ELITE AND MASS ATTITUDES ON HOW THE UK AND ITS PARTS ARE GOVERNED ENGLAND AND THE PROCESS OF CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
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1 BRIEFING ELITE AND MASS ATTITUDES ON HOW THE UK AND ITS PARTS ARE GOVERNED ENGLAND AND THE PROCESS OF CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE Jan Eichhorn, Daniel Kenealy, Richard Parry, Lindsay Paterson & Alexandra Remond MARCH
2 and the process of constitutional change In the context of the Scottish independence referendum and devolution arrangements for Wales and Northern Ireland, there have been repeated calls to consider how should be governed and whether it should undergo its own process of devolution. A range of different proposals has been put forward at different stages and they have often been presented as mutually exclusive propositions. This briefing engages with the attitudes of people in on these suggestions. It first discusses three prominent proposals and investigates to what extent different groups of people agree or disagree with them. It then analyses whether there are differences between groups of people in their top choice for how should be governed, if they could only select one option. Finally, we engage with the question of how people would like to see these decisions made in the future. Appraising different governance options for In our survey we asked respondents to state whether they agreed or disagreed (or neither agreed nor disagreed) with three propositions about how should be governed. They were asked about each option separately, to allow people to agree with none or several of the proposals. We randomised the order so as to avoid any ordering effects of the sequence in which the options were presented to respondents. We analyse support for the different propositions by region, age and political party affinity (precise question wordings are shown in the footnotes to the respective tables where the questions are first introduced). We find that for many people, different options for the constitutional future of are not considered necessarily mutually exclusive. When we consider the breakdown of English regions (table 1) we find that the proposition with the highest agreement in all regions is English Votes for English Laws, now commonly referred to by the acronym EVEL. 70 to 75 per cent of people agree with the principle that laws for should only be made by members of the UK Parliament representing English constituencies in all regions except Greater London (where the number is slightly lower at 66%). However, that does not mean that two other options, regional assemblies and giving more powers to city regions, did not have support. To the contrary, amongst those who expressed a view on these options at least half of respondents in each region supported regional assemblies and city regions respectively (except for East Anglia, where support for city region powers was just below that at 49%). Many people agreed with more than one option in each region. While we find some variation by region on each of these three options, the differences between the regions are not very large and mostly statistically insignificant. For EVEL, Greater London exhibits a lower level of support than most regions and East Midlands in contrast a somewhat higher level of support.. For differences in support between city regions only differences between the highest level of support (Yorkshire and Humberside) and the lowest levels of support (East Anglia/East Midlands) should be seen as distinguishable. There is no significant variation for support for regional assemblies. The general finding, therefore, is that the level of support for each constitutional option separately is rather consistent across regions. All three options have overall 1
3 support amongst those with a view. EVEL receives the greatest level of support. Levels of support for regional assemblies and powers for city regions are more similar to each other and somewhat lower than support for EVEL. Therefore, it is important to investigate whether preferences for different options may vary more extensively for other differentiating factors, such as political party orientation or age. Table 1: Agreement with different constitutional options for by region 1 % agreeing with propositions for EVEL 2 Regional assemblies 3 City regions power4 North East North West Yorkshire and Humberside West Midlands East Midlands East Anglia South West South East Greater London Sample size Don t know responses were excluded from the analysis (Full sample: 4027). Responses missing to 100% are neither agree nor disagree and disagree ; Percentages are weighted, sample size is unweighted When we look at identification with particular political parties and these different constitutional options, we indeed see much larger levels of variation (table 2). Support for EVEL is clearly highest amongst respondents who feel close to UKIP (86%) or the Conservative Party (84%), lower for those with no affinity to any party (69%), those who feel close to the Liberal Democrats or the Green Party (64% each) and is lowest for those with an affinity for Labour (59%). Labour supporters do not significantly agree more with any one of the three propositions, but support all at 58 to 60 per cent. For Labour sympathisers, there does not seem to be one single proposition that could clearly be identified as gathering distinctively more support than others. The same is true for those with an affinity for the Green Party, where all proposals receive the same support at 64 per cent. 1 Preamble wording: Several propositions have been put forward about how should best be governed that some people favour, while others object to them. Please consider the following propositions and for each of them say whether you agree, disagree or neither agree nor disagree with them. The order in which the three following propositions were presented was randomised to avoid ordering effects. 