Wage regulation and the quality of police officer recruits. Rowena Crawford (joint work with Richard Disney) WPEG Conference, 28 th July 2015,

Transcription

1 Wage egulation and the quality of police office ecuits Rowena Cawfod (joint wok with Richad Disney) WPEG Confeence, 28 th July 2015,

2 Motivation Pay ates fo public secto wokes often set nationally 1. Implies spatial vaiation in public secto pay diffeentials elative to pivate secto outside options Might expect woke quality to be lowe whee elative pay is lowe Existing liteatue: Bojas (2002); Dal Bo, Finan and Rossi (2013); Hoxby and Leigh (2004); Poppe and Van Reenan (2010); Poppe and Bitton (2012) 2. Implies wages cannot adjust to compensate fo spatial vaiation in the disamenity of woking in the public secto Might expect woke quality to be lowe whee disamenity is highe Existing liteatue: Rosen (1986); Roback (1982, 1988); Di Tommaso, Stom, Saethe (2009)

3 This pape Utilises a unique dataset to analyse the impact of centally egulated pay on the quality of police ecuits in England and Wales Contibutions: Conside both channels: spatial vaiation in outside labou maket options and spatial vaiation in the disamenity of policing Novel data (individual test scoes fom the national assessment taken by applicants to the police) povides diect measue of quality

4 Context 43 police foces opeating at the county o metopolitan level Pay scales set at the national level (small adjustment in London) Aveage pecentile of police in local houly wage distibution: Popotion of cime that is violence (with o without) injuy: South Yokshie

5 The police ecuitment pocedue Individual applies Individual applies Police foce A Police foce B Rejected National Assessment Rejected

6 The Police SEARCH (R) Assessment Cente (Stuctued Entance Assessment fo Recuiting Constables Holistically) Made compulsoy acoss foces in 2004 to intoduce a level of consistency in ecuitment acoss England and Wales 9 execises 7 competency aeas

7 The police ecuitment pocedue Individual applies Individual applies Police foce A Police foce B Rejected National Assessment Fail Pass Employed by foce A Employed by foce B Rejected Not employed Ou data Infomation on 41,000 candidates who took the national assessment in (2007), 2008, 2009, (2010) : -Submitting foce -Pass/Fail and test scoes -Chaacteistics (age, sex, ethnicity, pio police expeience (e.g. PCSO), othe wok expeience)

8 Popotion of candidates Popotion of candidates Popotion of candidates Popotion of candidates Distibution of candidate test scoes (2008) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Witten scoe (pecent) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Oal scoe (pecent) Respect fo ace and divesity scoe (pecent) Oveall scoe (pecent) To pass post-nov 2007: Oal>=50%, Witten >=44%, RFD>=50%, Oveall>=50% (To pass pe-nov 2007: Oal>=60%, Witten>=44%, RFD>=60%, Oveall>=60%)

9 Candidate chaacteistics associated with scoes Witten scoe Oal scoe RFD scoe Oveall scoe P(pass) ** * ** ** ** 1.082** 1.332** ** ** ** 1.576** ** Age 1.224** 0.558** 1.045** 0.930** 0.038** Age squaed ** ** ** ** ** Male ** ** ** ** ** GCSEs 1.840** 1.082** * A levels 5.933** 1.736** 1.813** 2.397** 0.098** Gaduate 9.767** 2.381** 3.303** 4.491** 0.168** Expeience: PCSO 2.685** 2.006** 3.902** 4.003** 0.132** Expeience: SC 3.120** 1.473** 2.682** 2.860** 0.092** Mixed white ** ** * * Asian ** ** ** ** ** Afican ** ** ** ** ** Chinese ** ** * ** ** Othe ** ** ** ** ** Missing ** ** ** ** Constant ** ** ** 0.176** Note: Baseline is 2007, female, <GCSE qualifications, no pio police expeience, white ethnicity. Sample size: 41,485. **,* indicates significance at the 1%,5% level.

10 Empiical stategy Q i ln( W / W ) A P O X i [1] Q i is applicant quality measued using candidate test scoe at national assessment W P is local police wage; W O is local outside wage A ae measues of the local disamenity of policing Cimes pe 1000 population, popotion of cime accounted fo by: theft, ciminal damage, dom. buglay, non-dom buglay, public ode offences, dugs, shoplifting, vehicle cime, violence without injuy, violence with injuy X ae local aea chaacteistics Educational composition of population, unemployment ate, house pices τ ae time dummies

11 Measuing the elative wage P O What is ln( W / W )? Assume applicants motivated by how police wages compae to aveage wages acoss all employees in thei local aea Ideally estimate: ln W X F P PF [2] i, and use estimated θ 3, fo the elative wage in egion Difficult to find a dataset with sufficient sample size at local level If police wage genuinely national, θ 3, = θ 1, and can simply estimate i 1, 2 i 3, ln W F [3] i, X i 1, and use - θ 1, fo the elative wage in egion i i P ln( W / W i O )

