THE INDEPE=NDEt\lT AND t\loi\h'i\flt!san SURVE:Y

Transcription

1 THE INDEPE=NDEt\lT AND t\loi\h'i\flt!san SURVE:Y OF F)LJBLlC OPIf\lION e:n!\fushl~d in! ~J7 i\s THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY l\fierv!n FiELD 550 K.earny Street,.~u\w 9UU San Francisco, C!\ 9 WU2~):) i (15) 7[)j 921 F/\X: 1'1i5; :;+'!,,1: COPYRIGHT 1995 BY THE FIELD INSTITUIE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release Release Date: Wednesday, May 2, 1995 IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or WILSON'S JOB RA T~NGS TAKE A NEGATIVE TURN. CLINTON'S HOLDING STEADY. if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field ) Californians' opinion of the job Pete Wilson is doing as Governor has taken a negative tum after a short lived rebound following his big re-election victory last fall. Residents now view the Governor's perfonnance more negatively than positively, similar to the ratings Wilson obtained throughout most of 199. President Bill Clinton continues to receive a more positive than negative appraisal from the California public, whereas opinions of U.S. Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer are about evenly divided. These are some of the fmdings from the latest Field Poll of Californians conducted May 1 - among a representative sample of 1,008 adults. Appraisal of Governor Wilson One of the unusual aspects of last year's gubernatorial election campaign which resulted in a landslide victory Wilson over Democrat Kathleen Brown was that in the two years prior to the election Wilson was regularly receiving negative job perfonnance ratings. Despite this lack of enthusiasm for Wilson's job perfonnance, Field Poll surveys during the campaign found more voters preferring him as Governor than Brown. One clear reason for this seeming paradox was that voters displayed an even more negative view of the Democratic candidate.,".the Field (California) [:Jail has operated continuously since 197 as an independent and impartial public opinion news service. The Poil is one of the services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of its survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives support from academic, government, media, and private sources.

2 The Field Poll Wednesday, May 2, 1995 Page 2 While Wilson's ratings took a tum for the better early this year, they now have reversed and are about as negative as they were last fall just before the election. At present, % rate Wilson's perfonnance good or very good, % give him a fair assessment, while 7% feel he is doing a poor or very poor job. May '95 Feb '95 Oct '9 Sept '9 July '9 May '9 April '9 Table 1 Trend of Wilson's job perfonnance ratings as Governor Very good/ Poor! Good Fair very poor % 7 Jan. '9 (post-quake) Jan. '9 (pre-quake) Oct '9 Aug '9 May '9 (worst rating) Feb '9 Sept '92 July '92 May '92 March '92 Jan '92 Sept '91 June '91 Feb '91 (best rating) % 2% % 2% % % 0% 25% 21% % 15% 25% 19% 20% 0% % % 29% % % No opinion

3 Wednesday, The Field Poll May 2, 1995 Page Clinton job performance While national polls during the past year have shown a great deal of fluctuation in President Clinton's job perfonnance ratings, the view that Californians have had of him has been remarkably stable. The 7% proportion of people in this state currently rating Clinton's job perfonnance as good or very good, has deviated only a little in eight different Field Polls taken in 199 and The 2% who now say he is doing a poor or very poor job is close to the average proportion that Clinton has received throughout 199 and Another 8% currently rate his perfonnance as fair. Table 2 Trend of Clinton's job perfonnance ratings as President Very good! Poor! No ~ Fair very poor opinion May '95 7% Feb '95 % Oct '9 5% Sept '9 2% 1 July '9 5% 5 2 May '9 8% 8 2 April '9 % 21 Jan '9 9% 7 20 Oct '9 8% Aug '9 27% 7 May '9 1% 7 Personal regard for Clinton While the public's personal regard for Clinton continues to be higher than the perfonnance marks they give him, the proportion of Californians who say they like him a lot or somewhat has declined over the past year. Currently % say they like Clinton a lot or somewhat, down from 5% who felt this way in April oflast year.

