On June 12, 1941, President Franklin Roosevelt

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1 Voting fo Jutice: Change an Continuity in Confimation Voting Chale M. Cameon Jonathan P. Katellec Jee-Kwang Pak Pinceton Univeity Pinceton Univeity Ameican Univeity in Caio The contentioune of enate voting on upeme Cout nomination inceae amatically fom 1937 to We ientify fou potential ouce of the inceae: (1) change in the enate; (2) change in the nominee; (3) change in the political envionment; an, (4) change in enato evaluative citeia. Uing new ata an impove tatitical technique, we etimate a well-pefoming moel of enato iniviual voting choice on upeme Cout nominee. imulation allow an evaluation of the contibution of the fou clae of facto to inceae contentioune. The pincipal ouce of inceae contentioune wa the combination of inceaingly exteme nominee an an inceaingly polaize enate. Alo ignificant wa the inceae mobilization of inteet goup. In um, inceae contentioune eem lagely to eflect the ieological polaization of Ameican political elite. On June 12, 1941, Peient Fanklin ooevelt ubmitte thee upeme Cout nomination to the U.. enate, appointing Jutice Halan tone to the poition of Chief Jutice an Jame Byne an obet Jackon to aociate jutice. 1 Within a month, all thee wee confime by voice vote in the enate. Thu, ooevelt wa able to ecue a new Chief Jutice an eplace 22% of the Cout membehip eamlely. Toay, even the mot outine upeme Cout nomination involve month of vetting by the enate, ignificant meia coveage, inteet goup activity on both ie, an uually a ignificant numbe of nay vote by enato. Fo intance, epite being a elatively uncontoveial nominee, Elena Kagan confimationin2010waoppoeby37enato. Thee example booken a geneal ten in upeme Cout confimation politic ove the pat thee-quate of a centuy. Figue 1A epict the pecentage of nay vote cat on evey nominee fom 1937 to The line, which i a locally weighte egeion line, how a clea inceaing tenency fo enato to vote againt upeme Cout nominee. Thu, confimation politic ae clealy becoming moe contentiou. Why ha enate voting on upeme Cout nominee become o much moe contentiou? oe it eflect change in the enate? O oe it eflect change in the nominee? I inceae contentioune iven by change in the evaluative citeia employe by enato? O oe it mio the gowth of ieological inteet goup an othe change in ociety? In thi aticle, we ientify fou type of change potentially eponible fo the amatic ie in contentioune uouning enate voting on upeme Cout nominee: Change in the enate incluing the gowing ieological polaization of the enate. Change in the nominee incluing the inceae ieological extemim of the nominee an change in thei peceive quality. Change in the political envionment incluing the mobilization of inteet goup active in confimation 1 An online appenix containing upplemental infomation fo thi aticle i available at eplication coe an ata an uppoting mateial neee to epouce the numeical eult can be foun at 2 Thoughout the aticle we evaluate the 42 nominee in thi time peio who eceive a final confimation vote by the enate, incluing voice vote. Thee nomination Home Thonbey (1968), ougla Ginbug (1987), an Haiet Mie wee withawn befoe they eceive a vote by the enate. We exclue Abe Fota nomination to become Chief Jutice in Fota wa blocke by a clotue vote an neve eceive a final vote. The Jounal of Politic, Vol. 75, No. 2, Apil 2013, Pp oi: / Ó outhen Political cience Aociation, 2013 IN

2 284 chale m. cameon, jonathan p. katellec, an jee-kwang pak FIGUE 1 Change ove Time in upeme Cout Nomination Politic Note: All line, except in panel F, ae locally weighte egeion line (lowe), with a pan of 1. ee text fo etail.

3 change an continuity in upeme cout confimation voting 285 politic an the oppotunity to make high-impact move-the-meian nomination. Change in enato evaluative citeia incluing the changing ignificance of ace an vaiation in the impotance of ieology a a citeion. ome of thee potential ouce have been icue in peviou wok. Fo example, eveal tuie emphaizetheoleofnomineeieologyanqualificationin enato evaluation of potential jutice (epecially Cameon, Cove, an egal (1990) [hencefoth CC]; Eptein et al. (2006); Katellec, Lax, an Phillip (2010); anegal,cameon,ancove(1992)).egal,cameon, an Cove (1992) an Caleia an Wight (1998) alo examine the impact of inteet goup paticipation on confimation voting. eveal tuie note the changing ignificance of ace in nomination politic (epecially Oveby et al. 1992, 1994). LeMieux an tewat (1990) emphaize the impotance of move-the-meian nominee, a oe Kehbiel (2007). Nonethele, many of the poible facto have not been evaluate ytematically befoe, incluing the acial libealim of nominee an the heightene ieological polaization of the enate. No tuy ha evaluate all thee facto imultaneouly within a unifie famewok. In thi aticle, we fit eview ata on each of the facto mentione above, much of it newly collecte. Among the new ata ae meaue of the nominee acial libealim (calculate in the econ W-NOMINATE imenion), the numbe of inteet goup involve in all nomination ince 1937, an each nominee move-the-meian impact on the upeme Cout calculate in the fit (economic libealim) W-NOMINATE imenion. We then etimate a multilevel moel of iniviual voting on nominee that incopoate all the ientifie facto. We evaluate the pefomance of the moel an how that it account well fo obeve vote magin in almot all the nomination ove the lat 70 yea. Next, we ue imulation to evaluate the contibution of each facto to the inceae oveall contentioune of confimation voting. The imulation inicate that the pincipal ouce of thi inceae wee the tenency of peient to nominate moe exteme iniviual couple with the gowing ieological polaization of the enate. Alo impotant ha been gowing inteet goup involvement, paticulaly uing high-impact, move-the-meian nomination. Finally, we eveal two impotant ten in the ole of ieology in enato evaluation of nominee. Fit, in the wake of the upeme Cout 1954 eciion in Bown v. Boa of Eucation, the econ W-NOMINATE imenion wa highly influential in the voting calculation of enato, epecially outhen emocat, a the nominee acial libealim became an impotant conieation in confimation politic. But the fit o main imenion etune to a ominant poition afte the In fact, we fin that ieological itance on the main imenion ha playe an unuually impotant ole in explaining the high level of vote againt the thee mot ecent nominee to the Cout. Ou eult thu ugget that the inceae contentioune in upeme Cout confimation politic lagely eflect the ieological polaization of Ameican political elite, an contentioune i only likely to inceae futhe a Ameican politic become moe polaize. ouce of Inceae Contentioune The context of upeme Cout confimation voting ha change amatically ove the lat 70 yea. We highlight even potentially impotant change, goupe within fou boa categoie: change in the enate, change in nominee, change in the political envionment, an change in enato evaluative citeia. Change in the enate Ieological Polaization of enato. One of the mot amatic evelopment in contempoay Ameican politic i the ieological polaization of political elite, paticulaly membe of the Houe an enate (McCaty, Poole, an oenthal 2006). Becaue ieology i cental to upeme Cout nomination politic, thi evelopment i potentially of immene conequence becaue it will inceae ieological itance between enatoannomineefomtheoppoitepaty.figue1b epictpolaizationinenatefomthe1930on(the meaue employe i the ieological itance between the mean emocatic an mean epublican enato, meaue in the fit imenion of the W-NOMINATE pace). Polaization in the enate wa low fom the late 1930 to the mi It then jumpe upwa omewhat but emaine table until the late ince then, howeve, it ha kyockete. Cuent level of ieological polaization in the enate eemble thoe afte the Civil Wa. Incience of oll-call Vote. etuning to Figue 1A, the open cicle epict voice vote, while the oli cicle epict oll-call vote. Until the mi- 1960, mot vote on upeme Cout nominee wee voice vote athe than oll call. Howeve, thi patten change amatically theeafte. Moe peciely,

