DOI: / Industrial Shift

Transcription

1 Industrial Shift

2 Also by Joe Atikian CUBA UNDER EMBARGO: The Macro Impact SAVING MONEY: The Missing Link

3 Industrial Shift: The Structure of the New World Economy Joe Atikian

4 industrial shift Copyright Joe Atikian, 2013 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 ISBN All rights reserved. First published in 2013 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN in the United States a division of St. Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN: PDF ISBN: doi: / Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.

5 Contents List of Tables List of Figures vii viii 1 Introduction 1 2 What Is Industrial Structure? 7 Extract, transform, deliver 8 Guns, butter, and haircuts 9 Distortions and perceptions 11 Data sources 13 Outline 14 3 The Global Status Quo 16 Global structure 17 Geographic distribution 18 Wealth and the three industrial sectors 20 Agriculture vs. wealth 20 Manufacturing vs. wealth 23 Services vs. wealth 24 4 Speeding Up, Slowing Down 28 A change of direction 29 The pace of change 32 National stability and structural shift 35 A world of change 37 Future shift an estimate 42 Predictable uncertainty 45 v

6 vi Contents 5 Power Shift: East and West 50 Industry, wealth, and power 51 Mapping the agricultural shift 51 Mapping the manufacturing shift 54 Rank and decline 57 The service revolution 62 A taste of the new world economy 65 6 Power Shift: North and South 67 The missing shift 68 The island way 69 From crisis to stagnation 71 The economic climate 77 7 The Isolated Islands 81 The economist s prize 82 A powerful attraction 85 8 Farms and Factories 90 Industrial shift: the cause 91 Industrial shift: the effects 93 The Eastern industrial revolution Where the Jobs Are 105 Exchange, exports, and deficits 106 US jobs in crisis 111 East meets West 114 Productivity strikes back 116 Appendix A 122 Appendix B 124 Appendix C 125 Bibliography 131 Index 133

7 List of Tables 3.1 Agricultural concentration vs. output, Correlation of sector share to wealth Global agricultural output growth, Factory output rankings, 1970 and UN Regional Groupings Focus on Africa s GDP and population growth Shifts in US jobs by sub-sector, ranked by 2010 wage, vii

8 List of Figures 3.1 Global industrial structure, Agricultural share in GDP, by country, Agricultural share vs. GDP per capita: all countries, Manufacturing share vs. GDP per capita: all countries, Services share vs. GDP per capita: all countries, Velocity of agricultural share vs. GDP per capita, all countries Selected countries with a falling agricultural share, Selected countries with a rising agricultural share, Argentina agricultural share vs. GDP per capita, South Korea agricultural share vs. GDP per capita, Three sector trend in global industrial structure, Trend in global agricultural share vs. GDP, Trend in world agricultural output and output per capita, Rise in global GDP per capita as agricultural share falls 43 viii

9 List of Figures ix 4.10 Sweden historic agricultural share vs. GDP per capita, China recent agricultural share vs. GDP per capita, US historic agricultural share vs. GDP per capita, Total percentage change in agricultural share: all countries, Rising/falling agricultural share by country, Change in regional manufacturing as a share of world GDP, Change in rank of manufacturing countries by size, Trend in agricultural share by region, Brazil agricultural share vs. GDP per capita, World regions, agricultural share vs. GDP per capita, Australia and Cuba, agricultural share vs. GDP per capita, US China trade deficit vs. job trend, Sweden two-sector output trend, Canada two-sector output trend, Total percentage change in manufacturing share: OECD countries, Canada manufacturing sub-sector output ranked by value, China two-sector output trend,

10 x List of Figures 8.7 Three country trends in manufacturing share, Trend in Canadian manufacturing jobs and exchange rate, Trend in German unemployment and trade surplus, US two-sector output trend, Trend in US and China manufacturing jobs,