Information. Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance. March 2016

Transcription

1 Information Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance March 216

2 Table of Contents X Table of Contents 1 Germany 1 2 Eurozone World Economy...3 Appendix: Description of leading indicators 4 Contact / Publication details..5

3 Germany 1 1 Germany Leading indicators continue decline The leading indicators for Germany have fallen again. The ifo Business Climate Index (ifo-geschäftsklimaindex) decreased mainly due to worsened business expectations. The assessment of the business situation went up marginally. The Purchasing Managers Index for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) decreased noticeably. At 5.2 points it no longer lies within the growth threshold. The Economic Sentiment Indicator and the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW- Konjunkturindikator) also both lost ground again. Solely the Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) recovered slightly. Expectations now lie just above the zero line again. The data on the mileage of trucks (according to the toll statistics) currently do not provide a conclusive indication as an extension of the toll road network in July 215 means that statistics cannot be compared to the previous year. ifo-business Climate Index Germany manufacturing, construction and trade, 25 = Business Climate Assessment of business situation Business expectations Purchasing Managers' Index Germany, manufacturing, 5 = no change Source: ifo Institut 25 Source: MarkIT Economic Sentiment Indicator, Germany 25 = Source: Eurostat ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Germany Source: ZEW Truck kilometers traveled and industrial output, Germany Difference from same month last year kilometers traveled (1 month delay) sentix Economic Index, Germany Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 15% industrial output (3-month average) 2% 1% 15% 1% 5% 5% % % 2-5% -5% -1% -1% -2-15% -15% -2% - -2% Source: German Federal Office for Goods and Transport (BAG), Destatis. -25% - Source: sentix

4 Eurozone 2 2 Eurozone Leading indicators also on a negative trend The leading indicators for the Eurozone also point downwards. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) sank due to the worsened assessment of the business situation. Business expectations recovered at a low level. The Economic Sentiment Indicator went down for the Eurozone as well as for the EU overall. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) and the Purchasing Managers Index for the Industry in the Euro area (Einkaufsmanagerindex) also declined. At 51.2 points the latter remains just above the growth threshold. The latest data for the ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone, which are published quarterly (current figures from January 216) also dropped. While the assessment of the business situation improved compared to three months ago, business expectations for the upcoming months decreased noticeably. sentix Economic Index, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 25 = Datenreihen1 Datenreihen Sorce: sentix Source: Eurostat Purchasing Managers' Index, Eurozone manufacturing, 5 = no change 55 5 ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Euro area Source: MarkIT Source: ZEW ifo Economic Climate for the Eurozone 25 = 25 Economic climate Assessment for economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months Source: ifo Institut

5 Information Economic Outlook - Leading indicators at a glance World Economy 3 3 World Economy Negative development Almost all of the leading indicators for the world economy show a negative development. The OECD-leading indicator and the German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy declined further and now lie markedly below their long-term average. The Purchasing Managers Index (Einkaufsmanagerindex) for the industry sank below average for the first time in three years. It now sits at 49.8 points. Solely the freight indices point upwards. However, the Baltic Dry Index remains on an extremely low level. The latest data for the World Economic Climate Index, which are published quarterly (current figures from January 216) also dropped. The assessment of both the current economic situation and the business expectations was worse than three months ago. OECD leading indicator langjähriger Durchschnitt = 14 Bundesbank leading indicator for the world economy long-term avarage = Quelle: OECD 94 Source:Bundesbank Purchasing Managers' Index manufacturing, worldwide, 5 = no change; weighted average of Eurozone, UK, USA, Japan, China, India, Brasil and Russia ifo World Economic Climate Index, 25 = 1 Economic climate Assessment of economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months Sources: ISM, CFLP, MarkIT, ow n calculations. Source: ifo Institut Baltic Dry Index Container Throughput Index and World Trade 215/ seasonally adjusted, 28 = 13 RWI/ISL -Index World Trade Source: bloomberg Sources: RWI, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

6 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators 4 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators The Ifo Business Climate is a widely observed leading indicator for economic development in Germany. It is based on ca. 7, monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone as well as the ifo World Economic Climate Index are based on a survey of 1, or 3 economic experts respectively. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) is based on estimations by purchasing managers of industrial companies. The PMI for the Industry in the world economy is calculated by us. It conveys the average of the PMIs of the Eurozone, of the USA, the UK, Japan, China and Brasil, weighted according to their share of world GDP. The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is based on a survey of businesses from industry, trade, construction as well as service providers and consumers. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) is based on a survey of over 3 financial experts. The toll statistics account for the mileage of trucks that are liable to tolls on German autobahns measured in kms. The change of the amount compared with the same month of the previous year (adjusted for the calender effect) serves as indicator. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) is based on a survey of 2,5 private and insitutional financial market participants. The OECD-leading indicator is made up of various individual indicators from 33 countries (OECD-members such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian and South Africa). The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy is made up of several global indicators (Purchasing Managers Index for industry, Purchasing Managers Index for services, consumer climate for the current economic situation, consumer climate for business expectations, S&P Global 12 stock index). The Baltic Dry Index is an important price index for tracking international shipping costs for dry bulk commodities. The Container Throughput Index is a joint project of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (RWI) and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL). It is based on market observations in 72 international ports that together make up about percent of the worldwide container handling of manufactured goods.

7 Contact / Publication details 5 Volker Leinweber Head of Economy Department Phone +49 () Telefax +49 () volker.leinweber@vbw-bayern.de Tobias Kochta Economy Department Phone +49 () Telefax +49 () tobias.kochta@vbw-bayern.de Publisher: bayme Bayerischer Unternehmensverband Metall und Elektro e. V. vbm Verband der Bayerischen Metall- und Elektro-Industrie e. V. vbw Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. Max-Joseph-Straße München bayme vbm vbw March 216