4 286 chale m. cameon, jonathan p. katellec, an jee-kwang pak fom 1937 to 1965, only 29% of the 21 non-withawn nomination teminate with a oll-call vote. ince 1965 (fom the nomination of Thugoo Mahall in 1967 fowa), all 21 non-withawn nominee ene with a oll-call vote. Oveall, 64% of the 42 non-withawn nomination ince 1937 eulte in oll-call vote. In thi epect, oll-call voting on upeme Cout nominee eemble enate oll-call voting moe geneally. A Figue 1C how, oll-call vote wee elative aitie in the enate fom 1937 to 1958, aveaging le than 260 pe enate. Beginning with the 86th Conge ( ), howeve, the numbe of oll-call vote exploe to about 750 pe enate. Thu, in the ealie peio, oll call pobably involve matte of paticula contovey o viibility; toay, even elatively outine matte eceive oll-call vote. Potentially thi change in oll-call voting coul puiouly make the inceae in contentioune look lage than it ha in fact been. Howeve, a we icu below, thi oe not appea to be the cae. Change in the Nominee Ieological Extemity of Nominee. The ieological oientation of nominee appea to be a citical element in enato voting eciion on nominee, aguably the citical element. Theefoe, it i impotant to have a meaue of nominee ieology in the ame metic a that ue to meaue enato ieologie (Eptein et al. 2006). Hee we employ Cameon an Pak NOMINATE-cale Peception (NP) coe, which poject contempoay peception of the nominee, eive fom content analyi of newpape eitoial, into the fit W-NOMINATE imenion (ee Cameon an Pak 2009 fo etail). Figue 2A inicate the NP coe fo each non-withawn nominee in the peio. The left-han panel iplay the coe fo nominee of emocatic peient; the ight-han panel thoe of nominee of epublican peient. uing the 70-yea peio we tuy, emocatic peient tene to nominate iniviual peceive a quite libeal, with a few ealy exception. ince the 1940, emocatic peient have eliably nominate iniviual peceive a libeal. Peient Eienhowe nominate iniviual peceive a moeate, but late epublican peient inceaingly nominate iniviual peceive a conevative. At peent, the nominee of emocatic an epublican peient typically iplay ieologie away fom the cente of the fit-imenion W-NOMINATE cale. An implication i that nominee ae apt to be quite itant ieologically fom mot enato of the oppoite paty epecially in ecent ecae, given the concomitant ie in polaization in the enate an the ubequent bimoal itibution of pefeence aco the two patie. Nominee Quality. Peviou eeach inicate that the peceive quality of nomination tongly affect the voting choice of enato (Cameon, Cove, an egal 1990; Eptein et al. 2006; egal, Cameon, an Cove 1992). The mot commonly employe meaue of peceive quality i eive fom content analyi of newpape eitoial (CC), which we employ. We augment the tana meaue of peceive qualification with a econ meaue, accuation of canal. Thi meaue ue the coing cheme fom Cameon, egal, an Key (2010), who take contempoay account in The New Yok Time an Lo Angele Time an coe them a inicating a canal (whethe uppote o not) of unethical o juicially impope behavio. Example inclue a nominee who allegely tie cae in which he ha a financial inteet, mae acit tatement, ceate o belonge to a acially excluionay club o avowely acit oganization like the KKK, exually haae a uboinate, o engage in exteme patian action een a juicially impope, uch a haaing minoity vote at the poll. Figue 1 epict nominee peceive lack of quality ove time an whethe they ha a canal. The cloe cicle epict nominee with canal, the open cicle nominee without canal. Many obeve believe the confimation poce ha become hahe ove time an hence moe likely to amage the peceive quality of nominee. Howeve, a Figue 1 eveal, aveage level of peceive lack of nominee quality wee almot the ame in the fit ( ) an econ ( ) halve of the peio, no i the vaiance of the meaue inceae aco the two time peio. On the othe han, in the ealie peio only 19% of nominee wee accue of canalou behavio; in the late peio, 43% of nominee wee, a tatitically ignificant iffeence. Abent thee accuation, peceive nominee quality might well have inceae ove time. Finally, Figue 1 eveal that while lack of quality an canal ae coelate (at.59), they ae not the ame thing Jutice Minton an White, fo example, wee peceive to be elatively low-quality nominee while emaining fee of canal, while Jutice Jackon, Waen, an otomayo wee peceive to be of high quality while unegoing canal. Change in the Political Envionment Inteet Goup Mobilization. Inteet goup have been pominently involve in contoveial nomination ince at leat the 1920, an pehap ealie.

