Respondents who support Croatia s membership of the EU are also more likely to be aware of other crucial aspects, such as the appointment of an EU Commissioner and the role Member States play in the governance of the EU. Almost twice as many informed as not informed respondents are aware of these essential facts. The same trend was evident in the case of familiarity with the EU: 61% of respondents who said they were familiar with the EU are aware of the role Member States play in EU governance, compared to 30% who are unaware. 27

29 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 28

30 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 2.4 Attitudes towards EU membership, adopting the euro and Croatia s membership of the Schengen area - A majority of Croatians want Croatia to join the EU - Almost 6 out of 10 respondents (59%) agreed that Croatia s future should be in the EU. Of these 59% in favour of Croatia s membership, a larger proportion (32%) totally agree that Croatia s future should be in the EU, and 27% tend to agree. 22% of respondents stated that they totally disagree and 16% tend to disagree. There is hardly any gender difference as regards the Croatian attitude to EU membership. 60% of male respondents and 58% of female respondents believe that Croatia should be in the EU. Age is a significant factor in whether or not respondents think that Croatia should join the EU. The majority of year-olds (56%) say that Croatia s future should not lie in the EU. At the other end of the age scale, respondents aged 55+ are most likely to support Croatia s membership of the EU: 44% strongly agree and 27% tend to agree (together 71%). In comparison less than half as many year-olds strongly agree with Croatia s EU membership (18%). Among year-olds, a majority of 55%-56% believe that Croatia s future should be in the EU. There is a strong relationship between expectations of personal gains or losses from EU membership and whether respondents think that Croatia should join the Union. 82% of those who expect personal benefits from EU membership think that Croatia should be in the EU, as compared to 13% who believe EU membership will be detrimental for them. 29

31 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Respondents who consider themselves familiar with the EU are much more in favour of Croatian membership than those who are not familiar with the EU (71% versus 42%). Respondents who are both familiar with the EU and expect to benefit personally from EU membership are most likely to support Croatia s membership (87%). The analysis of the combined effect of the two variables shows that familiarity with the EU has a stronger effect on attitudes to EU membership than expectations of personal gains or losses. Of those respondents who are unfamiliar with the EU but expect a personal benefit from Croatia s membership, 69% support accession. The influence of familiarity is even stronger in the case of respondents whose personal expectations of EU membership are neutral. 70% of those who expect neither personal gains nor losses from EU membership but who are familiar with the EU support Croatia s membership. However, only 45% of those who are neutral and unfamiliar with the EU believe that Croatia s future should lie in the EU. Perceptions of the impact of EU membership on the Croatian economy are linked with respondents attitudes to Croatia s membership. Respondents who agree that EU membership will have a positive influence on the Croatian economy are much more likely to approve of Croatia s accession (76%) than those who disagree (26%). 71% of respondents who believe that the national economy will not benefit from EU membership do not support Croatia s accession, compared to 22% who reject EU membership for other than economic reasons. Among respondents who believe that EU membership will lead to a loss of cultural identity, a majority of 55% nevertheless support Croatia s EU accession. The belief that Croatia s membership of the EU will interfere with national politics does not necessarily deter respondents from agreeing that Croatia s future should be in the EU. 55% of respondents who think that Croatia s EU membership will interfere with national politics support its accession, compared to 43% who do not think so. Finally, there are regional differences in the support for Croatia s EU membership. In Slavonia and Dalmatia, support stands at 53%. In Zagreb and North Croatia, support is higher: with 61% of respondents in these areas want Croatia to join the EU. Respondents from Lika and Banovina and in Istra, Rijeka and Gorski Kotar show the highest level of support: 67% and 66% respectively believe that Croatia s future should be in the EU. 30

32 FLASH EUROBAROMETER *This variable is the combination of the variable on Familiarity with the EU and Personal gain of a future membership, i.e. for instance the sub-category familiar and beneficial are the respondents who say that they were familiar with the EU and that Croatia s membership of the EU would be beneficial etc. 31

