CHI HA PAURA DELL INTELLIGENZA ARTIFICIALE?

Transcription

1 13 th Edition Trento Festival Work and Technology Trento, 31 May 3 June CHI HA PAURA DELL INTELLIGENZA ARTIFICIALE? Stefano Scarpetta, Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD

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3 Sarà diverso questa volta? La corsa tra Tecnologia and Istruzione Prosperity Digital revolution Social, labour market tension Prosperity Industrial revolution Social, labour market tension Technology Education Inspired by The race between technology and education Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)

4 La disoccupazione tecnologica: mito o realtà? Employment-to-population ratios, age , 26 and 216 % 8 2 years ago (1996) Pre-crisis level (26) Current (216, ) Italy France European Union OECD United States G7 Canada United Kingdom Japan Germany 4

5 ' of units I mega trends : non solo rivoluzione digitale The robots are coming Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robots Populations are ageing Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64) OECD average The world has become more integrated Share of business sector jobs sustained by consumers in foreign markets 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% %

6 Countries are experiencing rapid demographic change Change in the working age population (215=1) 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,9,8, Australia (+27%) United States (+1%) UK (+6%) Canada (+6%) Korea (%) France (+1%) Germany (-23%) Italy (-23%) Japan (-28%)

7 Brazil United States Japan Australia India Indonesia China Turkey UK France Italy Russia South Africa Canada Mexico Germany Korea Brazil United States Japan China Australia Russia Indonesia India Italy UK France Turkey Canada South Africa Mexico Germany Korea The world has become more integrated through trade A. Exports (% of GDP) B. Imports (% of GDP)

8 Winners take (almost) all? Il gap di produttività tra le imprese globali più produttive e le altre è aumentato Labour productivity: value added per worker, A. Manufacturing B. Services Frontier firms 4 Frontier firms Laggard firms 1 Laggard firms -1-1

9 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Manufacturing and Production Computers and Electronics Equipment Maintenance Complex Problem Solving Static Strength Verbal Abilities Il futuro è già realtà The disappearing middle: jobs by skill level (% change in employment shares ) High skill Middle skill Low skill,2,15,1,5 -,5 -,1 -,15 Emerging skill gaps (unweighted OECD average) France United Kingdom Italy OECD Average Germany United States Canada Japan Knowledge Skills Abilities Only a minority of jobs at risk of full automation (as a % of all jobs) Risk of significant change (5-7%) New vacancies for gig workers (May 216=1) 9 Source: Oxford Internet Institute, Online Labor Index

10 La polarizzazione all interno dei comparti produttivi più che attraverso I cambiamenti nella struttura produttiva Percentage-point change in polarisation between 1997 and 27 Within-sector Between-sector

11 Nell era dell IA, il rischio di automazione è concentrato tra I lavoratori a basse competenze e salari Highest risk in routine jobs with low skill and education requirement BUT low risk applies to a broad range from professionals to social workers Automation mostly affects manufacturing industry and agriculture BUT some service sectors are highly automatable too. The risk of automation falls monotonically with hourly wages The risk of automation also falls with educational attainment No evidence of polarisation or rising risk at the high end: automation risk declines with skills, education and hourly wages Young people are the most at risk of automation, followed by older workers, with disappearing student jobs and entry positions.

12 Share of jobs at risk Non è chiaro se le donne saranno svantaggiate rispetto agli uomini Share of jobs at risk of automation, by industry and gender 2 industries with the highest share of jobs at risk, 29 OECD countries/regions Male share (average risk of automation) Female share (average risk of automation) Employment High Low Food and beverage service activities Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and Wholesale and retail trade and repair of Land transport and transport via pipelines Manufacture of food products Manufacture of fabricated metal products Specialized construction activities Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and Manufacture of machinery and equipment Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding Residential care activities Legal and accounting activities Manufacture of computer, electronic and Financial service activities Human health activities Social work activities without accommodation Public administration and defence Computer programming, consultancy and Education ,5 5 7,5 1

13 Areas of robots usage index L adozione delle nuove tecnologie non è inevitabile In which areas is the application of robots most/least acceptable? Source: Eurobarometer.

14 USA AUS GBR JPN RUS DEU TUR CAN ITA FRA MEX KOR In molti paesi la precarizzazione del lavoro è già una realtà Share of involuntary part-time workers (as a share of total employment) Share of temporary employment (as a share of dependent employment) 1 9 ITA ESP AUS % 6 5 FRA GBR DEU USA TUR RUS 1 5

15 I lavoratori autonomi hanno una probabilità maggiore di avere una remunerazione al di sotto del salario minimo Proportion of workers below 75% of the minimum wage Employee Own-account workers PRT POL HUN GRC CZE ESP SVK NLD USA IRL GBR EST BEL LVA LUX FRA SVN Source: OECD estimates based on EU-SILC for EU countries and the March Supplement of the CPS for the United States.

16 Molti lavoratori non sono pronti al nuovo mondo del lavoro digitale Share of and year-olds performing at Level 2 or 3 in problem solving in technology-rich environments 16

17 Il livello di istruzione non coincide con il livello di competenze (giovani anni): 33 Less than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary

18 Cambiamento incrementale, o rivoluzione copernicana? Lifelong learning: from rhetoric to reality Participation rate in training (%) Regulation: Balancing flexibility with security high skilled low skilled Providing better guidance on how to classify workers Reducing incentives to take up new forms of work A better balance in burden of proof of work status Ensuring fair pay for work Social protection: Repair or replace? Social dialogue: Strengthen or reinvent? Effective access to social protection for the self-employed Trade union members as a % of all employees European union Japan United States 18

19 Migliori regole per la gig economy, anche per le imprese e non solo per I lavoratori! Need a level playing field between businesses success should be linked to superior product/service/business model, not to avoidance of tax/regulation In the end, business will foot the bill through higher taxes Over-use of such employment arrangements could also have negative effects on productivity 19

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