5 change an continuity in upeme cout confimation voting 287 FIGUE 2 Nominee Ieology ove Time: Change an imenionality A) Changing ieology of nominee ove time Conevative.6.4 Nominee of emocatic peient NP coe (1t imenion) Libeal Nominee of epublican peient B) Nominee peceive ieology coe in two imenion 2n imenion NP coe Moe libeal Moe conevative Haynwoth = ucceful oll call = unucceful oll call Mahall Fota otomayo Black Golbeg Vinon Halan tewat O Conno Buge Cawell Thoma Bok Moe libeal Moe conevative 1t imenion NP coe Note: (A) The fit-imenion NP coe of evey non-withawn nominee fom 1937 to The line ae lowe line, with a pan of 1. (B): Nominee Peceive Ieology coe in Two imenion. Negative numbe inicate economic libeal (fit imenion) o acial libeal (econ imenion). Howeve, many commentato have note an appaent inceae in the fequency an intenity of goup involvement in politic, incluing nomination politic, uing the lat ecae (Caleia an Wight 1998; chlozman 2010). Thi inceae eem likely to have contibute to iing contentioune in upeme Cout confimation politic, a it ha in lowe cout nomination (chee, Batel, an teigewalt 2008). Meauing the involvement of inteet goup in upeme Cout nomination ove eight ecae i not taightfowa. ome chola have employe the numbe of goup tetifying in the heaing a a meaue (egal, Cameon, an Cove 1992). Howeve, tetifying equie coopeation fom the Juiciay Committee, o uch count pobably eflect a combination of goup mobilization an Committee hotility to the nominee. A an altenative, we employ a meaue eive fom content analyi of all toie in the Lo Angele Time coveing upeme Cout nomination. The meaue i the numbe of itinct goup mentione in the newpape coveage uing each nomination. A hown in Figue 1E, pe coveage mentione elatively few inteet goup pio to the Haynwoth nomination in 1969, with the aveage numbe of goup mentione in thi peio being only two. ubequently, many moe goup wee eeme woth mentioning the aveage numbe of goup mentione inceae evenfol, to 15. The Bok, Thoma, obet, an Alito nomination tan out a occaion on which many goup mobilize; alo notable wee the Haynwoth an Cawell nomination. Even in ecent yea, inteet goup mobilization i not invaiant. Fo example, the nomination of tephen Beye, uth Bae Ginbug,

6 288 chale m. cameon, jonathan p. katellec, an jee-kwang pak an Anthony Kenney aw little inteet goup involvement. Potentially Tanfomative Nominee. ome nominee alte the poition of the meian jutice on the upeme Cout; othe o not. ome analyt have ague that move-the-meian nominee ought to have a ipopotionate impact on the Cout juipuence (Kehbiel 2007; LeMieux an tewat 1990; Moaki an hipan 1999). Unfotunately, empiical invetigation of thi iea emain thin an the fining omewhat contaictoy (cf. Bai 2007, an Cameon, Pak, an Beim 2009). Howeve, if enato peceive thi to be tue, move-the-meian nominee may pak unuual contention. A move-the-meian nomination can occu two way: (1) a nominee on one ie of the Cout meian jutice eplace a itting jutice on the othe ie of the meian, fo example, a conevative eplace a libeal; (2) a nominee eplace the meian jutice himelf. Intenal pomotion to Chief Jutice cannot move the meian, though the eplacement of an exiting Chief may. Fo the pupoe of nomination politic, it i moe impotant whethe a nominee wa peceive to be a move-the-meian nominee than whethe he actually pove to be one. Fo example, avi oute peceive to be a moeate conevative eplace libeal William Bennan. oute tune out to be a moeate athe than a conevative an thu wa a maintain-the-meian nominee. Nonethele, he houl have been peceive a a move-the-meian nominee at the time of hi nomination. Becaue the NP coe an the wiely ue Juicial Common pace juicial voting coe (Eptein et al. 2007) ae eaily cale into the fit W-NOMINATE imenion, it i elatively taightfowa to ientify nominee that qualify a ex ante move-the-meian nominee. The online Appenix A contain aitional infomation on calculating move-the-meian nomination. Figue 1F peent ata on peception of nominee move-the-meian impact ove time. Each point inicate the change in the location of the meian jutice that woul have eulte fom the confimation of each nominee, auming he ubequently vote in acco with he NP coe. Negative numbe inicate a libeal hift in the meian; poitive numbe a conevative hift. The gay hoizontal line ae efeence line, awn at tana eviation in the vaiable. The gaph how that while mot nominee woul not have move the meian, a few woul likely have been peceive to make a amatic iffeence. Golbeg,White,Vinon,Halan,anBlackwee potentially libeal tanfomative nominee. (In the event, Vinon, Halan, an White i not have the anticipate libeal impact becaue thei voting behavio wa moe conevative than thei NP coe woul have uggete.) Alito, Buge, Kenney, Bok, oute, ehnquit, teven, Thoma, Blackmun, Cawell, an Haynwoth wee potentially conevative tanfomative nominee. (oute an teven i not have the anticipate conevative impact becaue thei actual voting behavio wa moe libeal than thei NP coe woul have uggete.) Change in enato Evaluation Citeia The Changing ignificance of ace. Though mot of the peio we tuy, the coe iue that have galvanize oppoition to upeme Cout nominee have lagely been economic o ocial iue. The ealiet nominee we analyze, fo example, came to the bench in the wake of the Cout battle ove Peient ooevelt New eal plan. An toay, fo example, no nominee can ecape being ake he view on abotion. uch iue ae geneally thought to be picke up by the fit-imenion W-NOMINATE coe, which thu captue the main imenion in Ameican politic uingthepeiowetuy(pooleanoenthal1997). Accoingly, mot tuie of oll-call voting on upeme Cout nominee have focue on the ieological itance between nominee an enato in thi fit imenion. Howeve, the mile of the twentieth centuy witnee the ie of ace a a key iue in Ameican politic. While acial conieation ble into economic iue in geneal a ealy a the 1940 (Poole an oenthal 1997, 111), quetion uouning ace i not take pominence in the upeme Cout eciion making until it lanmak 1954 eciion of Bown v. Boa of Eucation, which initiate the poce of eegegating chool. While Bown wa uppote by a majoity of Ameican, it wa ovewhelmingly oppoe by outhen white an pake fuiou outage in many pat of the outh (Muakami 2008). Thu, the jutice eciion in Bown fimly thut the juiciay into the ebate ove civil ight (Peltaon 1961), which in tun meant that futue nominee woul likely be juge on thi imenion a well. Inee, the next yea, outhen emocat oppoe the nomination of John M. Halan, contening that he wa ulta-libeal, hotile to the outh [an] eicate to efoming the Contitution by juicial fiat (Abaham 2008, 206). It i well-etablihe that membe of Conge pay cloe attention to the view of thei contituent (Fenno 1978; Mayhew 1974). An we know that enato ytematically follow thei contituent view when they vote to appove o eject nominee

