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1 THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 147 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD 234 Front Street San Francisco. CA 4111 (4) FAX (4) COPYRIGHT 12 By THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION By SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release Release Date: BOXER'S ONCE COMMANDING 22-POINT IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is LEAD NOW DOWN TO ONE POINT. subject to revocation if publication or FEINSTEIN MAINTAINING FOURTEEN broadcast takes place before release date or POINT LEAD OVER SEYMOUR. if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. By Mervin Field and Mark DiCamillo (ISSN ) While Dianne Feinstein is holding on to a fourteen-point preference margin in her Senatorial race against John Seymour (50% to 36%), the large lead which Barbara Boxer once had over Bruce Herschenson has collapsed to just one point ( to 43%) in the closing days of the campaign. Feinstein - Seymour Seymour is the Republican incumbent appointed by Governor Pete Wilson in January of 11 to fill the unexpired term which Wilson vacated after being elected Governor. It has been called the "two-year Senate seat," since the winner's term will expire in January 15. The level of voter support achieved by Seymour in nine Field Poll measurements taken during the past seventeen months has held virtually constant in the 35 % to 38 % range, and has never approached that of Democrat Feinstein, which has ranged from 44 % to 57 %. The Field (Caiifornia) Poll has operated continuously since 147 as an independent and impartial public opinion news service. The Poll is one of ti~e services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of its survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives support from academic, government, media, and private sources.

2 ... The Field Poll Page 2 Feinstein Seymour Undecided Late October '2 50% Early October '2 51 % September '2 57% 37 6 July'2 55% 37 8 May'2 56% 35 March '2 4% 35 January'2 50% 38 September ' June '1 51% 37 September and October '2 measures are based on likely voters only. Previous measures are of all registered voters. Boxer-Herschensohn Boxer, the Democrat, and Herschensohn, the Republican, both won highly contested primary elections last June. Prior to the primary, Boxer and Herschensohn were closely divided in voter preferences in Field Poll simulations of a general election contest. However, following the primary election, Boxer moved ahead of Herschensohn by 18 points in July and by 22 points in September. In early October that lead was halved to eleven points and is now down to just one point in this survey which was completed six days before the election. The winner will be elected for a full six-year term. Tltbl~2 Pt~fereJlce'l'ten(tsil1jlo ~rill~~l1ep$ob.n'(1~s. sejlatera~~ Late October '2 Early October '2 September '2 July '2 May'2 March '2 January'2 September '1 June '1 Boxer Herschensohn Undecided 43 47% % 33 4% % " 27 35% % September and October '2 measures are based on likely voters only. Previous measures are of all registered voters.

3 Page 3 Candidate Images The Senatorial campaigns do not seem to have improved the perceptions that the voters have of the candidates. Most striking are the changes in voter impressions of Boxer. In July Boxer's image was 44 % favorable and 27 % unfavorable. Now, her image among statewide voters is nearly reversed 44 % unfavorable and 36 % favorable. While more people now know something Herschensohn than they did last July, his image prome remains generally negative - 41 % unfavorable and 33 % favorable. Seymour's image, which was somewhat positive in July (30% favorable to 23 % unfavorable), has now become decidedly negative ( unfavorable and 25% favorable) as he has become better known. Feinstein was the best known of the four candidates at the start of the campaign in the summer and had a decidedly positive image at that time (57% favorable and 36% unfavorable). Now, almost as many view her negatively as positively - 46% favorable and 42% unfavorable. Feinstein ' '...,...\... - ' Table - ; $ ,..,.".-., -.' ".",'.. ~r~ij~l#.i~~6t$~lia~c;llldidates Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Late October 46% 42 Early October 50% 35 September 54% July 57% 36 7 Seymour Boxer Late October 25% Early October 25% September 26% July 30% Late October 36% Early October 40% September 46% July 27 2 Herschensohn Late October 33% Early October 26% September 23% 3 38 July 22% September and October measures based on likely voters only. July measure based on all registered voters.

