UK EU Referendum. The Polls + LucidTalk NI Tracker Polls. Roadshow Event Riddell Hall, Belfast June 2nd 2016
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1 UK EU Referendum The Polls + LucidTalk NI Tracker Polls Roadshow Event Riddell Hall, Belfast June 2nd 2016
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3 UK EU Referendum NI POLLING RESULTS NI EU REFERENDUM LT May Tracker Poll UK EUROPEAN UNION REFERENDUM: The UK EU referendum question will be: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? If this referendum was to be held tomorrow which way would you vote? TOTAL RESULTS
4 UK EU Referendum NI POLLING RESULTS NI EU REFERENDUM LT May Tracker Poll UK EUROPEAN UNION REFERENDUM: The UK EU referendum question will be: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? If this referendum was to be held tomorrow which way would you vote? Unionists Only
5 UK EU Referendum NI POLLING RESULTS NI EU REFERENDUM LT May Tracker Poll UK EUROPEAN UNION REFERENDUM: The UK EU referendum question will be: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? If this referendum was to be held tomorrow which way would you vote? Nationalists/Republicans Only
6 UK EU Referendum NI POLLING RESULTS NI EU REFERENDUM LT May Tracker Poll UK EUROPEAN UNION REFERENDUM: The UK EU referendum question will be: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? If this referendum was to be held tomorrow which way would you vote? Alliance/Green/Others Only
7 UK EU Referendum NI POLLING RESULTS NI EU REFERENDUM LT May Tracker Poll UK EUROPEAN UNION REFERENDUM: The UK EU referendum question will be: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? If this referendum was to be held tomorrow which way would you vote? - MALES ONLY
8 UK EU Referendum NI POLLING RESULTS NI EU REFERENDUM LT May Tracker Poll UK EUROPEAN UNION REFERENDUM The UK EU referendum question will be: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? If this referendum was to be held tomorrow which way would you vote? - FEMALES ONLY
9 UK EU Referendum NI POLLING RESULTS NI EU REFERENDUM LT May Tracker Poll UK EUROPEAN UNION REFERENDUM - NI Polling: Regardless of your own political views, and based on your own discussions with family, friends, work colleagues etc., what do you expect the overall final NI EU Referendum result will be? Wisdom of Crowds
10 UK EU Referendum Latest Polls Great Britain End of April to End of May
11 So in Northern Ireland terms who are the types for one side or the other! LEAVE: Male, Unionist, Working class, Rural-West of NI, 45+ age-group REMAIN: Female, Nationalist/Republican or Alliance/Green, Middle class, Urban East of NI, age-group Differential turnout Will Nationalists/Republicans turnout in same No s as at NI Assembly election? England holds the key: If England votes 53% Leave to 47% Remain, then: Requires - Wales, Scotland, and NI together to vote 75%+ Remain to overhaul that result
12 What do the Bookies say?!! OVERALL % FOR REMAIN: 40.00% or less 40/1, 40.01%-45% 14/1, 45.01%-50% 3/1, 50.01%-55% 7/4, 55.01%-60% 15/8, 60.01%-65% 6/1 up OVERALL RESULT: In favour of remaining in EU 2/7, - In favour of exiting EU 11/4 (NB was 9/2 at the end of last year) SCOTLAND: In favour of remaining in EU 1/200, - In favour of exiting EU 25/1 NORTHERN IRELAND: In favour of remaining in EU 1/25, - In favour of exiting EU 8/1
13 Thank You
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