7 change an continuity in upeme cout confimation voting We cannot evaluate the ole of public opinion in nomination ove ou 70-yea tuy pan ince poll wee only aely conucte fo nominee befoe the We ceate figue bae on oll-call ata available at The cutting line ae ceate by logitically egeing the pobability of a yea vote on each imenion, then etimating the bet epaating line fom the eult of each logit. (Katellec, Lax, an Phillip 2010). 3 Accoingly, it follow that enato fom the outh (which, in the mile of the centuy, wee almot all outhen emocat) woul evaluate nominee on thei peceive acial ieologie (i.e., on the econ W-NOMINATE imenion), eithe in aition to o intea of thei economic o ocial libealim. We know fom Oveby et al. (1994), fo example, that outhen emocatic enato with lage Afican- Ameican contituencie wee le likely to uppot the nomination of Thugoo Mahall, the Cout fit black jutice, a eult attibute to enato concen about the view of thei white contituent. We begin with an exploatoy analyi in Figue 3 of the poibility that acial conieation ytematically influence enato evaluative citeia fo uppoting nomination conitional on the changing natue of Ameican politic. Fo the 22 nominee in ou tuy who eceive a oll-call vote an at leat two nay vote, the gaph iplay enato etimate ieal point in the two-imenional W-NOMINATE pace Nothen emocat ae inicate by, outhen emocat by, an epublican by, with lowe-cae lette enoting nay vote. The x-axi i the pimay, economic/paty-bae imenion; the y-axi i the econay, ace/geogaphic-elate imenion. Alo hown i the etimate cutting line that bet epaate yea an nay fo the oll-call vote on each nominee. 4 In the 1930 an 1940, befoe the Cout eciion in Bown, we can ee that the cutting line ae nealy vetical, with yea an nay epaate pimaily along the fit, economic, o libeal-conevative imenion. Thing change when we examine the confimation of Jutice Halan, tewat, an Mahall in the 1950 an 1960: Halan an tewat nomination came in the wake of Bown, while the 1960 witnee the high-wate mak of the Civil ight Ea. An, a note above, acial politic unupiingly playe a ole in Mahall nomination. Compae to the fit et of nominee,thecuttinglinefothehalan,tewat,an Mahall nomination ae much moe hoizontal, with yea an nay epaate pimaily o ubtantially along the econ, ace-elate imenion. In thee nomination, outhen emocat wee much moe likely to oppoe the nominee than Nothen emocat an epublican; note the clute of at the top of each plot, which i the conevative wing of the econ imenion. We ee ome influence of the econ imenion in the Haynwoth an Cawell nomination in Afte that, the cutting line fo all nominee etune to the vetical poition. Thi acco with the geneal ten in Ameican politic. A Poole an oenthal note, following the paage of the Civil ight Act of 1964 an the Voting ight Act of 1965, civil ight coul inceaingly be accounte fo by the fit imenion (1997, 111), an thee lanmak bill tanfome the contituency of the emocatic Paty in the outh (ae 1994). By about 1970, the evaluative citeia ue by outhen emocat moe cloely eemble that ue by Nothen emocat (Oveby et al. 1992, 1994). Thu, we fin peliminay evience of the impotance of acial conieation in the econ peio, an we evaluate the effect of the econ imenion ytematically below. Given thi appaent impotance, it i impotant to place upeme Cout nominee on the econ, acial imenion. To o o, we employ an infeential poceue bae on the econ imenion coe of peient an enato, imila to that ue by Gile, Hettinge, an Peppe (2001), to eive fitimenion W-NOMINATE coe fo juge on the U.. Cout of Appeal. We icu thi poceue in the online Appenix B. To povie a ene of what the nominee look like aco each imenion, Figue 2B epict a catteplot of the nominee peception coe in both imenion. oli cicle inicate ucceful oll-call vote, while the tiangle epict unucceful vote. Negative numbe inicate economic libeal (fit imenion) o acial libeal (econ imenion). The uppe-ight quaant contain Haynwoth an Cawell, two economic conevative who wee alo acial conevative/moeate. The uppe-left quaatic contain two New eal nominee who wee peceive a economic libeal but acial conevative (Black an Vinon). The lowe-left quaant contain 20 economic libeal who wee acially moeate o libeal (e.g., Golbeg, Fota, an otomayo). Thi quaant alo contain nomination offee in the wake of Bown in which outhen emocat vote quite iffeently fom Nothen emocat (e.g., Halan an Mahall). The lowe-ight quaant contain nominee who wee peceive a economically conevative but acially libeal (e.g., Buge, O Conno, Thoma). Thi categoy inclue mot ecent nominee of epublican peient.

8 Moeling enato Evaluation of Nominee In thi ection, we moel enato iniviual voting choice on nominee, incopoating all the facto icue in the peviou ection. We etimate the moel on ata fom 1937 to 2010 an how that the moel peiction cloely tack the hitoic eco. To moel the elationhip between voting on nominee an the vaiable icue above, we buil on the founation of the theoetical moel evelope by CC. In it baic fom, the moel aume enato i vote fo nominee j if an only if i utility fo j i geate than a anom tem, that i, u ij. e ij. Utility i aume to eceae mainly in the ieological itance between the enato an nominee, ij 5 k i 2 n j k,whee i epeent the ieological ieal point of the enato an n j that of the nominee in the ame pace. Utility i alo affecte by the lack of qualification of the nominee, canal, an inteet goup paticipation the peence o inceae of thee i peicte to lea to a eceae in the pobability of a vote to confim a nominee. Empiically etimating thi moel equie eveal choice. Fit, thee i the quetion of how to eal FIGUE 3 Cutting Line in NOMINATE pace Black 1937 ougla 1939 Clak 1949 Minton 1949 Halan 1955 tewat 1959 Mahall 1967 Buge 1969 Haynwoth 1969 Cawell 1970 ehnq. (AJ) 1971 ehnq. (CJ) 1986 Bok 1987 oute 1990 Thoma 1991 Ginbug 1993 Beye 1994 obet 2005 Alito 2006 otomayo 2009 Kagan t imenion 1t imenion 1t imenion 2n imenion 2n imenion 2n imenion 2n imenion 2n imenion 2n imenion 1t imenion Note: Each plot iplay enato etimate ieal point in the two imenional W-NOMINATE pace. The x-axi i the pimay, economic imenion; the y-axi i the econay, geogaphic/ace elate imenion. hown i the etimate cutting line fo the oll-call vote; i.e., the line that bet epaate yea an nay.,, an enote Nothen emocatic, outhen emocatic, an epublican enato, epectively; lowe cae lette enote nay vote. 290 chale m. cameon, jonathan p. katellec, an jee-kwang pak