33 FLASH EUROBAROMETER - Nearly 40% of Croatians are undecided about the personal benefits of EU membership - More than 4 respondents out of 10 said that they expect Croatia s EU membership to be beneficial to them personally (10% very beneficial, 31% moderately beneficial). However, 39% are undecided and said that they expect Croatia s EU membership to be neither beneficial nor detrimental. 18% stated that for them personally, Croatia s membership of the EU would be detrimental. Croatian women tended to be more sceptical about the personal benefits of EU membership than men. While 45% of male respondents expected EU membership to be personally beneficial, only 38% of female respondents do so. A relative majority of female respondents expected Croatia s EU membership to be neither beneficial nor detrimental (45%). Among male respondents, only 32% voiced a neutral opinion (neither/nor) on this subject. The more years of full-time education respondents have completed, the more optimistic they are about personal benefits from EU membership. 45% of respondents who had remained in full-time education until the age of 20 or after believe that Croatia s membership of the EU will bring them some form of personal gain. For respondents who remained in education until the age of 16-19, the proportion drops to 40%. Only 32% of respondents who left school at 15 or younger believe that they will benefit personally from EU membership. Again, a large proportion of respondents of all levels of education expect Croatia s EU membership to be neither beneficial nor detrimental (39-40%). 32

34 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Respondents living in urban areas are more likely to expect personal benefits from EU membership than respondents living in rural areas. 44% of respondents in large towns and 43% of respondents in small and mid-sized towns think that Croatia s EU membership will bring them some form of personal gain, compared with only 35% of those living in rural villages. Again, at all levels of subjective urbanisation, about 4 in 10 respondents expect Croatia s EU membership to be neither beneficial nor detrimental. Respondents seem to associate personal benefit from EU membership with economic improvements brought by membership. 53% of those who believe that EU membership will improve the national economy in Croatia also expect that it will benefit them personally. Conversely, only 17% of respondents who do not think that EU membership will improve the national economy expect any personal benefit. 39% of both respondents who believe that EU membership will improve the national economy in Croatia and of those who think the contrary are undecided about personal benefits from EU membership. Travelling outside Croatia correlates with the expectation that EU membership will be personally beneficial. Of those who have travelled abroad, 43% expect membership to be beneficial to them whereas only 17% expect membership to be personally detrimental. Among those who had not travelled outside Croatia in the last five years, 33% (as compared to 43% of travellers) expect personal benefits from EU membership and 24% expect membership to be personally detrimental (as compared to 17% of travellers). As observed in previous questions, there is a link between the level of familiarity with the EU and the expectation of personal gains or losses from EU membership. 48% of respondents who are familiar with the EU expect EU membership to be personally beneficial, 36% are neutral about the personal impact and 14% believe EU membership will be detrimental to them. The corresponding figures for those who are not familiar with the EU are 26% (unfamiliar/beneficial), 47% (unfamiliar/neutral) and 26% (unfamiliar/detrimental). 33

35 FLASH EUROBAROMETER. 34

36 FLASH EUROBAROMETER - Nearly half of the Croatians support the Euro - While two-thirds of Croatians said that EU membership would improve the Croatian economy, only about half the respondents agreed that the euro would benefit their economy (49%). There is also a relatively high level of uncertainty regarding attitudes towards the euro compared with the results for previous questions: half of the respondents (52%) only tend to agree or disagree and 7% answered don t know. The percentage of respondents who totally disagree that the euro would have a positive impact on Croatia s economy (23%) is larger than the proportion who totally agrees (18%). Attitudes to the euro vary with gender, age and level of urbanisation. Female respondents are less certain in their attitudes to the euro than male respondents. Women also tend to be less convinced that the euro will have a positive effect on the Croatian economy (46% vs. 51% of men). Support for the euro rises with age. 39% of year-olds agree that the euro would have a positive effect on the Croatian economy, while 59% of the age group 55+ do so. Support for the euro in large towns is stronger than in small and mid-size towns and rural villages (54%, 50% and 46% respectively). Of those who believe that EU membership will improve the national economy, 60% also said that the euro would have a beneficial impact on the Croatian economy, compared to 24% of those who do not think that EU membership will improve the Croatian economy. 35

