18 TH OECD/JAPAN SEMINAR EDUCATION Andreas Schleicher Director for Education and Skills, OECD

Transcription

1 18 TH OECD/JAPAN SEMINAR EDUCATION 2030 Andreas Schleicher Director for Education and Skills, OECD

2 The kind of things that are easy to teach are now easy to automate, digitize or outsource

3 Changes in the nature of work Trends in different tasks in occupations (United States) Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution Routine manual Nonroutine manual Routine cognitive Nonroutine analytic Nonroutine interpersonal Source: Autor, David H. and Brendan M. Price "The Changing Task Composition of the US Labor Market: An Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003)." MIT Mimeograph, June.

4 Where people lost and gained jobs between % Public administration, education, health and other services Financial, insurance and real estate activities Wholesale, retail, hotels, food services and transport Manufacturing Agriculture, forestry and fishing Professional, scientific, technical and other business services Information and communication Construction Mining and utilities Gains, thousands GRC ESP PRT SVN ITA NLD FIN DNK CZE POL IRL BEL FRA SVK HUN SWE AUT GBR EST DEU EU Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard OECD 2015

5 Robotics

6 Google Autonomous Vehicle >1m km, one minor accident, occasional human intervention Inspired by: Center for curriculum redesign (CCR)

7 Inspired by: Center for curriculum redesign (CCR) Augmented Reality

8 8 The Digital Economy is the economy TomTom has 5 trillion data points on traffic, adding 6 billion per day. BMW cars have 50 sensors, 7 cameras, could recognize open parking spots for other cars GE expects to connect all its machines to the Internet, making them smarter and more efficient Tesco exploits data on more than 100 market baskets a second and 6 million transactions a day

9 unleashing firms that gain scale without mass 50$B in sales, employees, 1m / employee US Average = 120k / employee 70$B in sales employees 600k / employee 200k / employee

10 10 and leading to bifurcated productivity growth. Labour productivity growth (2001 = 100) Manufacturing Services Source: OECD, The Future of Productivity, forthcoming

11 A lot more to come 3D printing Synthetic biology Brain enhancements Nanomaterials Etc. Inspired by: Center for curriculum redesign (CCR)

12 The Race between Technology and Education Prosperity Digital revolution Social pain Industrial revolution Prosperity Social pain Universal public schooling Technology Education Inspired by The race between technology and education Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)

13 14 Source: WEF 2015 Global Risks

14 Mexico United States Israel United Kingdom Italy Australia New Zealand Japan Canada Germany Netherlands Luxembourg Finland Sweden Czech Republic Norway Denmark Turkey Greece France Hungary Belgium 15 Growing unequal Gini Coefficients for OECD countries, in 1985 and

15 France Netherlands Switzerland Germany Austria Norway England Japan Australia New Zealand United States Korea 16 Home alone: the rise of single-person households Number of one person households early-mid-2000s to (projected) Early-mid-2000s

16 Mexico Chile Greece Norway Sweden Iceland Israel Italy United States Spain Denmark Luxembourg Australia Ireland United Kingdom Hungary Canada Finland Austria Turkey Liechtenstein Czech Republic Estonia Portugal Slovenia Slovak Republic New Zealand Germany Netherlands France Switzerland Poland Belgium Japan Macao-China Hong Kong-China Korea Singapore Chinese Taipei Shanghai-China Poverty is not destiny PISA math skills of 15-year-olds by decile of social background Source: PISA 2012

17 Increasing migration towards the developed world Net migration (in millions of people) into regions, with countries grouped by income level and OECD members, High income Low income OECD members Middle income Source : OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education. Primary source: World Bank (2012), World Databank: Net Migration.

18 19 What does all this mean for education?

19 Education in the past

20 Education 2030

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22 Knowledge Concepts, processes, methods, tools

23 Examples of disciplinary knowledge Reading, writing Mathematics Natural sciences Social sciences Foreign languages History Economics, politics and law Geography Art Physical education, health education

24 25 Math teaching math teaching PISA = reason mathematically and understand, formulate, employ and interpret mathematical concepts, facts and procedures

25 Viet Nam Macao-China Shanghai-China Turkey Uruguay Greece Hong Kong-China Chinese Taipei Portugal Brazil Serbia Bulgaria Singapore Netherlands Japan Argentina Costa Rica Lithuania Tunisia New Zealand Czech Republic Israel Korea Latvia Qatar Italy United States Estonia Ireland Australia Mexico United Arab Emirates Norway Malaysia Kazakhstan United Kingdom Romania OECD average Albania Colombia Indonesia Sweden Belgium Peru Thailand Denmark Russian Federation Canada Slovak Republic Hungary Germany Croatia Luxembourg Montenegro Chile Poland Finland Austria Slovenia France Switzerland Jordan Liechtenstein Spain Iceland Index of exposure to word problems 26 Focus on word problems Fig I.3.1a Formal math situated in a word problem, where it is obvious to students what mathematical knowledge and skills are needed