9 change an continuity in upeme cout confimation voting 291 with the 15 nominee who eceive voice vote (all of thee occue befoe 1966). The tana pactice in the liteatue ha been to count thee vote a unanimou yea. Howeve, the voice vote pouce cenoe obevation, whee the cenoing mechanim i the enogenou choice of the enate to hol a oll-call vote. In the online Appenix C, we conuct a Heckman analyi of thi cenoing an conclue that it impact i vey mall. Accoingly, we follow the tana pactice of teating voice vote a unanimou yea. A a obutne check, we eplicate all the moel that appea hee with voice vote nominee exclue. eult wee unchange. The econ choice involve the tuctue of the ata. oll-call ata on upeme Cout nomination (o any vote that take place in a epeate context) i inheently multilevel. The enato contitute the iniviual level of the ata: i.e., that i whee the action of inteet (the vote on each nominee) take place. Each nominee contitute the goup level of the ata, with vote clutee within each nominee. Ou ata contain a combination of iniviual-level peicto an goup-level peicto. At the iniviual level, we meaue the itance between the nominee an the enato in both ieological imenion; pecifically, we employ the quaatic itance between the nominee NP coe an the enato W-NOMINATE coe in each imenion (it1 an it2, epectively). Move-the-meian i alo an iniviual-level vaiable, becaue the poibility of tanfomative nominee will likely inuce enato who woul be peipoe to uppot the nominee to uppot he even moe, an vice vea. pecifically, move-the-meian i the ex ante move-the-meian impact if the enato i a libeal (ha a negative fit imenion W-NOMINATE coe) an 21 time the ex ante impact if the enato i a conevative (ha a poitive W-NOMINATE coe). If libeal enato oppoe conevative-move an uppot libeal-move, an conevative enato uppot conevative-move an oppoe libeal one, the coefficient on thi vaiable houl be negative. Finally, at the gouplevel,wehavethevaiablelack of quality, canal, an inteet goup each i meaue a ecibe above. The multilevel natue of the ata ha two implication. Fit, obevation within each nominee ae not inepenent. econ, while the effect of the goup-level vaiable cannot, by efinition, vay within nominee, the effect of the iniviual-level vaiable can; that i, ieological itance might be a bette peicto of voting fo ome nominee than othe. ecent tuie of oll-call voting have accounte fo the fit concen by eithe ajuting tana eo (Eptein et al. 2006) o allowing the intecept fo each nominee to vay anomly (i.e., anom intecept ) (Katellec, Lax, an Phillip 2010; hipan 2008), but no tuy ha exploe the poibility that the effect of ieology might vay aco nominee. We o o by employing a vaying-intecept, vaying-lope moel of confimation voting that allow the effect of the itance vaiable to iffe within each nominee (i.e., anom effect ). Impotantly, thi allow u to check whethe enato evaluative citeia ha change ove time, without making any abitay aumption about beakpoint in time peio (fo example, i the ea in which acial politic play a ole in nomination en in 1968 o 1970?). Alo, it allow: (1) fo the incluion of both goup-level peicto an anom effect fo nominee, omething that i not poible with tana fixe effect moel; an (2) fo infomation aco nomination to be patially poole. Fomally, let i enote iniviual vote an n the numbe of vote in the ata, J enote the numbe of nominee, M the matix of goup-level peicto, an G the vecto of coefficient on the goup-level peicto. 5 While, a note above, move-the-meian i technically an iniviual-level peicto, we teat it a a goup-level peicto becaue it take on a contant value of 0 fo mot nominee. Table 1 peent the eult of eveal moel. Moel 1 i a egula logit: Pðy i ¼ 1Þ ¼logit 1 ða þ b 1 3 it1 þ b 2 3 it2 þ MGÞ: ð1þ Thi moel aume a ingle intecept fo each nominee an a fixe (o nonvaying) effect fo both itance aco all nominee (we employ obut tana eo clutee on the nominee). Moel 2 i a multilevel moel that allow the intecept fo each nominee to vay: 6 a j ; Nðg 0 þ M j G; Pðy i ¼ 1Þ ¼logit 1 ða j ½iŠþb 1 3 it1 þ b 2 3 it2þ; fo i ¼ 1; :::; n 2 a Þ; fo j ¼ 1; :::; J: ð2þ Moel 3 i a multilevel moel that allow the intecept an the itance effect to vay by nominee: 5 Ou notation come iectly fom Gelman an Hill (2007, ). 6 We etimate the multilevel moel uing the GLME comman in (Bate, 2005).

10 292 chale m. cameon, jonathan p. katellec, an jee-kwang pak Pðy i ¼ 1Þ ¼ logit 1 ða j ½Šþb i 1ji ½Š 3 it1 þ b 2ji ½Š 3 it2þ; fo i ¼ 1; :::; n a j g a 0 þ M 1 0 jg 2 11 a b C BB 1j A; N g b 1 C 0 A; 1 a b1 b 1 AA; fo j ¼ 1; :::; J: ð3þ b 2j 2 a b2 3 b1 b2 2 b 2 g b 2 0 We begin ou evaluation with the goup-level peicto. Conitent with pio wok, we ee that inceaing a nominee lack of quality lea to a ignificant eceae in the pobability of a enato voting to confim. The peence of a canal, howeve, oe not have a ignificant effect, uggeting that a nominee quality i picking up the effect that a canal might othewie have. (canal i negative an ignificant in each moel when lack of quality i omitte.) Inceae inteet goup activity alo lowe the pobability of a yea vote. Finally, while move-the-meian i tatitically inignificant in the egula logit, it i negative an ignificant in Moel (2) an (3), uggeting that enato o evaluate the nominee potential impact on the Cout meian. Tuning to the effect of ieological itance, the coefficient on the itance meaue give the aveage effect of each itance aco all nomination. TABLE 1 Moel of the Pobability of enato uppoting a Nominee egula Logit (1) Coef. (.E.) Vaying Intecept (2) Coef. (.E.) Vaying Intecept, Vaying lope (3) Coef. (.E.) (4) Coef. (.E.) Intecept 5.89* (.71) 10.48* (0.89) 9.07* (.85) 6.54* (.52) Lack of quality -4.33* (1.04) -9.33* (2.45) -6.50* (1.80) -5.53* (1.54) canal (0.70) 0.34 (1.50) 0.51 (1.10).38 (.95) Inteet goup a -.48* (.10) -1.05* (0.40) -0.75* (0.26) -.65* (.25) Move-the-meian (2.06) -3.38* (1.49) -8.01* (2.18) -5.82* (2.06) enato-nominee itance, fit imenion -5.08* (0.81) -6.87* (0.42) -6.51* (1.26) -6.10* (1.03) enato-nominee itance, econ imenion (0.25) -0.66* (0.10) 0.61 (0.62).58 (.60) enato-nominee itance, fit imenion 3 lack of quality * (3.18) enato-nominee itance, fit imenion 3 inteet goup -1.86* (.67) t. ev. of intecept t. ev. of 1t-imenion anom effect t. ev. of 2n-imenion anom effect N 3,922 3,922 3,922 3,922 % yea vote % coectly claifie, all vote % yea vote, non-voice vote % coectly claifie, non-voice vote Numbe of nay vote % coectly claifie, nay vote Note: ee Figue 4 fo epiction of the vaying an lope fom Moel (3). a Inteet goup ivie by 10 in the ata. *p,.05.