37 FLASH EUROBAROMETER The level of subjective information 5 about the EU only plays a moderate role in attitudes to the euro. Of the well-informed group, 50% agree and 44% disagree that the euro would have a positive effect on the Croatian economy (6% don t know ). Among the respondents who are not well-informed, 47% agree and 45% disagree that its impact would be positive (8% don t know ). As in previous questions, the degree of familiarity with the EU appears to influence attitudes to the euro. A majority of 56% of respondents who consider themselves familiar with the EU agreed that the euro would be good for the Croatian economy, as opposed to only 37% of those unfamiliar with the EU. The impact of familiarity combined with expectations of personal gains or losses from EU membership reflects the trend identified in previous questions. Familiarity and positive personal expectations correlate with the highest rate of support for the euro. Familiarity with the EU is more likely than expectations of personal benefits to accompany higher approval rates for the euro. 36

38 FLASH EUROBAROMETER *This variable is the combination of the variable on Familiarity with the EU and Personal gain of a future membership, i.e. for instance the sub-category familiar and beneficial are the respondents who say that they were familiar with the EU and that Croatia s membership of the EU would be beneficial etc. 37

39 FLASH EUROBAROMETER - More than 8 Croatians out of 10 would support Croatia s participation in the Schengen Agreement - 85% of Croatian respondents agree with the statement Croatia s participation in the Schengen Agreement, which means opening borders and freedom of movement, would be a positive development. Altogether, the majority of respondents (54%) totally agree, 31% tend to agree and only 13% disagree. Croatian women and men have similar attitudes to Croatia s participation in the Schengen Agreement. 82% of male respondents and a slightly higher percentage of 86% of female respondents agree that opening Croatia s borders and free movement within the Schengen area is a good idea. A large majority of respondents of all ages are in favour of joining Schengen, although young people are less enthusiastic than older age groups. 76% of year-olds support Schengen. For year-olds the rate of approval rises to 87%, for year olds to 83% and for the oldest group (55+) the rate of support is 87%. An analysis of attitudes to Schengen by education level shows that the more years of education respondents have completed, the more likely they are to support opening Croatia s borders and free movement within the Schengen area. Croatian support for opening Croatia s borders and free movement within the Schengen area is high, whether or not respondents want to join the EU. Twothirds of the respondents who do not support Croatian membership would still welcome participation in the Schengen Agreement. Almost all the respondents who support EU membership (95%) are in favour of Croatia joining the Schengen Agreement. 38

40 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Respondents may regard the prospect of free movement as one of the personal benefits of EU membership. 95% of those expecting to personally gain from EU accession also consider participation in the Schengen Agreement to be a positive development for Croatia. However, a majority of respondents (57%) who believe that EU membership will be detrimental for them nevertheless support joining Schengen. Interestingly, whether or not respondents have travelled outside Croatia in the last five years does not influence their opinion on Schengen. Those who have travelled outside Croatia in the last five years and those who have not are equally likely to support the Schengen Agreement (84%). Overall, support for joining the Schengen area is very high, independently of whether respondents are familiar with the EU (89% of EU-familiar respondents, 79% of unfamiliar respondents). 39

41 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 40

42 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 2.5 Views about potential consequences of EU membership - Croatians expect EU membership to have more positive than negative consequences - Respondents were asked to consider a list of 11 potential consequences of EU membership. On the positive side, a majority of respondents believe that, after accession to the EU: 1. More tourists will come to Croatia (78%) 2. There will be more business investments in Croatia (78%) 3. Corruption will be reduced in Croatia (67%) 4. The Croatian economy will improve (66%) 5. The standard of living will rise (56%) 6. Disparities between regions will be reduced with the help of the EU (54%) 7. Jobs will not be jeopardized (52%) 8. Croatian identity, language and culture will not be lost (64%) 41