26 Sweden Iceland Tunisia Argentina Switzerland Brazil Luxembourg Ireland Netherlands New Zealand Costa Rica Austria Liechtenstein Malaysia Indonesia Denmark United Kingdom Uruguay Lithuania Germany Australia Chile OECD average Slovak Republic Thailand Qatar Finland Portugal Colombia Mexico Peru Czech Republic Israel Italy Belgium Hong Kong-China Poland France Spain Montenegro Greece Turkey Slovenia Viet Nam Hungary Bulgaria Kazakhstan Chinese Taipei Canada United States Estonia Romania Latvia Serbia Japan Korea Croatia Albania Russian Federation United Arab Emirates Jordan Macao-China Singapore Shanghai-China Index of exposure to formal mathematics 27 Focus on conceptual understanding Fig I.3.1b

27 Examples of interdisciplinary knowledge Financial literacy Cultural literacy/ intercultural literacy Global knowledge Entrepreneurship, Business, Economics ICT literacy Media literacy Ecology, environmental literacy STEM Programming Engineering Robotics Practical/ vocational-related knowledge

28 Performance in financial literacy 30 Exposure and financial literacy 625 Shanghai-China Poland OECD average-13 Australia New Zealand Latvia United States Russian Federation Flemish Community (Belgium) Czech Republic Slovak Republic Colombia % of students in schools where the principal reports that financial literacy is available for at least 2 years

29 Some examples of themes in which knowledge can be developed Systems thinking Global literacy Design thinking Digital literacy Information literacy Inspired by: Center for curriculum redesign (CCR)

30 Selecting and prioritising what students should learn Emotional (e.g. beauty) Cognitive (e.g. creativity, critical thinking) Disciplinary/practical use (e.g. relevance to application in work and life) Inspired by: Center for curriculum redesign (CCR)

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32 Cognitive competencies

33 Examples of cognitive competencies Problem Solving Creativity Critical Thinking Analytical skills Innovation Synthesising Systems thinking Researching Foresight thinking Higher order thinking skills Data gathering Sources: Green - OECD (2015), Lippman, L. et all. (2015), Literature review of 34 empirical studies, Kauz et al.(2014),

34 36 Digital problem solving skills of adults Young adults (16-24 year-olds) All adults (16-65 year-olds) Sweden Finland Netherlands Norway Denmark Australia Canada Germany England/N. Ireland (UK) Japan Flanders (Belgium) Average Czech Republic Austria United States Korea Estonia Slovak Republic Ireland Poland Basic digital problem-solving skills Advanced digital problem-solving skills % PIAAC/OECD

35 37 Average is over % 25 Evolution of employment in occupational groups defined by problemsolving skills High level problem-solving skills Low problem-solving skills Medium-low problemsolving skills -20

36 Knowledge Social competencies

37 Examples of social Competencies Collaboration Cross cultural skills Communication Team work Conflict resolution skills Leadership

38 Collaborative Problem Solving in PISA 2015 Collaborative problem solving competency is the capacity of an individual to effectively engage in a process whereby two or more agents attempt to solve a problem by sharing the understanding and effort required to come to a solution and pooling their knowledge, skills and efforts to reach that solution.

39 Global Competence in PISA 2018 Global Competence is the capability and disposition to act and interact appropriately and effectively, both individually and collaboratively, when participating in an interconnected, interdependent and diverse world.

40 Physical competencies and well-being 43

41 Physical Competencies and Well-being Subjective health Health habits (good nutrition; making good choices about sleep and exercise) Kinesthetic ability (the ability to coordinate movement) dexterity, motor skills Risk-avoidance behaviours (avoiding substance abuse, smoking, drinking, unsafe sexual practices, and violence) Health outcomes (e.g. obesity, bodymass index BMI) Ability to use physical tools, operations, functions including manual skills (ICT, new machines)

42 11 8 Overweight and obesity among children Measured overweight (including obesity) among children, 2013 (or latest year) % of children at various ages 50 Boys Girls Source: World Obesity Federation (2015), KIGGS ( ) for Germany and KNHANES (2013) for Korea.

43 Knowledge Social competence Character qualities

44 47 Some examples of character qualities Empathy Resilience Mindfulness Inclusion Curiosity Ethics Courage Leadership

45 OECD (2015) College Completion (USA) Source: NLS Y Cognitive skills deciles Social & emotional skills deciles

46 OECD (2015) Bullying at 15 (Korea) Source: KYP S

47 OECD (2015) Happy at 20 (New Zealand) Source: CC

48 51 Country of origin and country of destination Immigrant students PISA performance in mathematics, by country of origin and destination First-generation immigrants' score, after accounting for socio-economic status Netherlands United Arab Emirates Students from Arabic-speaking countries in: Denmark Finland Qatar Students from Arabic-speaking Students from countries China in: in: Hong Kong-China Finland New Netherlands Zealand United Arab Macao-China Emirates Percentage of students with an immigrant background who reported that they feel like they belong at school Australia Qatar Denmark PISA score points in mathematics %

49 52 Meta-competencies reflecting on learning goals, strategies and results Meta-competencies reflecting on learning goals, strategies and results