11 change an continuity in upeme cout confimation voting 293 Unupiingly, the coefficient on the fit-imenion itance i negative an tatitically ignificant. Fo the econ imenion, while the coefficient i negative an tatitically ignificant in the econ moel, it i eentially zeo in Moel (1) an (3). In aition, even in Moel (2) the magnitue of the coefficient on the econ imenion i wafe by that of the fit imenion. Thu, we conclue that ieological iffeence between enato annomineeonthefitimenionofameicanpolitic ha playe a much moe impotant ole in confimation politic. Aveage effect, howeve, potentially mak impotant vaiation aco time. To ae thi iue, we can gaphically exploe the vaying lope on both itance etimate aco time. The panel in Figue 4A epict the vaying lope fo ieological itance fo each nominee, fo both imenion that i, whethe the nominee-pecific lope (o anom effect, in tem of a logit coefficient) eviate fom the aveage effect aco all nominee (which i -6.5 fo the fit imenion an zeo fo the econ imenion). The point epict the vaying lope; open cicle enote voice vote, while oli cicle epict oll-call vote. Vetical line epict 95% confience inteval. If a nominee ha a ignificantly negative vaying-lope coefficient, then ieological itance ha a geate than aveage effect; conveely, if the vaying-lope coefficient wa ignificantly poitive, then itance ha a malle than aveage effect on voting. Unupiingly, none of the vaying lope fo voice vote nominee ae tatitically iffeent fom zeo, given thee i no vaiation in the epenent vaiable in thee vote. We can now etun to the quetion of whethe acial conieation playe a ignificant ole in confimation politic in the ea we woul expect them to the 1950 an 1960 even when we account fo othe facto that influence voting on nominee. The bottom gaph in Figue 4A epict the anom FIGUE 4 The Vaying Effect of Ieology ove Time, on the Fit an econ imenion eviation fom aveage effect Bown Fit imenion 1970 (Aveage effect = 6.5) eviation fom aveage effect Black ee Fankfute ougla Muphy Byne tone (CJ) Jackon utlege Buton Vinon Clak Minton Waen Halan Bennan Whittake tewat White Golbeg Fota (AJ) Mahall Buge Haynwoth Cawell Blackmun Powell ehnq. (AJ) teven O Conno ehnq. (CJ) calia Bok Kenney oute Thoma Ginbug Beye obet Alito otomayo Kagan = voice vote Bown econ imenion Black ee Fankfute ougla Muphy Byne tone (CJ) Jackon utlege Buton Vinon Clak Minton Waen Halan Bennan Whittake tewat White Golbeg Fota (AJ) Mahall Buge Haynwoth Cawell Blackmun Powell ehnq. (AJ) teven O Conno ehnq. (CJ) calia Bok Kenney oute Thoma Ginbug Beye obet Alito otomayo Kagan 1970 (Aveage effect = 0) Note: The point epict the vaying lope fo ieological itance fo each nominee, fo both imenion. Each etimate (i.e., logit coefficient) give the nominee-pecific eviation fom the aveage effect fo both imenion, which i negative an tatitically ignificant fo the fit imenion an zeo fo the econ imenion. Open cicle enote voice vote, oli cicle oll-call vote. Vetical line epict 95% confience inteval. All etimate bae on Moel (3) in Table 1.

