Information. Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance. January 2016

Transcription

1 Information Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance January 216

2 bayme vbm vbw January 216 Table of Contents X Table of Contents 1 Germany Eurozone World economy... 3 Appendix: Description of leading indicators... 4 Contact/ Publication details... 5

3 bayme vbm vbw January 216 Germany 1 1 Germany Inconsistent development of leading indicators The leading indicators for Germany do not provide a clear picture. The ifo Business Climate Index (ifo-geschäftsklimaindex) decreased due to a slightly worse assessment of the business situation. The business expectations remained the same as in the previous month. For the Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex), the assessment of both the business situation and the business expectations declined. The Economic Sentiment Indicator remained the same as in December 215. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) and the Purchasing Managers Index for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) were able to recover from their previously low levels. The latter has risen to 53.2 points, placing it well above the growth threshold. There is still no data available on the mileage of trucks (according to the toll statistics). ifo-business Climate Index Germany Purchasing Managers' Index industry and trade, 25 = Business Climate Assessment of business situation Germany, manufacturing, 5 = no change 13 Business expectations Source: ifo Institut 25 Source: MarkIT 26 Economic Sentiment Indicator, Germany 25 = ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment Germany Source: Eurostat 26 - Source: ZEW 26 Truck kilometers traveled and industrial output, Germany sentix Economic Index, Germany Difference from same month last year kilometers traveled (1 month delay) Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 15% industrial output (3-month average) 2% 1% 15% 1% 5% 5% % % 2-5% -5% -1% -1% -15% -2-15% -2% - -2% Source: German Federal Office for Goods and Transport (BAG), Destatis. -25% - Source: sentix

4 bayme vbm vbw January 216 Eurozone 2 2 Eurozone Differentiated signals The development of the leading indicators for the Eurozone is also quite differentiated. The Economic Sentiment Indicator, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW- Konjunkturindikator) and the Purchasing Managers Index for the Industry in the Euro area (Einkaufsmanagerindex) all improved. The latter rose to 53.1 points, placing it well above the growth threshold. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) on the other hand went down, due to both the assessment of the business situation and the business expectations. The ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone also dropped. While the assessment of the business situation improved compared to three months ago, business expectations for the upcoming months decreased noticeably. sentix Economic Index, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 25 = EU Eurozone Sorce: sentix Source: Eurostat Purchasing Managers' Index, Eurozone manufacturing, 5 = no change ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment Eurozone Source: MarkIT Source: ZEW ifo Economic Climate for the Eurozone 25 = 25 Economic climate Assessment for economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months Source: ifo Institut

5 bayme vbm vbw January 216 World economy 3 3 World economy Regressive leading indicators for the world economy Almost all of the leading indicators for the world economy point downwards. Solely the Container Throughput-Index (Containerumschlagsindex) recovered slightly. The Baltic Dry Index, on the other hand, dropped to its lowest level in more than ten years. The OECD-leading indicator remained significantly below its long-time average. The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy and the Purchasing Managers Index (Einkaufsmanagerindex) for the industry both declined. The latter now sits exactly on the growth threshold. The ifo World Economic Climate Index also dropped. The assessment of both the current economic situation and the business expectations was worse than three months ago. Bundesbank leading indicator for the world economy long-term avarage = Source:Bundesbank Purchasing Managers' Index manufacturing, worldwide, 5 = no change; weighted average of Eurozone, UK, USA, Japan, China, India, Brasil and Russia ifo World Economic Climate Index, 25 = 1 Economic climate Assessment of economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months Sources: ISM, CFLP, MarkIT, ow n calculations. Source: ifo Institut 26 Container Throughput Index and World Trade seasonally adjusted, 28 = RWI/ISL -Index World Trade Sources: RWI, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

6 bayme vbm vbw December215 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators 4 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators The ifo Business Climate is a widely observed early indicator for economic development in Germany. It is based on around 7, monthly survey responses of companies in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone as well as the ifo World Economic Climate Index are based on a survey of 1, or 3 economic experts respectively. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) is based on estimations by purchasing managers of industrial companies. The PMI for the Industry in the Euro area is calculated by us. It conveys the average of the PMIs of the Eurozone, of the USA, the UK, Japan, China and Brazil, weighted according to their share of world GDP. The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is based on a survey of businesses from industry, trade, construction as well as service providers and consumers. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) is based on a survey of over 3 financial experts. The toll statistics account for the mileage of trucks that are liable to tolls on German autobahns measured in kms. The change of the amount compared with the same month of the previous year (adjusted for the calender effect) serves as indicator. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) is based on a survey of 2,5 private and insitutional financial market participants. The OECD-leading indicator is made up of various individual indicators from 33 countries (OECD-members such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy is made up of several global indicators (Purchasing Managers Index for industry, Purchasing Managers Index for services, consumer climate for the current economic situation, consumer climate for business expectations, S&P Global 12 stock index). The Baltic Dry Index is an important price index for tracking international shipping costs for dry bulk commodities. The Container Throughput Index is a joint project of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (RWI) and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL). It is based on market observations in 72 international ports that together make up about percent of the worldwide container handling of manufactured goods.

7 bayme vbm vbw December215 Contact / Publication Details 5 Volker Leinweber Head of Economy Department Phone +49 () Telefax +49 () volker.leinweber@vbw-bayern.de Tobias Kochta Economy Department Phone +49 () Telefax +49 () tobias.kochta@vbw-bayern.de Publisher: bayme Bayerischer Unternehmensverband Metall und Elektro e. V. vbm Verband der Bayerischen Metall- und Elektro-Industrie e. V. vbw Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. Max-Joseph-Straße München bayme vbm vbw January 216