Information. Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance. March

Transcription

1 Information Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance March 17

2 bayme vbm vbw March 17 Content X Table of Contents 1 Germany Eurozone World Economy... 3 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators... 4

3 bayme vbm vbw March 17 Germany 1 1 Germany Still no consistent development of leading indicators Leading indicators for the German economy still do not show a consistent picture. However, the Ifo Business Climate Index (Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex) and the sentix Economic index have both improved in regard to expectations as well as the assessment of the situation. The Purchasing Managers Index for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) also increased up to 56.8 points. According to toll statistics, the data on the mileage of the trucks has risen slightly more than last month. The Economic Sentiment Indicator as well as the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) have gone down. ifo-business Climate Index Germany manufacturing, construction and trade, 5 = Business Climate Assessment of business situation Business expectations Purchasing Managers' Index Germany, manufacturing, 5 = no change Source: ifo Institut Source: MarkIT Economic Sentiment Indicator, Germany 5 = Source: Eurostat ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Germany Source: ZEW Truck kilometers traveled and industrial output, Germany Difference from same month last year kilometers traveled (1 month delay) sentix Economic Index, Germany Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index % industrial output (3-month average) % 15% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -% - - -% Source: German Federal Office for Goods and Transport (BAG), Destatis. -25% - Source: sentix

4 bayme vbm vbw March 17 Eurozone 2 2 Eurozone Mainly positive development of leading indicators Leading indicators for the eurozone are mainly showing a rising tendency. Due to higher expectations as well as a more positive assessment of the situation, the Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) went up. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) improved slightly not only for the eurozone but for the EU as a whole. At the same time, the Purchasing Managers Index for the Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) increased by.2 up to 55.4 points. Merely the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) has been ailing recently. The current quarterly Ifo Index for the Eurozone was published in February. The balance of positive and negative assessments of the current situation rose from +2. to +8.3 percentage points. The expectation balance improved noticeably from to points. Thus, the climate index rose from +8.2 to points. sentix Economic Index, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 5 = EU Eurozone Sorce: sentix Source: Eurostat Purchasing Managers' Index, Eurozone manufacturing, 5 = no change Source: MarkIT ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Euro area Source: ZEW ifo Economic Climate for the Eurozone balances Economic climate Assessment for economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months Source: ifo Institut

5 Information Economic Outlook - Leading indicators at a glance bayme vbm vbw March 17 World Economy 3 3 World Economy Global leading indicators show rising tendency All global leading indicators are showing a positive trend. The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) has continuously improved as well as the OECD business climate index (OECD-Geschäftsklima). The Purchasing Managers Index for the global Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) increased by.6 up to 54.3 points and both freight indices show a rising tendency, too. The quarterly published Ifo Index for the world economy has increased as well. The balance of the assessment of the current situation has risen by 6.3 points. With -9.4 percent points it does however stay in the negative range. The expectation balance improved by.9 up to +15. points. As a consequence, the climate index went up from -1.2 to +2.6 points, again above the base line. OECD business climate index long-time average =, seasonally adjusted 14 Bundesbank leading indicator for the world economy long-term avarage = Source: OECD 94 Source:Bundesbank Purchasing Managers' Index manufacturing, worldwide, 5 = no change; weighted average of Eurozone, UK, USA, Japan, China, India, Brasil and Russia ifo World Economic Climate Balances Economic climate Assessment of economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months Sources: ISM, CFLP, MarkIT, ow n calculations. - Source: ifo Institut Baltic Dry Index Container Throughput Index and World Trade 16/17 seasonally adjusted, 8 = RWI/ISL -Index World Trade Source: bloomberg Sources: RWI, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

6 bayme vbm vbw March 17 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators 4 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators The Ifo Business Climate is a widely observed leading indicator for economic development in Germany. It is based on ca. 7, monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The Ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone as well as the ifo World Economic Climate Index are based on a survey of 1, or 3 economic experts respectively. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) is based on estimations by purchasing managers of industrial companies. The PMI for the Industry in the world economy is calculated by us. It conveys the average of the PMIs of the Eurozone, the USA, the UK, Japan, China and Brasil, weighted according to their share of world GDP. The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is based on a survey of businesses from industry, trade, construction as well as service providers and consumers. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) is based on a survey of over 3 financial experts. The toll statistics account for the mileage of trucks that are liable to tolls on German autobahns measured in kms. The change of the amount compared with the same month of the previous year (adjusted for the calendar effect) serves as an indicator. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) is based on a survey of 2,5 private and institutional financial market participants. The OECD business climate index (OECD-Geschäftsklimaindex) is the weighted average of business climate indexes from 33 countries and is based on company surveys (OECD-members such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy is made up of several global indicators (Purchasing Managers Index for industry, Purchasing Managers Index for services, consumer climate for the current economic situation, consumer climate for business expectations, S&P Global 1 stock index). The Baltic Dry Index is an important price index for tracking international shipping costs for dry bulk commodities. The Container Throughput Index is a joint project of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (RWI) and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL). It is based on market observations in 72 international ports that together make up about percent of the worldwide container handling of manufactured goods.

7 bayme vbm vbw March 17 Contact / Imprint 5 Volker Leinweber Head of Economics Phone +49-() Fax +49-() volker.leinweber@vbw-bayern.de As a general rule, all information provided in this publication relates to both the female and male form. To facilitate readability, specific reference to the female form was in most cases dispensed with. Publisher: bayme Bayerischer Unternehmensverband Metall und Elektro e. V. vbm Verband der Bayerischen Metall- und Elektro-Industrie e. V. vbw Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. Max-Joseph-Straße München bayme vbm vbw March 17