43 FLASH EUROBAROMETER On the negative side, more than half of Croatians expect that because of EU membership: 9. Prices will rise (81%) 10. The EU will have too much control over Croatia s national policies (69%) 11. Agriculture and farmers will be affected negatively (53%) Overall, a majority of respondents agreed with all the statements that suggested positive consequences from EU membership (items 1 6 in the list). Five potential consequences were worded in a negative way (e.g. item 7: EU membership will jeopardize jobs ). Two of these five potential negative consequences were rejected by a majority of respondents. Croatians see the positive consequences of EU membership mostly in terms of economic benefits: more than three-quarters of respondents said that EU membership will bring more business investment and tourists to Croatia and two-thirds think that it will help to improve the economy. More than half of respondents think that jobs will not be lost because of EU membership. Generally, respondents who are familiar with the EU show a higher rate of agreement with the positively-worded statements than those who are not familiar with the EU; depending on the issue, the difference varies from 10 points to 24 points. For example, 63% of respondents who feel familiar with the EU expect the EU to help improve the standard of living, compared to only 40% of those who are unfamiliar with the EU. Respondents are more likely to agree with the positive statements if they are both familiar with the EU and believe that EU membership will be personally beneficial to them. Respondents, who are either familiar with the EU or believe that EU membership will be personally beneficial to them but do not score high on both scales, expect fewer positive consequences than those familiar and positive towards personal benefits. In line with results from previous questions, respondents who are most enthusiastic about EU membership generally combine familiarity with the EU with expectations of personal benefits from EU membership. 42

44 FLASH EUROBAROMETER *This variable is the combination of the variable on Familiarity with the EU and Personal gain of a future membership, i.e. for instance the sub-category familiar and beneficial are the respondents who say that they were familiar with the EU and that Croatia s membership of the EU would be beneficial etc. 43

45 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Slightly more than 8 out of 10 Croatians agree that because of EU membership prices will increase (81%) and nearly 7 out of 10 agree that EU will have too much control over national policies. A majority of 53% also believe that membership will have a negative effect on Croatia s agriculture and the independence of its farmers. However, there is no majority support for the statement that EU membership will jeopardize jobs (only 44% of respondents agreed). Nor did a majority of respondents agree that EU membership would result in a loss of identity, language and culture for Croatian citizens (only a third of respondents agreed). Young respondents (15-24 years old) are more likely than older respondents to agree that EU membership will result in a loss of identity, language and culture for Croatian citizens, 43% of young people (15-24 years old) strongly agree or tend to agree with the statement, while among the older age groups only 32% (on average) support the statement. Familiarity with the EU makes respondents more likely to reject the potential negative consequences. 68% of those who are familiar with the EU do not expect a loss of identity, language and culture, as opposed to 58% of respondents who are unfamiliar with the EU. Similarly, 57% of familiar and only 42% of unfamiliar respondents disagree that EU membership would jeopardize jobs. The degree to which respondents feel well-informed about the EU is only a minor factor in forming opinions about consequences of EU membership. This is a trend that was already observed in the answers to previous questions, such as whether Croatians and EU citizens share common values, attitudes to the euro or support for EU membership. 44

46 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 45

47 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 3. CROATIA S RELATIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES 3.1 Countries visited in the past five years - Almost two-thirds of Croatians regularly travel outside their country - Almost two-thirds of respondents (65%) said that they had travelled outside Croatia several times in the past five years. A further 12% of respondents had left the country once. In all, 77% of Croatian respondents have travelled abroad at least once. Only 23% of respondents had not travelled outside Croatia in the past five years. A significantly higher proportion of Croatian men than women had travelled abroad (84% of male respondents versus 71% of female respondents,). Inhabitants of large villages and rural towns alike travel outside Croatia: 73% of both groups have left the country at least once. In terms of age, 74% of year olds and 70% of year-olds have travelled outside Croatia several times, as opposed to 60% of the youngest age group (15-24 years) and 56% of respondents aged 55 years or more. Self-employed and white-collar respondents (89% and 85%) are more likely to travel outside Croatia than manual workers and non-active respondents (69% and 71%). 46