4 The Field Poll Wednesday, May 2, 1995 Page On the other hand, the proportion who say they dislike Clinton a lot or somewhat has not changed much and stands at 2%, similar to the kind of ratings he has received throughout most of his tenure as President Table Personal regard for President Clinton Like him Dislike him a loti Neither somewhat! somewhat like/dislike il.fut May '95 % 29 2 Feb '95 8% 0 19 Oct '9 52% 2 25 * No opinion July '9 May '9 April '9 Jan '9 50% 50% 5% 5% May '9 5% *less than one-halfofone percent Feinstein's job approval ratin:: During 199 and the ftrst half of 199, Democrat Senator Dianne Feinstein enjoyed very positive job perfonnance ratings from the public. However, these favorable ratings plunged during her bitterly fought contest with Republican Michael Huffington last year for a full six year Senate tenn. Huffington was a relatively unknown political ftgure at the start oflast year's election campaign, but spent an unprecedented $ million of his own money in an advertising campaign, largely attacking Feinstein. Her current job ratings are about evenly divided, with 1 % rating her perfonnance good or very good, 2% fair and 29% poor or very poor. Table Trend in Feinstein's ratings as U.S. Senator Very good! Poor! No good Fair very poor opinion May '95 1% Feb. '95 % 2 1 Oct '9 25% Sept. '9 1% July'9 0% 29 1 May'9 5% April '9 Jan '9 Oct '9 Aug '9 May'9 % % 29% 7% 27%

5 The Field Poll Wednesday, May 2, 1995 Page 5 Huffin~ton appraisal After losing narrowly to Feinstein in the Senate race Huffington has indicated that he is considering running for California Governor in In this survey, The Field Poll measured the public's image of Huffmgton and how inclined they would be to vote for him as a gubernatorial candidate. The results show that the public has a more negative than positive view of Huffington. About half (9%) of the public say they hold an unfavorable view of him (29% strongly unfavorable and 20% somewhat unfavorable), while a little more than one-third of the public, 7%, have a positive regard for Huffington (1% strongly favorable and 2% somewhat unfavorable). As to their present inclinations to vote for Huffmgton for Governor, 5% of registered voters say they are not inclined, % say they would be inclined and 1% don't know. Among Republicans 51 % are inclined to support a Huffington candidacy, while 7% are not inclined and 12% have no opinion. Boxer's job appraisal Democrat Barbara Boxer was elected to the U.S. Senate in Since taking office there has not been much movement in the way the public feels about the job she is doing. Table 5 Trend of Boxer's job performance ratings as U.S. Senator Very good! Poor! No eood Fair veupoor opinion May '95 27% Feb '95 25% Sept '9 2% May '9 % April '9 % 1 19 Jan '9 0% Oct '9 25% 19 Aug '9 29% May '9 %

6 The Field Poll Wednesday, May 2, 1995 Page Sample Details Information About the Survey The results in this report are based on a survey conducted May 1 -,1995 among a representative statewide sample of 1,008 California adults. The survey was completed by telephone in either English or Spanish using random digit dialing methods. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize possible respondent fatigue, the overall sample was divided into two equal-sized subsamples of 50 respondents each on some questions. Each of the questions included in this release was based on one or the other of these random subsamples. Estimates of sampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory, 95% of the time results from each adult public subsample would be accurate within +/-.5 percentage points. There are many possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, sequencing or through undetected errors or omission in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Every effort was made to minimize such errors. Questions Asked What kind of job do you think: Bill Clinton is doing as President - a very good, good, fair, poor or very poor job? Apart from the kind ofjob that you think he is doing as President, what do you personally think of Bill Clinton? Do you like him a lot, like him somewhat, neither like nor dislike him, dislike him somewhat or dislike him a lot? What kind ofjob do you think Pete Wilson is doing as Governor - poor or very poor job? What kind of job do you think Dianne Feinstein is doing as U.S. Senator - good, fair, poor or very poor job? What kind of job do you think Barbara Boxer is doing as U.S. Senator - fair, poor or very poor job? a very good, good, fair, a very good, a very good, good, As you may know, former Congressman Michael Huffmgton was the Republican nominee for U.S. Senator in 199, but he lost the election to Democrat Dianne Feinstein. Generally speaking, is your opinion of Michael Huffmgton favorable or unfavorable? Is it strongly or somewhat (favorable) (unfavorable)? (ASKEO OF REGISlERED VOTERS) Huffington has expressed interest in running for Governor in the next gubernatorial election in IfHuffmgton were to run, would you be inclined or not inclined to vote for him for Governor?