12 Dyfed Powys Devon and Conwall Cumbia Humbeside Duham Cleveland Nofolk West Mecia South Yokshie Noth Wales Gwent Noth Yokshie Doset South Wales Lancashie Debyshie Nothumbia Lincolnshie Staffodshie Meseyside Nottinghamshie Gloucesteshie Suffolk Someset and Avon West Midlands West Yokshie Leicesteshie Geate Mancheste Sussex Cheshie Hampshie Wawickshie Wiltshie Kent Nothamptonshie Bedfodshie Essex Cambidgeshie Thames Valley Suey Hetfodshie London Met Foce aea fixed effect on log elative wage Measuing the elative wage Estimate [3] using data fom the Labou Foce Suvey Pool 2005 to 2010; estimate police foces using local authoity aeas Sample: all employees aged X contols: sex, (age, age2 X education), ethnicity, time 0.30 Test sensitivity to: 0.25 Estimating 0.20 [3] using only employees aged Estimating 0.10 [3] using only employees in compaable occupations 0.05 Estimating 0.00 [2] to get θ 3, using data fom the Annual Suvey of Hous and Eanings

13 Association of outside wage and applicant quality Q P O ln( W / W ) A Recall: i i X Witten communication (%) Oal communication (%) Respect fo Race and Divesity (%) Oveall (%) P.(Pass) ln( P O W / W ) 1, (2.824)*** (0.446)*** (0.517)*** (0.620)*** London (0.761) % with degee (0.063)*** % with A-levels (0.120)* % with no qualifications (0.076)*** Unemployment ate (0.094)*** Av. house pice (,000s) (0.008)*** Sample size: 41,485. **,* indicates significance at the 1%,5% level. OLS (columns 2-4) and LPM (column 5).

14 Association of outside wage and applicant quality Q P O ln( W / W ) A Recall: i i X Witten communication (%) Oal communication (%) Respect fo Race and Divesity (%) Oveall (%) P.(Pass) ln( P O W / W ) 1, (2.824)*** (0.924)*** (1.350)*** (1.029)*** (0.060)* (0.446)*** (0.159) (0.217)*** (0.160) (0.009)* (0.517)*** (0.178)*** (0.242)*** (0.191)*** (0.011)*** (0.620)*** (0.201)*** (0.274) (0.228)*** (0.013)*** London (0.761) (0.249)*** (0.338) (0.278)*** (0.015) % with degee (0.063)*** (0.018)** (0.028)*** (0.022) (0.001)** % with A-levels (0.120)* (0.038) (0.057)** (0.044) (0.003) % with no qualifications (0.076)*** (0.022) (0.034) (0.027) (0.002)** Unemployment ate (0.094)*** (0.024) (0.038)*** (0.031) (0.002) Av. house pice (,000s) (0.008)*** (0.002)*** (0.004)*** (0.003)*** (0.000)*** Sample size: 41,485. **,* indicates significance at the 1%,5% level. OLS (columns 2-4) and LPM (column 5).

15 Association of disamenity and applicant quality Witten communication (%) Oal communication (%) Respect fo Race and Divesity (%) Oveall (%) P.(Pass) P O ln( W / W ) 1, (3.838)*** (1.286)*** (1.844)*** (1.409)*** (0.080)*** Popotion of cime: Theft (0.167)*** (0.057)*** (0.079)** (0.060)** (0.003) Ciminal damage (0.156)** (0.057)*** (0.072)*** (0.058)** (0.003)* Domestic buglay (0.245)*** (0.074) (0.109)*** (0.089)*** (0.005)*** Dugs offences (0.162) (0.051) (0.072)*** (0.060)* (0.003) Non-dom. buglay (0.287)* (0.090)** (0.127)*** (0.106) (0.006) Public ode offences (0.215) (0.072)*** (0.100) (0.078)** (0.004)** Shoplifting (0.231) (0.077)*** (0.106)* (0.086) (0.005) Vehicle offences (0.151)** (0.051)*** (0.070)*** (0.058) (0.003) Violence without injuy (0.204) (0.070)*** (0.094)*** (0.075) (0.004)* Violence with injuy (0.356)*** (0.120)*** (0.165)*** (0.128)*** (0.008)*** Cime pe 1000 head (0.214)** (0.068) (0.096)*** (0.081)*** (0.004)*** Regessions also contol fo time, London, and local education composition, unemployment ate and house pices. Sample size: 41,485. **,* indicates significance at the 1%,5% level. OLS (columns 2-4) and LPM (column 5).

16 Impact on the composition of applicants To what extent does the impact on quality manifest itself though obsevable chaacteistics of candidates? Contolling fo applicant chaacteistics (age, sex, education, ethnicity) makes elatively little diffeent to estimated coefficients Suggests most of the impact is coming fom unobsevable quality Association with applicant chaacteistics: Highe outside wage associated with lowe aveage age of applicants, and smalle popotion who ae female o white Highe popotion of cime being violent associated with smalle popotion of applicants who ae white o have A-levels o above

17 Conclusions National police pay scales do esult in geogaphical vaiation in the quality of police applicants Highe elative wage associated with highe quality candidates Geate disamenity of policing is assoicated with lowe quality candidates Both effects ae impotant In this case offsetting: effect of highe elative wage patially offsets effect of lowe attactiveness of policing in some aeas Lagely manifested though unobsevable chaacteistics Howeve magnitude of effects elatively small Implies 5ppt diffeence in oveall scoe between Hetfodshie and Dyfed Powys fom diffeent elative wage Futue wok equied to exploe impacts of police office quality on police poductivity