48 FLASH EUROBAROMETER *Readers should keep in mind that the numbers of respondents in this category are especially low (less than 50 respondents). The results should therefore be interpreted with caution. 47

49 FLASH EUROBAROMETER - Croatians primarily travel to their neighbouring countries - Among those respondents who have travelled outside Croatia, a large majority of 76% have visited a neighbouring country or countries. The majority of 56% have travelled to another country or countries in Europe. Only a minority of 4% of respondents who have travelled outside Croatia had been to North America. - Financial reasons are most likely to prevent Croatians from travelling outside their country - Most of those who did not travel outside Croatia in the last 5 years (52%) were prevented from doing so by financial reasons. Another 20% did not travel abroad because of personal or private reasons. 17% of respondents were not interested in travelling outside their home country. Finally, 7% did not have the time to travel abroad and 3% were concerned about safety. 48

50 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Respondents who are not interested in visiting other countries tend to be male (22% male versus 14% female respondents). The youngest (aged years) and the oldest (55+ years) respondents are most likely to be reluctant to leave Croatia: 19% of both these groups are not interested in travelling outside Croatia, as opposed to 12% of year-olds and 16% of year-olds. Respondents who believe that EU membership will be personally detrimental are more likely to be uninterested in travelling abroad than those who expect personal benefits from EU membership: 24% of those who expect personal losses from EU membership do not want to travel abroad, compared to 13% of those who expect personal gains. Base: Respondents who have not travelled outside Croatia in the past five years (n=236) *Readers should keep in mind that the numbers of respondents in this category are especially low (less than 50 respondents). The results should therefore be interpreted with caution. 49

51 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 3.2 EU countries respondents feel closest to - More than a third of Croatians feel closest to Germany - The EU country that the largest proportion of Croatian respondents felt closest to is Germany (35%), followed by Slovenia, the country s EU neighbour and former partner in the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which dissolved in More Croatians felt closest to Austria (26%) than to Hungary (18%), with which they also share a border. 16% of respondents felt close to Italy, 14% to the Czech Republic and 9% to Slovakia. Hardly any Croatian respondents felt close to EU countries in the far west, such as the UK or France (both 4%). 50

52 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 3.3 Support for other countries accession to the EU - Croatia s support for EU membership of other candidate countries and potential candidates is low - Slightly more than half of the respondents (51%) support the application of Bosnia and Herzegovina to join the EU. None of the other potential applicants receive as much 50% of the respondents support. Surprisingly, the country which Croatian respondents are most likely to support to join the EU (Bosnia and Herzegovina), has not yet applied for EU membership. 43% of respondents voiced their support for the accession of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, followed by Iceland with 35%. Montenegro s accession would be supported by 29% of respondents. About a quarter (24%) of respondents support the candidacies of Serbia and Turkey. Kosovo * was supported by 21% of respondents. Albania gathered the least support (16%). 7% of respondents support none of the candidates or potential candidates. * Under UNSCR 1244/

53 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Familiarity with the EU does not raise the level of support for other countries applications for EU membership. 50% of those familiar with the EU, compared to 56% of unfamiliar respondents, are in favour of Bosnia and Herzegovina joining the EU. 16% of those familiar with the EU support the accession of Albania in comparison to 15% of those unfamiliar with the EU. 52