2 Question wording: Laws for should only be made by Members of the UK Parliament representing English constituencies. Do you agree with this suggestion, neither agree nor disagree, or disagree with this suggestion? 3 Question wording: Some political decision making for should take place at a regional level rather than centrally in the UK Parliament. For this purpose elected regional assemblies should be created. Do you agree with this suggestion, neither agree nor disagree, or disagree with this suggestion? 4 Question wording: Large city regions in should have more autonomy to take decisions on certain matters affecting their respective city region. To achieve this more powers should be given to councils in city regions. Do you agree with this suggestion, neither agree nor disagree, or disagree with this suggestion? 2
4 Table 2: Agreement with different constitutional options for by political party affinity 5 % agreeing with propositions for EVEL Regional assemblies City regions power Conservative Party Labour Party Liberal Democrats UK Independence Party Green Party Not close to any party Sample size Don t know/prefer not to say responses and parties with fewer than 5% of people feeling close to them were excluded from the analysis (Full sample: 4027). Responses missing to 100% are neither agree nor disagree and disagree ; Percentages are weighted, sample size is unweighted We also find significant variation by age group in levels of agreement with different constitutional options (table 3). There is not much difference in agreement for regional assemblies (with support ranging from 48 to 53 per cent). However, for city region powers we can observe an interesting pattern: agreement is highest at middle-aged groups (63% for year and 68% for year olds) and lowest for the youngest age group (18-24 year olds: 52%) and the oldest respondents (65 and above: 54%). However, we find the greatest variation in support for EVEL. The older the group we look at, the more people agree with the idea of English Votes for English Laws. While only 52% of year olds support it, 84% of those 65 and above do. Table 3: Agreement with different constitutional options for by age % agreeing with propositions for EVEL Regional assemblies City regions power Sample size Don t know responses were excluded from the analysis (Full sample: 4027). Responses missing to 100% are neither agree nor disagree and disagree ; Percentages are weighted, sample size is unweighted Top choices for the governance of The responses above suggest that, for many, different forms of constitutional arrangements for how should be governed are not mutually exclusive. However, much of the political (and media) debate has been framed in a way that positions different and distinctive options against each other. These options focus on the question of where the primary place for the making of legislation affecting people in should be and typically include the status quo, EVEL, regional assemblies, and the creation of a new English Parliament. We asked people to choose amongst those options which one they would prioritise. Crucially, again to avoid biasing sequence effects, we randomised the order in which the different options were presented to the respondents. 5 Question wording: Which political party, if any at all, do you feel closest to? 3
5 When forced to pick one option, EVEL comes out on top in all regions of (table 4). However, the extent of its lead over other possibilities is much more varied than is general agreement for EVEL, which we surveyed above. In Greater London EVEL is the top choice but is only marginally more popular (35%) than the status quo (32%). In the North West and Yorkshire and Humberside the lead is also rather small (34%) ahead of the second most favoured option, which in both cases are regional assemblies (with 28% and 29% respectively). At the other end of the spectrum there are regions in which support for EVEL is more than 20 percentage points greater than support for the second choice (often a close call between regional assemblies and the status quo). These regions are East Midlands, East Anglia and South West. Support for an English Parliament is usually the least favourite option (with 11 to 17 per cent choosing this as the top option). So we find much greater geographic variation in terms of relative support of options for constitutional support when forcing people to select only one though this may be a somewhat artificial choice, considering our findings above suggesting that many people see the options as not mutually exclusive. Table 4: Top option for governance of 6 by region (row %age) Regional English Status quo EVEL assemblies Parliament North East North West Yorkshire and Humberside West Midlands East Midlands East Anglia South West South East Greater London Don t know and none of these responses were excluded from the analysis (Full sample: 4027); Percentages are weighted, sample size is unweighted We find several of our earlier variations by political party affinity replicated here. Conservatives and UKIP identifiers are most likely to prioritise EVEL (52% and 45% respectively) with 20% of UKIP identifiers favouring an English Parliament (table 5). Respondents who feel close to Labour do not have a particular preference. Regional assemblies, EVEL and the status quo receive nearly as many first preference choices as each other, with about 3 in 10 choosing it as their favourite. For Liberal Democrat identifiers only slightly more favour EVEL (35%) than favour regional assemblies (29%) if forced to choose. For Green identifiers regional assemblies are the top choice (36%) over EVEL (30%). 6 Question wording: With all the changes going on in the way the different parts of the United Kingdom are run, which of the following do you think would be best for? Answer option order was randomised to avoid ordering effects. Options wording: For to be governed as it is now, with laws made by the UK parliament, For laws to be made by the UK Parliament, but only Members of Parliament for English constituencies voting on matters affecting only, For each region of to have its own assembly that would take decisions on certain issues at a regional level, For as a whole to have its own new parliament with lawmaking powers 4