12 294 chale m. cameon, jonathan p. katellec, an jee-kwang pak effect fo the econ-imenion itance aco time. Impotantly, the only ea in which we ee ytematically ignificant negative effect on the econ-imenion itance i fo nominee appointe fom 1955 to 1970 (a inicate by the hae egion). Fo all five nominee who eceive a oll-call vote an face ignificant oppoition in thi peio (Jutice Buge an Blackmun eceive thee an zeo nay vote, epectively), the vaying lope on the econ-imenion itance i negative an tatitically ignificant; enato who wee itant fom the nominee on thi imenion wee le likely to vote to confim thoe nominee. We ee paticulaly lage negative lope fo Halan, tewat, an Mahall,whichiconitentwiththeevienceonthe cutting line peente ealie. Thu, we conclue that attitue towa the acial libealim of the nominee wee highly influential in confimation politic in thi peio. Tuning to the top gaph in Figue 4, we can ee that the effect of fit-imenion itance ha been faily contant ove time, with few tatitically ignificant eviation fom the aveage effect. Many of the nominee with moe negative econ-imenion coefficient in the 1950 an 1960 ha moe poitive fit-imenion coefficient. Howeve, the lack of an oveall ten oe not imply that ieological iffeence have a contant impact aco time. Becaue ieological polaization inceae amatically in the enate, even if the effect of ieological itance on the pimay imenion wa contant, the inceae in enate polaization woul till lea to moe vote againt confimation ove time, ince moe enato will be ieologically itant fom the nominee. Thi change coul have been mitigate if peient electe moe moeate nominee but they i not. Thi fact make the following patten even moe tiking. A inicate in the econ hae egion in the top panel of Figue 4, the lat thee nominee to the Cout (Alito, otomayo, an Kagan) all have vaying lope on fit-imenion itance that ae ignificantly moe negative than the aveage effect. Thi inicate that ieological itance playe a heightene ole in enatoial evaluation of thee nominee. Alo, examining the vaying intecept fom Moel (3) which captue aveage vaiation aco nominee that i not accounte fo by the othe peicto in the moel eveal that all thee eceive fewe yea vote than thei oveall pofile of covaiate woul ugget. Taken togethe, thee eult may point to the emegence of an ea in which ieology play an even geate ole in enato evaluation of nominee than wa tue in the pat. Finally, Moel 4 i imila to Moel 3, but it alo exploe the poibility of an inteactive effect between ieological itance on the fit imenion an both nominee quality an inteet goup involvement. (In thi moel, we cente lack of quality an inteet goup at zeo, o that the main effect on the itance meaue i intepetable a the effect of each when thoe two vaiable ae at thei mean value.) A in the othe moel, the main effect on lack of quality, inteet goup, an fit-imenion itance ae negative an tatitically ignificant. In aition, the coefficient on both inteaction ae negative an tatitically ignificant, meaning that ieological itance between a enato an a nominee lea to an even geate eceae in the pobability of a yea vote when a nominee i of lee quality o when inteet goup mobilize. Peient, of coue, can chooe high-quality nominee to hea off oppoition, but inteet goup mobilization appea to be a pemanent featue of moen confimationpolitic(ifofvayingintenity).thecombination of polaize politic an inceae inteet goup mobilization lea to even geate contentioune. Tuning to moel pefomance, the bottom ow of Table 1 peent infomation on the pecentage of vote coectly claifie. All fou moel coectly claify moe than 90% of the vote, with the vayingintecept, vaying-lope moel pefoming bet (an equally well). Howeve, ince 87% of the vote in ou ample wee to confim the nominee, thi metic i not vey ueful. Fo one, no moel i neee to claify the voice vote coectly. The penultimate ow examine only nominee with oll-call vote; hee 79% of the vote wee fo confimation. Moel pefomance op lightly, but all fou moel till offe a ignificant impovement ove the moal peiction of yea. The tonget tet i how well each moel claifie the 511 nay vote that wee cat. Hee we ee a lage iffeence: while the egula logit baely oe bette than gueing, the thee multilevel moel offe a lage impovement, with the vaying-intecept, vaying-lope moel coectly claifying 82% of nay vote coectly (giving thee moel an oveall claification ucce ate of 96%). The ubtantive Effect of Inteet Goup Activity, enate Polaization, an Nominee Extemim To analyze the ubtantive effect of the ouce of inceae contentioune icue in the econ ection, we ceate countefactual cenaio e.g., uppoe peient ha conitently nominate ieological moeate an then peict each enato vote in each nomination une the aume cenaio. Aggegating

13 change an continuity in upeme cout confimation voting 295 ove enato yiel an etimate pecent of nay vote fo each nomination, an compaion aco cenaio inicate each facto elative contibution to inceae macocontentioune ove time. We note that vaying jut one facto, like enate polaization, i quite atificial ince the facto iving enate polaization pobably contibute to inceae inteet goup mobilization an the election of ieologically exteme nominee a well. In aition, the magnitue of the change we imulate ae lage. Accoingly, even when we vay eveal facto imultaneouly, we o not claim the cenaio ae plauible altenative to the hitoical eality. athe, we ue the cenaio a an accounting evice to ientify the mot conequential contibuto to the inceae contentioune of confimation voting ove time. Table 2 iplay the eult of thee imulation, which ae bae on the paamete etimate fom Moel (3) in Table 1. A baeline, Column (1) an (2) iplay the actual pecentage of nay vote fo each nominee an the pecentage of nay vote peicte by Moel (3). We can ee that the moel cloely tack the actual pecentage of nay vote an i neve off by moe than 10 pecentage point. Column (3) in Table 2 ak what woul have happene if all ele unchange inteet goup ha echewe involvement in upeme Cout nomination. Thi cenaio implie little change in the pe-1967 peio (compae Column 2 an 3). Thi eflect the eath of inteet goup mobilization in that ea. In the peio, howeve, the cenaio implie lage change. Etimate nay vote op moe than 15% fo the nomination of Clement Haynwoth, obet Bok, Claence Thoma, an amuel Alito. Oveall, quiecent inteet goup woul have epee etimate of oveall contentioune in the late peio fom 20% to 15%. The econ countefactual, peente in Column (4), aume all ele emaine the ame but the enate ha emaine unpolaize. Moe pecifically, the cenaio aume the elatively non-polaize 83 enate of 1954 ha been in place fo all nomination. Thi enate wa compoe of 47 emocat, 48 epublican, an one Inepenent, a emakably even patian balance. Moeove, the ieal point of the enato (in the fit imenion) followe a unimoal itibution a hap contat to the peent-ay bimoal itibution. In the pe-1967 peio, the moel ugget a le maively emocatic enate than pevaile in 1937 might have vote in geate oppoition to the extemely libeal, canal-plague Hugo Black. Conveely, tewat an Minton woul have face le oppoition. But the change in the peio ae even moe amatic. A non-polaize, evenly balance enate ugget the pobable confimation of Haynwoth, Cawell, an Bok, a le contentiou confimation fo Thoma, an a elatively outine confimation fo ehnquit to become Chief Jutice. Oveall, the etimate contentioune in thi peio fall fom 21% to 15%. The thi cenaio, peente in Column (5), keep all ele the ame but fo each nominee ubtitute the ieology on both imenion of a moeate nominee (that of Chief Jutice tone, whoe NP coe on both imenion i about 0). The moeate nominee cenaio implie amatic change in both peio. The moel ugget none of the nomination pio to the Bown eciion woul have been contentiou, with only Black, Minton, an tewat eceiving nay vote. In late yea, all nominee woul be eaily confime, with only Haynwoth, Cawell, Bok, Alito an Kagan eceiving moe than 10 oppoing vote. The final column in Table 2 put all thee countefactual togethe: what woul happen with no inteet goup activity, a non-polaize enate, an a moeate nominee. Une thi cenaio, upeme Cout nomination woul be nealy completely fee of ient, with on aveage only one nay vote. In um, we conclue that the moe-than-oubling in contentioune of enate voting on upeme Cout nomination wa iven pimaily by the combination of moe exteme nominee an an inceaingly polaize enate. Inteet goup activity alo contibute, but to a lee extent. icuion an Concluion What oe ou analyi of 70 yea of enate voting eveal about change an continuity not only in confimation voting itelf but in Ameican politic moe boaly? In ou view, change in enate confimation voting highlight o illutate thee boae topic: the changing impact of ace in Ameican politic; the inteet goup-ification of Ameican politic; an, the ieological polaization of Ameican political elite. Finally, the imulation we peent aie iue about the nom of confimation an the moeating o centipetal tenencie of Ameican political intitution. ace. A pominent fining fom the empiical analyi i the hifting impact of economic an ace within enato voting calculu on upeme Cout nominee. A we icue above, Figue 3 how clealy that economic iue wee cental in the oll-call vote on nominee fom the 1930 an Thi fining i haly a upie in light of the Cout ole in fit oppoing, then uppoting, New eal legilation that vatly expane the feeal peence in the economy. Hence, the fit imenion