54 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 4. CHANNELS USED TO STAY INFORMED ABOUT CURRENT AFFAIRS AND THE EU 4.1 Preferred method of staying informed about current affairs and frequency of use - Croatians mostly prefer to get their information about current affairs from TV - The highest proportion of Croatian respondents (50%) say that their preferred method of staying informed about current affairs is watching television. 33% of respondents listed the Internet as their preferred source of information on current affairs. Local and national newspapers serve 8% of the respondents as a source of information, while only 5% listen to the radio to remain informed. Only 1% of respondents source their information about current affairs from international newspapers, the same proportion that take their information from the church or from friends and relatives. More female than male respondents prefer television as their source of information (54% and 46% respectively). More men than women consult the Internet for information (38% and 28% respectively). The youngest respondents, aged 15 to 24, rely almost exclusively on the Internet (58%) and television (31%). Older respondents (55+ years) predominantly watch television (69%) to inform themselves about current affairs and very few respondents above the age of 55 use the Internet (8%). 53

55 FLASH EUROBAROMETER Three-quarters of the respondents who left school at the age of 15 or earlier source their information from television as opposed to 44% of those who remained in education until at least age % of those who consider themselves well-informed about the EU take their information about current affairs from television, 41% from the Internet and 8% from national or local newspapers. Of those respondents who consider themselves badly-informed about the EU, 58% keep informed on TV, 23% on the Internet and 8% read national or local newspapers. 54

56 FLASH EUROBAROMETER - A large majority of Croatians follow current affairs on a daily basis - More than 8 out of 10 respondents (83%) watch or listen to current affairs information every day. 14% of respondents follow current affairs at least once a week and only 3% do not do so on a regular basis. The frequency with which respondents keep up to date with current affairs rises with age. Only 58% of year-olds follow current affairs on a daily basis while 93% of respondents aged 55 years older do so. There is no significant gender difference in the frequency with which respondents follow current affairs. 55

57 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 4.2 Trust in information on current affairs from local, national and international medias - Croatians trust current affairs information from local media - Almost two-thirds of respondents (65%) either totally trust or tend to trust information on current affairs in the local media. However, the proportion of respondents who only tend to trust these media is significantly higher (60%) than the proportion which totally trust this information (5%). 9% do not trust information about current affairs in the local media at all, and 23% tend not to trust local sources of information. There are no significant differences by gender, age, education or occupation for this question. - Fewer Croatians trust information on current affairs from national media sources than local media - Even though the difference is small, fewer respondents trust national than local media sources when it comes to information on current affairs. While 65% of respondents say that they trust information on current affairs in the local media, only 63% trust national media. The difference between local and national media is more obvious when we consider the proportion of respondents who do not trust local or national media. 32% do not trust local media, whereas a slightly higher portion of 36%) do not trust national media. 56

58 FLASH EUROBAROMETER - Croatians trust information on current affairs from international media more than local and national sources - When asked to what extent they trust international media, 62% of respondents say that they tend to trust international media sources; 6% trust them totally. Only 26% distrust information in the international media, of whom 20% tend to distrust and 6% totally distrust this information. More Croatians trust information on current affairs in the international media than in local and national media. 68% of respondents totally trust or tend to trust international media reporting on current affairs, compared to 65% for local media and 63% for national media sources. A socio-demographic analysis by gender, education, subjective urbanisation or occupation, reveals no significant differences. 57

59 FLASH EUROBAROMETER 4.3 Sources of information about the EU - Most Croatians get their information about the EU from television - Most Croatian respondents rely on television as a source of information about the EU. 68% said that they use television to find out information about the EU, compared to 47% who use the Internet and 28% who read local/national newspapers. Another 18% of respondents listen to the radio for information about the EU. 11% of respondents reported that they use online social networks to inform themselves about the EU. 9% of respondents retrieve this information directly from the Croatian government and a further 7% use information which comes directly from the EU, i.e. brochures, websites and newsletters. 6% consult international newspapers for information about the EU. Again, as with sources of information on current affairs, male respondents seem more computer-literate and are more likely to use the Internet and online social networks than female respondents (53% vs. 42%). On the other hand, 71% of female respondents listed television as a source of information about the EU, compared to 64% of men. Overall, television is the most important channel for public information in Croatia, both for current affairs in general and for information about the EU. The Internet offers an effective way to reach young respondents and students, who rely on the Internet more than on television for information about both current affairs and the EU. 58