50 Metacognitive knowledge Metacognitive regulation Metacognitive reflection/ action Self-regulation/ self-control Reflection/ self-reflection (subjectspecific) Self-efficacy (subjectspecific) Global awareness Growth mindset/ locus of control Planning Relationship management (GC) Task-initiation Learning strategies Selfawareness Stress resistance Goalorientation Monitoring Conditional knowledge Adaptation Selfresponsibility Evaluating Organising Time management Source: Green - Emily R. Lai (2011); Simone R. D, & L. Salganik (2015)

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52 Countries where students have stronger beliefs Fig III in their abilities perform better in mathematics Mean mathematics performance OECD average Mean index of mathematics self-efficacy 650 Shanghai-China Singapore Hong Kong-China Korea Chinese Taipei Japan Macao-China Switzerland Netherlands Estonia Finland Canada Liechtenstein Belgium Poland Germany Viet Nam Denmark Slovenia New Zealand Latvia Italy Portugal Austria Australia Russian Fed. Hungary Croatia Luxembourg Greece Slovak Republic Spain Turkey Israel Sweden Norway Serbia Lithuania Czech Republic U.A.E. United Kingdom Thailand Malaysia Romania Iceland Chile Bulgaria Kazakhstan Ireland United States Montenegro France Costa Rica Brazil Uruguay Mexico Albania Argentina Tunisia Colombia Qatar Jordan Indonesia Peru R² =

53 56 Perceived self-responsibility for failure in mathematics Fig III.3.6 Percentage of students who reported "agree" or "strongly agree" with the following statements: France Shanghai-China OECD average Sometimes I am just unlucky The teacher did not get students interested in the material Sometimes the course material is too hard This week I made bad guesses on the quiz My teacher did not explain the concepts well this week I m not very good at solving mathematics problems %

54 Colombia Costa Rica Peru Israel Luxembourg Chile Tunisia Slovak Republic Liechtenstein Italy Korea Spain Argentina Brazil Portugal Greece Japan Austria Uruguay Mexico Hong Kong-China Bulgaria Turkey Indonesia Hungary Viet Nam United States Romania U.A.E. Chinese Taipei Canada Ireland Belgium Kazakhstan Czech Republic OECD average Croatia France Shanghai-China Montenegro Poland Serbia Malaysia Estonia Qatar Macao-China Netherlands New Zealand Norway Lithuania Slovenia Denmark Jordan Switzerland Australia Germany Latvia Russian Fed. Sweden Singapore United Kingdom Thailand Finland Iceland Score-point difference (boys-girls) Greater self-efficacy among girls could shrink the gender gap in mathematics Fig III performance, particularly among the highest-performing students Gender gap among the highest-achieving students (90th percentile) 40 Gender gap adjusted for differences in mathematics self-efficacy between boys and girls Gender gap 30 Boys do better Girls do better -20

55 58 Making change happen

56 Mean mathematics performance, by school location, after accounting for socio-economic status 59 What do teachers say about innovation? Fig II.3.3 Percentage of lower secondary teachers Average Innovative practices will be considered in appraisal with high or moderate importance If I am more innovative in my teaching, I will be rewarded %

57 Score points Students who use computers at school only moderately score the highest in reading Relationship between students skills in reading and computer use at school (average across OECD countries) Highest score Digital reading Source: Figure OECD average Index of ICT use at school

58 61 Mobilise innovation Innovation inspired by science (15/1) Innovation inspired by practitioners Innovation inspired by users Entrepreneurial development of new products and services

59 62 Making change happen To gain the benefits of collaborative planning, work, and Regrouping shared professional development educators strategies To open up pedagogical options To give extra attention to groups of learners To give learners a sense of belonging & engagement Inquiry, authentic learning, collaboration, Widening To mix students of different Four ages Regrouping pedagogic and formative assessment To mix different abilities learners repertoires A prominent dimensions and place strengths for student voice & agency To widen pedagogical options, including peer teaching To allow for deeper learning To create flexibility for more individual choices To accelerate learning To use out-of-school learning in effective & innovative ways Rescheduling learning

60 Making change happen Make costs and benefits of educational innovation as symmetric as possible Everyone supports innovation (except for their own children) The benefits for winners are often insufficient to mobilise support, the costs for losers are concentrated That s the power of interest groups Need for consistent, co-ordinated efforts to persuade those affected of the need for change and, in particular, to communicate the costs of inaction

61 Making change happen Given the uncertainties that accompany change, education stakeholders will always value the status quo. Successful innovations are good at communicating the need for change and building support for change tend to invest in capacity development and changemanagement skills develop evidence and feed this back to institutions along with tools with which they can use the information Are backed by sustainable financing Teachers need to be active agents, not just in the implementation of innovations, but also in their design

62 OECD Education 2030 What competencies are needed by students in 2030? Internationally validated OECD 21 st century curriculum framework Curriculum guideline and reform Assessment framework Making change happen in education systems Policy dialogue Etc etc

63 Average school systems Some students learn at high levels High performers in PISA All students learn at high levels Uniformity Embracing diversity Curriculum-centred Learner-centred Learning a place Learning an activity Prescription Informed profession

64 THANK YOU Find out more about our work at All publications The complete micro-level database Twitter: SchleicherEDU and remember: Without data, you are just another person with an opinion 67