14 296 chale m. cameon, jonathan p. katellec, an jee-kwang pak TABLE 2 Actual Nay Vote an Peiction of the Pecentage of Nay Vote, by Nominee, une Vaiou Countefactual cenaio Yea Nominee (1) Actual Pecent of No Vote (2) Moel Peiction (3) No Inteet Goup Activity (4) Non-Polaize enate (5) Moeate Nominee (6) No Goup, Non-Polaize, Moeate Nominee 1937 Black ee Fankfute ougla Muphy Byne tone (CJ) Jackon utlege Buton Vinon Clak Minton Waen Halan Bennan Whittake tewat White Golbeg Fota (AJ) Mahall Buge Haynwoth Cawell Blackmun Powell ehnquit (AJ) teven O Conno ehnquit (CJ) calia Bok Kenney oute Thoma Ginbug Beye obet Alito otomayo Kagan Mean, all yea Mean, pe Mean, pot Note: ee text fo etail.

15 change an continuity in upeme cout confimation voting 297 of the W-NOMINATE pace captue enatoial evaluation of nominee uing the New eal an ealy pot-new eal peio. 7 But, in the wake of the upeme Cout 1954 Bown eciion, acial libealim an conevatim aume cente tage. A a eult, the econ W-NOMINATE imenion often ominate enato voting calculation in thi peio. Concetely, thi meant that economically libeal outhen emocat woul often vote againt a upeme Cout nominee they peceive a a acial libeal. Beginning about 1970, howeve, the fit imenion, libealim-conevatim, eaete itelf. Of coue acial libealim emaine impotant in nomination politic (Oveby et al. 1992). In aition, new ocial iue, uch a abotion, playe an inceaingly impotant ole. But, thee iue fole into the pimay libealim-conevatimimenioninameican politic o that the fit imenion inceaingly captue enatoial evaluation (Poole an oenthal 1997). How the fit imenion came to epeent not jut economic but acial an ocial libealim a well i an impotant theme in Ameican politic ince the 1970 (McCaty, Poole, an oenthal 2006). A i well-known, a key pat of the toy involve the enty of outhen Black into the electoate a a conequence of the 1964 Voting ight Act. A a eult, emocatic enato fom the outh inceaingly eemble emocatic enato fom the Noth, the epublican Paty evive in the outh, an outhen epublican enato tene to be both economic an acial conevative (Black an Black 2002). The changing ole of the two NOMINATE imenion in confimation voting eflect thi poce unfoling ove time. The en eult i that the left-ight imenion now involving a melange of economic, ocial, an acial iue ominate contempoay nomination politic. Inteet Goup. The empiical eult alo highlight the changing ole of inteet goup in Ameican politic. A hown in Figue 1E, inteet goup mobilization uing nomination ha inceae geatly ince about Pio to then, lage-cale inteet goup mobilization wa a aity. Afte that ate, an epecially afte the Bok nomination of 1987, lage-cale mobilization became almot outine. The timing of heightene inteet goup mobilization oughly tack ata on the gowth of oganize inteet in Wahington (chlozman 2010). Thi gowth eem to have been a legacy of ocial movement in the 1960 an 1970 an the expane ole of govenment in the 1960 an 1970 (Boye 2008; Phillip-Fein 2009). An impotant 7 An exception wa the nomination of Hugo Black, a outhen libeal who wa a fome membe of the Ku Klux Klan. evelopment fo upeme Cout nomination wa the avent of a elf-conciouly conevative legal movement (Tele 2008). The imulation how that the new wave of inteet goup mobilization ha a tangible impact on confimation voting. Fit, heavy goup mobilization eeme iectly to alte enatoial evaluation of nominee (ee Moel 3 in Table 1). In aition, Moel 4 povie uppot fo the iea that inteet goup mobilization inceae even futhe the impotance of ieology in enatoial evaluation. Beyon thee effect, the empiical eult hint at impotant iniect effect. Inteet goup mobilization i pobably implicate in the moe fequent almot outine accuation of canal o miconuct that now og nominee. Inteet goup concen an mobilization may alo be implicate in peiential election of nominee, epecially peiential eciion to echew centit nominee in favo of one moe palatable to inteet goup activit. Moe boaly, inteet goup involvement may efame nomination fom a elatively nonpatian, meit-oiente poce into a highly patian ieological one (Lee 2009). A a eult of thi efaming, upeme Cout nomination now eemble bief political campaign. Although peculative, thee conjectue about the iniect effect of inteet goup activity an the eulting ive to tun nomination into political campaign uely eeve moe ytematic empiical invetigation. Tanem Polaization. A i well known, an a hown in Figue 1B, the enate ha become vatly moe polaize than it wa in the 1940 an But equally tiking i the inceae polaization of upeme Cout nominee put fowa by peient, epecially epublican peient ince about 1970 (ee Figue 2A). A meaue in the fit W- NOMINATE imenion, centit nominee have lagely vanihe. The contat with the 1940 an 1950 i amatic. In hot, upeme Cout nomination eveal not jut one polaization but two: a tanem polaization in both the enate an the nominee. Obviou quetion ae: What ae the caue of the tanem polaization? An, what ae the conequence? The caue of congeional polaization ae hotly ebate an, we think it fai to ay, a conenu emain eluive (Quik 2011). Much le icue i the othe half of the tanem polaization evient in upeme Cout nomination, the ieological polaization of the nominee. On the one han, peiential election of elatively exteme upeme Cout nominee may not be upiing ince it i conitent with a pictue of ieologically iven peient. Inee, agena-iven peient ae a majo