6 Table 5: Top option for governance of by party affinity (row %age) Regional English Status quo EVEL assemblies Parliament Conservative Party Labour Party Liberal Democrats UK Independence Party Green Party Not close to any party Don t know and none of these responses parties with fewer than 5% of people feeling close to them were excluded from the analysis were excluded from the analysis (Full sample: 4027); Percentages are weighted, sample size is unweighted We also find the age patterns above largely replicated here and can better see how the patterns in support differ by age (table 6). Older respondents are much more likely to select EVEL as their priority (53% amongst those 65 and above compared to 26% amongst the youngest age group), while the reverse is the case for support for regional assemblies. 29% and 28% of and year olds respectively select such assemblies as the best option, while only 16% of over 65 year olds do the same. Taken together we clearly see that there are important variations in support for different constitutional options for how should be governed. Variation is strongest for party affinity and age, but we also find substantial variation between certain regions, in particular when people are asked to select one specific option. Table 6: Top option for governance of by age (row %age) Regional English Status quo EVEL assemblies Parliament Don t know and none of these responses were excluded from the analysis were excluded from the analysis (Full sample: 4027); Percentages are weighted, sample size is unweighted Decision making preferences about s constitutional future It is not enough to understand which constitutional options people prefer in order to engage adequately in a process of constitutional change. We also need to investigate how people would like decisions about how the UK is governed to be made. This is especially important at the present time. Scotland s independence referendum and the Smith Commission that followed it so rapidly served to catalyse ongoing debates about governance arrangements elsewhere in the UK. We heard from our elite interviewees that, for example, the so-called Devo Manc deal (a package of proposals totalling 2 billion of spending on housing, transport and planning, and potentially a further 6 billion of health spending) was given fresh impetus as a result of the referendum and Smith Commission process. However, there has been little public engagement or consultation on such significant changes. There is little prospect of a referendum being held in the Greater Manchester area. This is perhaps due to a fear of the proposal being rejected by voters. The last time a 5
7 referendum took place on an issue of governance in was the 2004 North East referendum on a Regional Assembly, overwhelmingly rejected by the voters. Instead a deal has been agreed between local politicians and local government officials, on the one hand, and UK Treasury officials, on the other. George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, has been a key figure in this process, as have local leaders such as Lord Smith of Leigh (Leader of Wigan Council), Sir Richard Leese (Leader of Manchester Council), and Sir Howard Bernstein (Chief Executive of Manchester Council). Local elites interviewed for the project pointed out both that more work needed to be done to engage the public, but also that it was an issue they felt it was hard to focus public attention on. Some elites in the Greater Manchester area feel that they are ahead of the public on this issue and, once the new powers and the new Interim Mayor are in place, they can begin to engage the public more fully about what those powers means and how they are working to improve local service delivery and boost economic development. We heard similar responses elsewhere in the North West of. Greater Manchester is not the only part of that is in the frame to receive more powers from central government (although it is clearly in a different league in terms of the current developments). The move towards Combined Authorities across the North of accelerated in 2014 (with Sheffield, the North East, Merseyside, and West Yorkshire joining Greater Manchester). Developments in these other areas are progressing more slowly, with many areas debating whether they wish to institute a form of Mayor for their area. It remains to be seen to what extent local politicians in these other areas will engage the public. In Scotland we heard numerous critical observations from civic society organisations about the process of constitutional change embodied by the Smith Commission and the general failure to engage the public fully. Politicians and civil servants close to the Smith Commission process defended the engagement and outreach exercise that was conducted. Indeed, within the restrictions in which the process had to operate, distilling thousands of submissions into useful summaries was an admirable accomplishment. However, the public engagement and outreach exercise remained superficial (c.f. Briefing on the Smith Commission). We have shown in our research that the majority of people across the UK, including, are not fed up with discussions about