Is This Time Different? The Opportunities and Challenges of Artificial Intelligence

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1 Is This Time Different? The Opportunities and Challenges of Artificial Intelligence Jason Furman Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Washington, DC December 12, 2016

2 The Recent Concern Over Robots Taking Our Jobs CNN Money, January

3 People Were Also Worried in 1980 New York Times, September

4 And in 1960 Wall Street Journal, July

5 And in 1935 Washington Post, January

6 And in 1812 Reward Poster for Luddite Attacks Near Leeds, March

7 The Unemployment Rate Has Been Roughly Trendless Since We Have Measured It Percent of Labor Force Unemployment Rate, Nov Average, Note: Data prior to 1929 are annual rates for individuals 14 and older. Data from 1929 to 1947 are monthly rates for individuals 16 and older from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Data from 1948 to 2016 are monthly rates for individuals 16 and older derived from the Current Population Survey. Source: Census Bureau; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey; CEA calculations. 6

8 But We Have Become Richer in Material Goods 2010 U.S. Dollars 60,000 Canada Germany 50,000 Japan United States 40,000 Real GDP per Capita, G-7 Countries France Italy United Kingdom 30,000 20,000 10, Note: Real GDP per capita using 2010 prices and exchange rates. Source: National sources via Haver Analytics. 7

9 And Also Richer in Leisure Hours 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 Total Annual Hours Worked per Worker, G-7 Countries 1,600 United States United Kingdom 1,400 Canada France 1,200 Italy Japan Germany 1, Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 8

10 Our Recent Concern is Too Little Productivity Growth, Not Too Much Percent, Annual Rate Labor Productivity Growth, G-7 Countries United States Canada Japan Germany France United Kingdom Italy Source: Conference Board, Total Economy Database; CEA calculations. 9

11 Robots Have Helped Productivity, But Not Enough to Offset Other Forces Slowing Productivity Growth Estimated Worldwide Annual Supply of Industrial Robots, Thousands of Units Source: International Federation for Robotics, World Robotics

12 The Probability of an Occupation s Automation Varies Dramatically Across the Wage Spectrum Probability of Automation by an Occupation's Median Hourly Wage Median Probability of Automation, Percent Less than 20 Dollars 20 to 40 Dollars More than 40 Dollars Median Hourly Wage in Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics; Frey and Osborne (2013); CEA calculations. 11

13 Similarly, It Varies Across the Educational Attainment Spectrum Share of Jobs with Highly Automatable Skills, by Education Percent Less than High School High School Degree or Equivalent 8 Trade School Certificate 6 Associates Degree 1 0 Bachelors Degree Graduate Degree Source: Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn (2016) calculations based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC)

14 High and Rising Inequality is a Problem Across Major Advanced Economies, But Particularly for the United States Percent Share of Income Earned by Top 1 Percent, G-7 Countries United States United Kingdom Canada France Italy Japan Germany Source: World Wealth and Income Database 13

15 The U.S. Decline in Prime-Age Male Labor Force Has Been Steeper Than in Almost Every Other Advanced Economy Percent Prime-Age Male Labor Force Participation Rates Across the OECD Israel Italy United States Norway Finland Ireland Belgium Australia Turkey Poland Denmark Canada Korea Austria Portugal United Chile Hungary Netherlands New Zealand Estonia France Germany Spain Slovenia Greece Sweden Slovak Republic Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Czech Republic Japan Switzerland Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 14

16 Policy Implications We Need More AI 1. Investing in Basic Research 2. Fostering a Workforce to Develop AI 3. Increasing Competition 4. Supporting Privacy 5. Promoting Cybersecurity We Need to Help Workers Thrive With More AI 1. Educating Youth for the Jobs of the Future 2. Expanding Access to Training and Re-Training 3. Empowering Workers and Job Seekers 4. Modernizing and Strengthening the Social Safety Net 5. Modernizing Tax and Economic Policy 15

17 Is This Time Different? The Opportunities and Challenges of Artificial Intelligence Jason Furman Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Washington, DC December 12, 2016

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