Information. Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance. February

Transcription

1 Information Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance February 17

2 bayme vbm vbw February 17 Content X Table of Contents 1 Germany Eurozone World Economy... 3 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert. Imprint... 5

3 bayme vbm vbw February 17 Germany 1 1 Germany Mixed development of leading indicators Again, the leading indicators for the German economy do not show a consistent picture. The Purchasing Managers Index for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) went up to 56.5 points, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) managed to improve as well. The Ifo Business Climate Index (Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex) on the other hand has declined due to considerably lower expectations while the assessment of the situation turned out to be more positive. The same can be said about the sentix Economic index. The Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased slightly, while according to toll statistics the data on the mileage of trucks rose slower than last month. ifo-business Climate Index Germany manufacturing, construction and trade, 5 = Business Climate Assessment of business situation Business expectations Purchasing Managers' Index Germany, manufacturing, 5 = no change Source: ifo Institut Source: MarkIT Economic Sentiment Indicator, Germany 5 = ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Germany Source: Eurostat Source: ZEW Truck kilometers traveled and industrial output, Germany Difference from same month last year kilometers traveled (1 month delay) sentix Economic Index, Germany Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index % industrial output (3-month average) % 15% 15% 1% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -% - - -% % - Source: sentix Source: German Federal Office for Goods and Transport (BAG), Destatis.

4 bayme vbm vbw February 17 Eurozone 2 2 Eurozone Leading indicators do not show a clear picture The development of the leading indicators for the eurozone is mixed as well. Due to lower expectations, the Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) decreased slightly, in spite of a better assessment of the situation. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the eurozone improved marginally while the ESI for the whole EU decreased to a small extend. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW- Konjunkturindikator) stagnated. At the same time, the Purchasing Managers Index for the Industry (Einkaufsmanager-index) increased by.3 points up to 55.2 points. The current quarterly Ifo Index for the Eurozone shows a positive trend. The balance of positive and negative assessments of the current situation rose from +2. to +8.3 percentage points. The expectation balance improved noticeably from to points. The climate index thus rose from +8.2 to points. sentix Economic Index, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 5 = EU Eurozone Sorce: sentix Source: Eurostat Purchasing Managers' Index, Eurozone manufacturing, 5 = no change Source: MarkIT ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Euro area Source: ZEW ifo Economic Climate for the Eurozone balances Economic climate Assessment for economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months Source: ifo Institut

5 Information Economic Outlook - Leading indicators at a glance bayme vbm vbw February 17 World Economy 3 3 World Economy Mainly positive development of global leading indicators Most of the global leading indicators are showing a positive trend. The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) has continuously improved as well as the Purchasing Managers Index for the global Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) that currently stands at 53.7 points. The Container Throughput Index managed to increase to a considerable extend while the Baltic Dry Index has recently been ailing. The most recent quarterly Ifo Index for the world economy was published in November. The index has improved albeit remaining below its long-term-average. Reasons for the rise are more optimistic expectations. The assessment of the current situation on the other hand remained unchanged for the third time. OECD business climate index long-time average =, seasonally adjusted 14 Bundesbank leading indicator for the world economy long-term avarage = Source: OECD 94 Source:Bundesbank Purchasing Managers' Index manufacturing, worldwide, 5 = no change; weighted average of Eurozone, UK, USA, Japan, China, India, Brasil and Russia ifo World Economic Climate Index, 5 = 1 Economic climate Assessment of economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months Sources: ISM, CFLP, MarkIT, ow n calculations. Source: ifo Institut Baltic Dry Index Container Throughput Index and World Trade 16/17 seasonally adjusted, 8 = RWI/ISL -Index World Trade Source: bloomberg Sources: RWI, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

6 bayme vbm vbw February 17 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators 4 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators The Ifo Business Climate is a widely observed leading indicator for economic development in Germany. It is based on ca. 7, monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The Ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone as well as the ifo World Economic Climate Index are based on a survey of 1, or 3 economic experts respectively. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) is based on estimations by purchasing managers of industrial companies. The PMI for the Industry in the world economy is calculated by us. It conveys the average of the PMIs of the Eurozone, the USA, the UK, Japan, China and Brasil, weighted according to their share of world GDP. The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is based on a survey of businesses from industry, trade, construction as well as service providers and consumers. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) is based on a survey of over 3 financial experts. The toll statistics account for the mileage of trucks that are liable to tolls on German autobahns measured in kms. The change of the amount compared with the same month of the previous year (adjusted for the calendar effect) serves as an indicator. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-konjunkturindex) is based on a survey of 2,5 private and institutional financial market participants. The OECD business climate index (OECD-Geschäftsklimaindex) is the weighted average of business climate indexes from 33 countries and is based on company surveys (OECD-members such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy is made up of several global indicators (Purchasing Managers Index for industry, Purchasing Managers Index for services, consumer climate for the current economic situation, consumer climate for business expectations, S&P Global 1 stock index). The Baltic Dry Index is an important price index for tracking international shipping costs for dry bulk commodities. The Container Throughput Index is a joint project of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (RWI) and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL). It is based on market observations in 72 international ports that together make up about percent of the worldwide container handling of manufactured goods.

7 bayme vbm vbw February 17 Contact / Imprint 5 Volker Leinweber Head of Economics Phone +49-() Fax +49-() volker.leinweber@vbw-bayern.de Tobias Kochta Economics Phone +49-() Fax +49-() tobias.kochta@vbw-bayern.de Imprint Alle Angaben dieser Publikation beziehen sich grundsätzlich sowohl auf die weibliche als auch auf die männliche Form. Zur besseren Lesbarkeit wurde meist auf die zusätzliche Bezeichnung in weiblicher Form verzichtet. Publisher: bayme Bayerischer Unternehmensverband Metall und Elektro e. V. vbm Verband der Bayerischen Metall- und Elektro-Industrie e. V. vbw Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. Max-Joseph-Straße München bayme vbm vbw February 17