how the UK is governed. Just over a quarter of English respondents says that too much time has been spent talking about this theme (c.f. Briefing on Public Preferences). With these findings in mind it may not come as a surprise that many people in would like to actively decide themselves about how they should be governed. By far the most popular option, in nearly all of s regions, for how decisions on how the UK is governed should be taken is through referenda (table 7). Of those who have a view more than half support a referendum on this question in all regions, except Greater London, where 46% prefer this way of decision making. Of all English regions, respondents from Greater London would be most satisfied with MPs in the UK Parliament making this decision (43%), while those in the North East, North West and Yorkshire and Humberside are least likely to prefer Westminster to decide (30%). While people in are generally favourable to the idea of a constitutional convention to develop proposals for how the UK should be governed (c.f. Briefing on Public Preferences), only a minority would want such a convention to 6
8 take the actual decision about s future governance rather than have people decide in a referendum. Table 7: Decision making preference over how is governed 7 by region (row %age) Westminster Referendum Constitutional convention North East North West Yorkshire and Humberside West Midlands East Midlands East Anglia South West South East Greater London Don t know responses were excluded from the analysis (Full sample: 4027); Percentages are weighted, sample size is unweighted There is also great variation by political party affinity (table 8). Of those who feel close to the Conservatives and who express a view on this issue, 51% prefer the parliament at Westminster to decide. This is much less popular with identifiers of other parties with 39% for Liberal Democrats, 34% for Labour, and even lower levels for those with an affinity to no party (29%), the Green Party (28%) or UKIP. A referendum is by far the most popular option amongst UKIP identifiers, but also reaches more than 50% support amongst those with a view who identify with the Green Party, no party at all or Labour. Table 8: Decision making preference over how is governed by party affinity (row %age) Westminster Referendum Constitutional convention Conservative Party Labour Party Liberal Democrats UK Independence Party Green Party Not close to any party Don t know responses were excluded from the analysis (Full sample: 4027); Percentages are weighted, sample size is unweighted We find difference between age groups too, but they are less pronounced on the question of how to decide than the questions about constitutional preferences looked at earlier. While older people are somewhat more likely to favour the parliament at Westminster to decide (41% of those aged 65 or above), the difference is not very large (with 31-33% support amongst year olds). In all age groups a referendum is the most preferred option. 7 Question wording: There are different possible ways of making decisions about how should be governed. Who do you think decisions about how is governed should be taken by?, Answer options: The UK Parliament at Westminster, The people of in a referendum, A constitutional convention 7
9 Table 9: Decision making preference over how is governed by age (row %age) Westminster Referendum Constitutional convention Don t know responses were excluded from the analysis (Full sample: 4027); Percentages are weighted, sample size is unweighted The survey results suggest the public are not content with major decisions on how their part of is governed to be made by UK government ministers and local leaders and then presented fait accompli. People want to be involved in a referendum and are generally more politically engaged than many commentators have stipulated, seeing that most get informed about political issues and have taken part in some form of political action (c.f. Briefing on Democratic Engagement and Constitutional Change for detailed figures). Conclusion Our major conclusions are: Whilst EVEL remains the most popular proposed change in how is governed overall, most people do not see EVEL and other proposals such as regional assemblies and city regions as mutually exclusive. Many people favour multiple options at the same time. Our results suggest that all three proposals EVEL, regional assemblies, and city regions have significant levels of support and ought to be further debated. EVEL is not, as some suggest, the silver bullet answer to the English Question. There exists substantial variation in preferences on how should be governed by region, age, and party identification. Older people tend to support EVEL more, while the youngest respondents appear to be more balanced in their preferences. Labour and Green Party identifiers do not have one strongly preferred constitutional option, while Conservative and UKIP identifiers are the main supporters of EVEL. Interesting variation also exists on preferences for the process for deciding how should be governed by party identification. Referenda are the most popular mechanism for making such important decisions, and overwhelmingly popular amongst those who identify with UKIP. They are also the favourite option for all other party identifiers, except those who feel close to the Conservatives, whose first choice would be a decision by Members of the Westminster Parliament. Majorities in all age groups favour referenda as the decision mechanism. 8
10 Appendix: Unweighted full sample sizes by region Region Sample size North East 417 North West 466 Yorkshire and Humberside 457 West Midlands 451 East Midlands 456 East Anglia 403 South West 451 South East 461 Greater London 465 TOTAL
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