Information. Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance. September
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1 Information Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance September 17
2 Contents X Table of Contents 1 Germany Eurozone World Economy... 3 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators... 4 Imprint...
3 Germany 1 1 Germany Leading indicators weaken from a high level Most leading indicators for the German economy have recently developed somewhat weaker, but remain at a high level. As a result of the less favorable assessment of the situation, the Ifo Business Climate Index (Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex) declined while the expectations rose slightly again. The sentix Economic index showed a similar trend, although the overall index managed to grow slightly. The Economic Sentiment Indicator also declined, as did the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW- Konjunkturindikator). After its decline in the previous month, the Purchasing Managers' Index for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) rose again, reaching 59.3 points just below the 17 high of 59.6 points. According to the toll statistics, truck mileage was slightly increased. ifo-business Climate Index Germany manufacturing, construction and trade, 5 = 13 Business Climate Assessment of business situation Business expectations Purchasing Managers' Index Germany, manufacturing, 5 = no change Source: ifo Institut Economic Sentiment Indicator, Germany 5 = Source: MarkIT ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Germany Source: ZEW Source: Eurostat Truck kilometers traveled and industrial output, Germany Difference from same month last year kilometers traveled (1 month delay) sentix Economic Index, Germany Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index % industrial output (3-month average) % 15% 15% 1% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -% - - -% % - Source: sentix Source: German Federal Office for Goods and Transport (BAG), Destatis.
4 Eurozone 2 2 Eurozone Leading indicators continue to excel The leading indicators for the Eurozone have developed differently, but are on a high level. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) was able to grow at a minimal pace, as the higher expectations could slightly overcompensate the less positive assessment of the situation. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose somewhat, but the index fell slightly for the EU as a whole. In August, the Purchasing Managers Index for the Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) compensated for the decline from the previous month and returned exactly to the level of June with 57.4 points. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) continued to decline. The most recent quarterly Ifo Index for the Eurozone was published in July. Compared to the previous month, the index went up. The balance of the assessment of the situation improved from to points, the expectation balance rose from +31. to percentage points. Thus, the overall index went up from to points. sentix Economic Index, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 5 = EU Eurozone Sorce: sentix Source: Eurostat Purchasing Managers' Index, Eurozone manufacturing, 5 = no change Source: MarkIT ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Euro area Source: ZEW ifo Economic Climate for the Eurozone balances Economic climate Assessment for economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months Source: ifo Institut
5 World Economy 3 3 World Economy Leading indicators send positive signals The global leading indicators also send positive signals overall. The OECD business climate index (OECD-Geschäftsklima) has risen further and is now slightly above its long-term average. The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the global economy is moving slightly above, but has been stagnating for several months. After its decline in the previous month, the Purchasing Managers Index for the global Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) rose again, reaching the highest level in six years at 55.2 points. Both two freight indices the Baltic Dry Index as well as the Container Throughput Index continued to rise. The most recent quarterly Ifo Index for the world economy was published in July. The overall index decreased by a minimum of.3 to points. However, this is due to opposing developments in the two index components: while the balance of the assessment of the situation rose from +4.7 to +12. percentage points, the expectation balance fell from to points. OECD composite leading indicator long-time average =, seasonally adjusted 14 Bundesbank leading indicator for the world economy long-term avarage = Source: OECD 92 Source:Bundesbank Purchasing Managers' Index manufacturing, worldwide, 5 = no change; weighted average of Eurozone, UK, USA, Japan, China, India, Brasil and Russia ifo World Economic Climate Balances Economic climate Assessment of economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months Sources: ISM, CFLP, MarkIT, ow n calculations. - Source: ifo Institut Baltic Dry Index Container Throughput Index and World Trade Jahresverlauf 16/17 seasonally adjusted, 8 = RWI/ISL -Index World Trade Quelle: bloomberg Sources: RWI, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
6 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators 4 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators The Ifo Business Climate is a widely observed leading indicator for economic development in Germany. It is based on ca. 7, monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The Ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone as well as the ifo World Economic Climate Index are based on a survey of 1, or 3 economic experts respectively. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) is based on estimations by purchasing managers of industrial companies. The PMI for the Industry in the world economy is calculated by us. It conveys the average of the PMIs of the Eurozone, the USA, the UK, Japan, China and Brasil, weighted according to their share of world GDP. The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is based on a survey of businesses from industry, trade, construction as well as service providers and consumers. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) is based on a survey of over 3 financial experts. The toll statistics account for the mileage of trucks that are liable to tolls on German autobahns measured in kms. The change of the amount compared with the same month of the previous year (adjusted for the calendar effect) serves as an indicator. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) is based on a survey of 2,5 private and institutional financial market participants. The OECD business climate index (OECD-Geschäftsklimaindex) is the weighted average of business climate indexes from 33 countries and is based on company surveys (OECD-members such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy is made up of several global indicators (Purchasing Managers Index for industry, Purchasing Managers Index for services, consumer climate for the current economic situation, consumer climate for business expectations, S&P Global stock index). The Baltic Dry Index is an important price index for tracking international shipping costs for dry bulk commodities. The Container Throughput Index is a joint project of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (RWI) and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL). It is based on market observations in 72 international ports that together make up about percent of the worldwide container handling of manufactured goods.
7 Contact / Imprint 5 Volker Leinweber Head of Economics Telefon Telefax volker.leinweber@vbw-bayern.de Imprint As a general rule, all information provided in this publication relates to both the female and male form. To facilitate readability, specific reference to the female form was in most cases dispensed with. Publisher: bayme Bayerischer Unternehmensverband Metall und Elektro e. V. vbm Verband der Bayerischen Metall- und Elektro-Industrie e. V. vbw Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. Max-Joseph-Straße München bayme vbm vbw September 17
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