4 Friday, Ocrober30, 12 Page 4 Partisan, Reeional Differences To date there has been a relative stability in voter preferences in the Feinstein-Seymour race. However, the Boxer-Herschensohn race has been much more dynamic. Comparing the partisan and regional differences of the two races reveals the following: 1. Feinstein captures a greater proportion of Democrats (72%) than does Boxer (66%). In addition, Feinstein is attracting slightly more Republican voters than is Boxer (23 % to 1 %) 2. In Los Angeles County Feinstein holds a 26-point bulge over Seymour and a -point lead in San Diego County. Boxer's lead over Herschensohn in L.A. County is 17 points and she is behind in San Diego County by four points. 3. In the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, Feinstein has a huge 43-point lead over Seymour, while Boxer's lead is 31 points. In the Central Valley, Feinstein and Seymour run even, while Boxer trails Herschensohn in this area by 21 points. Effect of Gender Feinstein has a very large lead over Seymour among women (51 % to 33%) and a smaller but still significant preference margin among men (4 % to 3 %). However, the gender gap is most pronounced in the Boxer-Herschensohn race. While Boxer leads Herschensohn 47% to among women, she trails her opponent among men (42% to 48%).

5 Page 5 Feinstein Seymour Undecided Statewide 50% Region Los Angeles County San Diego County Orange County Desert Counties Central Valley Central Coast San Francisco Bay Area North Coast I Sierras * 55% 48% 43% 31 % 67% 46% Party Democrats Republicans Others 72% 23% 52% Gender Men Women 4% 51 % 3 33 Gender by Party Democratic men Democratic women Republican men Republican women 70% 74% 24% 21 % * very small sample bases

6 Page 6 Herschensohn Undecided Statewide 43 Region Los Angeles County San Diego County Orange County Desert Counties Central Valley Central Coast San Francisco Bay Area North Coast / Sierras * 52% 32% 2% 35% 34% 57% Party Democrats Republicans Others 66% 1% Gender Men Women 42% 47% Gender by Party Democratic men Democratic women Republican men Republican women 64% 67% 18% 20% * very small sample bases -30

7 Page 7 Infonnation About the Survey Sample Details The survey was conducted October 25-28, 12 among a random statewide sample of 1,106 Californians likely to vote in this year's general election. Interviewing was conducted by telephone using randomdigit dialing methods. The sample sizes of subgroups reported in this release are as follows: L.A. (270), San Diego (7), Orange (6), Desert Counties (4), Central Valley (6), Central Coast (83), San Francisco Bay Area (256), North Coast I Sierras (40), urban (25), suburban (608), rural (202),. Democrats (533), Republicans (443), others (2), strong conservative (201), moderately conservative (172), middle-of-the-road (484), moderately liberal (1), strong liberal (105), men (532), women (574), white non-hispanic (854), Hispanic (3), black (66), 18-2 (223), 30-3 (27), 40-4 (250), 50-5 (5), 60 or older (218), high school or less (280), some college I trade school (458), college graduate (14), post college work (175), Protestant (488), Catholic (256), Jewish (53), other (5), no religious preference (17), under $,000 (1), $,000-$2, (225), $30,000-$4, (248), $50,000-$74, (248), and $75,000 or more (248). Estimates of sampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory 5 % of the time results from the overall likely voter sample would be accurate within ±3.1 percentage points. Percentages based on subgroups of the overall sample have a larger range of sampling error. There are many possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, sequencing or through undetected errors in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Every effort was made to minimize such non-sampling errors. Questions Asked Next, I am going to read the names of the major party candidates running for U.S. Senate in California this year. As I read each name, please tell me whether your opinion of that person is favorable, unfavorable, or whether you don't know enough about that person to have an opinion. Is your opinion of favorable or unfavorable? (SEE RELEASE FOR CANDIDATES) (NAMES ROTATED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS) As you know, there will be two elections for U.S. Senate this year in California. In one of the Senate races, Republican Bruce Herschensohn is running against Democrat Barbara Boxer. Ifthe election were being held today, who would you vote for - Herschensohn or Boxer? (IF UNDECIDED:) Suppose you had to make up your mind today, who would you prefer for U"S. Senate - Herschensohn or Boxer? In the other U.S. Senate race, Republican John Seymour is running against DemocratDianne Feinstein. Ifthe election for U.S. Senate were being held today, who would you vote for - Seymour or Feinstein? (IF UNDECIDED:) Suppose you had to make up your mind today, who would you prefer for U.S. Senate - Seymour or Feinstein?